B (3:10)

Yeah, and J.P. morgan has always kind of been the exception to the rule here for banks in terms of its relative performance. And I know, Jeff, every single time we have these banks reporting earnings, everybody is itching to know what CEO Jamie Dimon had to say. It seems like he always has a hot take for us. Did he say anything that piqued your interest?

C (3:29)

Well, every time the banks report, I'm interested to hear what Jamie Dimon says because I feel like he's often bearish when things are going well, but it never seems like the doom and gloom that he predicts actually comes to ha to pass. So I know, Jason, you're going to talk about what he had to say a little bit, but nobody ever seems to call this out. That's probably a different podcast. But I'm curious what you think, Jason.

A (3:51)

Yeah, Jeff, I know you wanted to say that, right, that Jamie Dimon's always wrong with his bearish calls. I don't think he's really making predictions as much as just trying to buffer the worst tendencies of the market to swing to those extremes of sentiment either bearish or bullish. And honestly, I was a little surprised that he was a little more middle path with his comments after this quarter pointing out that while there are soft spots, he wasn't as doom and gloomy, pointing out that the consumer and the economy have remained really resilient. It's actually the comments that he made and Wells CEO Charlie Scharf made. They said almost the exact same thing.

C (4:30)

Yeah, I don't follow the bank sector as closely as you do, Jason, but one thing I do find interesting every quarter is the degree to which these banks tend to do well or struggle seems to be tied with the type of banking they specialize in and what the economy is doing right. So right now I'm really interested in seeing what the banks that focus on Things like mergers and acquisitions that have a lot of trading volume if they're into brokers trading and things like that. I think if we see a booming economy continue for a while, those banks, the M and A activity, I think that's all going to continue and these banks should do well. What I worry about as an investor is if we see a downturn and we will at some point, it's just a matter of when. I feel like that could really hit the brakes on some of these businesses that are putting up some strong numbers so far here in 2025.

A (5:16)

Yeah, Jeff, that's right. Banks are extremely cyclical. They go as the economy goes. And honestly that's the case for commercial banks and investment banks. Those different sides of the banks that the universal banks have a little bit of both. And we're in this kind of weird place where everything's working really, really well. Those who have the capacity to spend and borrow continue to do so. That's both individuals and businesses. If we look at JP Morgan's investment bank did exceptionally well. Deal making is picking up. That's not just the strength of the economy, but it's also the product, I think of an administration that's willing to let big M and A happen. Plus the stock market. That's good. You talked about trading volume, but IPOs are a big deal too. Morgan was in on Circle and Figma's IPO that happened recently. It also advised on the Walgreens deal that took that company private. Look at Goldman Sachs just had one of its best quarters ever. Benefited from the exact same trends. Huge trading activity. Think about institutional trading. That's a big thing for these investment banks. We have refinancing, the business friendly administration, all of those things are encouraging more deal making. The big $55 billion acquisition of EA, that was Goldman that was advising. So you put it all together on the consumer side, the banks are doing well. We don't see any big immediate risks in the economy. Nobody took big moves to bolster their balance sheets for imminent credit losses. And if their comments they weren't sanguine, they were very cautiously optimistic about the economy. Maybe management's whistling through the graveyard and not as confident as they proclaim. But I think it's just more evidence that enough of the consumer class is strong enough to prop up the economy. And the biggest banks I think are largely de risk from the middle and lower income families that are struggling right now.

B (6:59)

Well, even if we are sticking our heads in the sand, ignorant may ignorance may be bliss here. Up next, we're digging into what caused Robinhood's shocking outperformance this year. And if there's something beyond a meme craze happening, stick with us.

D (7:11)

Trading at Schwab is now powered by Ameritrade, bringing you an expanding library of education with even more ways to sharpen your trading skills. Access new online courses, insightful webcasts, articles, engaging videos and more, all curated just for traders. Plus guided learning paths with content designed to fit your unique interests. No sifting to find exactly what you need so you can spend your time learning to trade brilliantly. Learn more@schwab.com trading welcome back to Motley Fool Money.

B (7:42)

I want to take us back in time to 2021. Robinhood, which is the app based trading platform aimed at younger adults, has just gone public. The business has a short period of relative success before concerns over things like options trading and privacy led to shares selling off. And for a couple of years the platform didn't really do much. But at the turn of 2024, it seems like this perfect storm has led to a massive jump in operating profits. Right? Crypto and options trading volumes came, interest rates led to strong high margin revenue and management went into cost cutting mode, bringing operating expenses down by nearly 50%. Shares have since roared, but in 2025 it seems like shares have continued to roar. After rising over 200% in 2024, shares are up another 250% in 2025 alone. Jeff When I look at this performance versus the fundamentals, there's some part of me that can make sense of it. But on the other hand, it's still priced incredibly loftily at nearly 30 times board sales. So is there something here beyond just a meme stock craze?

