Transcript
A (0:05)
It's the day after Christmas, so it's time to look back on 2025. Motley Fool Money starts now. Everybody needs money. That's why they call it.
B (0:37)
From Fool Global headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.
A (0:40)
Welcome to M. Fool Money. I am Travis Hoyam, joined today by Emily Flippen and Lou Whiteman. Guys, when we look back on 2025, we were getting ready for this show. I almost forgot how much tariffs were a topic just a few months ago. This happened in April. There were sweeping tariffs put on all kinds of imports coming into the US So we have to start there when we're looking back on 2025 because that was thought to be a devastating hit to the US economy. And yet the S&P 500 is up about 40% since then. Lou, what did we learn about tariffs? Or are we still in sort of this unknown territory?
B (1:18)
Okay, so full disclosure, I was one of the people saying the sky is falling. So I'm going to be very defensive in my answer here. Okay, I'm very biased. That said, a couple of things I want to point out. First of we live in a world where we're used to hot takes instant reactions and stuff. Tariffs like Fed moves and so many other things in the economy, they take time to work through the system. I think if you looked at since April. No, there wasn't that like instant the world is terrible now. But we've talked about on here, Travis, the boiling frog economy. And it's just sort of, it's slowly, slowly getting worse. I'm sticking with that. Under the surface, there's signs of distress even if the stock market's up. Secondly, on the stock market, Main street is not Wall Street. Yes, the market is up. The market is always ahead of the economy. Ups and downs. Wall street went through the shock, they went through the denial and then they kind of normalized tariffs pretty quickly. It's, I think, dangerous to say that, yeah, stocks are up 40%. Therefore there's no pain on Main street because I do think they're separate things and they are going to play out differently. They did play out differently in 2025 and it will continue to do so.
A (2:28)
Emily, how do you think about this? Because this was like the market reaction was almost like the pandemic. I mean, 2020 things crashed in a few days. That's what happened after the tariffs. But then it doesn't seem like Lou's probably right. There is some maybe boiling frog things going on. But you don't go to the store and see prices up 40, 50% the way that we maybe thought they were going to be in April. So how do we think about this as investors?
C (2:55)
Yeah, I love this question because to Lou's earlier point, what's interesting is that by the end of April, the market had already rebounded and regained all of the losses after the announcement of the tariff. So this was not in time, obviously, to actually see any impact from the tariff. The market was not reacting to whether or not we were going to see 40 or 50% price increases. It was reacting to something else entirely. So, you know, to the Trump administration's credit, the economy clearly did not collapse due to tariffs. And there were pundits, myself included, that were predicting the worst. I always to be a bit of a pessimist. I like to be pleasantly surprised. But let's not forget that in April that was the narrative. I mean, remember all the big bank CEOs saying a global recession was likely. But it's also true that the economy hasn't exactly boomed, even though the stock market has. And that is to lose points. An important distinction. Right. Just because the stock market's going up doesn't mean the average life for Americans are getting better. And the data that we do have to kind of evaluate that average life of the American is pretty severely delayed. And lots of it's getting questioned regarding accuracy, too. But it's still fair to look at what we do have and see what it's telling us. Right. Job additions this year have been lower than in the past, and Fed Chair Powell now believes those numbers are overstated to the point where we actually have been potentially losing upwards of 20,000 jobs a month since April. And it's really impossible to say how much of that was due to tariffs versus AI versus business decisions. But they're all key impacts of economic policies. Right. So we're still actually looking to see the direct impact of tariffs. And I think it is genuinely still, it's crazy to say this because we're ending out the year of 2025, but it's too early to say that there hasn't been any economic impact from terrorists. It hasn't been what we expected it to be. But there are so many other variables going on today and a growing disconnect between the markets and the average person that the real impact probably won't even come until 2026.
