C (3:26)

Yeah, well, it's really not a surprise. I think as Jason noted, this lecture has been hit. Investors have become skeptical on the industry. Right. And they're moving on to other place with investment dollars. Not at all a surprise given what we've seen in the headwinds facing this company right now.

B (3:46)

Yeah, I think for public investors. Yeah. That are looking at the stocks, that's the case because especially if you're not intimately familiar with these industries, understanding the difference between the cycles and we're at a brutally down part of the cycle right now versus the secular tailwinds, it does certainly feel like it's been left for dead right now. But when you start kind of pulling apart the cyclical manufacturer part of the business and looking at the secular tailwinds, there's a little bit more to like right now than I think you might think. And for a company like enphase, there's a few things that I think are really appealing and I think the economics might be better than people realize. Now as a starting point, ENPHASE has actually continued to take market share during the downTurn. IT and SolarEdge essentially have a duopoly in the U.S. they have about 90% of the residential share and pretty large share in Europe and other parts of emea. And they both also have really good margin and cash profiles. ENPHASE has also done a really smart thing leveraging contract manufacturing and as a result it's actually remained cash flow positive every quarter through this down cycle of the business. We can bring Fluence into the conversation here. Really had a brutal first half of the year, after a great 2024, it seems like management just really missed the mark on understanding what the business flow is going to look like. But here as we've gotten into the second half of the year, business has stabilized and management has kind of reiterated that outlook. Now, its catalysts include continued focus on deploying utility scale wind and solar and also grid resilience. You think about those are things when we come to energy storage. And after showing that it had the business model before the first half of this year, it looks like it's set up to really start generating positive cash flows as we, as we move forward.

A (5:36)

Now, that being said, part of me just wonders like, does it even really matter if there's no federal incentives or what happens to that cash flow? And Toby, I know the stock pick you up coming up for us here in just a couple of minutes is kind of the antithesis of, of this sort of pick. So when you think about playing devil's advocate to Jason's idea here, what stands out to you as key risk? Because for me, obviously federal incentives are the obvious play.

C (6:02)

Yeah, I think that is the obvious one. You can't ignore the political risk with this company. This administration is simply not as excited about renewables as past administrations have been. That's a problem, at least over the short term for the company. Now look, you might say, who cares? For instance, AI is going to boost our need for energy, so there won't really be a choice here. We got to have energy from wherever we can get it. I'm not convinced that's really the case, though. I am worried that we may be in a bit of an AI bubble and if that collapses, demand overall could go down.

B (6:36)

I think on both of those things you're right to some degree, Toby. There's absolutely no doubt the loss of those tax incentives is going to have an impact for the rest of 2025. It's actually a catalyst. Homeowners are moving really quickly to get that residential system installed before the credits expire. On the utility side, there's a little bit of a bigger time window for utilities to act. But beyond that, I think we, we're ignoring a really important thing on the math here. Utility costs are up more than 40% since 2019 in most US markets. Now that's far more than solar system costs have gone up. So between higher utility costs helping offset the need of those tax credits and then interest rates now starting to creep down. That was the news cycle last week, right. Was all about what was the Fed going to Do I think residential solar in particular Enphase is probably in better long term shape because of the secular trends than we think. And we haven't even talked about the international opportunity which I don't really want to get into very much.

C (7:37)

Yeah, all that's true. I just wonder, you know, speaking about the large scale, the industrial side of this, you know, the utility side of this, a lot of demand right now is coming from, from AI. If that bubble does burst, what does that mean? We're in an energy slump. What if we find ourselves with a bunch of half built, suddenly unneeded infrastructure here, Jason, because the demand just craters, right? What does that do to Fluence's stock price? I don't think it sends it up, does it?

