
Fed independence brings stability, and markets love stability.
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Foreign.
Dylan Lewis
Chair Powell, Motley Fool Money starts now. I'm Dylan Lewis and I'm joined over the airwaves by Motley fool analyst Asit Sharma Assit.
Asit Sharma
Thanks for joining me, Dylan. Happy Monday.
Dylan Lewis
Happy Monday for some. For some, it is a bit of a down Monday. Rough start for the market this week. We See S&P 500 Nasdaq investors processing some commentary on the macro picture from the Trump administration with them setting their sights on Fed Chair Powell. Seems like the administration would like to see someone else sitting in the Fed chair seat. Asit, what is the tension here?
Asit Sharma
So, Dylan, the tension is that President Trump really wants lower interest rates. He's been an advocate for this, not just in this administration, but the past administration. President Trump feels that low interest rates spur economic activity and they're good for the stock market. Generally. Investors like lower interest rates in many scenarios. So he's a very vocal advocate for this. But the time that we're in just now is one that Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve and many Fed governors believe is one where we have to be very careful about lowering interest rates. As you know, we've had a high interest rate, high inflation environment in the US and so one of the things you want to be careful of is backing off of interest rates too soon. If you lower interest rates too soon in a highly inflationary environment, well, inflation can increase and that's not good for the markets. It's not good for the Fed's mandate, which is to keep inflation around 2% so keep a steady scenario for economic growth and also make sure that the labor market is healthy. So here we have President Trump pushing what's actually like a heterodox type of policy for this environment. It doesn't make a lot of sense to many economic observers. And as with many things we see with President Trump, he's not afraid to use his very loud megaphone to make a point. And he's been putting a lot of pressure very publicly on Jerome Powell saying that he needs to go. So here we are. The markets opened up pretty in the red today because of this tension as President Trump recently made some comments on social media about Jerome Powell having to go.
Dylan Lewis
Yeah, I think the Nasdaq's down about 3% today on the news that they may be looking for ways to end his term before May 2026. S&P down around 2% as the market processes that a reminder, Fed Chair Powell was nominated by Trump during his first term. You brought up that this has been kind of a long standing thing And I look at the Fed and I think then before we got into the situation with tariffs, there was a bit of a wait and see, slow and steady approach to macro policy because there had been that stubborn bit of inflation that would not get down to that target of around 2% that the Fed likes to focus on. Then we saw tariffs come out and the stance of the Fed was we need to wait and see and digest this a bit more before we are willing to make any really big action down, which is what the administration wanted to see. So I imagine that this is not something that is going to change. I don't think the Fed's outlook on any of this is going to change anytime soon. And that's kind of why we're here.
Asit Sharma
Yes, I think the Fed is really, under Jerome Powell, an organization that takes its time to make decisions. They look at trailing data very closely. It's not an economic organization that likes to look at forward indicators on the balance. And this in some ways serves them very well for the purposes of the two mandates that I just mentioned. But also it opens up the Fed to criticism in lots of different environments. You guys are moving too slow. We heard this. You were too slow to increase interest rates when inflation and the economic activity was boiling upwards. And you've been too slow to lower interest rates and spur that economic activity. And there are some economists who make an argument that maybe a little bit of a low rate environment would be healthy. But the tariffs, as you mentioned, Dylan, is a big sticking point here that creates its whole level of uncertainty and indicates a tariff regime indicates higher prices, not lower prices in the near term. If you're sitting in Jerome Powell's chair, you're probably going to be thinking too, I'm not going to drop these rates yet. Let's wait and see. And this just increases the tension between an organization that is trying to do its job by its state objectives and sort of a political pressure to do the exact opposite.
Dylan Lewis
You mentioned the Fed being the recipient of a lot of criticism. I think it comes with the territory. We have adopted an approach of almost rooting for a sports team when it comes to Fed policy. It has become a much larger event than it used to be in the lower rate environment post gfc. But here we are now a lot more eyes on the Fed. And you know, while it is a recipient of criticism, it is also the beneficiary of independence. That is what they are set out to do. It is meant to exist without influence from the private sector, without influence from Congress or the sitting President. And that is part of the system that we have here in place asit, where we have this check and balance, the stabilizing elements of things. So much of what I think we are noticing here in the red today with the market is that there is a concern about what happens if something jeopardizes that independence.
