Transcript
A (0:05)
Breaking news. The Supreme Court has struck down Trump's tariffs. So what's next, Molly? Fool Money starts now. Everybody needs money.
B (0:27)
That's why they call it money.
C (0:37)
From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.
A (0:40)
Welcome to Motley Fool Money. I'm Travis Hoy. I'm joined by Lou Whiteman and John Quast. Guys, we had a show planned in about three minutes. Before we started, we got news that the tariffs that Trump implemented last year have been overturned by the Supreme Court. We're still trying to process all this information. But, Lou, there was a lot of data that came out today. GDP came in a little bit worse than expected at 1.4% growth year over year. Inflation was a little bit hotter than expected with that core inflation number up 3% year over year. And now we get this tariff news. What in the world should we be thinking?
C (1:15)
Chaos. Right? And the best form of chaos. It's more complicated than you think, because it was only some of the tariffs that were struck down. They're the ones that were put in place due to kind of emergency situations where all of a sudden everything was an emergency. Look, let's break it down real. The tariff case. The Supreme Court said we don't know what to do about compensation. So that needs to play out. The administration claims they have other ways to do this. So I think that's just a big, who knows? You can't really break it down.
A (1:44)
Let's talk about that compensation part because that is interesting. This isn't going to be, hey, these are overturned. And here's your $175 billion or so back. May eventually happen, but we are kind of in limbo. So if you own a stock that has been paying tariffs, you may get a windfall in the future. You also may not. And it may just be like, sorry about that.
C (2:06)
And who even gets it? Cause if you own a stock and they passed half of that tariff cost along to the consumer, I don't think, I mean, are they gonna try and do that? So, yeah, it's a mess. We were kind of expecting this. I think we just kind of say, okay, this happened. We'll see from here. The inflation number, to me, that's sort of a nothing burger. We were expecting, I mean, we were basically expecting almost that. So look, the inflation, the big debate is, is this a one time thing? Can, can the economy deal with a one time thing or will it just continue? I think that that just plays out down the line. The interesting thing to me was the GDP number because that was about half of what we were expecting, it was the lowest number, I think, and at least in a few quarters, everyone's going to say ignore this because of the government shutdown. And indeed, federal spending was down 24%. That's the lowest, the biggest decline since the COVID quarter in 2020. Yes, some of that is going to be a bounce back, but let's kind of dig a little deeper. There was trade weakness, which is tied to all these tariffs. So maybe it'll turn around, but that's big. And consumer spending, Travis, the largest share of the economic activity decelerated to a 2.4% pace from 3.5% in the previous period. That, to me, is the most interesting part of this and the part. A lot of this looks like noise. A lot of this. There's a. Yeah, but I mean, I just gave you like 300 yeah buts here. But that consumer spending number, that's the one to watch. My hot take and without having time to go through all of this really big, is that, yes, there's going to be a lot of Chicken Littles out there. Yes, there's going to be the other side of it. People saying, this is a nothing burger. There is a here here. It's probably not the Chicken Little here here. It's not like everybody panic, but there is trends here that are not in the direction that we want to go.