B (8:04)

No, definitely not a go to the moon scenario if that happens. But I think if we look at the long tail opportunity. Yeah, AI is certainly a part of the thesis. It has to be because that's the biggest catalyst driving total energy consumption in the US by far. But large scale energy storage is about more than just AI. This is about grid resilience. Think about how much we've talked about. You live in the West, Toby. Grid resilience is a significant issue. Think about what Texas dealt with with winter storms a few years ago. We're going to continue to see a transition away from things like coal as a baseload. That means utilities will need more storage to offset wind and solar intermittency. So I think meeting the energy demands of the world is going to remain all of the above or most of the above in terms of the energy store sources and storage is going to be a really important part of that, that formula.

A (8:54)

Well I love the debate between you two and I go back to Dave Meyer actually who brought Fluence energy to me a number of I want to a couple of years ago to the Blastoff team and before AI was really a big part of the thesis and said this was just an obvious opportunity. And while the thesis I think has very much changed over the course of the past couple of years, there is part of me that thinks while there's so much volatility in the space and clearly I think investors who are interested in getting into renewable energy in this entire sector, fluence energy and phase whatever it may be, they need to have a stomach to stand the volatility that comes with a lot of the political changes that are likely to continue over the course of the next couple of years. If you believe in the OB transition and the need for renewable energy and renewable energy storage, then it sounds like Jason. There's lots of different ways to play this trend influence energy and phaser 2 to consider adding to your watch list.

B (9:45)

I think that's exactly right. And again there is still tremendous uncertainty and risk. But this is also where position sizing as investors comes in. It's a way that we can kind of offset some of that risk. Still having exposure, being able to continue to follow the story and see how it pans out and maybe take the most rule breaker important thing of all to do and that's look to add to our winners over time.

A (10:04)

Beautifully said. Up next, we're passing the torch to Toby to dig into an automotive business that has more than doubled since the start of 2024. Stick with us.

D (10:14)

You know, like many of you, I've been using AI tools for a while now. But Claude is different. Here's a quick example. When I've conducted my own LLM taste test, one thing that stood out is Claude's citations. As I was researching trending market shares in the athleisure market, for instance, the backup for each data point helped me work with Claude and dive deeper. Claude is the AI for minds that don't stop at good enough. It's a collaborator that actually understands your entire workflow and thinks with you, not for you. Whether you're debugging code at midnight or strategizing your next business move, Claude extends your thinking to tackle the problems that matter. Ready to tackle bigger problems? Sign up for Claude today and get 50% off Claude Pro when you use our link Claude AI fool. That's Claude AI fool right now for 50% off your first three months of Claude Pro. That includes access to all of the features mentioned in today's episode. Claude AI Fool.

A (11:14)

Welcome back, Toby. I want to rewind here a minute because in preparation for today's show, I asked both you and Jason to give me a quick rundown of your thesis so I could ask at least some semi intelligent followers up questions for each of your stocks. And I want to read to our listeners exactly what I read when I checked in on our show. Notes, is everybody ready? You wrote buy Finia if you don't want your portfolio to tank when Tesla goes bankrupt. Big words. Wow. Now I have to imagine there's at least some tongue in cheekness there. But I have to know that you are a bit of a bear on Tesla. So why is Finia, whose ticker I believe is P H I N if I'm not mistaken, which is almost the antithesis of Tesla, why is Finia the Better buy today.

C (11:59)

Yeah. And then let's be clear, a lot of that was just me saying, let's stare up in trouble when Emily gets up in the morning. But in seriousness, this smaller, lesser known company I think is a great way to hedge your portfolio. Not just against Tesla, but the whole EV transition, which, let's face it, is not happening as fast as some of the techno bulls might like it to. Right now. Look, Finia is an auto parts manufacturer with routes that go back over a century. This is an old company. If you're a car person, you know the brands here, Delphi, Delco, Remy Hartridge. The business and the brands have been around forever. Right, but the company itself is relatively new. This is a spin out of much larger auto supplier BorgWarner. About two years ago, July 2023, they spun out Finia. The idea here was Borg Warner wanted to focus on the future electrification of the industry. EVs and hybrids. They didn't phrase it like this, of course, but Finney was essentially created to take all the leftover nonsense that they didn't want the legacy ICE businesses that was catering to the dying parts of the industry. Well guys, as it turns out, that part of the industry has refused to die. In fact, since the spinoff, Finia has massively outperformed its former parent, Borg Warner. About a 68% total return in the past two plus years or so, versus less than 8% for Borg Warner. Finney is also outperforming the S&P 500 by a little bit. Pretty good for unloved leftovers, I would say.

