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The Year of Concentration, Crypto, China
00:38:55
2024 was another stellar year for investors, but a lot of money is piling into the same places in the U.S. and globally.
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- [00:05]
Dylan Lewis
It's the end of 2024, and I bet you totally forgot about. This week's Motley Fool Money radio show starts now.
- [00:20]
Bill Mann
Everybody needs money.
- [00:23]
James Zahn
That's why they call it money.
- [00:25]
Dylan Lewis
The best things in life are free but you can give them to the birth and be that welcome fool Global.
- [00:33]
James Zahn
Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.
- [00:35]
Dylan Lewis
It's the Motley Fool Money radio show. I'm Dylan Lewis. Joining me over the airwaves, Motley fool senior analysts Matt Argersinger and Bill Mann. Fools, great to have you both here.
- [00:44]
Matt Argersinger
Dylan, how you doing?
- [00:45]
Dylan Lewis
Dylan I'm doing great because we are getting to put a bow on 2024. This is our annual look back. We are going to be checking in on the winners and losers of the past year, maybe reminding listeners of a couple things that they forgot about in the news cycle over the last 12 months. I'm going to kick us off with a rolling market check in as we tape 11 market days remaining. S&P 500 up 27% year to date. Nasdaq up 35% year to date. Dow up 16% year to date. Matt, unless something unprecedented happens in the next two weeks, 2024 will go down as a good year for stock investors.
- [01:24]
Matt Argersinger
Oh, that's, that's an understatement, Dylan. Yeah, good. I'd say remarkable year. Anytime you can have the broader market up almost 30% is a pretty amazing year for the market. But you know, actually, Dylan, it's been a remarkable two year run for the market. If you look at the NASDAQ 100 since the start of 2023, it's up nearly 100%. The S&P 500 is up more than 60%. And I'll just say this, and this is something David Gardner says all the time. The market is up two out of every three years. We've had two really strong years. Now, valuations kind of where they're at, especially for the US Stock market. I mean, this is from Yardeni Research. The S&P 500 is currently trading at a 4 P E multiple. This is based on earnings for the new year 2025, it's trading at a 4P E multiple of 22. You kind of have to go back to 1999 to get a multiple that's higher than that. And by the way, Yardeni's Mega Cap 8, which is defined as Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia and Tesla, the companies we talk about all the time, they're trading at an average 4pmultiple of 31. So two strong years closing in on record valuations. Can we or should we expect 2025 to be another year where the market goes up 20% or more? I think things get a little more challenging from here. But that's just me.
- [02:44]
Bill Mann
You know, it's really interesting. Thomas Peterfy, who is the founder of Interactive Brokers said the other day that the Magnificent Seven represents about 70% of the trading volumes on their platform. And he also came out and said, you know what else is up this year and this should be no surprise. Whatso margin loans are up 16%. So there is definitely a risk on environment that we are in. And the really remarkable thing to me about this year is ultimately how stable it's been. There haven't been huge swings, it's just been, hey, the market's up half a percent every single day it seems and ultimately there is nothing quite as destabilizing as long term stability.
- [03:30]
Dylan Lewis
So Bill's number for the year was that 70% IAB activity and kind of showing some of the concentration there. You hit at that a little bit as well. Matt, when you were talking about the big companies that are in focus and we are checking in on the valuations of there. What's your stat for the year?
- [03:47]
Matt Argersinger
Well, it's funny, I also have a 70% number and it's sort of similar to Bill's 70%. But this is coming from Rukia Sharma. I hope I'm pronouncing that first name correctly but he is the chair of Rockefeller big money management firm. He wrote a piece in the Financial Times a couple weeks ago that with the headline the mother of all Bubbles maybe a tad hyperbolic, I don't know. But in that article he points to the fact that US companies alone now account for roughly 70% of the global market cap. That's of course far higher than America's 20, 27% share of the global economy. It's of course much, much higher than America's 4% share of the global global population. And Sharma also points out that in 2024 foreigners are on pace to purchase $1 trillion of US debt. That's almost double the flows the entire Eurozone and 70% of the 13 trillion in total capital flows to private investments that stock, bonds, corporate debt, it's all flowing to the us So I think we all agree at this table America is an exceptional place. It's an exceptional place to invest. It's an exceptional place to do business. But are we really this exceptional? I mean, I'm sure Bill would agree. I think foolish investors would be well served to start looking a little bit, just a little bit outside the US for some opportunities. And by the way, I'm looking in the mirror at this as well.
