Transcript
Dan Kaplinger (0:00)
Foreign.
Robert Brokamp (0:04)
How to decide when to retire and updates from the housing market. You're listening to the Saturday personal finance edition of Motley Fool Money. I'm Robert Brocamp, and this week I speak with Motley fool contributor Dan Kaplinger about how we're each determining when we can retire. But first, here's some news items from last week, and they all have to do with housing. First up, Redfin announced that more than 40,000 home purchase agreements were canceled in December. That represents 16.3% of all homes that went under contract, the highest percentage of monthly cancellations since Redfin began tracking the metric in 2017. One reason could be that homebuyers are becoming more cautious amidst economic anxiety. After all, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is near its lowest level in 50 years, though it has ticked up a bit in recent months. But another reason is that inventory has risen, giving potential home buyers more choices. According to Chen Zhao, head of economic research at Redfin, Quote, home sellers outnumber buyers by a record margin, meaning the buyers who are in the market have options and may walk away if they believe they can find a better or more affordable home. End of quote. This rise in inventory has weighed on prices, which brings us to our second item. Last week it was announced that the S and P Case Shiller Home price index declined 0.5% 0.1% in November and grew just 1.4% year over year. That's a slowdown from what we've seen in recent years. Home prices are up more than 50% since the pandemic, including double digit gains in 2020 and 2021. Such strong price growth over the past several years may have you wondering how real estate compares to the stock market. Well, a recent article from the Bespoke Investment Group took a look and found that the 20 year return of the S and P Case Shiller Index is actually just 3.1% per year on average, as that's about what long term Treasuries have returned over the same period and much less than the 10.8% annual return from the S&P 500. Of course, with a house you can benefit from leverage and not having to put all that money down at once. On the other hand, a house's ongoing expenses like taxes, maintenance and insurance factor all those in and studies show that home price appreciation tends to be just a bit above inflation. Despite the recent slowdown in home prices, many Americans still can't afford a house. Which brings us to our number of the week and it is 75%. That's a percentage of homes on the market that are unaffordable to the average American household. According to a bank rate analysis, a family would need an annual income of $113,000 to afford a $430,000 median priced home. Unfortunately, median household income is closer to $80,000. Middle income households can afford at least 30% of the listings in only 11 of the nation's 34 largest metro areas. This level of unaffordability is due to high home prices, wage growth that has not kept up with those prices, higher mortgage rates, and not enough homes. According to bankrate, the US faces a housing deficit of about 4.7 million houses. Up next, two fools getting close to Retirement Talk about when they'll actually Retire when Motley Fool Money continues.