Asit Sharma
I agree, Dylan. What we're looking at here is spooking not just of domestic investors, but international investors as well. So we often talk about themes that make sense, like, okay, the dollar is the world's reserve currency, so we don't want to jeopardize that. Those are easy enough to understand. But I think what many of us miss often is that the rest of the world sees the US as an investable asset so the rest of the world can buy US Stocks. We also see the rest of the world investing in government IOUs, promissory notes. So those are the bonds that the US Treasury Department sells to finance our debt and to provide us with liquid money to run our operations as a sort of business, if you will. And so when the world elevates the US and says there's sort of this really good risk reward equation when you invest in U.S. treasury bonds or if you buy U.S. stocks, which is they're safe, they're liquid, and they're sort of isolated via this structural framework from the chaos that often consumes the rest of the world. That's a premium that we get. So when we jeopardize that, what we're sort of signaling to investors around the world is that we're not so stable. And there are many ways we can do that. We can not agree as two parties in Congress to extend the borrowing that we do. And every time we have to fund the government, this argument comes up. Or we could say we're going to remove the structural guardrails that make this place seem so stable. So sort of talking down the head of the Fed and demanding that he be replaced is sending a signal to the rest of the world that we're really not as concerned about being perceived as stable. We have this more important objective, which is to put someone in place who will act more by what the executive branch wants versus what the perceived mandate is. And so what I'm dancing around here till, without trying to get too political, is the rest of the world is. Is saying, if you just kick Jerome Powell out of that seat, we're not so sure we want to buy your bonds or invest in your stock markets. And that's why the selling is going on today. People are Removing capital flows from the US Markets. And that's why the amount of interest that the US Government may have to offer for different institutions to buy its bonds in the future may keep rising as we've seen in recent weeks.
Dylan Lewis
So the market is selling right now very much on the rumor of this. If this becomes a real story, it feels to me like very similar to the tariffs where this becomes another rail of volatility that investors are going to have to be ready for and kind of brace themselves to weather.
Asit Sharma
Yeah, totally. I would say, as I've been saying, I've incorporated tariffs as a feature of my investing landscape. And this would be another feature. If this becomes an increasingly politicized a seat in the US Government, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, then we have to understand that's going to make our future as investors prone to more volatility. And we're just going to have to plan around that or maybe choose to invest elsewhere. There's nothing that says you have to invest in the US Stock market.
Dylan Lewis
What is a pretty rough day for the US Stock market? There are some companies that are doing okay. Netflix getting close to new all time highs after releasing earnings last week and market continuing to digest them. Continuing to see a lot of the upside there. Revenue is up about 12% for the business. Net income up about 24% when they reported last week. We also had the first quarter where the company got rid of their subscriber counts as part of their reporting. Kind of giving us a feel for this new look company. What jumped out to you in the results?
Asit Sharma
Well, I liked that the operating margin keeps climbing for this company. If you look at the nice little table Netflix presents every quarter with its shareholder letter, you can see that operating margin is just sequentially sort of moving up. There's a little bit of a bounce back last quarter, but here up to almost 32%. So in other words, for every revenue dollar that Netflix is bringing in, it's taking home 32 cents on that dollar before a few adjustments for debt and taxes, et cetera. But that's a very high operating income margin and it shows that Netflix is hitting its sweet spot, Dylan, as a content company, one that deals in intangible assets, it's always a good business to be in. So you have a business which is now at scale. It's not a young upstart anymore, but it is still growing pretty convincingly. So I really like that and I like the free cash flow that the company is generating. Again, $2.8 billion of net cash provided by operating activity. So about $2.7 billion in free cash flow. That's not bad off of a revenue number of about $10.5 billion. So the company is extremely efficient on generating cash as well as it is on generating operating income income. So I'm liking those numbers. And there's a little theme to what I'm saying here, Dylan. I haven't talked about any of the other stuff that we've been talking about over the past several years for Netflix. I'm focusing on the numbers, which is what management sort of wants investors to do. There's something else they don't want us to focus on. And you were going to talk about that. You're going to ask me about that?
