Pepsi, Poppi, and the Creosote Bush

Summary

Motley Fool Money – Episode: "Pepsi, Poppi, and the Creosote Bush"

Release Date: March 17, 2025
Hosted by Dylan Lewis, Ricky Mulvey, and Mary Long

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1. Introduction

In this episode of Motley Fool Money, host Dylan Lewis engages in an insightful discussion with Motley Fool analyst David Meyer. The conversation delves into recent retail sales data, consumer spending trends, the impact of tariffs, and PepsiCo's strategic acquisition of the prebiotic soda company, Poppi. The episode provides investors with a comprehensive analysis of current market conditions and corporate strategies affecting the consumer goods sector.

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2. U.S. Retail Sales and Consumer Spending

The episode begins with an examination of the latest retail figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau. For February, retail sales increased by 0.2% compared to January, falling short of the expected 0.6% growth.

Dylan Lewis (00:28):
"We have a fun one this Monday. We got some retail numbers, not so much fun."

David Meyer (00:55):
"Yeah, so you're exactly right. 0.2% growth expectation was 0.6% though. So they were expecting after January's decline, they were, economists were expecting a pick back up in February. It did happen, just not to the extent that they wanted."

Meyer highlights that the subdued growth aligns with ongoing concerns about tight consumer spending. Recent surveys, including the University of Michigan Consumer Survey, indicate a decline in consumer confidence, primarily driven by fears of rising inflation in the latter half of 2025. Both the CEOs of Dollar General and Walmart echoed these sentiments, noting that lower-income consumers are purchasing fewer goods and seeking better value for their money.

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3. Tariffs and Inflation Concerns

The discussion transitions to the role of tariffs in exacerbating inflationary pressures. Tariffs have introduced additional costs for retailers, who are likely to pass these costs onto consumers, further straining purchasing power.

David Meyer (02:38):
"There were two, basically two of the same quotes. One from the CEO of Dollar General, one from the CEO of Walmart who said their low end consumers are extended, they're buying smaller quantities in the back half of the year. Their money's not going as far as they want."

Meyer emphasizes the uncertainty tariffs and trade wars introduce, making it challenging for businesses to plan effectively. He also points out that retailers like Best Buy are considering price increases, which could be detrimental in a market where consumers are already cautious with their spending.

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4. PepsiCo's Acquisition of Poppi

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to PepsiCo's recent acquisition of Poppi, a prebiotic soda company, for nearly $2 billion. This strategic move underscores PepsiCo's commitment to diversifying its beverage portfolio and tapping into the growing market for healthier soda alternatives.

a. Background on Poppi

David Meyer (04:37):
"Actually, no. The worst part of it is I'm actually a soda drinker from Motley fool have and said I have a problem. We've discussed this in the past. I was chided and berated for how many diet Mountain Dews I used to drink. I don't drink as many anymore."

Meyer admits unfamiliarity with Poppi but expresses interest in trying the product, highlighting its position in the market as a more natural and health-conscious alternative to traditional sodas.

b. Analysis of the Acquisition

David Meyer (07:22):
"That is incredible. Like they have done a good job of one, designing their product, marketing their product, making it available."

Meyer praises Poppi's market penetration, noting that capturing 2.7% of the carbonated beverage market within five to seven years is impressive. He attributes this success to effective product design, marketing strategies, and distribution channels.

Dylan Lewis (07:24):
"But it was like 2018."

David Meyer (07:22):
"That, that is incredible. Like they have done a good job of one, designing their product, marketing their product, making it available. Maybe it's not a surprise that Pepsi is buying them because they can, they, Pepsi can actually push this trend forward given the amazing amount of distribution that they have as well."

The acquisition allows PepsiCo to leverage its vast distribution network and substantial marketing budget to further propel Poppi's growth, positioning it strongly against competitors like Coke.

c. Strategic Implications for PepsiCo

Meyer draws parallels between PepsiCo's strategy and venture capital investment, suggesting that large corporations like PepsiCo often acquire innovative startups to enhance their product offerings and stay competitive.

David Meyer (08:14):
"They cannot develop new products. They just have amazing stable of brands. So they let the. In some sense it's almost like, it's almost like the pharmaceutical industry where you let smaller folks do the innovating and you buy them later."

