Motley Fool Money – Episode Summary
Episode Title: The 2025 IPO Comeback Tour
Date: December 16, 2025
Host: Emily Flippen
Guests: Jason Hall and Samit Deo
Overview
This episode dives deep into the IPO resurgence of 2025, examining the drivers behind the market’s revival, spotlighting the year’s standout IPOs (notably in AI and fintech), and speculating on the outlook and risks for 2026. The team debates whether it ever makes sense for investors to buy IPOs on day one, using the prospective SpaceX IPO as a springboard for discussion.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. What Triggered the 2025 IPO Revival?
- Post-pandemic bounce-back: The IPO market roared back in 2025 after a muted 2024, with Q3 seeing the highest capital raises since 2021.
- Catalysts:
- Bullish stock markets and falling interest rates spurred risk appetite.
- Momentum “whetted the appetite of banks, companies, and investors alike.” (Emily, 00:40)
- Time passing healed the wounds from the disastrous 2021-22 IPO cohort and SPAC mania.
- Presidential election cycle:
- Data shows IPOs tend to rebound in the year following a U.S. presidential election, due to reduced uncertainty.
- “Time heals all wounds, and I think that's true in public markets, too.” – Jason Hall (02:18)
- Macro factors can still override this pattern (e.g., 2020 COVID-19 spike).
2. AI: The Engine of IPO Demand
- AI leads the charge:
- 43% of the $38B raised via IPOs in 2025 came from AI-related companies (Samit, 05:04).
- Most successful: Infrastructure (CoreWeave) and software (Figma); AI model-builders mostly stayed private, raising even more capital off public markets.
- Risks of an AI bubble:
- If the AI fervor cools in 2026, IPO activity could slow sharply.
- “AI demand is what's driving so much of the markets right now.” – Samit Deo (06:05)
3. Biggest 2025 IPOs: The ‘Rule Breakers’ Analysis
Key companies highlighted:
- CoreWeave (CRW):
- The “poster child for AI IPO access,” debuting at $40 and reaching $180 before pulling back (08:26).
- Strong past price appreciation and possible overvaluation fit classic “Rule Breaker” traits.
- Figma (FIG):
- Stood out for Samit as the year’s most interesting IPO due to being a “top dog, first mover in AI-based collaborative design.”
- Trading below Adobe’s failed $20B offer yet showing improving economics and strong founder ownership (Samit, 09:15).
- “Already proven to be a rule breaker in its core market of web-based collaborative design.” – Samit Deo (09:15)
- Klarna (European fintech):
- Unique to see a two-decade-old company and bank with detailed public financials go public (Jason, 10:49).
- Circle (crypto, USDC stablecoin):
- Notable for its rapid expansion and for winning conditional approval to become a federally regulated trust bank.
- “What a time to be alive. You guys remember when crypto's biggest selling point was decentralization and not being tethered to the traditional financing banking system?” – Jason Hall (11:27)
4. Looking Ahead: 2026 IPOs and SpaceX
- SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO plans:
- Could be valued at up to $1.5T; likely to dominate attention and suck oxygen from smaller IPOs (Samit, 14:53).
- Worries about a cash-burning business commanding such a valuation and knock-on effects for the broader IPO market.
- “At a proposed valuation of $1.5 trillion for a cash-burning business, it gets me more worried than excited.” – Samit Deo (15:09)
- Market dynamics:
- Large, hyped IPOs can crowd out smaller offerings.
- Institutional buyers may feel pressure to participate or risk “career risk” (Samit, 15:22).
- SpaceX’s (likely) initial lack of profits could keep it out of the S&P 500 until financials improve.
Should Investors Buy IPOs on Day One?
Jason Hall’s Perspective:
- Generally not a fan: Risks are skewed against individual investors, IPOs are often “an exit strategy for existing investors,” and newly public companies may not be battle-tested outside the venture-funded bubble (16:50–18:33).
- Approach: Wait 1–2 years before buying, unless making a very small, speculative bet.
- Key point: “I’m not interested in being somebody else’s bag holder.” (17:56)
- High-growth IPOs are risky; limited data on operational performance under public scrutiny.
- FOMO vs. process: “Part of regret minimization can be when you feel a lot of conviction and you figure out how to see the difference between conviction and FOMO.” (20:30)
Samit Deo’s Perspective:
- Occasional exceptions:
- Intuition, mixed with sound analysis, sometimes warrants a small stake in truly paradigm-shifting IPOs.
- Biggest regret: Not buying Google on day one due to overthinking.
- “If you find a paradigm shifting company that your gut is telling you this, this could be big... why miss the opportunity to even invest a small allocation?” – Samit Deo (19:32)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|---------|-------| | 01:23 | Jason Hall | “Bull markets beget more IPOs… Time heals all wounds, and I think that's true in public markets, too.” | | 05:04 | Samit Deo | “If you look at that 38 billion that was raised this year, about 43% ... was AI related.” | | 09:15 | Samit Deo | “Figma... already proven to be a rule breaker in its core market..." | | 11:27 | Jason Hall | “What a time to be alive. You guys remember when crypto's biggest selling point was decentralization and not being tethered to the traditional financing banking system? Guys, this is just wild.” | | 15:09 | Samit Deo | “At a proposed valuation of $1.5 trillion for a cash-burning business, it gets me more worried than excited.” | | 17:56 | Jason Hall | “I'm not interested in being somebody else's bag holder.” | | 19:32 | Samit Deo | “So much investing is heavily relying on qualitative and quantitative analysis. But the dirty little secret of great investors is ... a lot of intuition to guide them.” | | 20:30 | Jason Hall | “...part of regret minimization can be when you feel a lot of conviction and you figure out how to see the difference between conviction and FOMO…” |
Important Timestamps
- 00:30–03:50: 2025 IPO market catalysts, including post-bear market optimism and election cycle impact.
- 05:01–06:06: How AI investment dominated IPO trends, and what might happen if the bubble bursts.
- 08:18–12:13: Analysis of the year’s biggest IPOs (CoreWeave, Figma, Klarna, Circle).
- 14:16–15:43: SpaceX’s potential IPO and implications for 2026.
- 16:50–20:51: Should you buy IPOs on day one? Practical frameworks and personal philosophies.
Conclusion
The 2025 IPO market was driven by bullish sentiment, falling rates, and—above all—AI-everything. Rule-breaking innovators like Figma and crypto disruptors like Circle stood out, while the shadow of splashy offerings like SpaceX looms over 2026. Buying IPOs at launch remains as risky as ever—tempting for those with strong conviction or FOMO, but discipline and regret minimization are key.
As Jason Hall summed up: “If it's a great company, it's still going to be a great company in a year or two.” (16:50)