Tales of Unexpected Losses: AXON, TREX, WRBY

Summary

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Motley Fool Money: Tales of Unexpected Losses — AXON, TREX, WRBY

Date: November 10, 2025
Host: Tim Byers
Analysts: Jason Hall, Emily Flippen

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Motley Fool Money’s Tim Byers, Jason Hall, and Emily Flippen dissect the latest quarterly earnings from three companies—Axon Enterprise (AXON), Trex (TREX), and Warby Parker (WRBY)—all of which faced surprising drops after their reports. The team discusses what spooked the market, their own takes on the results, and whether these setbacks represent buying opportunities. The second half features a spirited game of “Faker or Breaker,” evaluating the long-term prospects of select innovative stocks.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Axon Enterprise (AXON): Surprising Loss With Growth Foundations

[01:00–02:24]

• Street’s Reaction: The return to operating losses for the first time in almost four years triggered “shoot first, ask questions later” sentiment in markets, notably due to headline misses and weaker guidance.
  • Emily Flippen: “The most obvious thing is their return to operating losses...that’s largely what led to this mentality of shoot first, ask questions later.” [01:24]
• Explanation: Losses were partly anticipated, driven by tariff impacts on margins and heavy investments in fast-growing business segments. Despite the loss, AXON posted its seventh consecutive quarter of 30%+ revenue growth.
  • Emily argued this quarter was deceptively strong: “Expenses have gone up, but they're investing in future growth. And that's what I love to see.” [01:50]
• Odd Accounting Note: Effective tax rate clocked in at 113.9%.
  • Tim Byers: “I don't think I've seen this before. 113.9% is what Alpha Sense reported for us here.” [02:24]
• Takeaway: Despite the drop and expense spike, AXON’s growth and scale remain compelling.

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2. Trex (TREX): Cyclical, Cheap, But Facing New Headwinds

[03:02–06:51]

• Market Reaction: Trex fell sharply—up to 75% from the previous high—despite fair earnings results.
  • Jason Hall: “I've seen the stock fall 30% like 10 times and 40% or more about half of those...This is a very seasonal cyclical business.” [03:02]
• Quarter Details:
  • Revenue up 20%+, margin dollars improved, but inventory pullback and margin compression flagged.
  • Increased spending on marketing, and delayed revenue from a new factory, signal further near-term earnings pressure.
  • Competition:
    • Emily: “Competition is stiff out there now...bamboo is cheap, accessible, and way more prevalent today than it was a decade ago.” [05:11]
    • Jason: The real differentiator is Trex’s cost advantages—95% of inputs are recycled, compared to 65–70% for the main competitor, TimberTech.
      • “Cost advantages when you're a manufacturer in a cyclical industry really, really matter.” [05:57]
• Takeaway: Trex trades as cheap as it did in the early 2000s on earnings and sales multiples, but faces both macroeconomic and competitive threats.

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3. Warby Parker (WRBY): Brand Power Tested by Macro and Supply Chain

[06:51–10:07]

• Key Issues:
  • Missed its own revenue guidance—Q3 came in short, and Q4 is projected at just 11–12% growth.
    • Tim: “They missed their own revenue guidance. Management had guided for larger than 15% revenue growth in Q3...they had to come out and say...we came in lower than planned.” [06:51]
  • Downward pressure on average selling prices as customers stuck to lower-priced frames and contacts.
  • Major supply chain pain: Tariffs hit Vietnam (main supply source) hard.
• Bright Spots:
  • 9.3% increase in active customers (2.7 million), strong store-level margins (“over 30%, close to 35%”).
  • Adjusted EBITDA grew ~50% to $25.7 million: “This is still a highly efficient business even though the macro factors are really crushing it a bit.” [07:57]
• Industry Challenges:
  • Jason notes increasing costs of physical expansion and the cyclical/deferrable nature of eyewear purchases. He does, however, suggest Warby Parker’s cost leadership could serve it well long-term.
    • “Because they are a bit of a low cost leader already, that's part of their business model...the near term headwind could...drive more people to Warby Parker.” [09:18]
• Customer Loyalty: Anecdotes of high satisfaction, particularly among value-focused families.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Emily on Axon’s Heavy Spending:
  “Expenses have gone up, but they're investing in future growth. And that's what I love to see.” [01:50]