Dylan Lewis
Yeah, I mean, we for a long time have focused on subscriber counts in addition to focusing on dollars. This is the first quarter where we are not getting those subscriber counts. And I do understand that we are moving into an era of this being a subscriber based business and an advertising based business. But you can't convince me that that is a shareholder friendly move. For my money, I'm not a shareholder, but for my money, I would love to see as much information as possible and it is still a driving force behind the dollars that that company reports. I feel that way asit in particular because we're not getting the advertising breakout yet. They haven't told us what the advertising numbers are yet.
Asit Sharma
Yeah, it's becoming opaque. Well, I'm going to sort of agree with you, Dylan, but I'll try to give you a counter for it. I mean, yeah, I would love to have the subscriber numbers as well, but maybe from management's perspective, they're looking at it this way. Look, all you investors, we trained you on these subscriber numbers and it was sort of addictive when we were a small company and growing because those numbers were always going up, they weren't always linear, but for the most part that growth was and now they're just really bumpy. We're a mature company now, but you guys are still so focused on the subscriber numbers. Look at all this free cash flow we're giving you. Look at all this income, this net income. Look at all the investments we're making around the world. Why we're spending a billion bucks in Mexico for new content. We have an amazing operation in the uk. We've gone from a company that exports US content to one that makes it on the ground in places like South Korea, where we know the very best shows are created. So Management wants us to focus on this business as something that's really dynamic and that can wring a lot more profit and cash flow out of its machine. And they're pointing us to engagement. Right. They're talking about things like 52 weeks worth of live WWE entertainment that folks can now access on Netflix. So they're trying to really shape how we view the company. But underneath this is an implicit message that, yeah, I mean, don't expect us to grow our subscriber count like we did in the past. We're going to focus on monetizing that with really great content.
Dylan Lewis
So basically, if the market won't shift the narrative, management will shift the narrative by forcing it with the disclosures.
Asit Sharma
Yeah, yeah. And maybe this thing about we'll only share the subscriber count and we hit big milestones is okay if they keep putting out numbers like they've been putting out. And Netflix stock reacted pretty well to the latest results. And even today I think this is a defensive play because everything else is in the red today. I note the stock is up a little bit this morning.
Dylan Lewis
Yeah, I saw a headline calling Netflix recession proof today. We've been keeping an eye on the way that different management teams early on in this earnings season have been trying to manage the expectations game. For Netflix's part, they reiterated their full year guidance. They said that there were no interruptions that they were seeing. They felt like entertainment is a very sticky place for people to be spending, that they're at a nice price point. What do you think of that recession proof label asset?
Asit Sharma
I mean, yes and no. They're recession friendly because we love our subscription businesses. But as one analyst asked on the call, the earnings conference call, if the economy gets worse and all this tariff stuff keeps going on, won't people drop down from those premium subscriptions down to the advertising tier, which is pretty cheap and attainable? What will that actually mean for the business? And Greg Peters didn't really have a great answer for that. He did say, well, we have such an attractive price point at that ad supported tier. But it begs the question, if things get really bad, maybe some folks won't even bother with an ad supported tier. Maybe they'll just cut different subscriptions. Netflix isn't the only one that I can think of, of course, but I do think that they have some insulation against that. They're not in a business that is going to be directly affected by tariffs from a tax perspective. That's what they're communicating by not changing the guidance. And they did say in the conference call that they're always having to figure out different tax structures because they have all this local production of content around the world and they sell everywhere. So they're already constructed in a fashion and manner that they can be a little bit price reactive. So, you know, I would say there, there is some truth to that. But I wouldn't be surprised if things really head south with the economy this year for Netflix to come out, you know, in the summer, fall and say, whoops, I mean, we didn't know things were going to be this bad. We have to pull that forecast back a little bit.
Dylan Lewis
They only know what they know.
Rick Minares
Right?
Asit Sharma
Of course.
Dylan Lewis
Austin Sharma, you know plenty. Thanks for joining me today.
Asit Sharma
Thanks a lot, Dylan.
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Asit Sharma
Sport.
Dylan Lewis
Coming up on the show, what do tariffs mean for E Commerce? Up next, Ananchakvalu hosts full contributors Dan Kaplinger and Rick Minares for a scoreboard episode on Shopify.
