Tariffs and Trade Wars Can’t Slow Big Tech’s Momentum

Summary

Motley Fool Money: Tariffs and Trade Wars Can’t Slow Big Tech’s Momentum Released on July 31, 2025

Hosts: Rachel Boren, Lou Whiteman, and John Quast

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1. Macroeconomic Overview

Rachel Boren opens the episode by highlighting the recent positive economic indicators in the United States. On [00:00], she notes that the U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2025, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increasing by 3%, a significant rise from a 0.5% contraction in Q1. Additionally, consumer spending surged by over 1%, despite a decline in exports and a substantial 30% drop in imports compared to Q1.

Key Points:

• GDP Growth: +3% in Q2 vs. -0.5% in Q1.
• Consumer Spending: Increased by over 1%.
• Trade Metrics: Exports declined single digits; imports fell by over 30%.

2. Consumer Spending Amid Economic Headwinds

John Quast provides a nuanced perspective on the robustness of consumer spending. At [01:16], he acknowledges the impressive consumer spending but warns of underlying vulnerabilities, particularly the $1.2 trillion in credit card debt, which has surged by 30% over the past three years. He suggests that while consumer spending is currently strong, much of it is fueled by credit, which may not be sustainable in the long term.

Notable Quote:

"There's $1.2 trillion in credit card debt out there right now. That's up 30% in just the last three years." — John Quast [01:16]

Despite these concerns, Quast remains optimistic, citing shifts in consumer behavior and spending patterns. He references companies like Kellanova, which has experienced a softening in demand for snacks, contrasted with Carvana, which has seen a 41% increase in car sales compared to the previous year, illustrating diverse consumer spending trends.

Lou Whiteman adds his perspective at [02:44], expressing greater concern for consumers who may feel the pinch from rising prices and tariffs, especially as the economy heads towards the back-to-school and holiday seasons. He anticipates that businesses will continue to drive GDP growth, possibly reversing the trends seen in Q2.

Rachel Boren emphasizes the role of a healthy job market, low unemployment, and rising wages in sustaining consumer spending. She also notes that while lower and middle-income consumers may be more susceptible to economic changes, higher-income consumers remain robust contributors to spending.

3. U.S. Tariff Policies and Impact on Big Tech

The discussion shifts to the impact of U.S. tariff policies on Big Tech. Rachel Boren outlines recent developments, including the shift of smartphone assembly from China to India and Vietnam due to aggressive tariff implementations. She details the August 1 deadline for countries to finalize trade agreements or face higher tariffs, mentioning recent deals with countries like Taiwan, Thailand, Cambodia, the UK, Vietnam, Japan, the EU, and South Korea. However, key partners like Canada, Australia, and India remain without agreements.

Notable Quote:

"President Trump announced a trade agreement on July 2 that saw the tariff imposed on Vietnam slash from 46% to 20%." — Rachel Boren [06:06]

Lou Whiteman discusses the strategic decisions of companies like Apple, which are adapting to the new tariff landscape by expanding manufacturing in India rather than returning to the U.S. He suggests that CEOs are choosing to navigate the uncertainty rather than making large-scale capital expenditures during volatile times.

John Quast offers his investment stance on the matter at [07:18], stating that he doesn’t closely monitor trade negotiations as his investment thesis accounts for such geopolitical risks. He emphasizes focusing on underlying trends that remain resilient despite policy changes.

Notable Quote:

"I want to swim as well as I can against the tides. I'm not trying to predict the tides." — John Quast [07:18]

Lou Whiteman concurs, highlighting the importance of long-term investment over short-term policy fluctuations.

4. Investment Strategy Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty

The hosts delve into investment strategies in the face of ongoing trade uncertainties. John Quast explains that he prefers investing in companies with strong, enduring trends that are less affected by immediate policy changes. He cites Mercado Libre as an example—a company benefiting from the rapid digitization of South American economies, making it a resilient long-term investment regardless of shifting trade policies.

Lou Whiteman reinforces the idea by stressing the advantage of long-term investing, suggesting that short-term noise from trade policies should not deter confidence in strong companies capable of weathering economic storms.

5. Big Tech Earnings and Aggressive AI Investments

The conversation shifts to recent earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta Platforms, both of which reported double-digit growth exceeding expectations. The primary focus is on their substantial investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Rachel Boren highlights Meta’s $85 billion in capital expenditures for the year, with CFO Susan Lee stating,

"We really believe that this is the time for us to make investments in AI." — Susan Lee [10:29]

Microsoft announced plans to spend $30 billion in the current quarter alone on AI initiatives, projecting an annualized expenditure surpassing that of Meta and Alphabet.

John Quast expresses enthusiasm about these investments, emphasizing the vast sums being funneled into AI and the potential benefits for shareholders. He notes that despite the hefty investments, these companies maintain shareholder-friendly practices like share buybacks and dividends, ensuring a balanced approach.

