Motley Fool Money: "Shopify’s Whiplash Day"

Episode Date: February 12, 2026
Host: Tyler Crowe
Analysts: Matt Frankel, John Klost

Episode Overview

This episode of Motley Fool Money dissects the market whiplash around Shopify’s Q4 earnings, delves into Moderna’s regulatory hurdles with its flu vaccine pipeline, and concludes with an engaging session of "Stocks on Our Radar." Through in-depth analysis, the team offers a long-term investment perspective on two prominent companies facing pivotal challenges, all while maintaining the signature witty, conversational tone of the Motley Fool.

Segment 1: Shopify’s “Whiplash Day” Earnings Reaction

Shopify’s Volatile Stock Move

• [00:00–01:24]
  Pre-market euphoria sours into a steep daily decline:
  • Shopify stock popped 13% in pre-market after Q4 earnings, only to drop by the market close, ending down 6% for the day.
  • Host Tyler Crowe admits, “Shopify investors probably have like their necks treated for whiplash.”

Financial Results Look Strong on Surface

• [01:24–02:52] (Matt Frankel)
  • 31% YOY revenue growth—same pace as last year, defying deceleration.
  • Gross merchandise volume up 29% YOY.
  • Shop Pay checkout volumes surged 62%.
  • Authorized a new $2B buyback, first quarter guidance beat estimates.
  • Weak points: EPS missed by a few cents, free cash flow margin contracted, net income declined YOY.
  • Quote: “There really wasn’t much to dislike in the report other than that EPS miss which the market will usually forgive.” — Matt Frankel [02:30]

Conference Call Causes Market Rethink

• [02:52–05:47]
  John Klost explains the analyst concerns:
  • All major conference call questions focused on “agentic commerce”—the rise of AI agents shopping on behalf of consumers.
  • Shopify’s response: Building Universal Commerce Protocol (with Google). It’s open-source, so not proprietary to Shopify.
  • Potential disruption: AI agents may alter user engagement, disintermediate traditional platforms (like Pinterest), may bring SaaS-style risks.
  • Quote: “Investors have questions about what agentic commerce means for Shopify going forward.” — John Klost [03:36]
  • “Does it hurt or help Shopify?” remains the lingering market question.

Is Shopify Still Investable?

• [05:47–07:26]
  • John: Not a current holder, sees “more market jitters than the breaking of the investment thesis”; notes both execution and valuation risk.
  • Matt: Long-term holder, “Shopify has been challenged before with new technologies and has historically done a great job of adapting... I think it’s an opportunity here.”
  • Both analysts see Shopify’s adaptability as a plus, but acknowledge the uncertainties AI may bring.

Segment 2: Moderna’s Bridge Over Troubled Water

Moderna’s FDA Hurdles

• [08:30–09:57]
  • FDA refused to review Moderna's MRNA flu vaccine (second regulatory setback in a year).
  • Flu and avian flu vaccines were considered crucial “bridge treatments” to fund next-gen cancer/rare disease drugs.
  • Moderna is burning through cash; COVID vaccines aren’t filling the revenue gap.

How Damaging Is the Setback?

• [09:57–11:33] (Matt Frankel)
  • “It’s definitely a setback, but it’s not what I would consider a game changer.”
  • The flu candidate is only one of 50+ pipeline drugs; international approvals (EU, Canada, Australia) still pending or granted.
  • U.S. FDA cited issues with trial methodology, not MRNA technology per se.
  • Company aims for 10 approvals by end of 2027.

Biotech: High Risk, High Reward

• [11:33–12:28] (John Klost)
  • “Either you get your drug to market or you don’t.”
  • Moderna’s broad pipeline is an encouraging sign versus “all eggs in one basket” risk.