Dan Kaplinger
Talk about the business first, including factors like industry and competition. A ten is invincible. A one is hopeless. Dan's at a seven. Rick, you're at an eight.
Harley Finkelstein
Yeah. So Shopify, obviously an E commerce platform for the massive is a Canadian company but we're global with 175 country reach. It started as Toby, Lucky and a friend wanting to sell Snowboards online. About 20 years ago, when he didn't see an e commerce platform that he liked, he created his own and other budding online entrepreneurs asked him if they could use it and voila. The Shopify business model was born in 2006. So more than 1 trillion in merchandise has been sold on Shopify's platform since then. More importantly, more than half of that gross merchandise value has actually happened in the last two years. Shopify started as a place for sole proprietors or small companies wanting an online presence. But now it's evolved through Shopify plus for large and other initiatives to cover companies of all sizes. 875 million unique shoppers. Unique online shoppers purchased something from Shopify from a Shopify Merchant in 2024. It's seamless, intuitive for sellers. But naturally there's Amazon, ebay and others e commerce rivals that can make that small learning curve even smaller. Shopify's advantage here, I see it, is that the users own their own site. They're not competing against anyone else for attention, but they also have to generate the traffic to their to their sites. Shopify also has made a move offline, providing point of sale solutions for physical retailers and event vendors, making it a direct competitor Block square platform. The Shopify model isn't perfect. Two years ago they did, they did unload their logistics business. But however, winners keep winning. And Shopify is Canada's second largest company by market cap. Only the Royal bank of Canada is larger. But it's easy to see why growth investors may prefer to bank on Shopify.
Rick Minares
Yeah, Rick pretty much covered everything. I think Shopify has done a really good job of democratizing E commerce a little bit, providing someplace where smaller companies, smaller retail businesses can go without necessarily getting totally overwhelmed by the platform. Shopify has done a good job of expanding the platform and adding services. And it's just, you know, as you say, some growing pains along the way, but overall done a really good job for management.
Dan Kaplinger
A 10 is Warren Buffett. A 1 is Homer Simpson. Dan's at a 7, and once again, Rick's at an 8.
Harley Finkelstein
Lucky is still at the helm here. Obviously. He's still quotable. He's still winning. Shopify is a 54 bagger since going public 10 years ago. President Harley Finkelstein has been there for 15 years. So he has also been there for the entirety of Shopify's run as a successful public trade life. The only reason I'm not higher than an 8, it's surprising to me that half of the employees pulled by Glassdoor approve or in other ways don't approve. Either way, 50, 50% of luck as and actually less than that, 48% of the employees would recommend working at Shopify to a friend. So I do not like that.
Rick Minares
Yeah, I gave it a 7 in part kind of because I get that same kind of feel to it. I almost wonder if this is a situation where you have a co founder, CEO who might be happier moving into less of an executive management role. You know, we've seen a bunch of former CEO co founders switch over to like become chief technology officer or do something else that more aligns with whatever it is that they're passionate about. I kind of wonder if that might be the move for Shopify here. But you can't dispute the fact that Lutke put his puts his money where his mouth is, still has a huge stake in the company, financial incentives, totally aligned and we're always glad to see that.
Dan Kaplinger
For financials, a 10 is a fortress, a 1 is. Yikes. Dan's at a 7, Rick's at a 9.
Harley Finkelstein
Yes. So a lot of growth stocks slow down as they get larger, but Shopify is actually accelerating right now. Revenue went from rising 24% in 2023 to 26% last year. It's doing even better if we zoom in. Revenue rose a better than expected 31% in its latest quarter, its strongest quarterly growth showing in more than three years. Shopify has been generating positive free cash flow for nine consecutive quarters, and its latest quarter generated $0.22 in free cash flow on every dollar of revenue. Shopify also has a relatively clean balance sheet with a strong net cash position. And it also doesn't hurt to zoom out. Revenue at Shopify has more than tripled in the last four years and soared fivefold in the last five years. You can't spell SH without hop.