Notable Quote:

"It's a lot of money. And we're just talking about Meta. With that you start adding in Microsoft, Alphabet all the mega caps. They're going to collectively spend about 320 billion this year in capex compared to 230 billion last year." — John Quast [10:29]

Lou Whiteman points out Microsoft's clear use case for AI in corporate settings, leveraging platforms like Office 365 to deploy AI solutions to businesses, potentially giving it an edge over competitors.

6. Future of Big Tech: Next $4 Trillion Company

Looking ahead, the hosts speculate on which company might join Microsoft and Nvidia in achieving a $4 trillion market capitalization.

John Quast predicts Alphabet as the frontrunner, citing its fair valuation, robust financial position, and strong competitive advantages. He acknowledges the risk of potential breakup due to antitrust concerns but remains confident in Alphabet’s trajectory.

Notable Quote:

"I think that Alphabet is the best position to make a run at a $4 trillion market cap." — John Quast [13:38]

Lou Whiteman takes a riskier stance by naming Meta as a dark horse contender. Despite Meta not yet reaching the $2 trillion mark, he believes its powerhouse advertising business and strategic investments in AI position it well for future growth.

7. Conclusion

The episode concludes with Rachel Boren summarizing the optimistic outlook for Big Tech amidst ongoing trade tensions and economic shifts. She underscores the critical role of AI investments in driving future growth and maintaining competitive advantages. The hosts remind listeners to consider their investment strategies carefully, noting that while the Motley Fool provides insights, individual investment decisions should be made based on comprehensive personal research.

Final Thoughts:

• Big Tech remains resilient despite tariffs and trade wars.
• AI investments by leading companies are poised to shape future market dynamics.
• Long-term investment strategies focusing on robust, trend-driven companies are advocated over reacting to short-term policy changes.

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This summary captures the essential discussions and insights from the Motley Fool Money episode, providing a comprehensive overview for those who haven't listened.

Transcript

[Rachel Boren]

Foreign trade wars can't slow Big Tech's momentum. Motley fool money starts now. I'm Rachel Boren, joined today by Motley fool analysts Lou Whiteman and John Quast. Today we're talking Mag 7 spending plans and tariff turmoil. But we have to start with the big macro picture first. We learned Wednesday that the U.S. economy returned to growth in Q2. U.S. gross domestic product, which is a measure of the value of goods and services produced across the economy, rose by 3% in the second quarter. That's up from a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter of the year, and it's actually ahead of the consensus estimate. We also saw that consumer spending rose by more than 1% in Q2. Now, this was as exports declined single digits and imports fell by more than 30%, reversing a major surge that we saw in Q1 of 2025. You know, John, the big takeaway for me is consumer spending seems to be holding up well, even as businesses have turned cautious. But the question is, with all the headwinds the economy is facing, do you think that this can continue?

[John Quast]

Yes, this can absolutely continue, Rachel. Consumer spending can hold up. Listen, I could give you so many reasons on on why to be skeptical, on why the opposite is true. First and foremost, there's 1.2 trillion in credit card debt out there right now. That's up 30% in just the last three years. So it would seem that consumers are spending, yes, but it also seems like they're spending on credit. So that's a party that the music is going to end eventually, it would seem. And when that music ends, there could be a contraction to consumer spending. That said, I do say it can hold up because there's almost always a reason to be skeptical, and yet consumer spending almost always holds up. We will probably see shifts in consumer spending, and I think that it is playing out. So you take, for example, a company such as Kellanova. This is the company that was spun out from Kellogg's. It makes Pringles Pop Tarts. So it reported financial results this morning on July 31st, and it saw a softening of demand. And that is playing out for a variety of snacking companies. Right now. That's kind of a pervasive trend, people kind of trending away from snacks. That's interesting. On the other hand, you have a company such as Carvana. They're selling 41% more cars in the most recent quarter compared to a year ago. So there is this incredible shift of consumer spending, and it doesn't always make sense from snacks to cars. But yeah, overall I think that consumer spending can hold up.

[Lou Whiteman]

So John's right. You have to be crazy to bet against the American consumer. But you know what? I'm feeling a little crazy right now, Rachel. I'm more worried about the consumer right here than I am business. I think businesses can snap back as the companies adjust to whatever the new normal is with tariffs. But heading into back to school and then the holiday season, I do think Main street is going to feel the pushback of higher prices, maybe more so that tariffs have just been creeping in. My guess is if GDP does continue to push higher in the second half, and I do think it'll push higher into second half, I think it'll be a reverse of the second quarter with business not the consumer doing the heavy lifting.