B (13:32)

Toby, history is littered with spin offs that outperform their former parents. I think a big part of that is that those businesses, they don't have to compete with their siblings anymore for their parents attention, really resources. Now my question for you is that in the short term, two years, we've seen Fidia be the better investment. But will history continue to be the case here? Or will that future of electrification, that Fidia can be the hedge against will that render the company obsolete and a losing investment?

C (13:58)

Yeah, it's a legitimate concern, Jason. I think, I think it's going to take decades though before EVs overtake ICEs. The future never comes as fast as we think it will. But they're not ignoring the inevitable future. Finia is not. At least they're investing in things like hydrogen technologies, remanufacturing software and calibration tools for increasing the efficiency of ICE engines, that sort of thing. Look, if you want to believe that EVs are going to take over the world within a decade. You go ahead and do you. But if you subscribe to the reality that change tends to be more evolutionary across an industry, then there are many customers who are just fine with enhancing and improving the existing systems they use rather than totally junking in for something new. And if you think that's the case, Finia is a company that might be for you.

A (14:44)

I love that. If you subscribe to reality. Well, here's the reality I subscribe to, Toby. I take issue with the comparison to Tesla and, you know, albeit a whole one, for me to really defend Tesla here because it's a, it's a little silly for me to do so, but I'll try. Which is to say I don't really understand what makes Phineas Cash any more durable than Tesla's. Because from what I can tell, you know, Finia's profitability is pretty low, their debt's really high, and most of that cash has to be reinvested into their business. And in my opinion, despite the fact that you're right, I think the transition to electric vehicles will be slow. Finney is just another example about why auto companies are kind of generally bad investments. I mean, Tesla's valuation, we can debate that all day, all night, but Tesla has a stalwart balance sheet. It has profit margins that are more than double Phineas and its growth rates are even higher. And yes, I'm aware that both their growth rates are negative. I just don't understand how either of these companies, how you can come out looking and say, yeah, I like Finia more here.

C (15:44)

I, I think for me, Finia is not necessarily a pick against Tesla or a pick against any specific company. Right. I like it as a nice hedge against an EV transition that may be slower than expected. That appears to be the case right now. I'm not saying EVs are not going anywhere. I own two electric vehicles myself, I love them. Right. But we have to, I think, face reality that the super bowl cases have not materialized and probably will not. I like using a supplier like Finia. If you're considering hedging your bets because it actually doesn't require you to pick a winner. Right. You don't have to look at all the consumer facing companies out there in the automotive industry. This is the one that's going to win. Who's the number two EV maker to Tesla in a decade? I don't know. Right. Is it gm? Is it Toyota? Is Ford going to be the company that successfully straddles that line between the EV transition and the legacy world of ice. I don't know. The good news for fini shareholders is you don't actually have to make that pick. You can say, look, I'm going to play in the parts space. I'm going to buy a company that sells our parts to anyone and will do well in a transition, in maybe a slower transition. And we'll continue to sell parts to these legacy automakers for systems that are still very much needed in the marketplace. Do sales of new cars decline and consumers hold onto their older ones a little bit longer in the face of rising tariff costs, for instance? If that happens, great. Vinnie has got a thriving aftermarkets part business take advantage of that trend as well. So I think there are a lot of things to like and there are a lot of reasons you might look at Finia and say this is a company I want. Even if I am a believer in the EV transition ultimately happening.