- [05:10]
Bill Mann
We need to be really careful that we're not just talking about mean reversion investing because yeah, the US market is rather expensive and it is historically expensive versus other countries. But I think in a risk on environment, what you are seeing in, you know, in the diversion between the US and a lot of other countries is that we have a much different attitude about risk and capital formulation formation than you see particularly in Europe where they have now zero of the largest 10 companies in the world by market cap. They are all in the United States. And for whatever else you want to say about it, it's not by accident.
- [05:54]
Dylan Lewis
As you guys are factoring in the valuation side of things, the concentration side of things both within the US and also the US's presence in the global markets. Are you incorporating that into how you are managing your own money for the year? Are you, are you putting a little bit more cash on the side as we head into 2025? Matt I, I, I, I would like.
- [06:15]
Matt Argersinger
To let, let's say, let's put it that way. Dylan. I haven't, I, I am pretty much fully invested across all my portfolios. But it does have me thinking that maybe given where we've come the past two years as we've talked about, having a little cash on the sidelines would.
- [06:29]
Bill Mann
Not hurt Bill you no, I'm pretty much fully invested. I have taken a little bit more into and put it into companies that I guess you would describe as value driven. I don't see as many, you know, obvious bargains as you would have seen 18 months ago. But that doesn't mean that the market is, has, has overshot at all. I mean I think that there are, there is plenty to be said for the great change that we are seeing now. The, the capital efficiency of the companies, particularly at the largest end of the US stock market.
- [07:08]
Dylan Lewis
I want to check in on some of the winners and losers. We, we talk about Nvidia all the time. So I'm, I'm not going to bring it into this discussion. Other say up 170%. We have to name check it.
- [07:20]
Bill Mann
What company was that? I haven't heard of this.
- [07:23]
Dylan Lewis
This is crazy little chip company number three when it comes to top performers in the S&P 500 this year. A lot of other names we talk about plenty. Palantir at the top of that list. Axon in the top five. Something I want to zoom in on with some of the winners for 2024. Five out of the top 10 performers in the S&P 500 are companies with energy exposure. Vistra Corp. Number two, GE, Vernova number five, Texas Pacific Land Corp. Number seven, Targa Resources and Constellation Energy rounding out the top 10. Bill, what's going on here?
- [07:57]
Bill Mann
You know, just a moment ago I was warning against mean reversion investing, but here's the thing about means. They're really powerful and they do love to revert. And the energy sector is a, is a big example. In 2021, the energy sector made up about 3% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. And what you see, I mean, even at the time when we were talking about the metaverse and crypto, and now you're seeing it with AI, none of this is happening without some real investments into energy across the board. And so you are seeing companies that have been ignored for a very long time. Suddenly people are paying attention to the fact that, hey, our future requires an enormous amount of electricity, an enormous amount of power. And if we don't have it, then every other thing that we, that we are thinking is going to happen won't happen.
- [08:58]
Matt Argersinger
Couldn't agree more, Bill. And I just have to say. I know, Dylan, I said, I know you said we can't talk about it, but I have to because Bill brought up the energy sector. If you look at Nvidia's market cap right now, $3.5 trillion, you could buy the entire. If you sold Nvidia, you could buy the entire energy sector. All the companies you just talked about, plus the giants like Exxon, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, everything else, you'd still have money left over to buy Walmart, Coca Cola and JP Morgan. And by the way, if you did that, you'd be getting more dividends from those companies than Nvidia earns an entire year. So sorry, I just had to bring it into the conversation.
- [09:36]
Dylan Lewis
Just again, it's the ultimate conglomerate. You know, if Nvidia were to own all those businesses, it's the like Chevron, Texon, Chipotle of Walmart a couple years ago.
