Motley Fool Money – “Reckless Earnings Predictions: ZM, BBY, DE”

Date: November 24, 2025
Host: Tim Byers
Analysts: Rick Benares, Dave Meyer

Episode Overview

This episode dives into “reckless” earnings predictions for three major companies—Zoom Video Communications (ZM), Best Buy (BBY), and Deere & Company (DE)—as they prepare to release quarterly results. The hosts and analysts debate whether each company will miss, beat, or beat-and-raise their earnings expectations, backing up their “reckless” calls with analysis of recent performance, industry trends, and specific company drivers. The episode then shifts gears for a round of “Faker or Breaker,” where the team assesses three turnaround stories.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Zoom Video Communications (ZM)

• Consensus Estimates:
  • Revenue: $1.21 billion
  • EPS (non-GAAP): $1.43
• Predictions:
  • Rick: Beat and raise
  • Dave: Beat
  • Tim: Moderates and questions the reasoning

Reasoning & Analysis

• Dave [01:59]:
  “Looking back at the last…10 to 12 quarters, they have beaten the revenue… each time… There’s a little sandbagging… but they are ahead of what management has been guiding.”
• Rick [02:45]:
  “Zoom, it’s like this toy you stashed away in the 2020 time capsule, but you forget to take out the batteries. So it’s still going.”
  • Noted this is Zoom’s 4th consecutive year of single-digit growth, countering the narrative that growth is over.
  • Sees recent momentum and incremental revenue improvements, leading to the rare “beat and raise” call, though he qualifies, “I’m talking about the smallest poker chip on your table.”

Key Factors Discussed

• Incremental improvements—especially operational efficiency—are driving the bottom line, not explosive new growth.
• Enterprise segment drives profitability; consumer segment drags margins.
• Dave [04:51]: “Doing things incrementally to make their product a little better, a little more sticky…Business is a little bit better, especially on the enterprise side.”
• Rick [05:22]: Emphasis on operational improvements outpacing enterprise segment growth.

2. Best Buy (BBY)

• Consensus Estimates:
  • Revenue: $9.58 billion
  • EPS (non-GAAP): $1.31
  • Comparable sales: ~1.5% growth

Predictions:

• Rick: Miss
• Dave: Beat

Reasoning & Analysis

• Rick [06:47]:
  Highlights reliance on headline product launches (iPhone 17, Nintendo Switch 2) and notes shifting consumer sentiment.
  “Consumers are leery of big-ticket purchases like PCs and higher-end laptops. The housing market…important to Best Buy…that’s icy.”
  • Sees conditions for a rare miss despite low expectations.
• Dave [07:57]:
  Points to Best Buy’s history of sandbagging expectations and operational discipline:
  “They know their business well…not going to set a target…that is a high hurdle.”
  • Sees a “coin flip” outcome but leans to a narrow beat due to conservative management forecasting.

Debate Highlights

• Rick uses personal analogies and injects humor:
  “I think this is the time where Best Buy is going to, in the words of NSync, best buy, buy, buy and not, you know, say goodbye.”
• Dave questions if consumer weakness can be offset by the company’s conservative guidance.

3. Deere & Company (DE)

• Consensus Estimates:
  • Revenue: $10 billion
  • EPS: $3.96

Predictions:

• Rick: Miss
• Dave: Miss

Reasoning & Analysis

• Dave [10:33]:
  “There’s a whole lot of farmers out there who are struggling…The demand picture…seems dicey. That’s why I’d be probably betting more on the miss side.”
• Rick [11:21]:
  Jokes about becoming a “tractor detractor,” but notes recent analyst downgrades:
  “Three of these analysts lowered their profit targets for this quarter…starting to see some weakness.”
• Tim [12:01]:
  Provides extra context—backlog of used inventory on dealers’ lots could stymie new equipment sales.

Summary Table

| Company (Ticker) | Rick | Dave | |------------------|------|------| | Zoom (ZM) | Beat & Raise | Beat | | Best Buy (BBY) | Miss | Beat | | Deere (DE) | Miss | Miss |

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Rick, re: Zoom [02:45]:
  “Zoom, it’s like this toy you stashed away in the 2020 time capsule, but you forget to take out the batteries. So it’s still going.”

• Dave, re: C3.ai [15:27]:
  “In the AI space, it is nothing but clear skies…And this is a company that cannot navigate it and hasn’t been able to for a number of years…This is the biggest faker that there’s been.”

• Tim, re: Deere [12:01]:
  “If that backlog of used equipment is not moving off dealer lots, it’s going to be really difficult to get new equipment onto those dealer lots. And that is a problem for Deere.”

• Rick, re: Best Buy [07:44]:
  “I think this is the time where Best Buy is going to, in the words of NSync, best buy, buy, buy and not, you know, say goodbye.”

• Rick, re: Yelp [20:14]:
  “Yelp elite used to mean something. Now there’s so many other places you can get reviews for just about anything, even AI from the actual search engines themselves. But more importantly, this is a business that’s been slowing for more than a decade and a half.”

Important Segment Timestamps

• 00:33 – 05:55: Reckless predictions for Zoom (ZM)
• 05:55 – 08:55: Reckless predictions for Best Buy (BBY)
• 08:55 – 12:01: Reckless predictions for Deere & Co. (DE)
• 14:18 – 21:13: “Faker or Breaker” turnaround company analysis
• 21:13 – 21:43: Wrap-up thoughts on “Faker or Breaker”

“Faker or Breaker” Special Segment

The hosts assess whether three ‘turnaround’ companies deserve optimism (“Breaker”) or whether their growth opportunities are permanently capped (“Faker”).

| Company (Ticker) | Verdict | Analyst | Reasoning Highlights | |--------------------|--------------|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | C3.ai (AI) | Faker | Dave | Failed to capture AI demand, restructuring isn’t enough | | Honest Co. (HNST) | Faker | Rick | Growth bombed since 2020 peak, hard to stand out in CPG | | Yelp (YELP) | Faker | Both | Revenue slowing for over a decade, lots of substitutes |

• Dave on C3.ai [15:27]:
  “This is a company that started right when AI was picking up... they just haven’t been able to really capture the demand that’s out there with their platform.”
• Rick on Honest Co. [17:13]:
  “They do everything right. You want them to succeed. But there’s not really a lot of growth here. It’s sort of hard to stand out…”
• Rick on Yelp [20:14]:
  “Yelp is Yelp elite. Used to mean something. Now there’s so many other places you can get reviews for just about anything…”

Takeaways & Final Thoughts

• The team continues to see a pattern where management tends to guide conservatively and beat slightly, but see signs of real risk for Best Buy and Deere this quarter.
• In their “Faker or Breaker” segment, even turnaround stories can’t convince them—each is judged to have grim long-term prospects unless something dramatic changes.
• Memorable moment: Rick and Dave lean into playful language and analogies, making even dire predictions engaging.

Listen for More

The Motley Fool Money team encourages feedback on their fearless (if reckless) predictions and hints at more engaging "games" and evaluations in future episodes. If you want to know whether their calls played out correctly, check company reports after the episode date and let the team know in the comments.