Motley Fool Money — "The Best Investment in 2025 (So Far...) Isn’t What You Think"

Date: September 4, 2025
Host: Tyler Crowe
Analysts: Matt Frankel, John Quast

Episode Overview

This episode dives into 2025’s most unexpected outperformer—gold—outshining both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin so far this year. The Motley Fool team discusses the drivers behind gold’s surge, what it means for investors, and why traditional equity markets haven’t kept pace. The conversation then pivots to a candid breakdown of Figma’s volatile IPO performance and the current wave of new IPOs hitting the market, as analysts each spotlight an upcoming public offering that’s captured their interest, scrutinizing both their strengths and concerns.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

The Market's Wild Ride and Gold's Outperformance

• 2025 has been "a wild ride for the markets," with the S&P 500 down 14% at one point, but now up nearly 10% YTD. (00:34)
• Gold emerges as the star performer:
  • S&P 500: +10% YTD
  • Bitcoin ("digital gold"): +21% YTD
  • Gold: +36% YTD
• Only three S&P 500 constituents have doubled this year—Palantir, Seagate, and Newmont Mining (a gold miner). (01:43)
• Quote:
  "That is as odd of a trio as I could possibly think of."
  —John Quast (01:43)

What’s Driving Gold?

• The surge in gold and Newmont is supported by actual profitability, not wild overvaluation—Newmont trades at around 8x EV/EBITDA, with improved focus on top-tier mines post-asset sales. (02:50)
• Underlying factors behind gold’s rise:
  • Ongoing global tariff drama ("tariffs are kind of like a reality show this year") causing continuous market uncertainty.
  • Interest rate uncertainty—markets watching for possible Fed cuts.
  • Volatile earnings from high-profile companies (e.g., Nvidia).
  • Investors flock to gold and similar assets as safe havens amid unpredictable policy shifts and economic data. (04:04)
  • "The tariff drama, I think, has been the biggest contributor this year." —Matt Frankel (04:54)

Do the Analysts Invest in Gold?

• Matt Frankel: Only holds a few gold coins for fun, not as a real investment. "But I kind of wish I had had a big old gold bar at the beginning of this year." (05:13)
• John Quast: Steers away from gold, focusing on growth assets. "Gold is something that protects my money, not something that grows my money." (05:25)

Looking Ahead: Gold vs. S&P 500

• Both John and Matt predict the S&P 500 will beat gold over the next year, but admit macro factors (rates, inflation) could swing the outcome.
  "That's like asking me what tomorrow's pick three lottery numbers are going to be." —Matt Frankel (06:04)

Figma’s Tumultuous Post-IPO Ride

Figma's Stock and Earnings Recap

• Figma shares dropped 17% after its Q2 earnings, sending "some investors...to the exits." (06:59)
• The story:
  • Revenue growth slowed—46% at IPO, 41% this quarter, projected 33% next quarter.
  • Net dollar retention rate also slipped from 132% to 129%.
  • Still trading at a heady ~26x sales. (07:45)
  • Fear about AI encroachment on business.
• Quote:
  "A 41% revenue growth rate is an impressive number...But a slowdown is a slowdown, especially from a stock that roughly tripled right after its IPO."
  —Matt Frankel (08:58-09:18)

Figma’s Trading Volatility Explained

• Figma only floated a small number of shares at IPO; most shares remain locked up or tied to options, leading to hyperactive daily trading. "It’s almost like engineered to be that way." —Tyler Crowe (10:13)

Perspectives on IPO Investing

• Matt Frankel: Occasionally invests in IPOs, but is wary unless he feels strongly about the business.
  "In general, I steer clear of IPOs unless I feel really strongly about the business one way or the other." (11:14)
• John Quast: Prefers to wait and assess proven performance before committing cash.
  "Talk is cheap, but whiskey costs money. And there is a lot of talk when companies go public." (11:43)

Upcoming IPOs — Picks and Analysis

Note: The team reviews a slate of "legitimate" companies, not speculative or low-quality IPOs, going public next week. (13:27)

Matt Frankel’s Pick: Gemini (Crypto Exchange)

• Ticker: GEMI (NASDAQ)
• Business: Crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins.
• Pros:
  • Crypto market remains huge; innovative products (e.g., crypto rewards credit card).
  • Relatively modest stock-based compensation.
  • Regulatory environment currently "extremely crypto-friendly."
• Cons:
  • Fierce competition; Gemini only #24 by volume.
  • Still unprofitable.
  • Questions why the cash-rich founders need to raise public equity now.
• Quote:
  "I'd want to know more about their future growth strategies and why do they need to go public...why do they feel now's the time?" —Matt Frankel (13:58-15:21)

Tyler Crowe’s Pick: BlackRock Coffee Roasters

• Ticker: BRCB
• Business: Small-format coffee chain, similar to Dutch Bros, launched in Oregon.
• Pros:
  • Strong same-store sales growth (10%), measured approach to expansion.
  • Brought in professional leadership (ex-Panera exec) rather than relying solely on founders.
• Cons:
  • Messy pre-IPO corporate structure, with unclear alignment for new shareholders.
  • Question remains whether it can reach and sustain profitability while scaling.
• Quote:
  "Rarely do things that are like this end up being shareholder friendly. They tend to not be at least for minority shareholders." —Tyler Crowe (16:23)

John Quast’s Pick: Figure Technologies

• Ticker: FIGR (NASDAQ)
• Business: Blockchain-based lending, focused primarily on HELOCs, claims big cost and speed advantages.
• Pros:
  • 76% faster application process, 90% lower origination costs versus banks.
  • Led by Mike Cagney, ex-SoFi founder ("an adult in the room").
  • Already profitable (15% net margin).
• Cons:
  • "Material weakness" flagged in accounting, an alarming sign, especially in fintech.
  • Uncertain competitive moat; unclear if advantages are sustainable.
• Quote:
  "Given crypto's history, that's certainly something that is not desirable. That material weakness—they need to get that under control."
  —John Quast (18:41)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "The tariff drama, I think has been the biggest contributor this year, so up 36%." —Matt Frankel (04:57)
• "Talk is cheap, but whiskey costs money." —John Quast (11:43)
• "Crypto, coffee and collateralized loans. Some interesting ideas. We'll see what happens with it." —Tyler Crowe (19:54)
• "I steer clear of IPOs unless I feel really strongly about the business one way or the other." —Matt Frankel (11:14)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:34 — 2025 market recap & gold's surprise rise
• 01:43 — The top-performing S&P 500 stocks (Palantir, Seagate, Newmont)
• 03:32 — Factors behind volatility and the gold rush
• 05:56 — Predictions: S&P 500 vs. gold by September 2026
• 06:59 — Figma's shaky post-earnings, IPO volatility explained
• 11:14 — Analyst opinions on IPO investing
• 13:27 — Upcoming IPO picks: Gemini, BlackRock Coffee, Figure Technologies
• 15:21 — Analyst takes on IPO advantages/risks

Takeaways

• Gold's Surprisingly Strong Year: Amid tariff and macro uncertainty, gold has far outpaced both equities and even Bitcoin in 2025.
• Valuations Still Matter: Newmont's rise is grounded in real profitability, not hype or fear alone.
• IPO Investing Remains Fraught: Hot IPOs like Figma can be exceedingly volatile, especially when only a sliver of shares are floated.
• Due Diligence Needed for New Listings: Even well-known and innovative companies (Gemini, Figure Technologies) raise real questions on governance, competitive edge, and transparency.

For investors: The episode serves as a reminder that the "obvious" winners aren’t always what headlines would have you believe, and sound fundamentals—plus skepticism—remain invaluable as new names enter the public markets.