Loading summary
Transcript33 lines
- [00:00]
A
Foreign.
- [00:05]
B
Netflix reported earnings last night and the stock is down today. What's going on? Motley Fool Money starts now. Welcome to Motley Fool Money. I'm Travis Hoyam, joined by Rachel Warren and Lou Whiteman. Big news over the last 2024 hours has been Netflix. They reported earnings yesterday. The numbers looked pretty good, but the Stock's down about 3%. As we're recording, it was down about 5% to the open. But Rachel, what did you see from the results from Netflix?
- [00:42]
A
I mean, you know, despite the market's response, I would say it was a pretty good report for the company. And I want to talk about a few of these numbers and metrics. So Netflix, their Q4 revenue was just a little over 12 billion. That was actually up about 18% from one year ago. Earnings per share of $0.56. Now, both were slightly, slightly above what Wall street had been projecting. Now, the main driver of the stock drop that we saw post earnings had to do with management's forecast for slower revenue growth in 2026. They're looking for anywhere between 12 to 14% growth compared to 16% in 2025. And they also guided for lower than expected Q1 profit expectations. Now, I think it's important to remember Netflix is performing pretty strongly as a mature business. This is a much more mature company than even five, six, six years ago. They are really navigating a period of significant transition and I think that's feeding a lot into investor uncertainty. They reached a massive milestone of about 325 million global paid memberships last year. They added about 23 million subscribers over the course of 2025. The ad business is growing significantly. They're aggressively moving into live sports and events. And of course there's that high stakes all cash bidding war to acquire Warner Brothers. So I think again, this is the undisputed leader in streaming. They've got that HU core engine. They're trading some short term profit comfort for a bet on long term dominance. And that's something investors need to watch.
- [02:08]
C
But that's the thing, right? Like Rachel said, it is a maturing business and we're just going to have to get used to that. This whole last six month or year of Netflix hasn't been about Netflix is falling apart or the sky is falling. It's about management recognizing that they are at a new stage in their existence and reacting. Look, they're going to spend more on content this year. 10% content increase over 18 billion this year. Content is not cheap. That's partially why they are looking to acquire more of it. They are doing a big deal. There's going to be costs with that. They need to raise cash. They're pausing buybacks. They are. Everything they're doing is rational. And if you are a long term Netflix holder, you should be relatively okay, at least with their guidance, being conservative and what they're doing.
- [02:57]
D
But.
- [02:57]
C
But again, when someone tells you who they are, believe them and what Netflix is doing is telling you that the hyper growth rah rah days are over and we need to navigate the world as a mature company.
- [03:11]
B
How do you think about that transition, Lou? Because I think that is probably the right way to think about Netflix. We've been talking on some of these shows about YouTube is actually taking share in view time on TVs. So Netflix, not necessarily in the super, super strong position that they were in a decade ago when they were a very, very clear leader in streaming, but it's still a pretty expensive stock. I'll just go through some of the numbers here. The five year compound annual growth rate is 12.6%. That's a solid growth rate, but it's not something that you would typically see trading for a really high multiple. But yet the enterprise value to sales is 9. The price to earnings multiple is 35. Lou, are we in a period here where you're transitioning from being this hot upstart, this high growth company, the world is your oyster, to you've kind of conquered the world and now you're in extraction mode and you know, maybe the shareholder base even shifts over that period of time to people who are looking at what's the return on investment, what's the capital spend, all the boring stuff that we talk about with older companies.
- [04:17]
C
Yeah, I think that's exactly it. But real quick on YouTube, yes, YouTube is doing great, but this is not a winner take all game, I think. I mean, that's more for pundits, for people like us to look at, you know, who's winning, who's losing. There is plenty of room in my head, at least for Netflix to win and others to win. I mean, I can't imagine that this turns into that. I think Netflix is very fine. The problem is that for years Netflix was great and fine as a downgrade. And so I think we're going through this in real time and we have a very, very, very disruptive corporate action that we'll talk about later kind of, you know, in the middle of it all. But like, I would love to sort of strip out all of the M and A talk and all of that and Just kind of look at, you know, this quarter and the quarter is both really, really good and not as great as it was before. And again, I think that that is the important takeaway here. You know, strip three, four, five years down the line, they will, through corporate actions have found growth mojo or I think it's more about sustaining what they have. But look it, it just as you say, when you have all the customers in the world, there are only so many levers you can pull. I would note they say ad sales are going to double in 2026 and it was at 1.5 billion in 2025. So that's good. That is a lever they still have to pull. This business is healthy. This business is fine. This is not a business that's going to triple in the next two years or three years though. And for so long Netflix has just been eating everyone's lunch. I do think there's an adjustment, Rachel.