He further explains that PepsiCo's support can help scale Poppi beyond its current market presence, ensuring sustained growth and market relevance.

d. Market Reaction

Following the announcement, Pepsi's shares saw a modest increase of about 2%, reflecting market approval of the acquisition. Given Pepsi's substantial market capitalization of approximately $200 billion, the $2 billion acquisition is seen as a strategic but not overly disruptive investment.

David Meyer (08:14):
"With a 2% market up, right, if, if it's 1% of the market cap, right, and it's now 2% and the market is as 2% up, essentially the market likes this acquisition. I think I do too."

Meyer concurs with the positive market sentiment, indicating confidence in the acquisition's potential to enhance PepsiCo's growth trajectory.

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5. Investment Considerations

The conversation shifts to the investment viability of mature companies like PepsiCo and Coca-Cola. Meyer describes these companies as "extremely mature" with growth rates aligning closely with GDP figures.

David Meyer (11:51):
"It's extremely mature. They're like GDP plus 1 to 2% type growth. The, the way that investors need to think about them is not, hey, I'm, I'm looking for this company to grow. It's completely on a total return basis, right. I'll get a little bit of capital appreciation, let's call it that, GDP growth plus 1 or 2. I'll get some dividend yield, I'll get some repurchase of, of shares."

He advises investors to approach such investments with expectations centered on total returns—comprising modest capital appreciation, dividend yields, and share repurchases—rather than seeking significant growth.

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6. Conclusion

The episode concludes with Meyer's affirmation of the acquisition's strategic merit and its alignment with market trends favoring healthier, innovative beverage options. While acknowledging the maturity and steady performance of large beverage corporations, Meyer underscores the importance of understanding the investment nature of such entities—focusing on total returns rather than high-growth prospects.

Dylan Lewis (13:10):
"David, I'll raise a can to you. Thanks for joining me today."

David Meyer (13:13):
"Thanks for having me. This is awesome."

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Key Takeaways:

• Retail Sales: February saw a modest increase in retail sales, signaling cautious consumer spending amid inflation fears and economic uncertainties.

• Consumer Confidence: Surveys indicate declining consumer confidence, especially among lower-income groups, leading to reduced spending and increased price sensitivity.

• PepsiCo's Strategy: The acquisition of Poppi reflects PepsiCo's strategy to diversify its beverage portfolio and invest in health-oriented products, leveraging its distribution and marketing capabilities to scale innovative brands.

• Investment Outlook: Mature companies like PepsiCo offer stability and total returns through dividends and share buybacks, making them suitable for investors seeking steady income rather than high-growth investments.

For investors, understanding these dynamics is crucial in making informed decisions within the consumer goods sector.

Transcript

[Dylan Lewis]

Does that sound like future growth? Motley fool money starts now. I'm Dylan Lewis and I'm joined over the airwaves by Motley fool analyst David Meyer. David, thanks for joining me today.

[David Meyer]

You're very welcome. It's great to be here.

[Dylan Lewis]

We have a fun one this Monday. We got some retail numbers, not so much fun. But then we also have a Monday morning jolt of natural caffeine courtesy of Pepsi and some MA activity that'll be fun to dive into. We're going to kick off with the update on the big picture, though. Fresh retail numbers out for February. U.S. census Bureau reporting that retail sales up 0.2% last month over January. David, a lot of the coverage here continuing to flag tight consumer spending situation.

[David Meyer]

Yeah, so you're exactly right. 0.2% growth expectation was 0.6% though. So they were expecting after January's decline, they were, economists were expecting a pick back up in February. It did happen, just not to the extent that they wanted. And it's kind of the extension of a theme that's been going on. You know, earlier in the month we saw the confidence board, their consumer index fell a bit recently, got some data from the University of Michigan Consumer survey that, that their confidence is down a bit. According to both surveys, consumers are starting to worry about inflation popping up in the, in the rest of 2025. We're seeing lots of numbers that basically are saying the low end consumers are really feeling the pinch. There were two, basically two of the same quotes. One from the CEO of Dollar General, one from the CEO of Walmart who said their low end consumers are extended, they're buying smaller quantities in the back half of the year. Their money's not going as far as they want. There's tariffs and trade wars. That bit of uncertainty that businesses are saying, hey, you know, we don't know how to plan for this. And oh, by the way, retailers, Best Buy came out recently and said, hey, we're going to have to raise prices, which is the exact wrong thing if you want, you know, if consumers are sort of feeling the pinch. So, you know, yeah, this is, you know, like I said, an extension of bad news. Obviously it's still, we're still seeing growth, but it's just not as much as we want and you know, hopefully it won't turn negative.