• Jason on Trex’s Cyclicality:
  “I've seen the stock fall 30% like 10 times and 40% or more about half of those...very seasonal cyclical business.” [03:02]

• Emily on Industry Shifts: “Part of the lack of performance recently has to be because there's just so many alternatives. I mean bamboo is cheap, accessible and way more prevalent today than it was a decade ago.” [05:11]

• Jason on Trex’s Core Strength:
  “The thing that is probably its biggest competitive strength is its cost advantages...Cost advantages when you’re a manufacturer in a cyclical industry really, really matter.” [05:57]

• Tim on Warby Parker’s Store Economics:
  “The four wall EBITDA margins on a Warby Parker store are absolutely outrageous. They are over 30%, they are close to 35%.” [08:20]

• Jason on Consumer Behavior:
  “People will wait another year to get glasses if the finances are tight.” [09:18]

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Buy, Sell, or Hold? Analyst Calls

[10:07–11:47]

• Warby Parker (WRBY):
  • Tim Byers: Buy — “I like this management team...they have a significant brand advantage...proven to be very good at capital allocation.”
• Trex (TREX):
  • Jason Hall: Buy — “It's so misunderstood and the opportunity is still incredible...Trex is built, it's a block and tackling business at its core...a better manufacturer than anybody else.”
• Axon (AXON):
  • Emily Flippen: Buy — “This is the tax you pay when you own what is basically a quasi monopoly...growing at a breakneck speed for decades with no signs...growth is expected to slow down.”

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Game: Faker or Breaker

[12:49–18:29]

Analysts debate whether innovative companies are “breakers” (capable of sustained, disruptive growth) or “fakers” (flashy but unsustainable):

1. Archer Aviation (ACHR):

   • Tim: Breaker in the making.
   • Emily: Faker — “Their timeline for FAA certification...is hilariously too aggressive...It’s basically just a science project.” [14:08]
   • Jason: Faker — “I don't think any companies in this space are going to prove to be Rule breakers. There’s no real differentiation.” [14:38]

2. Hippo Holdings (HIPO):

   • Jason: Faker — “Probably going to be more of a traditional business than an actual rule breaker...I don’t think they’re going to change things in any fundamental way.” [15:26]
   • Emily: Faker — “Every single option [for insurance] more expensive than what I’m already paying. Until they’re able to reduce my costs, it’s a faker in my mind.” [16:09]

3. Champion Homes (SKY):

   • Emily: (Leaning Breaker) — “We’ve under built housing in the United States for decades...this is a type of opportunity that could be a leader in its space.” [17:40]
   • Jason: Skeptical — “Never going to be a rule breaker until the financing issue gets resolved...it’s the math that doesn’t work around paying for the property.” [18:03]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Axon Enterprise discussion: [01:00–02:50]
• Trex breakdown: [03:02–06:51]
• Warby Parker analysis: [06:51–10:07]
• Buy/Sell/Hold calls: [10:07–11:47]
• Faker or Breaker game (Archer Aviation, Hippo, Champion Homes): [12:49–18:29]

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Tone & Language

The conversation is energetic, candid, and insight-packed, with good-natured banter and a heavy dose of market wisdom. The speakers are optimistic about well-run companies navigating headwinds but realistic about industry disruption and the limits of growth stories.

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Summary Takeaways

• Short-term pain often masks long-term opportunity (AXON, TREX, WRBY all reaffirmed as “buys” by the panel despite rough quarters).
• Market overreactions to earnings misses can create favorable entry points for investors who understand the underlying business.
• Macro and competitive headwinds can bruise even industry leaders—but don’t negate their core strengths.
• True “breakers” are rare; analysts remain skeptical about the latest hype stocks unless there’s clear evidence of long-term disruption and consumer value.