Rick Minares
I gave it a lower number. I gave it a 7. I can't dispute the numbers that you've seen. I think that part of where I'm a little bit nervous as we tape this in early mid March, a whole bunch of geopolitical tension that is affecting trade of goods and the extent to which a lot of Shopify transactions happen within national borders. And so you're not going to have a tariff issue, you're not going to have any sort of trade war issue, but a decent amount does happen internationally. And so the question for me is between the direct impact of tariffs on E commerce and the indirect impact potentially if there is an economic slowdown because of it. I have to be a little bit wondering whether future growth might slow as a result of that. Especially you've got a Canadian company and you got a whole bunch of US participants that somehow in 2025 has turned into something that we're having to pay attention to.
Dan Kaplinger
Rick, let's talk valuation. How well Will Shopify stock do over the next five years? How safe is it? Ten is a sure thing. One is a lottery ticket.
Harley Finkelstein
Yeah. So I went with a 5 to 10% 5 year return on the stock and a safety score of 7. So Shopify, the stock has nearly tripled over the past five years. So suggesting it'll only grow at a 5 to 10% annualized clip over the next five years with a long Runway of double digit revenue growth in that time may seem conservative. I just think the valuation here seems a little stretched at this point. Shopify is trading for 13 times trailing revenue and more than 60 times trailing earnings. To me it's a bit rich and I don't know if it's 100% justified but I do see that obviously doing well overall. Making that back as growth keeps outpacing the stock in the next couple years.
Rick Minares
Dan, I agree with the evaluation comment. I think I'm a little more pessimistic just on the general economics of retail and E commerce going forward. I gave it 0 to 5% with safety score of 6. I think we're going to be in the in the mid single digits. I don't see a 0% return but we have seen a big rebound recently. I think that there is a real risk that we have a consumer led recession. It might put pressure on retailers. It might last longer than some of the many recessions that we've seen in the past. Trade tensions, trends towards de globalization. I'm just concerned that that's going to hurt the company more than a of people are giving credit to at this point.
Dan Kaplinger
Time for everyone's favorite topic. Rick, is there a company in Shopify space you like more?
Harley Finkelstein
I like Shopify obviously but I went with Block now a direct competitor with Square now that Shopify is a bigger force in point of sale and offline sales. Block is growing a lot slower than Shopify and revenue is decelerating. Was just less than 5% revenue growth in its latest quarter but it's trading for 12 times earnings analysis and just one and a half times sales analysis. Growth accelerating this year and again 2026. So I went with Block sort of as a value based play on, on digital finance.
Rick Minares
I give you two companies I think if you like E commerce and you like the idea of a an area with what could be potentially stronger economic growth. Mercado Libre Tickler M E L I gives you that Latin American exposure. I think that's a more interesting market than you know, the North American market at this point. They also too have done Mercado Libre has done a good job of giving associated services on top of E commerce. And so you get payments, you get shipping, you get a whole bunch of stuff that I think helps, helps their customers, both their customers and their merchants do things better. On the other hand, Amazon Ticker amz, an obvious choice in E commerce, and you get Amazon Web Services for no extra charge. And so that's something that I think may appeal to a bunch of people as well.
Motley Fool Money: The Market and Fed Chair Powell
Release Date: April 21, 2025
Hosts: Dylan Lewis, Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long
Guest Analyst: Asit Sharma
Introduction
In this episode of Motley Fool Money, host Dylan Lewis engages in a comprehensive discussion with Motley Fool analyst Asit Sharma about the current tensions surrounding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the broader implications for the stock market. The conversation delves into the interplay between political pressures, Fed policies, and market reactions, before transitioning to an analysis of Netflix's latest earnings report.
1. Political Tensions and Fed Chair Jerome Powell
The episode opens with Dylan Lewis addressing the unease in the markets stemming from President Trump's public criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Dylan notes the market's negative response: "Nasdaq is down about 3% today... S&P [is] down around 2%" following Trump's comments suggesting Powell should leave his position (00:52).
Asit Sharma explains the root of the tension:
"President Trump really wants lower interest rates... He feels that low interest rates spur economic activity and they're good for the stock market" (00:52). Sharma highlights that Powell and the Federal Reserve are cautious about lowering rates due to the current high inflation environment, emphasizing the Fed's mandate to maintain inflation around 2%.
Asit elaborates on Trump's unconventional stance:
"He's been putting a lot of pressure very publicly on Jerome Powell saying that he needs to go" (01:00). This public pressure contrasts with the Fed's traditionally measured approach to policy decisions, creating significant market anxiety.