- [09:48]
Bill Mann
Man, I can't wait to start researching this obscure company that you guys have been talking about.
- [09:53]
Dylan Lewis
I think you're going to like what you see, Bill. Those are some of the clear winners of 2024. I do want to talk about some of the losers. Matt, what makes the list for you?
- [10:03]
Matt Argersinger
Well, pretty much every reit, especially the ones I've talked about on this show. I mean, it's been a tough slog for the real estate sector for two years now. If you look at the average real estate ETF, up about 10% this year, not a bad year really, but just really lagging behind the market, of course, which is again almost up 30%. And by the way, real estate is one of those few sectors that still has not recovered all its losses from the 2022 bear market. If you look at the Vanguard Real Estate ETF, it's still down about 19% from its former high from a few years ago. So for a guy who likes REITs and invests in them, it hasn't felt good the past two years. But I'm getting to see potential opportunity that, you know, talk about mean reversion. As Bill was saying, they don't love you back. They don't.
- [10:48]
Dylan Lewis
What would be a radio show, radio show appearance by Matt Argersinger if we didn't talk a little real estate? Bill, what's on your loser list this year?
- [10:56]
Bill Mann
For me it's got to be the low cost full serve restaurants, the casual dining restaurants. You know, obviously Red Lobster has gone bankrupt, TGI Fridays, Chili's, they are all in a great deal of distress and I think it has to do with the fact that there's been a trade down from those restaurants in an inflationary environment and there has not been as much of a trade down from the top end to the lower end.
- [11:19]
Dylan Lewis
All right, gents, appreciate you bringing your stories. We're going to come right back in a minute with the stories that our listeners probably forgot about. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Dylan Lewis here on air with Bill Mann and Matt Argersinger. We are recapping an excellent year for the market in 2024 and looking at some of the major themes in the investing world. Maybe reminding our listeners a little bit about some stories that they forgot about. And Bill, I love the full year show. I love the look back. But the stories people forgot about is my favorite segment. And there have been no shortage of headlines, no shortage of really big market moving things this year in that flurry some easy things to miss or kind of have slipped to the back of your mind. What do you want to bring back forward?
- [12:09]
Bill Mann
I'm old enough to remember August 5th of this year in which we had a very short lived global financial crisis based on the Japanese yen carry trade. We woke up and the Nikkei 225 had dropped more than 12%, which, I don't know if you know, this is kind of a lot.
- [12:29]
Dylan Lewis
Quite a bit.
- [12:29]
Bill Mann
Yeah, yeah, that's more than usual. It was a massive drop. And it had to do with the fact that Japan, for the first time in decades was preparing, seemed to be preparing to raise their interest rates at a period of time in which the US and other markets were most likely going to be lower in rates. And so what happens is a lot of people will borrow money in a cheap currency and use it to invest in speculative instruments in the countries where currency is more expensive. And so it was this wild unwinding. It lasted, I don't know, 48 hours, but there was a pretty scary 48 hours and now we've just forgotten about it. Everything is fine.
- [13:12]
Matt Argersinger
Yeah, the VIX went up to like 65, Bill. It was like the highest since the global financial crisis. It was amazing for, yeah, just for that really short period of time.
- [13:21]
Dylan Lewis
And as it happened, it affected The S&P 500, I think several whole percentage points. It felt like a big, massive move for investors here in the United States. Even though it was all related to stuff happening when it came to monetary policy abroad, the market has continued to march on, Bill. It has not, it has not seemed to mind the yen carry trade at all.
- [13:40]
Matt Argersinger
No.
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Bill Mann
If you look at the chart now, you'll see this tiny little blip in the chart that, you know, it's super easy to forget what happened because ultimately it didn't matter. But it did that day.
- [13:51]
Dylan Lewis
Matt, what do you want to bring back into front and center for investors as we wrap up the year?