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Transcript

[A]

Foreign.

[B]

We have tales of unexpected losses from last week's earnings. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome, fools. I'm your host, Tim Byers, and with me are longtime fools Jason all and Emily Flippen, another, another podcast host. Friends, how, how are we today are fully caffeinated and enjoying the possibility of a reopening of the federal government?

[C]

I mean, enjoying is one way to put it, but we're not going to really talk about it here because it's still so early in the story. It's a thing that's going on.

[B]

It is a thing that is going on. We hope the market is up. There is hope. If you haven't followed it, there is hope for the ending of the government shutdown. Lots of things that political pundits will tell you about. We're going to tell you about some stocks.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

And let's start with Axon Enterprise. Emily. We're, we're looking at three earnings reports that kind of surprise and disappointed. Axon was one of them. What we want to do is break down what the street didn't like, what we think, and whether we think now is the time to buy, sell, or hold. So give me your take here, Emily. So what did the street not like about the, the Exxon report? What do you think of it?

[D]

Well, the most obvious thing is their return to operating losses for the first time in nearly four years. I actually think that's, that's largely what led to this mentality of like, shoot first, ask questions later, because the headline numbers came in and you can call it Wall street, but I would also add algorithmic traders, all of these different pundits that are coming in and trying to evaluate this quarter, they see that operating loss and they see guidance that came in weaker than expected. And it was, oh, my gosh, the growth story for Exxon is over. I don't know what to make of this, but the reality is that a lot of this was expected. Some of the losses were driven by tariffs, which obviously weighed on margins. But in my opinion, this was actually a strong quarter. And I know that sounds contradictory or counterintuitive, but the reason they're driven to operating losses is because they're investing so heavily into their different segments that are growing exponentially. I mean, this was their, I think, seventh consecutive quarter of 30% plus revenue growth. So, yeah, expenses have gone up, but they're investing in future growth. And that's what I love to see.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, it's a, it's an interesting one. The, the thing that I Thought was, was super interesting here, Emily, is the effective tax rate was. I don't think I've seen this before. 113.9% is what Alpha Sense reported for us here. So I mean I guess the nice thing about that is this is a very profitable, very well scaled business that just keeps scaling. But we need to talk about another one that this is one of my, my favorite businesses. But the market decided that they were not so happy with Trex. What happened?

[C]

I followed Trex for about 15 years now and this is not the first time that I've, we've seen this with Trex. Now I'll say this, this is the first time we've seen the stock fall 75% from the previous high in the past 15 years. But going back since 2010, Tim, I've, I've seen the stock fall 30% like 10 times and 40% or more about half of those. This is a very seasonal cyclical business. And the funny thing is kind of like we just saw with, you just talked about with Axon, the numbers really weren't bad for the quarter. It's all about, you know, what are you going to do? For me, that's the story. We saw a pretty solid 20 plus percent revenue growth margin was actually better. Profit margin dollars were better. There were some positive things there. But when you start saying things like, you know what, our customers, which are distributors, they're saying they're going to start pulling down, they're going to decline their inventory a little bit. Oh by the way, our margins are actually going to start. Our gross margin percent was squeezed a little bit because of one of our fastest growing products and that product is going to continue to probably grow faster than the rest of our business. That's going to hit our bottom line. Oh also, you know that big new factory that we're opening, well, expenses related to that because it's really not contributing revenue right now but expenses related to that, they're going to hit us even more on the bottom line next year. And like in the anti Steve Jobs. One more thing, that one more thing is. Oh, by the way, we're maybe a little concerned that we've seen so much consolidation in our market and now some of our competitors are now part of really big companies with really deep pockets. We're going to spend a lot more money on sales and marketing next year and that's going to hit our margin too. And everybody knows the housing market is, the macro is bad, right? So all of those things together and this is the cheapest that I've seen this stock since, since I've covered it on a sale, on a price to sales basis and since, I mean you got to go back to like in the early 2000s to find a time on a price to earnings ratio basis the stock was this cheap.

