
The market plays a love/hate relationship with earnings from Fool stocks, and we talk about the ways you and your partner can be on the same page this Valentine’s Day and for years to come.
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Dylan Lewis
The trade desk's down, but the ads are all right. This week's Motley Foo Money radio show starts now.
Jason Moser
Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money.
Dylan Lewis
But you can give them to the birds and be.
Emily Flippen
From Fool Global headquarters. This is Motley Fool Money.
Dylan Lewis
It's the Motley Fool Money radio show. I'm Dylan Lewis. Joining me over the airwaves, Motley fool senior analysts Jason Moser and Emily Flippen. Fools. Great to have you both here.
Jason Moser
Hey, hey, hey.
Robert Brokamp
Good to be here.
Dylan Lewis
We've got some big moves for big time fool stocks. How to talk about money with your partner this Valentine's Day. And love letters to our favorite stocks. We are going to dig right into company results this week because we had a fairly large earnings week for a lot of the companies that our team and our members follow. Some big moves up, some big market reactions down. Jason, unfortunately for the trade desk, one of those companies that is in the red this week.
Emily Flippen
Yes, yes. Big, big sell off as we saw. And as a shareholder, I feel that along with everyone else who owns shares. But this is a company I've owned for many years and will gladly continue hanging onto. I think when we look at the results and how the market reacted, the question you have to ask, why did the market react this way? It's because they missed internal benchmarks for the first time in 33 quarters. Then guidance for 17% revenue growth in this current quarter was underwhelming. Then you ask yourself, well, why did they miss and why are they presenting this underwhelming guidance? I think that's the, that's the downside of a company that's known for consistently exceeding a high bar. At some point you do miss and disappoint, you can become a little bit of a victim of your own success. It wasn't a nasty quarter. Revenue was up 26%. They saw margin expansion. Adjusted earnings per share up 43%. They continue to gain market share. They saw $12 billion in spend on their platform for the year versus $9.6 billion a year ago. You have to believe they definitely benefited from the election season there. I think the UL question here is, is this a longer term problem or is this a temporary situation that they will be able to get past? I would lean more toward the latter there. I think a lot of that is in simple terms, they would have us believe that this is more or less tantamount to growing pains. That may be the case. There's clearly competition out there in this space. But it does seem like this is a business that's still doing a lot. A lot of these unforced errors were based more on investing in the future and building out this business for the next level of growth that they talked about in the.
Dylan Lewis
Yeah. CEO Jeff Green was quick to say we were really running into internal issues and execution issues and the market looked at that and said we're going to take 30% off of where you were before you reported earnings. But he went to the metaphor of a sports team and talking about how we had some issues but we feel like we are a championship team. And I can't help but draw a comparison to what we saw in the super bowl last week. I look at the Chiefs and I say they played a bad game. Are they still one of the favorites the super bowl next year?
Emily Flippen
Yeah, probably more than likely. More than likely. I think there's also been a lot of conversation here over the last several days regarding companies like Applovin in the ad tech space and competition that's starting to heat up there. I think those are absolutely fair questions to ask when we look at something like An AppLovin Number one, the stock has been on a tear obviously up something close to 1000%. There is a very optimistic vibe there in regard to that company today. But they're pursuing, they're looking to that Connect TV market and they're really just getting underway as to assessing and then ultimately pursuing that opportunity. That is a major part of the Trade Desks business. It's the fastest growing part in the biggest part of the business. I think those questions about that competition are fair.
Robert Brokamp
Although I will say in the case of Applovin I think this is a timing issue in the issue of the trade desk. Applovin is basically solely mobile at this point. If they're looking in the area of CTV that's connected tv that's entirely new to them. So really I think the better connection here between the Trade Desk is to look at a business like Roku which has really been solely operating in the area of CTV who partners with not just the Trade Desk but all of these other demand side platforms and executing upon their strategy. So I think that comparison between Applovin and the Trade Desk was one that of convenience for investors because they reported at similar days, one went up a lot, moment down a lot and they're like oh look, these two companies, one's doing well, one's doing poorly. In reality they're not competing over the same market share, at least not yet.
Emily Flippen
Yeah, but they're going to get ready to and That's I think what has some people concerned. But yeah, to your point. Yep, they're still just setting roots down and trying to understand that opportunity in ctv.