- [13:56]
Matt Argersinger
Well, just about two weeks before this yen carry trade catastrophe hit the market, we had this little software error, if you guys remember, that brought airlines, especially Delta airlines, to a standstill for a week. I remember this pretty clearly because my 5 year old son and I were trying to get back From Boston to D.C. we got stuck at Logan Airport for like eight hours, had to get a hotel. It was a mess. But this was, yeah, this was a software glitch or that happened when Crowdstrike, I guess, tried to update some of their software, sent an update and any machines using Microsoft operating systems all of a sudden fell victim to this glitch. It froze networks, it froze databases, all kinds of stuff. Like I mentioned, airline travel came to a stand. So other companies though, around the globe were also affected. And while we're still trying to find out the ultimate financial liability of it all, it kind of also showcased just kind of how vulnerable our software systems are to changes in code or worse, hacks or cyber attacks. And so, and we kind of forget, but CrowdStrike's stock price was down about 30% or maybe even more from its high. I think it's recovered most of those losses now. But that was quite a moment there for about a week.
- [15:07]
Dylan Lewis
That is why this is my favorite discussion, is because I think across the board, when we talk about these stories, they feel so massive and impactful to shareholders and to investors in the moment. But when we take that long view, we're able to kind of see, all right, this is an opportunity for business to execute and keep moving forward. It's an opportunity for the market to keep rewarding shareholders along the way. And it's an opportunity for us as fools to live out the long term buy and hold approach that we want people to maintain. So it's a dose of reminder, I will throw one out. That is not a bad thing. It's just a thing. And I think it's an interesting market mechanics thing. I bet that listeners forgot that the SEC approved a Bitcoin Spot ETF in 2024. And the reason for that is because so much of the headlines have been about the consumer side of Bitcoin. It passing $100,000, it hitting 2 trillion in Coincap, so to speak. The AUM for Bitcoin ETFs is over $100 billion at this point. That is a lot of money. And regardless of your take on bitcoin and crypto, I think you are seeing the legitimacy path for this continue to be built out and built out. And Bill, I look at it and I say, you know what it is here. It is hard to untangle something that has been this institutionalized at this point.
- [16:24]
Bill Mann
Yeah, you can't unring that bell. And you're talking about it as an asset of stored value. And at least I think you would have to admit, even if you are a skeptic, which I am, that, you know, we have passed a, we have passed a point in which that is an arguable prospect.
- [16:44]
Dylan Lewis
I think some people could argue 2024 was the year of bitcoin. For some people that are true bitcoin truthers and believers. I'm going to give you both the opportunity to fill in the blank there though, Matt. 2024 was the year of blank for you.
- [16:58]
Matt Argersinger
Well, this might be surprising, but 2024 was the year of bankruptcies. Dylan. So this is data from S and P Global. Kind of shocking to me, but the number of corporate bankruptcies, both public and private companies, That S and P covers in their universe. The bankruptcies hit 570 as of the end of October. That puts it on pace for a 14 year high. And it could come close to exceeding 2010 when 710 companies filed for bankruptcy. And of course that was coming right out of the global financial crisis, a really vulnerable time for the economy. Surprising. And you got notable bankruptcies. Bill mentioned Red Lobster, one of the more notable ones. But we had WeWork which is a $15 billion bankruptcy. Joann stores 99 cents only a lot of stores that people are familiar with went bankrupt this year.
- [17:43]
Dylan Lewis
Bill, what are you characterizing 2024 as.
- [17:46]
Bill Mann
The year of I'm going, I'm going back Brady Bunch. But instead of Marcia, Marcia, Marcia. This entire year has been China, China, China on a bunch of different levels. We started this year with China conducting massive military exercises to really dest Taiwan. You know, try and intimidate them. You can see the Taiwanese companies are have adjusted by doing things like building plants outside of Taiwan. You now see China really tried to re reignite its own economy. It's pushing a piece of spaghetti by trying to solve a demand side issue with supply side economics. Good luck to them. But China is a big, big story for 2020.
- [18:32]
Dylan Lewis
For I appreciate right after I brought us up, you guys brought me right back down. Right on a downer there.