A (17:22)

Yeah, that's a really good point. And there's a false dichotomy there that it's Finia in this case versus Tesla. And both actually are recommendations on the Stock Advisor Scorecard Fin through that spin off from Borg Warner as you mentioned. And Tesla actually is one of the original kind of rule breaker stock picks from Motley fool co co founder David Gardner, who I actually have a little bit of a teaser here for our listeners today. David Gardner, co founder of the Motley fool and chief rule breaker, actually just released his newest book, Rule Breaker Investing how to Pick the Best Stocks for the Future and Build Lasting Wealth. But there is more. Alongside this, David will be serving in a strategic advisory capacity for the Motley Fool's new Supernova service, one of the portfolios of which I be the co captain of. It's a service that closed in 2021 with portfolios averaging a 21.8% annual return across nine years. And Supernova will be reopening actually for the next few days. You can go TO Supernova is back.Fool.com for all the latest details and to become a VIP for the event. Coming up next, we're discussing a still small but rapidly expanding high end Chinese teaching. We'll see you in a minute.

C (18:29)

I'm Christian McCaffrey, pro running back and Abercrombie is an official fashion partner of the NFL. I'm not kidding when I say NFL by Abercrombie broke the Internet last year and I think this season's lineup is even cooler. And so does my wife who keeps stealing all my hoodies. Stay fit for the season. And Abercrombie's newest arrivals Shop NFL by Abercrombie in the app online and in store.

A (18:57)

For our last stock here. I want to try to pitch you both on a business that you've likely never heard of before, but I expect you're both going to be rightfully skeptical of. And that's Chaji Holdings. The ticker is Cha. Now this is a growing chain of high end tea houses out of China. And yes, similar to, you know, Luckin Coffee all 2020, they're expanding very aggressively via a franchise model. And I know for a lot of investors that throws off a lot of red flags. But I hope you'll hear me out in this elevator pitch and then you can cross examine me. This is a founder led company. It was started in 2017 by 23 year old Zhang Junjia who still owns more than 35% of the company actually has a market cap of around $3 billion and it just went public earlier this year. So it is new to the public markets. The stock is down admittedly nearly 50% since the IPO. But the growth this company has put forth is wild. Store count up more than 80% last year and a loyalty program that has over 200 million active members. They don't sell bubble tea. They sell high end tea lattes which sell for higher price points and come with a bit of the like Starbucks esque brand attached to them. Their GMV and store economics are absolutely incredible. The profitability is actually pretty high. And over the past 12 months the business has produced nearly $300 million worth of profits on around $2 billion in sales. The stock trades at less than 12 times price to earnings.

B (20:21)

Come on Emily, what's the catch here? A stock growing at hyper level rates based in China, trading for 12 times earnings. Let's, let's be honest here. In investing, if it sounds too good to be true, it almost always is.

A (20:36)

There's no catch. Jason, it's the perfect company. Everything's going to go right for it. No, of course there's always a catch. If I, if I had to throw something out there, obviously cannibalization, I mean this is a franchise model growth. It's leading to a massive slowdown in same store sales growth. And that similar slowdown in same store sales growth is of course leading to a similar slowdown in profits. So the market is projecting a massive crunch here on the bottom line as the business kind of like right sizes its store count. For context, they have more than 6,000 locations across the world. They're mostly in mainland China. That's a fraction of the locations of like a Luckin Coffee for comparison. But they have massively expanded very, very rapidly. And those store economics that look so good today, I imagine a couple years from now are going to look a lot less impressive.

C (21:24)

Speaking of coffee, Emily, isn't coffee better than tea? I mean, haven't we heard for so long how China for instance, right. The biggest tea market on earth is discovering a love for coffee. It is not just Starbucks, that other company you mentioned, Luckin, they're surging right now. Where does tea fit in in this world in terms of a long term growth play?