[Dylan Lewis]

You brought up tariffs. I mean, I think there was kind of some expectation that there, there may be inflation concerns anyways, regardless of the tariff environment, just because of where we've been over the last couple years. Tariffs seem to Add a necessary price hike to what a lot of retailers will be passing along to consumers, which is another way of saying inflation. We'll start to maybe see that come out as we start seeing March and April numbers from retailers and they start to anticipate some of what's going on with tariffs. We didn't really see a lot of that in the February numbers. Aside from what we're seeing here from U.S. census Bureau, you name some of the other data sources. Where else are you looking to get a sense of consumer appetite and really how businesses are handling this?

[David Meyer]

I think the best way to get that data is quite frankly next quarter's earnings reports. The businesses are going, you're going to, we're going to have enough time go by as the businesses will be able to see and tell us exactly what happened to them in January, February and March. They'll also have started their planning process. What are they going to see for second quarter? Continue to get the monthly economic data. We'll continue to get survey data, which is all good stuff. Right? That's the, that's, that's can give us a sense of what's happening. But I'm definitely looking forward to all the retailers, consumer products companies, all the things like that who are going to say, hey, here's what our businesses did, here's where we think we're going. And hopefully it's, hopefully it's up and to the right.

[Dylan Lewis]

Speaking of those consumer products companies and consumer packaged goods companies, we got some news from Pepsi today. I kicked off the show opening up a can of poppy. They are buying a lot of cans of poppy, David. They are buying that prebiotic soda company for almost $2 billion. That's one of the big headlines out today. Is this a brand that you've tried before? Is this a soda drink that you're familiar with?

[David Meyer]

Actually, no. The worst part of it is I'm actually a soda drinker from Motley fool have and said I have a problem. We've discussed this in the past. I was chided and berated for how many diet Mountain Dews I used to drink. I don't drink as many anymore. But no, this isn't one that I have tried directly. So I will say this. I'm definitely going to go out and give it a try. I'm a very price conscious soda buyer so I'm looking for things that are on sale. I have no problem with the white label, private label brands, you know, from, from the local supermarket. That's kind of where that's kind of my go to. And these are a little expensive for, for my taste, but definitely, definitely going to, going to give one a try. My daughter, who is not a soda drinker and has and has also not tried one. One of the brands that we actually drink is a brand called Zevia. It's a soda that's sweetened with stevia as opposed to sugar. And she's like, I like that one better. It's got fewer things in it. In some sense it could be better for you. But it's hard to argue with the success of Poppy and other competitors in the space that's happened recently.

[Dylan Lewis]

I could not believe how serendipitous the timing was for this because I literally had my first Poppy soda this weekend. I have it in hand here as we're taping today's show. And for folks that haven't had it or maybe haven't had one of these soda alternative type drinks, I almost think of them as like adult sodas. David. They're kind of what sodas were maybe before high fructose corn syrup ever existed. It's more natural ingredients, a little bit more of a kind of natural, less punch in the mouth kind of sweet flavor. I like them, but I think you're dead on here. They are a more expensive product and they are not something that is going to necessarily appeal to every consumer. But they may appeal to people who are regular soda drinkers looking to make a healthier choice every now and then. I almost equate it to the space that Beyond Meat was in early on with, with meat eaters and trying not to go full replacement, but trying to offer alternatives.

[David Meyer]

Yeah, I think that's, I think that's spot on. As I was doing a little more reading and I shared this article with you, I'm actually quite surprised to see that Alipop, at least according to the article that we read from Bloomberg, Alipop and poppy made up 2%, 2.7% of the carbonated beverage market. If you think about that's enorm like and these have been around for what, let's call it five to seven years, right? Assuming I don't know exactly when they, you know, when they started their businesses.

[Dylan Lewis]

But it was like 2018.