- [18:38]
Bill Mann
Everything is terrible. Back to you, Dylan.
- [18:45]
Dylan Lewis
Bill, Matt, we're going to see you guys a little bit later in the show. Up next, we've got your last minute gift guide and how the toy industry is trying to offer more discount options this holiday season. Stay right here. Bill thinks about full money. Way to. I know you can't see the bottom. Believe me, it's a long way down.
- [19:06]
Matt Argersinger
He's the man with all the choice.
- [19:12]
Dylan Lewis
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Dylan Lewis. As we tape today's show, we're less than two weeks away from Christmas day and if you put off some of your holiday shopping, don't worry, you're in good company. So have I to get on track and up speed on the trends this holiday season, I caught up with James Zahn. He's the editor in chief at the Toy Book and my go to for the state of play for the holidays. James, thanks for joining me on Motley Fool Money.
- [19:34]
James Zahn
Thanks for having me again. Looking forward to this.
- [19:37]
Dylan Lewis
Yeah. It's becoming an annual visit and we are very appreciative of it. I want to dig right in here for 2024. What's hot, what's not when it comes.
- [19:46]
James Zahn
To toys, well, there's a lot of classic stuff that's been reinvented. And I think one of the coolest items we've seen this year comes from Hasbro, which is the Play DOH pizza delivery scooter. So they've taken Play doh, which they've been making for decades, and this tactile kind of compound play. And then they made a ride on which looks a lot like a Vespa scooter. And it has all kinds of things built into it for different play value. That there's molds that the kids can make pizza and other things and then pretend they're the delivery driver. And when they get to their destination, they can flip down a side and the cash register is there and then charge their friend or family member for this pizza and then be on their way. And of course, parents love the fact that it all packs right back into it. So I think that's an innovative new concept to combine active play with the creative play from there. I think Fat Brain Toys, their Air Tubes line has been very innovative. It's been very hot. I've actually heard that, unfortunately, depending on how you look at it, some of the flippers are going after this one because It's a about $150 base kit where kids are going to learn about things like velocity and the speed of air. And they put these foam balls through the tubes. And then they have an expansion pack that has a wacky waving inflatable flailing arm tube man that the kids can play with. And this is one of those toys too, that transcends where I think the box might even say something like 0 to 100 on it. Grown ups love this thing too. And they can make layouts that go throughout their living room or family room. And it's a lot of fun. Nintendo is on the video game side. They came out with a ton of games. It's a little bit unusual. You usually have that one or two sort of big titles. For fall they did five or six of them. There's a new Legend of Zelda game. There's Mario Party Jamboree, which up to 20 folks can play online at one time. And there's 100, 120 mini games built into that. There's sequel to Luigi's Mansion. There's a Mario and Luigi Brotherhood game. Lots of fun. And the Switch is one of those game consoles that because you can play with other folks, friends and family, it's a nice bonding thing through the holidays.
- [22:04]
Dylan Lewis
I remember last year when we were talking about this. You had kind of noted that there are some pitfalls when it comes to the tech reliant toys or the app reliant toys. And I want to get your take on the story that I saw this week. The headline.
- [22:18]
James Zahn
Oh, I know what it is.
- [22:19]
Dylan Lewis
You know where I'm going with this one?
- [22:21]
James Zahn
Is it, is it moxie?
- [22:22]
Dylan Lewis
It is, yeah, yeah. The $800 AI robot that the company is now shutting down. What is your take on this?