[D]

Emily, I have to say, you know, as much as I like Tracks and it's been an incredible rule breaker for, for so many years now. I mean competition is stiff out there now. It used to be that Tracks was like the only composite on the market. So if you weren't doing trad wood you would do Treks. But I can't help but think to myself, I mean part of the lack of performance recently has to be because there's just so many alternatives. I mean bamboo is cheap, accessible and way more prevalent today than it was a decade ago.

[B]

I think it's interesting. It's hard for me to know whether or not this is competitive issues. If it's channel issues, if it's macro issues. It feels like it could be any one of those three. Jason.

[C]

Why not both? Can it be both?

[B]

Yeah, I guess it could be both.

[C]

I think it's all of these things but I think what we often forget with a company like Trex that it's a classic rule breaker that's no longer a rule breaker, it's become the rule maker. Is the thing that is probably its biggest competitive strength is its cost advantages. If you look at its manufacturing, 95% of its inputs are waste products, waste plastic and waste wood. If you look at Timber Tech which is its largest direct competitor as they move up the product into their nicer product, only about 70%, 65 to 70% are those waste products which means they're feeding a lot of virgin resin and other products in there and it costs more. Cost advantages when you're a manufacturer in a cyclical industry really, really matter. And those are things that those costs they can pass along while still getting better margins than the competitors. Sometimes I think we for that.

[B]

Yeah, that's a great point. All right, let's move on to Warby Parker which was down significantly primarily for two reasons. First, and I think this is the one that really left me feeling pretty cold, they missed their own revenue guidance. Management had guided for larger than 15% revenue growth in Q3. They had to come out and say well this was, we were, we came in lower than planned. And they forecast Q4 revenue growth of only 1211 to 12% revenue growth for that quarter. And that was apparently on, on macro weakness. They also saw Average selling prices come under pressure as people went for the lower priced glasses, lower priced contacts, lower priced glasses. This by the way is also a company that has been under serious pressure due to the tariffs and tariffs particularly in its primary supply. Their primary supply chain is out of Vietnam and Vietnam has been absolutely crushed by tariffs and that has really hurt Warby Parker to a large degree. We really did see it in this quarter. Now having said that, this is still the brand leader. I mean I have my Warby Parker classes. I got them just about a year ago. I love them, I think they're great. And I'm not the only one here. Average customers grew 9.3%. There are now 2.7 million these stores. And again the four wall EBITDA margins on a Warby Parker store are absolutely outrageous. They are over 30%, they are close to 35%. And even in this quarter where things didn't go quite right overall adjusted EBITDA was up close to 50% to about 25.7 million. That is significant. So this is still a highly efficient business even though the macro factors are really crushing it a bit. Do either of you have a pair of the. You, you, you have much better, both of you have much better vision than I do. I'm going to guess you do not have Warby Parker Gl.

[C]

I, I know video imagery shows really well for podcasts, but I'm holding up on the screen right now two different pairs of glasses that I have to wear depending on the situation. So I, I do not. And the funny thing about it is Jeff Santoro, who's a close friend of mine, a colleague of ours, loves Warby Parker because he's used it because he has kids, teenage boys, one of whom needs glasses and he knows that the glasses are just something that's going to get lost, right?

[B]

Yes.