[Rachel Boren]

You know, a healthy job market with low unemployment rates and rising wages, that's a primary driver of sustained consumer spending. And wage gains have been outpacing inflation. Consumers in some cases have more disposable income to spend. You know, rising asset values can contribute to that wealth effect and that can also make consumers feel more confident to spend. You know, we've seen that this dynamic where, you know, lower and middle income consumers might be more vulnerable to economic shifts, but those in more the top third of the income distribution area are thriving and account for a significant portion of spending. Now it's worth noting the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. Now we know the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates in September. You've got some economists predicting a further cut in December. According to recent reports. While the Fed held rates steady at their July meeting, the decision was not unanimous. There were two dissenting votes advocating for a rate cut. So with tariff policy seemingly changing by the minute, it's hard to know what to expect. More on tariffs and big tech in a minute. You are listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome back. We might not yet know the final tariff rates for various US Trade partners, but we are beginning to see an impact from the aggressive moves. India has reportedly overtaken China to become the top source of smartphones sold in the US and that's fueled by Apple's shift to assemble more phones in the country. Vietnam now ranks second and China has fallen from first a year ago to third. Now, Lou, the White House wanted to move smartphone assembly out of China, but I don't think India was the destination it had in mind. Does Tim Cook have to worry about backlash from Washington? And what are your thoughts on the tariff mayhem?

[Lou Whiteman]

I think Tim Cook probably believes he can outlast the tariff push. And I think he's probably right. Look, you know, this was the inevitable outcome of raising tariffs on China. There was never much of a chance that large corporations were just going to overnight shift manufacturing to the us. They'd have to build an entire supply chain manufacturing footprint. There's just so much complexity and they'd have to do it largely from scratch. It's just not going to happen. It didn't make sense for companies like Apple to do that. It made sense for them to lean into other markets where they are established. If tariffs do shift manufacturing back to the U.S. it'll take time. For now, the message from Washington with all of this chaos has been things shift so fast there's no reason for corporations to make any real massive capex moves. The chaos this week, that just reinforces it. I think the best move if you're a CEO is to roll with it and not make too many big company altering decisions. That's what Apple's doing in India and I think that makes sense. It's, it's what honestly they should be doing.

[Rachel Boren]

You know, we are now just hours away from The White House's Aug. 1 deadline for countries to strike trade deals or face higher tariffs. And we've seen a flurry of activity. We appear to be near deals with Taiwan, Thailand and Cambodia. The UK led the charge on trade agreements with the us. They struck one as early as May. Vietnam was the second to ink a deal with the Trump administration. President Trump announced a trade agreement on July 2 that saw the tariff imposed on Vietnam slash from 46 point to 20%. Japan was the second major Asian economy to come to an agreement with the US after China. They saw their tariff rate cut to 15%. They were also the first to see a lower preferential tariff rate for their key automobile sector. Now the EU's agreement with the US was struck just days ago and that was after lengthy negotiations. EU goods are now facing a 15% baseline tariff rate. South Korea is the latest country to reach an agreement as well on Thursday with the terms being somewhat similar to the one Japan received. It's worth noting though, the US has managed to make only about eight deals in 120 days. Some of our key trading partners remain without a deal so far that includes Canada, Australia and India. So John, the situation is and will remain fluid. But as an investor, how closely are you watching all of this wheeling and dealing?

[John Quast]

I am not watching it closely at all and I'll give you two reasons why. So first of all, When I buy a stock, I have an investment thesis. And so this thesis is basically my reasoning for why the stock I bought is going to outperform the market average. And in my thesis I try to conservatively account for risk, such as geopolitical risk, like what we're talking about right here. So if something can be broken, if my thesis can be broken based on changes in economic policy, I'm generally not that interested. So I'm looking for something that it doesn't really matter what these big changes in economic policy will be. The underlying trends for my thesis are still intact. I'll give you an example. Mercado Libre in South America right now, I've lived in South America. I can attest to how much paper money is still used in those economies. But that is changing so fast. Those economies are digitizing extremely fast. And MercadoLibre is a financial technology company. It's also an E commerce company. You start looking at the pervasive trend that the economy is going digital, that's not gonna change. And so I really see Mercado Libre being a longtime winner regardless of what changes happen in the economic policy. Another reason I'm not really watching this closely is because even if there is a trade deal in place, even when something comes down, it seems like, and I believe this is fair to say, things in Washington these days are far from settled. And so if we get news today, that might change tomorrow. So I really don't see a ton of value of following it too closely. I really think about investing great Charlie Munger. He said, I, I figure that I want to swim as well as I can against the tides. I'm not trying to predict the tides. And I think that's a good rule to live by.

[Lou Whiteman]

I think that's spot on. One of the advantages of being a long term investor is kind of you can. Everything near term is noise, right? I'm looking for companies that whatever may come can survive and thrive over the long term. I don't necessarily want to predict the weather. I just want to know that sometimes it's sunny, sometimes it rains. And I want companies that can do okay with both. So yeah, I think that's. That's exactly right, John.