- [22:29]
James Zahn
So my take is that I actually have about a thousand words written on this that I haven't published yet. But I, you know the band the Hives, they've got the song, hates it to say I told you so. Yeah, I, I really do. Because 11 years ago I wrote a review of a toy called Zimmies that was basically a plush alien, but it was dependent on an adult putting their iPhone, which at the time I think we were on iPhone3 in the face of this thing. And then there was an app and the app became the expressions of the toy. And at the time I said, I think the real business here is the app, not the plush, because anybody can make a plush. But what happens when the support for that app goes away? The toy is essentially dead. And I had equated that to how are tech toys going to become timeless? Whereas if I go back now, today, 40 years, I find an old Teddy Ruxpin, you know, I can put a tape in it, batteries, it works these cloud based toys. And now we've had an incredible year on the development side where there's a lot of AI coming into toys. But already now we see this 800 toy goes away. So now you have to, you have to talk to your kids essentially about death. That this was a toy that was designed to be a companion and to teach kids emotion and compassion. And if you look at that, that frequently asked questions that they put up about closing, they can't even tell you definitively when it's going to shut down. So it could literally die in front of the kids because they're like, it could be today, it could be tomorrow. We honestly can't tell you. So that is a concern. And I also saw just within the past year, Toy Fair 2023 was in New York in September of, of last year. And one of the products that came out was a AI version of an old toy from the 70s called 2XL from Mego. And they rushed to ship some of those for the last holiday season and then did a formal launch in March. I kid you not, this morning after this conversation started, I went to their website and visitors are greeted with a pop up that says we are investigating an app outage. More details to come and the toy is not available on their website and Amazon says currently unavailable. So I think this is a very cautionary tale.
- [25:08]
Dylan Lewis
So one of the things I wanted to get your take on too with what we're looking at for the holidays and both the toy and entertainment space is we had a lot of really big names this holiday season at the box office. A lot of big recognizable names. Wicked, Moana 2, Gladiator 2. Are you seeing those properties and the merch associated with them creep into wish lists this year?
- [25:35]
James Zahn
Gladiator I have not and I know it was years ago and the movie was even old at that point. Funko had made some Funko Pops, I believe, based on the first Gladiator. I have not seen anything for the new one outside of the popcorn buckets, which have become a really trendy thing in the industry. They called them vessels. I know they did a couple for the movie. Wicked is the big success story because no one knew just how big that movie was going to become. They expected, of course, with the book and the Broadway play that there was going to be an audience. But I think Target had really great execution with that. They did some partnerships where they did nice pull togethers in their stores. They had exclusive merchandise. Mattel has the dolls. Jack Specific's disguise division makes the costumes for Wicked and those are on the market. And some of those are what we call everyday dress up too, where the kids can. It's not just a Halloween or a seasonal thing, but some really great products there. Moana 2 is back in action and actually Jax is making Moana 2 toys as well and so is Mattel as well as the same two companies are both doing Moana. I think the next big one that's going to hit here this week is sonic the hedgehog 3. There's a nice assortment of toys with that and very interesting trajectory with the Sonic movies. The first movie had very few toys because no one knew if that movie was going to be a success or not because at that time video game movies were really hit and miss. But it was almost a one, two punch of Detective Pikachu from Pokemon and Sonic the Hedgehog coming out and being great movies. So the toys have gotten better and they've become more of them each time.
- [27:33]
Dylan Lewis
You mentioned the relationship between Wicked and Target and it feels like they have followed a fairly similar playbook to what Barbie did with its release where you Have a massive, highly anticipated release. You have this incredibly coordinated merch retail strategy as well. I feel like people in the toy business, but also in the movie business are probably taking notes on that style and we might wind up seeing some more of it.
- [28:03]
James Zahn
It's an old school approach that we need to see more of. And I have actually been all year, I've been a little bit notoriously aggressive towards the retail side of the business because retail presentation and I live in this toy bubble, but I see all of it. And I also worked in the retail side of the business many years ago. It's pretty dismal in the US compared to the international markets. If you go into an international toy seller like a Smith's or the Entertainer or Hamley's or something, these great presentations. And then we're even seeing a lot of really exciting retail activations throughout Asia, Dubai. Big statements that used to be a thing here where if there was a new product launch or a new movie, you could walk into, of course, Toys R Us or Target or Kmart back in the day, Walmart. And at both entrances of the store you would typically walk into an environment that was built around that film and it would have the toys and everything else that goes with it. All the ancillary stuff, I don't see as much of that anymore. And I think that's a bit of an issue. Wicked tapped into that in a bigger way, in my opinion than Barbie with the Target promo because they had all of it. They had, they had the toys, they had the clothes, they had a, a lot of fashion involved in that. But then they also have like, I think it's better Betty Crocker cake and muffin mixes and their cereal and all of the things. In a way think of Star wars like when the prequels came out about, well, 25 years ago now. I think when the Phantom Menace came out, there was that big retail presentation, marketing statement, retail theater. And I'd like to see more of that. And I think there's a lot of opportunities for people to do that. I'd like to see, of course, the big boxes like to see Walmart getting involved in that a little bit more. Macy's has a lot of opportunity. I mean they've got a Toys R Us department in every store. So it's pretty interesting how that all.