C (8:42)

So to me, this is a story about how speculative and gambling vibes are everywhere in the markets right now. Right? Let's remember how Robinhood makes its money. You talked about this a little bit. Most of the revenue 54% in this last quarter comes from transaction revenue or payment for order flow. So put another way, every time someone trades, they make a little bit of money. So the market booms, people are excited, there's exuberance, a lot of trading happens and you're going to see them have great quarters over and over again until that slows down. So just as an example, in the last reported quarter their revenue from options trading grew 46%, from equities that grew 65% and cryptocurrency grew 98%. So people are clearly transacting and Robinhood is Benefiting now, I guess the question is, can it continue? Right. And that's where the valuation factor comes in. I think it can as long as the vibes that we see in the market right now continue. What can concerns me though is their user growth. Right? So in the last quarter, their funded customers only grew by 10% while total platform assets grew 99%. So the results are clearly being fueled by more people trading more often rather than really strong user growth. And it's worth Remembering that in 2021, when we had all of the. The last time the market was similar to how it is now. They, they posted $1.4 billion in total transaction revenue for that year. That metric dropped to 814 million the next year, so 745 million the year after that before returning back to these lofty highs we've seen more recently. So I think for this business as, as it's currently constituted, and I know they are making some changes to, you know, change this for the future. I think they're going to be very much tied to the market cycle and that's worth remembering for investors.

A (10:21)

Yeah, Jeff, I think, I think that's right in terms of what's happening now. But again, I think thinking about the difference between the cyclical realities of these sorts of businesses and the secular trends is really important. Yes, it's a blistering market for stocks, and crypto is driving the bulk of the results. But look at BlackRock, which is an absolute giant here, just reported a 17% increase in assets to 13.5 trillion. Most of that was the result of increases in stock market value. So I think that 10% accounts growth, that's nothing to sniff at. This is an incredibly saturated market. That means that a lot of those customers that Robinhood is gaining, it's taking them from someone. This is an expansion of the market and it's less just a gamified app and a taxable brokerage account than it was when Robinhood first popped up. And as it adds more offerings, I think it's going to become stickier. The retention rates at brokerages are already in the mid to high 90s for the industry, the goal for Robinhood is to keep young users for decades. That's what they want to do. And just as again with banks, there's the cyclical reality, but the secular tailwinds are favorable. Those same young users that are choosing Robinhood now, they're going to receive a massive portion of the hundred trillion dollars plus wealth transfer from boomers to their kids and grandkids over the next couple of decades, and a lot of that's going to be leaving legacy platforms, and if Robinhood plays its cards right, it's going to go into Robinhood accounts.

B (11:44)

It certainly performed better than I expected. And I will say, though, as much as I had written off this company incorrectly over the course of the past couple of years, I think buying today is buying at peak hype, so to speak. And it could be an interesting one to add to a well diversified portfol if and when trading volumes start to fall and the tide start to shift away from Robinhood in terms of just some of the user growth and trading volumes that depend heavily on external factors. In my mind, that's an interesting time to be adding Robinhood to a diversified portfolio. Coming up next, we're digging into what's causing the decline in alcohol sales, and if that's just a trend or a seismic shift, stick with us.

E (12:20)

Wish you could lock in rates without locking out liquidity? Meet lddr, a lifex treasury bond ladder ETF built to simplify your cash flow plan for the next 10 years. With LDDR, you can lock in today's interest rates for a decade. It's built to deliver predictable monthly cash flow that boosts interest income by including tax free return of principal. That means the potential for higher, more stable cash flow without worrying about rate cuts, reinvestment risk or market swings. LDDR Take the guesswork out of your cash flow plan. Learn more@lifxfunds.com the LIFX ETFs return principal over the life of an ETF and therefore expected to have little or no assets remaining to distribute at the time of liqu. Individual bonds carry an obligation to fully return the principal to shareholders of maturity. However, ETFs have no such obligation. The net asset value of the ETFs will decline over time as income payments are made to shareholders. The tax discussion herein is general in nature. Investors should consult with their tax advisor about the effect that an investment in Lifex ETFs could have on their tax situation. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks and charges and expenses of LDDR carefully before investing. The prospectus contains this and other information about the investment company and can be obtained by visiting www.lifexfunds.com or by calling 1-888-331-5558. The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. Investing in the LIFX ETFs involve risk principal loss is possible. The LIFEX Income ETFs are distributed by Foresight Financial Services LLC welcome back to Motley Fool Money.

B (13:51)

Last week, a stock I own and have historically really liked, reported earnings and I was miffed. Constellation Brands, that ticker is stz, is the owner of beer brands like Pacifico, Modelo and Corona, and they reported earnings and they have historically been a little bit more resilient in terms of alcohol brands, but now they're facing the same slowdown that has plagued companies like Boston Beer. And the truth is people are just drinking less alcohol. And it seems like management, especially for Constellation Brands, refuses to acknowledge this broader trend and is blaming it on the macro environment. And while I'm sure that's partially true, I'm curious if y' all's reality as you look across the alcohol landscape here. Alcohol consumption declining quarter after quarter surveys finding that this has been going on for a while where the percentage of Americans who drink alcohol is at all time lows. So Jason, when you see this type of shift in consumption, does it strike you as something that is temporary due to external factors, or is this really a permanent seismic shift in the market?