[C]

And he, that experience has been mind boggling. Good for, for his family and other people that I've talked to in the similar situation. So I think there's a there there. But I think at the end of the day, the more they move into physical locations, the harder this business is going to get. Right. Because it's expensive. This, the cyclicality and the reality because this is the kind of thing that this isn't like traditional health care where it's fine through recessionary periods. People will wait another year to get glasses if the finances are tight. So I do think those things are pressure pressuring the business. But, but at the same time I think because they are a bit of a low cost leader already, that's part of their business model. It could actually be the near term headwind could in the long run could drive more people to Warby Parker that when times are good, they're spending more money on the nicer stuff.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, we'll see. I'm going to start us on our buy, sell, hold here because I just did Warby Parker. I'm a buy. I've been buying this stock for a while now. I would like to be buying more and more even though I tend to agree there are some short term pressures here. But I like this management team. I think they're heavily invested. I think they have a significant brand advantage. And even though stores are expensive, they have proven to be very, very good at capital allocation with those stores. So I'm a buy here. Let's move on to trucks. Jason, buy, sell or hold. Where are you?

[C]

Yeah, I'm absolutely a buy on trucks right now. I think it's so misunderstood and the opportunity is still incredible as we go through this big wealth transfer from boomers and their parents down to younger generations that are prioritizing things like outdoor living spaces, things that are easier to work on and think about the environmental impact. I think Trex is built, it's a block and tackling business at its core. We always forget that that's really what makes it so good. It's a better manufacturer than anybody else. I'm absolutely a buy on Trex right now.

[B]

All right, Emily, Axon, buy, sell or hold. What do you got?

[D]

Well, let's round it out. I'm also a buy on Axon and similarly to Jason, I think this business can't be misunderstood. And it's easy to look at the pullback from earnings and say, oh, it's fallen, of course it's a buy. The reality is Axon is still very expensive. Let's be very clear about that. Even after the pullback in earnings, this is an expensive company. But I think that this is the tax that you pay when you own what is basically a quasi monopoly that has been growing at a breakneck speed for decades with no signs that that growth is expected to slow down. So I think the Runway here is just too long to ignore.

[B]

Fair enough. All right, up next we've got another game of Faker or Breaker. You're listening to Motley Fool Money introducing.

[A]

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[B]

All right, fools, it's another game of faker or breaker. As a reminder, this is the game where we ask our analysts here, we ask the panel whether or not these companies are either breakers that can deliver sustainable growth over really long periods of time, they have the attributes, the six traits of a rule breaker or most of them, or they are the kinds of companies that are showing incredible growth over a short period of time but are destined to flame out because the traits just aren't there. And we're going to go three of them and we're going to go around the horn and I'm going to start us off on Archer Aviation Ticker achr. For those who do not know what this company is, it is a evtol. This is an electric vertical takeoff and landing. Think of really fancy but kind of awesome looking helicopters that they call midnight, but they're not quite helicopters, they're planes. But they have a significant partnership with United Airlines. So faker or breaker? I think this one is a breaker in the making. Emily, what do you say? Faker? Breaker.

[D]

Well, a partnership with United, oh my gosh, that has to make it a breaker. No, I my least favorite airline out.

[B]

Of all the airlines available.

[D]

No, this is in my mind this is a faker for now. And I don't want to downplay the technical milestones that they have achieved and there is certainly an opportunity here if you expand out far enough. But I think that their timeline for, you know, FAA certification in the next two years is hilariously too aggressive. I think the concept of scaling, you know, is even challenging without regulatory hurdles. It's pre revenue, highly capex intensive. It's basically just a science project. So for me right now, this is a faker.

[B]

All right, Jason, what do you got?

[C]

Yeah, I don't think any of the companies in this space are going to prove to be Rule breakers. I think there's no real differentiation. I think you have to go through too much regulatory hurdles to be successful. And United, Emily, I'll say this. It's actually been the best run airliner in the US for the past five years. It doesn't feel like it but actually they've done a pretty good job. But yeah, I, I don't, I don't see that space at all as being one with, with any rule breakers coming out of it.

[B]

All right, let's move on to probably my favorite name in this list. Hippo Holdings Ticker H I P O. This is an insure tech company and they have you know this, this looks like mostly multi line casualty homeowners related insurance. Jason, what do you got for me here? Where are you at on InsureTech and Hippo?