- [30:11]
Dylan Lewis
Plays out on the retailer side. One of the things we've been following over the course of the year has been this trend of consumers either trading down or delaying for a lot of purchases. And that's looked like A lot of would be Target shoppers instead going to Walmart or people deciding, you know, I'm going to delay that more discretionary purchase. And yet we look at some of the early numbers we've seen on Black Friday, some of the insights from Cyber Monday and it seems like the spend has continued. Is this just people find the way they find the budget when it comes to the holiday gifts or is there anything else going on here?
- [30:50]
James Zahn
The one time of the year when parents are typically not going to skimp on their kids is going to be the holidays. And that's been a tradition for years. Parents want to do the best they can for their kids. So you will see some of those spends in the toy department. Inflation has been a huge issue. A lot of the other economic concerns, a lot of mixed messages out there. I'm sure you see it with the job market. One side says hey, it's great. One side says, no it's not. People get concerned, they hear all of the noise and then they don't know and they kind of pull back. So what's happened on the toy side is that toy makers and retailers are really being collaborative in developing new products that hit certain price points. So we're seeing this year a lot of 9.99 toys, sort of 9, 10, 15, 20, 25. That's sort of the sweet spot. You look at what a lot of these companies are doing. Hasbro for example, last year they had a 70 Furby. This year it's a ten dollar fur Blet. It's a little, little version MGA Entertainment with their Miniverse line and a lot of other toys that are in that 10 to 15 range. That's really, really important. And you from the get go to hit this. And then now we've got this other factor which is if tariff concerns kick in, I mean the concerns have kicked in, but if tariffs actually happen, that's a whole new layer of trouble that the industry needs to fight off again.
- [32:26]
Dylan Lewis
What's amazing is I think when we think about shrinkflation, it is always with food you are getting slightly less for that thing that you used to buy or retailers trying to offer slightly less to hit a more accessible price point. I have never thought about toys being a possibility for shrinkflation and yet these smaller Furbies, some of these smaller toys, probably a little bit easier for some of these companies to produce and make cost effective in a tough environment.
- [32:55]
James Zahn
That's true. And then you also have companies designing for the value channels now. Take five below, for example. It's very very well known for having trendy products really tap into that tween market. And tweens and even teens now very important to the toy business as well. So in the past where you might have say some closeouts or something, go into that value channel, now they're designing for the Value channel and they're hitting different scales of product. And one, one great one I can point out, there's this company in LA called the Loyal Subjects and they have found a niche in resurrecting old brands and making them super popular again right now. Rainbow Brite and Strawberry Shortcake and they have the big dolls but they also have the miniature collectibles and those you can go to five below and find. And they're, they're designed for that. They're designed to be a five dollar toy. So if you have five dollars, they've got you. You want to spend 20, well, they got you on that too. But you get them at different places.
- [33:59]
Dylan Lewis
Listeners, you can catch James piece on Moxie in the show notes for today's episode if you're listening to our podcast and you can catch his coverage on the industry over@toybook.com also, we want to know what was on your holiday list this year. Let us know what the must have items were. Our email is radioool.com we're going to take a quick break, but don't go anywhere. Matt Argersinger and Bill Mann are going to be coming back in just a minute with stocks on their radar. You're listening to Motley for Money. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and the Motley fool may have formal recommendations for or against so buyers sell anything based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Motley fool only picks products and personally recommend to friends like you. I'm Dylan Lewis, joined again by Matt Argersinger and Bill Mann. Gents, we've spent a lot of time reminiscing so we are going to jump right in to stocks on our radar this week. As always, our man behind the glass, Rick Engdahl is going to hit you with a question. Bill, you're up first. What are you looking at?