[Rachel Boren]

I think that's right, guys. Up next, we have Microsoft and Meta earnings and their aggressive AI spending plans. We'll be back with you in a minute. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Microsoft and Meta platforms were both out with earnings last night. Now both companies posted double digit growth that easily topped expectations. But the focus was on spending plans, Meta Platform's CFO Susan Lee said, quote, we really believe that this is the time for us to make investments in AI and that's really backing up the company's planned $85 billion in capex this year. Microsoft for its part, said that they expect to spend 30 billion in the current quarter alone, which at an annualized rate would be even more than Meta or Alphabet is spending. So you know John, the numbers here are almost mind numbingly large. But the core businesses of these companies, they are generating billions in cash so they can afford the investment. Should investors be worried or excited about these spending plans?

[John Quast]

I believe that investors should be absolutely thrilled, ecstatic with these plans. So you're right, these numbers are mind numbing. In fact, they're so big we really can't even wrap our heads around them. 85 billion. Look, there are 500 companies in S&P. 500. With 85 billion, Meta could purchase any one of about 75% of these companies, right? These are the biggest, most profitable companies in the US and they can buy most of them with 85 billion. So that's a lot of money. And we're just talking about meta. With that you start adding in Microsoft, Alphabet all the mega caps. They're going to collectively spend about 320 billion this year in capex compared to 230 billion last year. That's nearly a 40% jump from last year. I think if you're a shareholder of any of these companies, it's basically good news because they need to invest in their futures at scale and so it's going to cost a lot of money. But these companies have also made many shareholder friendly moves in recent years such as share buybacks and dividends. And so I feel like there's a good balance here. I think beyond that though, investors need to think where's that 320 billion going to go? That's a lot of cash. I think companies such as Nvidia and AMD are going to see ongoing strong demand for their chips. I think even industrial players such as H Vac and electrical companies, company Comfort System usa, they've got a rising backlog right now as they're trying to meet all this demand for the facilities being built to support AI. So I think there's a lot to be excited about when you see how much money is getting thrown around.

[Rachel Boren]

You know, it's clear that Meta and Microsoft are increasing their investments in AI because they see it as a crucial driver for future growth and also to maintain their competitive advantage in various sectors. Now, you know, it's interesting because of course, Meta has fallen a bit behind the competition here the last few years. But then you have its recent launch of its Meta space Superintelligence labs. Their hiring spree that they've been on in a bid to catch up in the AI race. It's getting a lot of attention from investors. Lou, what are your thoughts on what we're seeing here?

[Lou Whiteman]

So, to me, Microsoft has the most clear use case for AI outside of just refining its own business or internal work. Alphabet and Meta are mostly deploying AI for internal uses. Alphabet is hoping to use AI to kind of reinvent search, but it's kind of early days there. But Microsoft, thanks to 365, thanks to Office, all these massive businesses, they have a clear lane to the corporate user to deploy AI. It may not be a sustainable advantage. There could be a way to catch up, but I think it's a real advantage right now over these just cloud players. I think we're going to see companies with those strong B2B connections, like Microsoft, like Salesforce, even Oracle, I think they're going to lead the way on, like, deploying AI to the workforce, this next step that is really kind of showing the payoff in all this investment, you.

[Rachel Boren]

Know, Investors pushed Microsoft higher following earnings. The company joined Nvidia as the second member of the $4 trillion market cap club. So time for a bold prediction, guys. What will be the next company to break the $4 trillion market cap threshold? John, Tell us.

[John Quast]

Rachel. This might be a little bit of a surprise, but I think that Alphabet is the best position to make a run at a $4 trillion market cap. When you look at the valuations of the mega cap companies, for me, Alphabet is the one that makes the most sense. It does seem like it has a fair valuation right now, but when it comes to its financial position, competitive strengths, opportunities, it's as good as any of them, if not better than others. So I think the only risk here is that it gets broken up. But honestly, any company making a run at 4 trillion has to be worried about being broken up at some point.

[Lou Whiteman]

Yeah, I hate to go into Alphabet here because I think you're probably right, but I'll take the dark horse. Meta is currently sixth on the list. It isn't even quite 2 trillion yet. But look, that advertising business is a powerhouse and I don't see another business like it elsewhere with less headwinds up ahead than I think Alphabet and some of the others. So I'll take Meta, though. I'll be honest, I don't think any of these guys get there in the near term, so it could be a long race.

[Rachel Boren]

It is certainly an exciting time to be a tech investor and to be investing in the world of AI so many opportunities there. As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes for Lou Whiteman and Don Quast, as well as our man behind the glass, Bart Janan, and the entire Motley fool money team. I'm Rachel Warren. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.