[C]

I think there's a. There there. This is a profitable company. I think that's an important thing to remember. A lot of times when you take a word and then you add tech to the end of it. Yeah, that's a good way to like put it. Like a, like a marketing wrapper around a financial business that you just haven't figured out how to make profitable. So this is a profitable business and they have some things that they are doing that are working. But honestly I think it's probably going to be more of a traditional business than like an actual rule breaker. I don't, I don't think they're going to change things in any fundamental way or disrupt markets.

[B]

All right. So, so faker. Emily. I saw, I saw the head shake, I saw the frown. I'm guessing you think faker.

[D]

I, I actually I, I take issue with Jason calling this company a profitable company. I mean on an adjust non adjusted basis, on a gap basis, yes. But that's just because they had a couple of like non ca the quarter. Now they have produced operating income to Jason's point for the last two quarters, which is positive. But that's after so many quarters of operating losses here. It's actually in my opinion regardless of how they're doing in terms of the operating income, the question is what space are they operating in and are can they be a breaker in insuretech? And in my opinion what defines whether or not somebody is going to be a breaker in something like insurtech is can you save me money? So I went and I was like okay, let me quote my home here with Hippo and just curious what they give back to me. Every single option more expensive than what I'm already paying. So until they're able to reduce my costs. It's a faker in my mind.

[B]

Okay, fair enough.

[C]

Let me say this just for, for clarification, I was looking at their combined ratio, which if I'm looking at a company that writes insurance combined ratio is really important. They just got to 100%. So it's like, okay, there's something working there.

[D]

An emphasis on just got though.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

Because after years of being there, that's the key.

[B]

Yes, fair enough. All right, last one. Champion Homes, Ticker Sky. Sky. This is not quite tiny homes, but definitely manufactured homes. Think of mobile homes here. So, Emily, how bullish are you on tiny homes? Manufactured homes, it's not a big part of the overall home market in the United States.

[D]

It's a single digit percentage right now, at least for, for Champion Homes. But I do think this could be a breaker in the making. They're a leader in manufactured and module homes. We've under built housing in the United States for decades. So obviously, despite the fact that there's cyclicality here in the macro backdrop is so challenging, I still think that this is a type of opportunity that could be a leader in its space. And to me, that's indicative of a breaker.

[C]

It's never going to be a rule breaker until the financing issue gets resolved. You can go and get a 30 year or 15 year fixed rate mortgage on a, on a house, a regular house, but you cannot do that. You cannot do that on a manufactured mobile homes. And until manufactured housing gets allowed to be included in the same kind of financing, then it's going to stay a tiny portion of the market. It's the math that doesn't work around paying for the property.

[B]

That's fair. Yeah, that's, that's a really interesting point. All right, so to round it up, our, our panel says mostly faker, although I'm the outlier on Archer Aviation Ticker, achr, Faker on Hippo holdings, hipo. But some curiosity, some hope for Champion Homes Ticker Sky. Coming up next, we preview tomorrow's show with tomorrow's host Emily Flippen. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

[A]

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[B]

All right, welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Emily, you've got tomorrow's show. You've got. Wow. How about that? Jason's back. Jason's back tomorrow. Also, my Supernova Odyssey teammate Keith Speights on the show tomorrow. What have you got for us on tomorrow's show?

[D]

Yeah, thanks, Tim. Obviously, Jason and I are going to be back. We're going to be joined by Keith Speitz, and we're going to be discussing what I'm calling Quantum but in space. So we're going to be looking at earnings from coreweave while also looking at earnings earnings from some of these space companies, including Rocket Lab and ast. Space Mobile. Should be a really interesting episode.

[B]

I mean, I don't think you can say it that way if you're going to say it like that. It's like Quantum in space. Okay, well, stay tuned for tomorrow's show. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about at the Motley Pool. They have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. See our full advertising disclosure. Please check our show notes. Thank you to my guests today, Jason hall and Emily Flippen, our engineer, Stan Boyd, and our producer on and Chuck the Loo. I'm your host, Tim Byers. See you again tomorrow, Fools. Thank you for tuning in to Motley fool money.