[David Meyer]

Heyday two. Yeah, 2002 to three years. That, that is incredible. Like they have done a good job of one, designing their product, marketing their product, making it available. Maybe it's not a surprise that Pepsi is buying them because they can, they, Pepsi can actually push this trend forward given the amazing amount of distribution that they have as well. As the increased marketing budget that will be available to the product now that it'll be under the Pepsi umbrella.

[Dylan Lewis]

Looking at the way that the market is digesting this news, shares of Pepsi up about 2%. Pepsi is after all a $200 billion company. This is about a $2 billion acquisition. So I think the excitement is going to be a little muted. How do you see this fitting into their overall strategy?

[David Meyer]

It's difficult for them and, and for competitor like Coke, it's different for. It's difficult for them to actually develop new products. They just have amazing stable of brands. So they let the. In some sense it's almost like, it's almost like the pharmaceutical industry where you let smaller folks do the innovating and you buy them later. Right. And bring distribution and marketing power to that equation. I, you know, I think it fits in, right. It's a definite, it's definitely a trend. It's bigger than I thought. So there, there's a there there, let's say. So it's not like they're taking a flyer. They, Pepsi are taking a flyer. This is an established brand and they again, they can bring some, you know, bring some heft, bring some strength with their marketing and distribution, put it behind it. And you know, basically if you think about what the, with a 2% market up, right, if, if it's 1% of the market cap, right, and it's now 2% and the market is as 2% up, essentially the market likes this acquisition. I think I do too.

[Dylan Lewis]

Yeah, they're down with the taste. I did look at Pepsi's overall portfolio in prep for today's show and they have their drinks business. They also have the Frito Lay snack business. And looking through all the properties they have there, there's a little bit of a trend graveyard with some of the brands that they have these consumer things that were really big for a short period of time and have kind of fallen off as the next thing has come. They own Propel, they own Sobey, they own Naked Smoothies. A lot of drink categories that are good people. There's a dedicated group of people who really like them. But once they got past some of that fast growing period, they kind of stalled out a little bit and met their final market. And I was thinking is there a bit of almost like venture cap style investing to this for these drink makers where they see growth and they kind of have to have their hand in the ring there? Because Pepsi's not the only one. Coke is in the space too.

[David Meyer]

You're spot on with Your analogy there, there's a fabulous case study that I learned about a long time ago and it's called a creosote bush. And really quickly, what a creosote bush is, is it's essentially think of like a tumbleweed. It's not exactly the same, but it's a bush that lives in the desert and it survives by gobbling up all the resources. Well, if you think about what gets the resources at a company like PepsiCo, from a development standpoint, right, it's Pepsi, it's Diet Pepsi. It's right. It's the big brands. So it's hard for internally for a company like Pepsi or Coke to develop new things. So they actually have to take this approach, let the market sort of decide, hey, this looks like an emerging winner and come in a little later. Instead of angel investor or a series A investor, this is like series C, Series D, right? This is before the ipo. We're going to come in and there's a business there. They have structure, they have management, they have all the things that we need, right, as a business that we going to get via the acquisition. So I think you're, I think you're thinking about it exactly right there.

[Dylan Lewis]

For investors in this space, you look at the returns for Pepsi and for Coke over the last three, five, ten years, they've underperformed the market. Even if you start factoring in dividends. We've been waiting, I think, for both of these brands to find that thing that gets them outside of soda in a meaningful way. And don't get me wrong, I have a soft spot for it, but I don't have a soft spot for it in my portfolio. I like it on the table next to my sandwich. Do you feel like these businesses are investable or that there's something that would make them more investable for you?

[David Meyer]

It's difficult to say that they're investible, right? They're extremely mature. They're like GDP plus 1 to 2% type growth. The, the way that investors need to think about them is not, hey, I'm, I'm looking for this company to grow. It's completely on a total return basis, right. I'll get a little bit of capital appreciation, let's call it that, GDP growth plus 1 or 2. I'll get some dividend yield, I'll get some repurchase of, of shares. So I can probably expect maybe 6 to 8%, you know, per year, which is never a bad thing. Especially since this, these companies are mature. They're not going out of business, etc. Etc. But from let's, let's take the Pepsi and Poppy acquisition, this is actually a soda, right? The things that you mentioned before, they were during the water phase, they were during the tea phase, they were during the energy drink phase, which, you know, there's been many ways that Pepsi has made that one successful, but this is actually a part of their core brand. So it'll be, it'll be interesting to see if they can actually do a little more with this for longer than they have with some of the other ones. But that getting again, getting back to the real thing, you just have to as an, as an investor, any stock can be investable, especially at the right price, but you have to have the right expectations and total return is the way to think about it, not growth.

