Motley Fool Money – December 11, 2025

Episode: "Over 300 Stocks Doubled in 2025 -- 3 We Love and 3 We Don't"

Host: Tyler Crowe
Guests: Matt Frankel, John Quost

Episode Overview

The Motley Fool Money team reviews 2025’s remarkable bull run, where over 300 publicly traded companies saw their stock prices double. The hosts each select one stock they “love” (expect to continue outperformance in 2026) and one they “don’t” (cautious about its future), offering insights into the market’s key themes—AI, energy infrastructure, and disruptive technologies. The episode wraps with each analyst sharing a stock currently on their radar.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Numbers: A Record Year for Doublers

• Over 300 companies more than doubled in 2025.
• The hosts focus on three standout companies with ongoing potential and three that may have seen their peak.

2. Three Stocks We Love for 2026

Matt Frankel: Lemonade (LMND) - InsurTech Turnaround

• Rationale: Once struggling, Lemonade achieved a 114% rally in 2025, driven by:
  • Accelerated top line growth
  • Hitting loss ratio targets (claims paid as % of premiums below 75% over 12 months)
  • Now cashflow positive; targets EBITDA break-even by end of 2026
  • Newer products like car insurance are ramping up
• Quote:

  “Lemonade's now cash flow positive and they expect to be EBITDA break even by the end of 2026. Another thing I wouldn't have believed I was saying a couple years ago.” — Matt Frankel (03:00)

• Caveat: Customer acquisition costs remain high, but larger, more profitable products (auto) could improve the economics.
• Memorable Exchange:

  “It Certainly has over the past few years. But you are right that it has been a very mild weather year. As a Florida homeowner, I'm very happy for that.” — Matt Frankel (04:50)

John Quost: Micron Technology (MU) - The AI Memory Engine

• Rationale: Traditionally cyclical and commoditized, but:
  • AI-driven demand for memory chips has outpaced supply
  • Micron is sold out for 2026, and supply tightness likely into 2027
  • Margins could reach all-time highs; trades at only 15x forward earnings
• Quote:

  “Right now the demand is beyond what the three combined can even make. So it's very interesting and very different from past cycles in the computer memory space.” — John Quost (06:06)

• AI Angle: If bullish on AI and GPU demand, must be bullish on memory.
• Quote:

  “If you're bullish on either Nvidia or AMD, I believe that you need to be bullish Micron as well because… what they are supplying… is just as important.” — John Quost (07:34)

Tyler Crowe: NextPower (NXT, formerly NextTracker) - Solar Infrastructure

• Rationale:
  • Utility-scale solar tracking and components business, crucial for AI-era energy demand
  • Fastest, cheapest power source for data centers; profitable since IPO, founder-led, reasonable 20x earnings
• Quote:

  “Solar is the fastest right now to deploy at scale... The speed to scale up power production is the fastest you’re going to see and I think those are going to be incredibly valuable traits over the next several years.” — Tyler Crowe (09:00)

• On Competitive Moat:

  “It's hard to really gain any sort of real distinct… competitive or technology advantage other than just good execution...” — Tyler Crowe (10:37)

3. Three Stocks We're Cautious On for 2026

Tyler Crowe: Oklo (OKLO) - Nuclear Power Reality Check

• Rationale:
  • Ambitious small modular nuclear reactor plan, but history and regulatory challenges in U.S. make quick deployment unlikely
  • AI's demand for 'right now' power solutions (solar, gas) won't wait for nuclear’s slow roll-out
• Quote:

  “They want the right now solution and I don't think that's going to come from nuclear.” — Tyler Crowe (13:34)

John Quost: D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) - Quantum Computing Hype

• Rationale:
  • Up over 230% in 2025 based on sentiment, not real customer adoption
  • Bookings and obligations are down, and the tech is still years away from real impact
• Quote:

  “It's been kind of commercially viable for a long time and there aren't really anything in the bookings and RPO trends that say its customers are interested today in adopting the technology.” — John Quost (16:13)

• On timeline:

  “Right now most of these players are dealing in the hundreds of qubits... you're still more than five years away from a million qubit system.” — John Quost (17:50)