2. Market Reactions and Fed's Independence
Dylan observes the broader implications of Trump's interference with the Fed:
"It's part of the system that we have here in place where we have this check and balance, the stabilizing elements of things... there's a concern about what happens if something jeopardizes that independence" (05:45). The hosts discuss how the Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining investor confidence both domestically and internationally.
Asit Sharma underscores the global perspective:
"The rest of the world sees the US as an investable asset... When you jeopardize that, what we're sort of signaling to investors around the world is that we're not so stable" (05:45). He points out that perceived instability can lead to reduced foreign investment in U.S. stocks and government bonds, potentially increasing the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government.
Dylan concludes that such political meddling is creating another layer of volatility for investors to navigate:
"If this becomes a real story, it feels to me like very similar to the tariffs where this becomes another rail of volatility" (08:22).
3. Implications for Investors and Market Stability
The discussion shifts to how investors might need to adapt to this new political dynamic. Asit Sharma suggests incorporating these political risks into investment strategies:
"If this becomes an increasingly politicized seat in the US Government... we have to plan around that or maybe choose to invest elsewhere" (08:36). This implies a potential shift in capital flows away from U.S. markets if political instability persists.
Dylan highlights the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence:
"The Fed is also the beneficiary of independence. That is what they are set out to do... it is meant to exist without influence from the private sector, without influence from Congress or the sitting President" (05:45). This independence is critical for the Fed to execute its monetary policy effectively without succumbing to political pressures.
4. Transition to Corporate Earnings: Netflix's Performance
Shifting focus, the conversation moves to Netflix's latest earnings report. Dylan notes that despite the market downturn, Netflix's stock showed resilience:
"Netflix is getting close to new all-time highs after releasing earnings last week... Revenue is up about 12% for the business. Net income up about 24%" (09:06).
Asit Sharma praises Netflix's operational efficiency:
"The operating margin keeps climbing for this company... for every revenue dollar that Netflix is bringing in, it's taking home 32 cents before a few adjustments" (09:37). He highlights the company's strong free cash flow and strategic investments in global content production, which positions Netflix favorably despite broader market volatility.
The hosts discuss Netflix's strategic shift away from subscriber counts in their reporting, focusing instead on financial metrics:
"This is the first quarter where we are not getting those subscriber counts... it is still a driving force behind the dollars that that company reports" (11:10). Asit acknowledges the trade-off between transparency in subscriber metrics and emphasizing profitability and cash flow.
Dylan references a headline calling Netflix "recession-proof," prompting further analysis:
"They're recession friendly because we love our subscription businesses... but there are questions about how premium subscriptions will hold up in a worsening economy" (14:22). Asit remains cautiously optimistic but warns of potential challenges if economic conditions deteriorate.
Conclusion
The episode provides a thorough examination of the current political pressures on the Federal Reserve and their implications for market stability and investor confidence. The discussion underscores the importance of the Fed's independence in maintaining economic stability and investor trust. Transitioning to corporate performance, the analysis of Netflix's earnings demonstrates resilience and strategic growth amidst market uncertainties. Overall, the episode offers valuable insights for investors navigating the complex interplay between politics, monetary policy, and corporate performance.
Notable Quotes:
Asit Sharma (00:52): "President Trump really wants lower interest rates... He feels that low interest rates spur economic activity and they're good for the stock market."
Dylan Lewis (05:45): "It is part of the system that we have here in place where we have this check and balance, the stabilizing elements of things... there's a concern about what happens if something jeopardizes that independence."
Asit Sharma (05:45): "When you jeopardize that, what we're sort of signaling to investors around the world is that we're not so stable."
Asit Sharma (08:36): "If this becomes an increasingly politicized seat in the US Government... we have to plan around that or maybe choose to invest elsewhere."
Dylan Lewis (09:06): "Netflix is getting close to new all-time highs after releasing earnings last week... Revenue is up about 12% for the business. Net income up about 24%."
Asit Sharma (09:37): "The operating margin keeps climbing for this company... for every revenue dollar that Netflix is bringing in, it's taking home 32 cents before a few adjustments."
This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the episode, providing a clear and detailed overview for those who haven't listened to the podcast.