Regulatory Uncertainty—And Politics

• [12:28–15:36]
  • Tyler: “If we’re seeing resistance from the FDA on these influenza type vaccines, why should the attitude ... be any different” toward others?
  • John: Main concern is “regulatory clarity,” not necessarily the politics, noting communication issues plague many sectors (crypto, tariffs).
  • “Companies are having a hard time knowing how to plan because of the lack of regulatory clarity.” — John Klost [14:47]
  • Matt: “The administration’s attitude toward vaccines has become generally more cautious. That’s not a political statement.”
  • Expects FDA may treat oncology/rare disease drugs differently than population-wide vaccines.
  • He calls the setback “not a death blow.”

Segment 3: Stocks on Our Radar

[18:16–20:49]
Each analyst shares a stock they’re watching, injecting personal anecdotes and familiar Fool flair.

Matt Frankel: Trex (TREX)

• Sector: Composite decking/building materials
• Pandemic demand spurred oversupply; stock has been hammered.
• Suggests a “sneaky way” to play falling interest rates as more Americans tap home equity for renovations.
• “As it becomes more economical for them to tap into it, I think Trex could be a big winner from here.” [19:21]

John Klost: Crocs (CROX)

• Sector: Footwear/apparel
• “There are cheap stocks where the business is dying… there are also cheap stocks where the business is fine. And that’s what I see Crocs in that category.” [19:54]
• Sales flat, strong cash flow ($700M), paid down debt, aggressive buybacks.
• “I think it’s going to be hard for shareholders to lose money.”

Tyler Crowe: Safran (SAF.PA / SAFRY)

• Sector: Aerospace/defense (French company, OTC in US)
• Leading manufacturer of jet engines (partnered w/ GE), aircraft components; 52% revenues from high-margin aftermarket parts.
• Investing in next-gen space launch rockets (Ariane Group).
• “These engines are like the workhorse of the aviation industry and they generate decades of aftermarket parts and service revenues.” [20:41]
• Not cheap on earnings (29x), but sees several catalysts ahead.

Running Joke: “Plastics”

• After summarizing picks, Tyler makes a nod to "The Graduate": “Plastic decking, plastic shoes, and plastic interiors for airplanes ... I think that we’re really into that classic line... ‘one word, plastics.’”

Notable Quotes

• Matt Frankel, on Shopify’s AI challenge [02:52]:
  “Shopify has been challenged before with new technologies and has historically done a great job of adapting.”
• John Klost, on conference call nerves [03:17]:
  “If you ever see a stock drop after the conference call and you wonder what was said, tune into the first question asked from analysts and that'll probably be what the culprit is.”
• Tyler Crowe, on Moderna’s cash burn [08:30]:
  “It will have to rely on the revenue it gets from its current commercial products... and it's burning through a rather large amount of cash to do all of that development and the COVID vaccinations aren't quite filling the gap.”
• John Klost, on regulatory communication [14:47]:
  “Companies are having a hard time knowing how to plan because of the lack of regulatory clarity.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00 — Shopify Q4 earnings overview
• 01:24 — Shopify financial results (Matt)
• 03:17 — Agentic commerce and AI in e-commerce (John)
• 05:47 — Is Shopify still investable?
• 08:30 — Moderna’s FDA setbacks explained
• 09:57 — It’s a setback, not a game changer (Matt)
• 11:33 — Biotech investing risks (John)
• 12:28 — Regulatory uncertainty and political context
• 18:16 — Stocks on Our Radar
• 19:23 — Trex pitch (Matt)
• 19:54 — Crocs pitch (John)
• 20:49 — Safran pitch (Tyler)

Tone and Takeaways

The conversation is affable, transparent, and opinionated yet grounded in fundamental analysis.

• Shopify: Strong underlying business, but the rise of AI-powered “agentic commerce” injects uncertainty; management’s adaptability is a plus.
• Moderna: FDA skepticism is a real regulatory headwind, but the company’s diverse pipeline and international approvals buffer the risk. Broad regulatory uncertainty clouds biotech’s outlook.
• Radar Stocks: A mix of beaten-down and resilient names, playful banter on “plastics.”

For Listeners:

This episode delivers actionable insights into two market-moving stories, demystifies the drivers behind abrupt stock moves, and offers new stock ideas—all while helping long-term investors look beyond the noise.