- [05:59]
B
The one number that kind of jumps out when you look at their forecast is you're looking at a year over year revenue growth rate going to 15.3%. That's their guidance. This quarter, this most recent reported quarter was 17.6. Then it was 17.2%. So your, your growth rate is coming down and that's, I think the worry. Is that something that we should be worried about as investors?
- [06:21]
A
I really think that a lot of that goes back to just the maturity of the business. And you have to look at how a lot of the levers for growth for Netflix have really evolved over the last few years as well. I mean that ad business of course is growing rapidly as Lou mentioned. It's also worth noting that ad revenue in 2025 was about two and a half times more than in 2024. So it's a different lever for growth than we've seen for the business in the past. This is a more mature company than we knew several years ago. But I think that if you are a long term shareholder in, this is a quality company, they're a leader in their respective space. They continue to be very well financially fortified. And I think that that is something that can give us a lot of confidence in where the business is going as they evolve into their next growth story.
- [07:07]
B
This is not the only thing happening at Netflix. We've alluded to the acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery. We're going to discuss that next. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
- [07:16]
D
Hi, I'm Neal. And I'm Ken. And we are from the Triviality Podcast, a pub trivia style game show. Where a lack of seriousness meets a little bit of knowledge. Join us each week for an hour long game of general knowledge trivia featuring special guests from around the world, plus tons of extra themed episodes. If you want to improve your trivia game or you just want to scream at us in your car when we get easy questions wrong, then we're the show for you. Find triviality on all your favorite podcast apps. But you know that because you're already listening to a podcast.
- [07:46]
B
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. The other big news from Netflix is they changed their Warner Brothers Discovery bid to all cash. This is something I think we've talked about on the show, that this was an option that they were eyeing, especially because the stock portion of their offer went down in value as Netflix stock went down in value and Paramount came in and said, hey, we're offering all cash. That's, that's a better deal, isn't it? So, Rachel, what do we know about this? Right now it looks like it's going to be about 83% billion, which Netflix is a big company, but that's a lot of money to pay for Warner Brothers Discovery and it's going to require a lot of debt, too.
- [08:25]
A
Yeah, you're absolutely right on that. So they've officially amended their bid for Warner Brothers Discovery to an all cash offer of 2,775 per share. So values the transaction at about 72 billion or about 83 billion, including debt, which is notable. And this is very much a strategic shift to lock in a deal with, with Warner Brothers Discovery's board, which really unanimously supports the offer. And as you noted, that all cash structure removes the volatility of Netflix's stock price from the deal equation. It provides shareholders of Warner Brothers with immediate predictable value. Now, the deal, of course, is designed to give Netflix ownership of an incredible content library ranging from HBO Max to Harry Potter, Game of Thrones and so forth. And it's also worth remembering Warner Brothers Discovery board members, they have rejected the parent amount offer. You know, they've viewed it as a much riskier leveraged buyout. The Netflix deal, I think is broadly viewed as a better capitalized one. It's got a much lower leverage ratio of under four. It's, I think, important to also highlight that all cash bid requires Netflix to increase its bridge loans from about 34 billion to about 42 billion. So it does add significant debt to its balance sheet. And if the deal were to be blocked by regulators, which is a question, as it always is, Netflix could be liable for a 5.8 billion breakup fee. So those are some of the key figures there. I do think that shift to an all cash deal, it's a bold move. It prioritizes their securement of the acquisition. I think the risk is something of a trade off. There might be some short term financial pressure, but the idea is this is going to consolidate Netflix's market power, help them achieve their long term content goals. I still think the acquisition is good news for the business, but investors should be aware of exactly what it entails.
- [10:14]
B
Lou, Debt is not new to Netflix. They actually had $15.8 billion in debt at the end of 2020, but that's actually been coming down and that debt was used to buy content and kind of build their moat around their business. This is very different. This is a really, really significant amount of debt. Is it something to be worried about?