Matt Frankel: Opendoor (OPEN) - iBuying's Limitations

• Rationale:
  • Despite 10x rally off lows, business still faces key profitability challenges (cost structure, automation, holding periods, interest costs)
  • Needs strong real estate market to thrive, and no one has yet proven the iBuying model at scale
• Quote:

  “Opendoor has more than quadrupled this year… Now investors seem very bullish… but the reality is that outside of an abnormally strong real estate market in 2021, we're yet to see if this model can be profitable at scale.” — Matt Frankel (19:08)

• On potential:

  "Get your cost structure a lot lower. That's really the big issue… They're holding their homes for an average of over 100 days..." — Matt Frankel (20:19)

4. Stocks on the Radar (23:35–25:13)

Tyler Crowe: EMCOR (EME)

• Large contractor for electrical, mechanical, HVAC for data centers, EV manufacturing, and semiconductor plants.
• Plays into the "picks-and-shovels" theme of AI infrastructure expansion.
• Quote:

  “This is a company that... is going into data centers. They're going into, you know, EV electrical manufacturing facilities... doing a lot of the build out... for AI... next couple of years, it looks like Emcore is going to benefit incredibly well.” — Tyler Crowe (22:20)

Matt Frankel: Disney (DIS)

• New deal with OpenAI, strong cruise and theme park business, possible streaming consolidation.
• Reasonably valued at 16x earnings, with “a collection of assets and intellectual property that, valued at 16 times earnings, is an absolute steal.”

John Quost: MercadoLibre (MELI)

• Standout in Latin American e-commerce and fintech, now piloting humanoid AI robots in logistics.
• Competitive advantage in logistics and operational autonomy.
• Quote:

  “Maybe it's nothing, but maybe it's the first step for greatly improved logistics financials.” — John Quost (24:45)

Memorable Quotes & Timestamp Highlights

• [03:00] Matt Frankel: “Lemonade's now cash flow positive and they expect to be EBITDA break even by the end of 2026. Another thing I wouldn't have believed I was saying a couple years ago.”
• [06:06] John Quost: "Right now the demand is beyond what the three [Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix] combined can even make."
• [09:00] Tyler Crowe: “Solar is the fastest right now to deploy at scale... the speed to scale up power production is the fastest you’re going to see...”
• [13:34] Tyler Crowe: “They want the right now solution and I don't think that's going to come from nuclear.”
• [16:13] John Quost: “There aren't really anything in the bookings and RPO trends that say its customers are interested today in adopting the [quantum] technology.”
• [19:08] Matt Frankel: "Opendoor has more than quadrupled this year... we're yet to see if this model can be profitable at scale."
• [24:45] John Quost: “Maybe it's nothing, but maybe it's the first step for greatly improved logistics financials.”

Episode Structure with Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | Highlights | |-----------|---------|------------| | 00:05–01:50 | Introduction | Framing the review of 2025’s top-performing stocks | | 01:51–10:55 | 3 Stocks We Love | Lemonade, Micron, NextPower discussed in depth | | 11:55–21:00 | 3 We Don’t Love | Oklo, D-Wave Quantum, Opendoor analysis and skepticism | | 22:08–25:13 | Stocks on the Radar | EMCOR (EME), Disney (DIS), MercadoLibre (MELI) featured as smart ideas for future growth |

Tone & Takeaways

• Optimistic, analytical, candid — hosts weigh hype vs. substance, focusing on business fundamentals while acknowledging short-term market sentiment.
• Persistent themes: AI buildout driving megatrends in power and memory; skepticism toward technologies (nuclear, quantum) with unclear timelines; cost and scale as recurring hurdles in disruptive business models.
• Actionable insights: Investors should distinguish between stories built on current revenue and operating improvements, and those driven mainly by speculative enthusiasm.

For listeners seeking top takeaways:
If you want long-term winners from 2025’s “doublers,” prioritize companies where cash flows and margins support the stock surge (e.g., Micron, Lemonade, NextPower). Exercise caution around narratives (e.g., quantum, nuclear, iBuying) where hype may have outpaced immediate commercial reality. And keep an eye on the under-the-radar infrastructure players supporting the AI gold rush.