- [35:15]
Bill Mann
This week my company is called Nebius Group. It went into a cocoon. It was a Russian do everything company called Yandex and I don't know if you guys heard but Russia is bad. But it is now has come back. It is a Dutch company called Nebius and they run data Centers. They have some huge assets that I think are deeply undervalued. Interestingly enough, they got a $700 million investment from Nvidia announced this week. It has come back from not necessarily the dead, but it has come back from exile. It's going to be really interesting to see what this company does going forward.
- [35:53]
Dylan Lewis
Rick, a question about Nebius. I got nothing.
- [36:01]
Matt Argersinger
Very nebulous.
- [36:02]
Bill Mann
Nebulous. Terrible names.
- [36:04]
Dylan Lewis
We have some follow ups in a moment. Matt, what is on your radar this week?
- [36:09]
Matt Argersinger
So guys, I'm reading an excellent book called Shareholder Yield by MEB Faber. In the book he really talks about this alternative, or I guess Faber would argue a superior approach to dividend investing, which is shareholder yield, which is dividends plus net share buybacks plus net debt reduction. And Faber is the CIO and co founder of Cambria Capital Management. They have some ETFs. One of those ETFs is the Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF, a mouthful ticker FYLD. It gives investors and kind of instant diversification to non US Stocks, which is great based on the conversations we've had on the show, but also dividends, shareholder yield, it comes with a yield right now of 4.3%. I'm interested.
- [36:49]
Dylan Lewis
Rick, a question about an ETF. Is Matt allowed to do that?
- [36:53]
Matt Argersinger
I think I broke the rules. Sorry. Why?
- [36:56]
James Zahn
Why?
- [36:56]
Matt Argersinger
Why did you break the rules? I guess. Sorry, my, my game is weak today, Rick.
- [37:02]
James Zahn
Sounds broken.
- [37:04]
Dylan Lewis
Yes. Suggestion, Matt.
- [37:05]
Matt Argersinger
I just broke this show. I'm sorry.
- [37:07]
Dylan Lewis
You're not going to turn that into a nice eloquent discussion of diversification and the merits of spreading your bets or anything like that?
- [37:14]
Matt Argersinger
Matt, everything Dylan just said, that's, that's what I'm going with.
- [37:19]
Dylan Lewis
You have two very different choices here, Rick. An ETF and something that you, you didn't even dignify with a follow up question or a comment with Nebulous. Which one is going on your watch list this week?
- [37:32]
Bill Mann
You know, Matt has, he's dressed better.
- [37:35]
Dylan Lewis
I'm gonna go with Matt.
- [37:36]
James Zahn
I am.
- [37:38]
Dylan Lewis
Wow. You can't see it but he, you know that. That's the beauty of it. You can't see it.
- [37:43]
Matt Argersinger
A blue sweater, I guess. Blue eyes. Thank you, Rick.
- [37:47]
Dylan Lewis
Rick, thank you for all your work behind the scenes and for hopping into our radar stock talk with your comments, your questions, your occasional meh in 2024 and of course Matt, Bill, appreciate you guys bringing the stocks and bringing the analysis every single week. You are on the show finally to bring us home. Listeners, thank you for tuning in and indulging us all year. It was an awesome 2024 for Motley Fool Money. We won the best money and finance show for the year. We also found out that we have listeners in 140 countries. We get to do this because you are out there listening and you have already given us so much when it comes to your time, your attention. If you still feel like giving, if you're still feeling generous and you want to help us in our attempt to take over the globe in 2025 and reach all of the 190 plus countries out there, leave us a five star review. Wherever you listen to our podcast helps us reach more listeners. And if you've got ideas for the show, that's a great gift too. Radioool.com is where you can send those ideas. That's going to do it for this week's Motley Fool Money Radio show. I'm Dylan Lewis. Thank you for listening today and all year. We'll see you next.