- [10:33]
C
Kind of, but not really. Look, they're using debt to acquire content here, just with a different kind. Okay. And you can say it's more of a sure bet or you can say it's older, it's not innov. Rachel mentioned there's so much hemming and hauling about this debt. I'm not here to be too Pollyanna. But look, this is how deals happen, okay? Bridge loans going up, big deal. The whole point of a bridge loan is it's temporary. And the risk in a bridge loan is can you pay it down quick? They have already worked out how to structure long term finance for most of the original bridge loan. I'll note they were going to issue stock. They can very easily now just sell stock to raise cash. I think there's a real kind of naivete about the debt. Like, oh no, they're taking on debt. I think that they can handle it. But yes, it does make this a different company. And again, this is part of our discussion before is that Netflix is no longer this nimble upstart. It will impact them. They will have to manage cash, but they generate a lot of cash and they have a lot of levers to pull to raise cash. Like I say, implicit in the original deal was the shareholder, then the number of shares was going to go up. So a secondary right here makes all the sense in the world. They might want to time it right. Don't worry about bridge loans, worry about long term financing. It'll come together, they can handle it. It does give them less flexibility. Yes, that's what debt does. But you're less flexible if you get a mortgage.
- [12:14]
B
Lou, One of the things that I always think about with some of these deals is we can only analyze them based on what we know today. And what we don't know is what management is talking about is what Netflix's business looks like in the future. It seems like it's very possible that they close this deal and within a year or two after that, suddenly we see tiers within Netflix. So now instead of, you know, I think I'm paying something like $20 a month for Netflix now, if I want to add the HBO content, I want to have Game of Thrones and all that library. Maybe that goes to $30 a month or maybe it's even $40 a month. Is that another lever that they can pull? Because it does seem like they, we talked about they've gotten to now 325 million subscribers worldwide. That's not an easy lever to pull to increase that number at this point. The price lever is easier to pull. And if you pull Warner Brothers Discovery's content into your library now, suddenly you have a little bit more power. There's really only Disney that has that kind of content library. And now you're, you're kind of playing a two man game. Is that a way to think about it? Is that the unknowns are really financial upside just through pricing?
- [13:22]
C
I think what, I think what you demonstrated, none of us know what they're going to do.
- [13:26]
A
But just.
- [13:27]
C
Yes, there is a lot of optionality. I mean, whether it's going to be tears or tears. Right. You know, that's, that's what we'll have to see. But look, I mean, arguably HBO does have a reputation as a premium brand that you could charge extra for. I don't know if Disney has that even, you know, so, so I do.
- [13:44]
B
Think that, well, ESPN would be the side.
- [13:47]
C
Well, yeah, but, but not in entertainment. So, you know, there are, there are unique assets. The answer to your question is none of us know. But it points out the fact that, that we are judging this deal based on the Netflix of the last few years and how they have operated. We are not really thinking about their optionality to future. And I will still, I've said this before, but I will, as a shareholder, I will trust this particular management team to have a plan and figure it out. More so than I would almost any other management team in this industry. So, you know, I mean, I don't think we should be too Pollyanna. This changes the company. But again, I think they're saying who they are and whether they need to go. And I do think this management team has earned some benefit of the doubt here with this.
- [14:39]
A
I will say, I do think that this acquisition as well is going to be really important for their growth story moving forward. I mean, this is an exceptional and storied library of content that they acquire should this Warner Brothers discovery acquisition go through. And I think that that could also provide a lot of the growth that investors have sort of come to miss from the business over the last few years, particularly as they got used to that growth story during the pandemic era. Obviously, Netflix's internal content generation machine is exceptional, but they have historically also rel on acquisitions to drive that growth. And I think acquiring a library of this kind could be really integral to that. So I think that's something for investors to really watch closely.
- [15:19]
B
Definitely something that we're going to keep an eye on. And with the stock dropping, I'm not a shareholder, but I'm getting more intrigued by the day. When we come back, we're going to talk about some macro news. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
- [15:31]
E
Hi there, it's Leo Laporte. Every week at our Tech News Roundtable, this week in tech, I bring together some of the smartest journalists and tech experts to make sense of the stories that actually matter to you. We cut through the noise, have real conversations and give you a clear look at the trends shaping the future. It's smart, it's fun, it's the show I love doing the most. You can download and subscribe at TWiT TV.