Dylan Lewis
Well, Emily, let's take a little bit of a deeper look at Roku. We got an update from them this week as well. Also a way for us to get a sense of what's going on in the advertising market. What'd you see there?
Robert Brokamp
Yeah, I mean look, to tell the story, I have to take you back to last quarter because last quarter for Roku, the third quarter was stellar. I mean this business beat ebitda guidance by 117% at its highest ever margin of above 9%. I mean absolutely incredible. Quarter share sank by double digits. All because management came out and said, you know what, the fourth quarter, it's not going to be good for us. I think we're looking at something like $30 million in adjusted EBITDA which is a big down draw from that 100ish million dollars that they posted in the third quarter. And you know what? Shocker. The fourth quarter, absolutely stellar. I wish this management team would stop shooting themselves in the foot here because the fourth quarter itself was great. Big disclaimer though. This is the last quarter that we're going to have streaming households and ARPU numbers for Roku. They're going to stop reporting that as we head into 2025. But all the metrics here are pointing in the right direction. They did $78 million in adjusted EBITDA. So yeah, a lot better than the $30 million they were previously guiding for to the trade desk. Prior points a performance was ad based. So some of that weakness there, just further emphasizing those were internal issues at the trade desk. Roku seems to be doing really well in the ad market. Free cash flow grew by 16%. So this business just continues to push in all the right directions.
Dylan Lewis
Usually when we see a management team move away from reporting a metric we have seen for a very long time, it's because the growth is not going to be as impressive going forward. In Roku's case, they are far and away the leading platform when it comes to smart tv. They are in I think half of the households in the United States at this point. Do you, do you think that there is so much market attention on something like ebitda because we are going from that, that TAM story to a profitability story?
Robert Brokamp
Yes and no. I will say I'm disappointed they're pulling these metrics away. I do think it is going to be more of a profitability Story in certain markets. They called out the United States and Canada in their Q and A as a good example of the areas where they're going to be more profitable. Mexico, actually, where they are also the number one selling platform as an area where they're focusing on monetization. But they're still so new in so many international markets. Brazil and other areas in South America being key. So I understand de emphasizing things like average revenue per user because that's going to come down as they expand internationally. But households is still an incredibly important metric because they lose money on the devices they sell for the sole purpose of expanding household usage so they can make up money in terms of their streaming, right. In terms of the platform revenue itself. So I expect we'll get benchmark numbers. For instance, when they meet 100 million households, I expect they'll update investors then. But I do wish we were still getting those numbers on a quarterly basis.
Dylan Lewis
Market liked what they saw this time around. Shares are up about 15%. We also saw Airbnb getting similar love from the market. Shares of the short term rental company up 15% after they reported this week. Jason, what was in the report?
Emily Flippen
Yeah, good numbers and we'll get to those in just a minute. But one thing I wanted to kind of go into here. Remember last quarter CEO Brian Chesky was on a call with numerous references to Amazon in talking about this idea that what he expects is every year now, for the coming years, they'll launch one to two new businesses that will generate $1 billion or more of revenue incrementally each year. That theme really continued on this course call as well. More references to Amazon, more references to building out this app to be something that people use as more of a destination, no pun intended. The point that he was making was you people might use Airbnb once or twice or three times a year to book a place and then go travel. He wants to make this something that people are going to on a much more regular cadence. We'll see them investing 200 million to $250 million this year alone in trying to bring new tailored experiences to the platform. Things like tours, classes, workshops and whatnot. Getting to the numbers. Revenue was up 12%. $2.5 billion. It was driven by increase in nights stayed. There's $466 million in operating cash flow for the quarter. Very capital light. So they bring most all of that down to the free cash flow line. GROSS Booking value $17.6 billion. That was up 15%. Nights and experiences of $111 million up 12%. Strong performance in geographies including Latin America and Asia Pacific this time around. I just will say the one point of criticism I do have with this business because I do like it and I've recommended it, but they spent close to $10 billion in share repurchases over the last three years alone and it's really not making much of a dent on that share count. Outstanding. So maybe they could get a little bit better with that one. But we'll take what we can get for now.
Dylan Lewis
I'm glad you're bringing up some investor concerns. It can't be all good things, Jason.
Jason Moser
All right.
Dylan Lewis
Coming up after the break, we've got a west coast coffee chain hitting fresh all time highs. Stay right here. You're listening to Mouthful Money.