[Dylan Lewis]

David, I'll raise a can to you. Thanks for joining me today.

[David Meyer]

Thanks for having me. This is awesome.

[Oren Etzioni]

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[David Meyer]

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[Dylan Lewis]

Coming up on the show, it's no secret that a lot of investors have high hopes about the of artificial intelligence. But how do genuine experts, people who have been studying AI and machine learning long before it entered the mainstream, feel about the future of the field? Up next, Motley fool analysts Andy Cross and Asa Sharma talk with Oren Etzione, an AI expert and professor emeritus at the University of Washington, about the current and future states of artificial intelligence.

[Andy Cross]

Dr. Etioni, maybe to start, I'll just reflect on a 2024 New York Times article from last year where you said you're an optimist about artificial intelligence. That was just last year. So if 10 is totally optimistic and one is completely pessimistic, where are you these days and why?

[Oren Etzioni]

Well, I'm ambivalent, to be honest. So on the optimistic side, I am absolute a 9 or even a 10 simply because we're seeing self driving cars. We've been promised them for a long time, they're coming to the fore. You can actually get in one in San Francisco and Phoenix and more cities every day. And these save lives, right? Their accident rates are much lower than the 40,000 highway deaths we have each year. So I could go on and on, but the bottom line is there's just these huge benefits of AI saving lives. At the same time, I would say on the negative out of five, because we do have some very real concerns, the, the use of AI by totalitarian regimes, the impact of AI on jobs and disinformation. So we have plenty of problems that AI causes as well.

[Andy Cross]

And Dr. Etzioni, when you reflect on where we are today and you think about the technologies and then going forward, is there one particular, whether it's in the application of chatbots versus you are you're so involved in there because you've looked at so many businesses and you've invested in different businesses and run different businesses. I'm curious, when you think about the application of AI, you mentioned driverless cars, which I agree. Are there other things that stand out that really catch your attention these days?

[Oren Etzioni]

Absolutely. So my colleague Andrew Ng of Stanford said AI is the new electricity. So the first thing to understand before we get into some specifics, and I will in a sec, is just how transformative it is. So take a dart, throw it anywhere on any word in the dictionary, any field, education, health care, cars, robots, you name it. Yes, AI is right now transforming that. There are startups now, it takes a while. So some of these, particularly in heavily regulated industries like healthcare, it's going to take a while to reach its peak. But right now in finance, for example, in investing in regulatory compliance and things where there's like reams and reams of tax that somebody has to read and make sense of quickly, AI is up to that task because it can now really understand language and it doesn't run out of patience or time.

[Andy Cross]

Investing. Investing is a great, I mean, like just the amount of things that we are using the different tools for to go through financial statement analysis. I was just doing it this morning, doing some research and it's pretty, I mean, it's just, it's just a game changer really. It's a. It's a complete time saver. I don't know if the regular consumer on the street is. I still think we haven't seen the adoption of that quite yet. Do you agree with that?

[Oren Etzioni]

Well, what I'd like to point out, and again, we can spend a little bit of time to unpack this because it's just AI and investing is complicated. But the thing I want to highlight is I think people may not be aware the person on the street, the extent that they're already using AI every day. So when they're using, you know, Alexa, speech recognition, that's AI. When do you using a search engine, right. The ranking is done using AI. When you get a recommendation from Amazon or even your Facebook feed, that's all done using AI. So we're using it everywhere. Now in investing, you do need to be more sophisticated. Maybe you need to be a fool to be using AI.

[Andy Cross]

Why do you say you need to be a little bit more sophisticated on the investing side? Just curious.

[Oren Etzioni]

The thing to remember, my current favorite definition of AI, it's called artificial intelligence, but I like to refer to it as augmented intelligence, because if you just blindly rely on AI, then you really are a fool. You're the lawyer who submitted a brief to the court to find out that it invented some precedents and he got in trouble, and so on and so on. So the smart play is to use the information it gives you to make you a lot more efficient, but to still remain in the driver's seat, if you will, make your own decisions. So AI is really being used to augment us, to supercharge our abilities, not to take over.