- [15:54]
B
TWiT. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. There's a lot going on in markets, but one thing that has caught our eye is interest rates. Not only in the US but also in Japan. And they're moving higher. Lu, what does that mean for investors?
- [16:08]
C
We shall see. Right? I mean what it means. And so much is made of the Fed and especially in this last year, the way the president has sort of been badgering the Fed, we are seeing the limits of what the Fed can do and what short term interest rate policy can do. We've been saying this for a while, but we're seeing it now play out in real time. Interesting.
- [16:28]
B
Can you explain that the Fed does not set the 10 year rate or more?
- [16:32]
C
No, they set overnight rates.
- [16:33]
B
So it's a very, very short term rate.
- [16:35]
C
Right. And theoretically everything should move together as this goes. But real world is not theoretical. I think it's interesting if you just look at the last kind of few days, what has happened with long term rates, it has basically reversed about $400 billion in mortgage buying that tried to bring the mortgage rate down in an election year. So it just goes to show you that I keep saying this. I'm an equity investor, not a bond investor. So I say this very humbly. The bond is smarter than the equity market or it's at least it's more forward looking by default. You have to be. There are so many fewer variables. You're just kind of looking at long term trends right now, whether it's the US whether it's Japan. We are looking at a uncertain macro environment. We are looking at a lot of concerns about deficits all over the world. That's what's going on in Japan, it's what's going on here. And the market is coming to conclusion that it is unlikely that long term rates are going to be as low as they are now. And so it's keeping rates higher. Does that affect equities? I mean, on the long enough scale? Yes, on a long enough scale. It's got to because we are talking about all of these macro issues and all of these factors that do go into equity prices. But in the near term, I don't know if it necessarily, I can't trade equities based on this because I think that again, this is just one small part of the puzzle. And yeah, we should pay attention. Yeah, we should be aware of what it's telling us. But I don't think it signals, it's not a Chicken Little signal.
- [18:17]
A
Going back to those Japanese government bonds, the 40 year yields breached 4% for the first time in over three decades. And this is broadly because the bank of Japan is tapering its bond purchases. There's concerns over a massive new stimulus package worth about 21.3 trillion yen. It's worth noting Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. treasuries both in the U.S. and Japan. And so there's been some concerns about unbridled debt issuance that could cause investors to demand higher yields to hold government debt. We're also in a time where trade disputes are raising concerns about inflationary pressures. We're seeing European investors increasingly viewing their own bonds as an alternative to U.S. treasuries. Foreign holdings of U.S. treasuries reached an all time high as of the end of 2025. Although we've started to sort of see a bit of a shift in sentiment recently, I think it remains to be seen whether that's a long term curve or not. Equities, particularly in the tech sector, they've been under pressure lately. There's of course the risk free rate on bonds is becoming more attractive. There's been fears intensifying about valuations. I think foreign investors as well have continued to heavily invest in US equities. There's been a lot of interest in AI related growth, high corporate earnings. So I think as always as investors, and I say this as someone that is not a bond investor, I'm a purely an equity investor, need to keep focusing on companies with really strong balance sheets, stable cash flows, robust business models. Those are the companies that can offer resilience during periods of economic uncertainty. And I think that we are in a period of economic uncertainty and I don't think that's going to stop anytime soon. Higher bond yields can translate to higher borrowing costs across the economy. Businesses and households can face more expensive financing. Those are all very real factors there. But for us as investors, avoiding impulsive decisions based purely on short term market movements is really key for maintaining those long term financial goals that we strive for.
- [20:10]
B
Yeah, the bond market will be interesting to watch over the next few months in year or two because it does seem like that risk balance is shifting. So like you have both said, we are stock investors. Not necessarily something we keep an eye on on a day to day basis, but something to be aware of. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and the Motley fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows the Motley Fool's editorial standard and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes for Lou Whiteman, Rachel Warren and Dan Boyd. Behind the glass, I'm Travis Hoyam. Thanks for listening to Motley Fool Money. We'll see you here tomorrow.