Motley Fool Money: Three Stocks for a Tougher Economy
Date: February 17, 2026
Host: Emily Flippen
Guests: Dan Kaplinger, Sanmeet Deo
Overview
In this episode, Motley Fool Money explores three stocks that could outperform in a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by sticky inflation, fewer interest rate cuts, and slowed economic growth. Each analyst presents a “worst-case scenario” pick, highlighting businesses with attributes to weather difficult times: affordability, recession resistance, and pricing power.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Macro Backdrop and Motivation
- Context: Recent economic reports show increased uncertainty, with persistently high inflation and the likelihood of elevated interest rates stretching further into the year.
- Purpose: Given these challenges, the team seeks stocks that defy macro headwinds and can thrive even if economic conditions worsen.
“If there are really any businesses that we think can do well if we’re heading for an environment of, say, higher inflation, less rate cuts, and slower economic growth... sometimes there are exceptions to the rule.”
— Emily Flippen (00:41)
2. Stock Pick #1: Planet Fitness (PLNT)
Presented by: Sanmeet Deo
Segment: [01:20 - 05:57]
Rationale
- Planet Fitness is positioned as a “trade down winner,” offering affordable fitness in tough times.
- Consumer behavior studies show that while big luxuries are cut, small affordable habits, like a gym membership, often remain.
- The model endured the pandemic—“the worst case scenario for any gym”—and rebounded.
Key Stats
- As of the end of 2025: ~20.8 million members, ~2,900 clubs.
- Same-store sales growth: 6.7% in 2025, with robust new club openings.
- Outperformed during previous rate hike cycles:
- 2018: 10.2% same-store sales
- 2023-24: 8.7% and 5% respectively
Notable Quotes
“If inflation stays sticky and rates stay higher for longer... people cut big luxuries, but often keep affordable habits.”
— Sanmeet Deo (01:31)
“They went through what you could imagine was the worst case scenario for any gym — the pandemic... and actually came out much better than I expected.”
— Emily Flippen (02:54)
What to Watch
- Churn (membership drop-off) is critical: Low prices discourage cancellations, but increasing churn or pressure on franchisee-level costs like labor, rent, or utilities are concerns.
- The “Black Card” premium membership mix is a key performance indicator, as is competition from other gyms.
3. Stock Pick #2: Dollar General (DG)
Presented by: Dan Kaplinger
Segment: [07:31 - 12:54]
Rationale
- Serves cost-conscious shoppers—especially vital in a “K-shaped” recovery where middle and lower income consumers are most affected.
- Ubiquity: Nearly 21,000 locations across the US, offering convenience and value.
- Has adapted to inflation (using shrinkflation, bargaining with suppliers), able to manage inventory creatively to maintain margins without raising prices as rapidly as traditional grocers.
Notable Quotes
“Dollar General has quietly become one of the most ubiquitous chains in retail... the most convenient place to go to get the things you need.”
— Dan Kaplinger (08:40)
“It’s not perfectly consumer-friendly, but in many cases friendlier than what you’re seeing at traditional grocery stores where... they’re shrinking the packages and charging a lot more.”
— Dan Kaplinger (11:27)
Risks & Opportunities
- Inventory management and efficient expansion are critical, especially with nearly 21,000 locations and potential for more.
- Store experience is not glamorous, but convenience and value are differentiated; competition and market saturation are questions.
“Convenience is a factor and so the cost is low enough. It doesn’t cost that much to build a Dollar General store compared to a larger department store. So they can push the boundaries of saturation in ways that other chains can’t.”
— Dan Kaplinger (12:28)
4. Stock Pick #3: Rollins (ROL)
Presented by: Emily Flippen
Segment: [13:51 - 15:51]
Rationale
- Rollins is a growth-oriented pest control business, often overlooked by investors.
- Features: Low debt exposure (good in a high-rate environment), recurring revenue, proven pricing power, non-cyclical necessity.
- Ability to make value-accretive acquisitions, especially as competitor valuations dip in downturns.
Key Stats
- Targeting 7–8% organic growth in 2026, with additional “white space” from future acquisitions.
- Resilient to economic cycles (“demand doesn’t go away in lower growth environments”).
Notable Quotes
“Demand doesn’t go away in lower growth economic environments... a really nice recurring revenue service model with proven pricing power.”
— Emily Flippen (14:26)
“It’s hard to see AI disruption there either... some protection against that I think is valuable.”
— Dan Kaplinger (15:54)
Risks & Differentiators
- While debt is present, it’s serviceable.
- Home services, especially pest control, are difficult to forgo or delay—even in recessions.
Panel Reflections & Final Thoughts
Segment: [15:51 - End]
- Dan notes that Dollar General stock has almost doubled in a year, while Rollins and Planet Fitness may have greater room for appreciation.
- Sanmeet underscores the durability of home services: “Maintaining a home is an ongoing task... you can only [cut back] for so long before pests start invading.”
- Emily reiterates that each pick illustrates a different defensive quality: affordable luxury (Planet Fitness), trade-down necessity (Dollar General), and recession-proof recurring service (Rollins).
“Even during tough economic times, there are things that people will continue to pay for because it’s comparatively affordable and infinitely beneficial to their quality of life. And cheap gym memberships are that for a lot of people.”
— Emily Flippen (16:55)
Timestamps: Notable Segments and Quotes
- 00:41 – Economic overview and why defensive stock picks matter
- 01:20 – Sanmeet’s pitch: Planet Fitness as a trade-down winner
- 02:54 – Emily: How Planet Fitness survived the pandemic
- 03:37 – Dan’s perspective as a frequent member and KPIs to watch
- 07:31 – Dan’s pitch: Dollar General and “K-shaped” economic pressures
- 11:27 – On shrinkflation strategies at Dollar General
- 12:28 – Store saturation and expansion potential
- 13:51 – Emily’s pitch: Rollins, the pest control compounder
- 14:26 – Rollins’ growth and defensibility
- 15:54 – Dan on Rollins’ protection from AI disruption
- 16:55 – Emily’s summary: Small luxuries and necessary services remain strong
Conclusion
The episode provides a thoughtful look at three businesses with characteristics suited for economic adversity.
- Planet Fitness: An affordable “feel-good” expense with strong retention.
- Dollar General: A staple for budget-conscious consumers, with scale-based resilience.
- Rollins: A recession-proof, recurring revenue model in home services.
All three stocks offer defensiveness and upside in a challenging environment, reminding listeners that “it’s always a good time to be an investor... regardless about general economic fears.” (Emily Flippen, 16:55)