A (14:50)

I don't know if I would say it's permanent, but I think then that we can certainly think that this may be a generational shift. The trend aligns with data that younger adults are less likely to go out in public group settings like bars and have become more socially isolated, spending more time on apps. So honestly, some of the trends that have led to the rise of the Robin Hoods of the world are things that are on the other side may be affecting this. And we could talk about the negative implications of that, right? In terms of less social activity, less engagement, less interaction with real people in the real world. I mean, there are some upsides to less alcoholic consumption. At the same time, there's also anecdotal evidence that the social lubricant aspect of social drinking has some net positive aspects for society. But it's certainly looking like, as to your point, a lot more than just a macro thing here. After all, history does tell us that there's kind of an inverse correlation between weak economic factors and alcohol consumption. I. E. People tend to drink more when times are tough, not less. So I also don't buy the GLP1s are undermining the snack food and booze industry and anything like permanent ways. People quit GLP1s at very high rates because they make them feel miserable and then they go back to the lifestyle and habits that they had before. So until we see GLP formulations that don't make a large cohort of patients feel like crap. I just. I don't believe those drugs are going to permanently alter people's consumption patterns. Now, carrying it a step further, we are also seeing trends of lower underage alcohol consumption as well. Again, not a bad thing, but it's a thing that's happening. Jeff, maybe you have a little bit better pulse of the Youngs than me. What fun intoxicants should we invest for the next generation?

C (16:36)

That's a great question. The ones that make me money as an investor, I guess, would be the way I'd go. Look, I know this is an unsatisfying answer, but I think the truth of the future of the alcohol industry probably lies somewhere in between what we've been talking about, and I think it's the downturn in drinking is probably a combination of factors. Some of it likely is related to the macro environment. I don't think that's an entirely untrue. The data you just pointed out, Jason, about younger adults socializing. Yes. Less drinking, less in public while they're socializing. I think there's truth to that. I think the GLP1s are playing a small role. Right. I think it's going to be all of those things. Another factor, I don't know. When I was younger, the thing that limited my drinking when I was not making a lot of money was how much I wanted to spend of my discretionary income on alcohol. And if, you know, all the data shows now that younger people are having an even harder time, you know, getting things going with high college debt, things like that. So it could just be an economic factor in terms of where this generation is. I think this is a pendulum swing, not a death spiral for the alcohol industry. Now, the pendulum may not swing all the way back to where it was. I do think it's possible we see lower amounts of drinking in the future, but my guess is that it levels out somewhere in between what we're seeing now and what we saw maybe five or 10 years ago. I think what would be interesting to watch is how these alcohol companies handle cannabis when and if it becomes federally legal. You know, you've seen Constellation Brands already took a stake in canopy growth. I think we're going to see more consolidation in this space between the alcohol companies and the cannabis companies, similar to how tobacco companies have diversified away from cigarettes, but have still, you know, remained in tobacco products. I think that's going to be the interesting thing to watch with this industry as we move forward.

B (18:16)

And some of those beer brands have been more proactive. To your point about Constellation brands versus companies like Boston Beer who have continued to see. I think Jim Koch, the interim CEO, said that he saw something to the effect of THC taking mid single digit share of beer in certain states where it's been legalized. So they might not be investing, but they're certainly aware. As we wrap up here, I'm going to put you both on the spot in maybe 10 seconds or less if you have to choose between investing in a broad based basket of companies. Let's say alcohol versus cannabis, throw pharmaceuticals in there with the GLP ones. Which one do you think is going to outperform and why? I'll quickly start. I'll say I think it's the cannabis industry. I think there's a reason why consumers are continuing to shift there. That's where a lot of the growth is. It's clearly still getting its feet sorted out from underneath of itself. But I think in five years they probably relatively outperform. Jeff, what about you?

C (19:06)

I think five years is too quick for the cannabis industry to outperform. I might take that bet. On the longer term, I think alcohol companies are going to figure this out. They're going to learn how to pivot it to the popular drinks and they're going to learn to diversify their portfolios. I'm taking the alcohol companies.

A (19:20)

Yeah, Cannabis I think has too many yellow flags and the consumer goods ification of that industry with packaged branded products, they get erodes of potential for anybody to do what the tobacco industry does, which is take a really cheap product, find customer base that's addicted to it and get good margins. Can I just actually skip both and just take Altria for the over here.

B (19:39)

I love that idea. You know what, I can't wait. Listeners, hold us accountable. Bring us back in 20, 20, 2030 and we'll see if it was the alcohol, tobacco or cannabis industry that won out. Jason and Jeff, thank you both so much for joining.

A (19:50)

Thanks, Emily.

B (19:52)

As always. People on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and the Motley fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance contents follows Motley fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes for Jason Hall, Jeff Santoro and the entire Motley fool team. I'm Emily Flippin. We'll see you tomorrow.