[Dario Amodei]

Dario Amodei, who's, as you know, the CEO of Anthropic, has a lot of vision about the future and how AGI can benefit society. One of the visions he puts forward is that a reasonably intelligent artificial intelligence could be put in control of the means of production. So an AGI could control a factory and produce things at scale, or it could use tools to actually do science. So right now we think of having a transformer mechanism look through data sets and maybe come up with some innovative molecule. But he posits that the actual machine itself could have control over those tools. Do you think that is something that's viable or going to come anywhere near into the future?

[Oren Etzioni]

You're bringing up a really important point that a lot of people misunderstand. And I feel like this is the most important thing I'm going to say today. So let me just take a few extra seconds to say this. We often conflate, confuse, mix up intelligence and autonomy. Basically, autonomy is power. And people, right, who are very powerful, often very intelligent, very intelligent, often gain a lot of power. And so we naturally see these things are going hand in hand because that's how it works with people. With machines, it's very different. If you take ChatGPT, in some ways one of the most intelligent programs ever built, and you ask it, hey, chatgpt, what do you do? Between queries, the answer is, nothing. I just sit there, wait for the next query. So is ChatGPT powerful? No. Does it have autonomy? No, it just sits there. Likewise with these more sophisticated systems. The reason that's important is we can build over time AI systems that can do very, very sophisticated things, but people will and should remain in charge. Some of these visions, like the ones you're describing, assume that once we have these intelligent machines, we're not using as tools, they're using us. And I think that's a misconception. And the example I love to give to just drive this home is we're on the verge of having self driving cars in many, many places. As I mentioned, we already have them in several cities. It's the case that the car decides when to hit the brake, when to hit the gas, and all that to keep you safe. But it's not like the car decides where to go. It's not like I get into the car and I say, hey, I want to go to Dunkin Donuts. And it says, oh no, Oren, it's the second time this week I'm taking you to the gym. That's how it works. You still decide where the car goes and that's the way it needs to be with AI.

[Dario Amodei]

What I'm really curious about, and you're an expert in machine learning, among so many other things. If we look forward to this future where we do have artificial general intelligence, will it really be able to solve problems? It seems to me that so much of AI is based on optimization functions, so making things that are really probabilistically correct. And the human brain is so good at seeing things that come out of left field or just happening to have something that's in your consciousness that gets related to something else. And then we have breakthroughs. Why haven't we seen as yet? And not just the three years where most of us have been using things like ChatGPT, but in the years before, why have we not seen a major scientific breakthrough from the machines?

[Oren Etzioni]

I love that question. Because my colleagues at the Allen Institute for AI are actually working on machines for scientific discovery, as per the paper that I wrote a while back that you mentioned, which is there. You're right that it's important and valuable and you're right that we haven't quite seen it yet. It has to do actually with taste. It has to do with the fact that you can generate actually an enormous number of scientific advances. Most of them are completely uninteresting. Think of it, you can generate all these new molecules, right? But most of them are like, you know, they're hard to produce. They don't help anybody. So what's the point? It turns out that we still have a very strong, I don't want to call it monopoly, but a very strong advantage in taste, in knowing what's important, what really makes a difference. And so science requires a lot of taste, as, by the way, does art. So if you tell it to copy Picasso, it can do that very quickly. If you tell it to mix Picasso and Van Gogh, it'll do that very easily. If you tell it to produce art, it'll produce 10,000 paintings in a few seconds. But if you tell it to produce beautiful art that's new and exciting, all of a sudden it's like a colleague of mine said, that the music that AI produces sounds like wet cardboard. It doesn't have to taste.

[Dylan Lewis]

Listeners. That interview originally aired on our new livestream offering, Fool24. You can catch Fool24 every day on our member site and also on the Motley Fool's YouTube channel. Drop a link to the channel and to the full version of the conversation in our show notes for today's episode. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley fool may have formal recommendations for, against, don't Buy, sell anything based only on what you hear. All personal finance content follows mottool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Motley fool only picks products it'd personally recommend to friends like you. For the TMF team, I'm Dylan Lewis. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.