A (21:44)

Well, it's a little ironic. I'm drinking a cup of coffee as we record here today. So obviously I'm a coffee drinker, but you know, not everybody loves coffee and I like te just as much as I like coffee. And the good thing about tea is you don't have to worry about the growing conditions in certain regions to make your coffee beans. And you don't have to worry about the tariffs at least that we're experiencing right now. I will say though, this is really, it's honestly more like lattes. You can kind of imagine it, it's more of a premium brand. So I think the comparison to Luck and coffee is, is really misguided. You can almost compare more to a Starbucks because you can imagine that's more of their competition as opposed to a Luckin coffee.

B (22:24)

Caffeine, cream and sugar. That's the secret to success here. Now Toby mentioned you mentioned it too. This is a new public company that adds another layer of risk. How can a company perform in the public spotlight? So definitely kind of ramping up my normal IPO skepticism and then you double it when you're talking about China. Now, as unfair as that might be. But I'm less concerned about luck in 2.0, of course, the big scandal there with fraud, but more thinking about China's demographics. This is where their base is and China is getting very, very old very, very quickly. Is that potentially something that could unravel the growth story over the longer term?

A (23:05)

That's a really good point. And you're concerned about it being a Chinese company. Listen to U.S. markets and the concerns about it being newly public. That's all fair. Big red flags there. Of course. You can wait this one out. Actually, a lot of their expansion has been in East Asia, Malaysia in particular. So their international expansion is actually one of the bright spots for this company. They only have one location here in the, I believe it's in Los Angeles. So if you're out there, maybe go check it out. I've heard mixed reviews so far about whether or not people like the product but East Asia in particular is a big growth story for them. So it's not just about expanding within China. But I am going to put you both on the spot here as we wrap up today's show for a little lightning round. If you had to pick a company, let's say not the one that we brought obviously out of the three that we talked about today, which one are you talking with or which one are you picking? Toby, I'll start with you.

C (23:52)

Despite my skepticism here that I may have been evidencing when when Jason was talking, I think I'm going to go with energy right now. I do. You know, I have a soft spot for industry that's really been beat up and I think there is demand to be had there. And if you're looking for a great entry point, it's hard to argue, Jason, that right now is a worse entry point than what we've seen in the recent past.

B (24:18)

Jason, this is one where I have to say those compelling unit economics, the growth rate and the potential and that valuation make Chaji actually really compelling because if you find winners in those sorts of businesses and that have some brand strength, they could do really, really well. But to me it falls back to the history of industrial spin offs and the companies that are just really good at blocking and tackling. Peter lynch has talked about how businesses and industries that are everybody's turning away from you can find the biggest winners because nobody's going to compete with them. There's not any VC funded startup that's going to try to disrupt Finia. So I think Finia is the one that I'd pick. What about you Emily?

A (24:57)

To be honest, both of your picks do seem like more solid investment foundations than Chaji, even though I do think Chaji is way more fun in my opinion. But Jason, I have to go with your energy picks, Influence and Enphase. I really like both of those companies, especially Enphase Energy. And there is something that I love about about contrarian style investing in really obvious and growing industries and energy, especially renewable energy right now is one of those for me. And I realize not every investor is willing to stomach I think the volatile ride that will be investing in renewable energy for the next couple of years. But for less risk, adverse investors and people willing to take that leap, I think it could offer a fair bit of reward for that risk. So that wraps up today's show. I hope all of our investors and listeners were able to take something away from these underappreciated, underrepresented, rated small caps. Jason and Toby, thank you both so much for joining listeners. Be sure to join us for tomorrow's show where Travis will be discussing how the DTC trend went wrong and what the future of brands like Allbirds, Warby, Parker and Casper may look like in an agentic shopping world. As always, people in the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and the Motley fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance contents follow the Motley fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out the show notes for Jason hall and Toby Bordelon and the entire Motley fool money team. I'm Emily Flippin. We'll see you tomorrow.