Allison Southwick
Today's show is brought to you by the Range Rover Sport. Visceral, dramatic, uncompromising. So what makes a leader? It's a tough question, but one thing's for sure, a true leader leads by example. And a true leader takes risks too. They plunge into life with determination. For those who lead by example and who approach life with a palpable passion, there's the Range Rover Sport. The Range Rover Sport offers focused on road performance and world renowned off road capability. Its adaptive off road cruise control monitors ground conditions and acclimates to the present terrain. Adaptive dynamics reduce unwanted body movements to deliver smooth and composed handling. Each model offers a dynamic sophisticated take on sporting luxury. Refinement meets visceral power in the Range Rover Sport, a new dimension of sporting luxury where a well appointed cabin brings a sense of occasion to every drive. Rise to to every occasion and elevate your desires by exploring the Range Rover Sport@Land RoverUSA.com.
Dylan Lewis
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Dylan Lewis here on air with fool analysts Emily Flippen and Jason Moser. And we're running through earnings updates for some of the stocks our team follows most closely. We're going to pick up with a jolt of caffeine and a 25% post earnings pop for coffee chain Dutch Bros. Emily, this is one that West Coasters know. Well, if you're in the northeast, maybe you're not as familiar with it. Give people a little intro here.
Harley Finkelstein
Yeah.
Robert Brokamp
Dutch Bros. I mean look, if you live on the east coast, then you're probably scratching your head and saying wait, we're not talking about Dunkin Donuts. What's going on here? And Dutch Bros. Is your kind of like drive through coffee chain if you use the words coffee loosely. Because while they do sell Coffee esque beverages. They also sell a lot of smoothies and energy drinks. And they posted an astounding 35% sales growth in the fourth quarter. A lot of that is just driven by the expansion in shops. East Coasters, they're coming for you, especially expanding into areas like Florida. And more importantly they're doing so profitably adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was up more than 40%. So they're really reaching scale and expanding even including this new shop growth. But here's the kicker for me. Management has consistently guided for same store sales growth and around that low single digit range, meaning the stores that have been open for more than 15 months, they're doing low single digit growth in terms of in comparison to how they did the year prior. But in this quarter they posted astounding same store sales growth for company owned stores, nearly 10%. So a lot better than what management had been previously guiding for. And they chalked that up to the expansion of the mobile order rollout which is now up to nearly 100% of their company owned stores. So a lot of success here. As part of their expansion. They just opened up their 1000th shop. They have a pretty small footprint so they're expanding extremely rapidly. I mean they're coming for blood. Starbucks.
Dylan Lewis
Emily I will say I'm a northeasterner through and through. I grew up in New Jersey, went to school in Boston. I live in dc. That's as far south and as far west as I've ever made it. I went to Dutch Bros for the first time over Christmas. I was in California visiting family and the coffee was great. The experience, I waited like 20 minutes for my coffee. It offended every New York, New Jersey sensibility that I have. Is did I go to a bad store or is that just the vibe for this chain?
Robert Brokamp
Unfortunately it actually is part of the experience. It's part of the vibe while they're trying to move people through faster. Talking to what they call the broistas, right, which are the people who are taking your order. They try to strike up a conversation with you. They try to have that friendly nature and part of the experience and make it part part of your daily experience when you come in and you develop a relationship with your local Dutch Bros. So the long lines are kind of standard, especially for the new stores now as they expand because fortressing is part of their strategy. That means when they enter a new geography, they're building out a ton of stores as they expand, hopefully those lines come down a little bit, especially as the stores mature, which could explain Some of that management expectation for low single digit growth. Right. In terms of same store sales growth, people kind of churn out of the ecosystem eventually. But those long lines, that experience, that's all part of the Dutch Bros. Pitch here.
Jason Moser
All right.
Dylan Lewis
We also saw earnings this week from longtime Pool stock Shopify. And we were lucky enough to have Shopify president Harley Finkelstein on Tuesday's Motley Fool Money episode. Jason, he called what they posted here peak performance for this earnings report.
Emily Flippen
I felt pretty good about it, Dylan. I mean, how did you feel about it?
Dylan Lewis
I thought it was pretty darn strong. As a shareholder, I was happy to see what they put out there.
Emily Flippen
Yeah, I'm right there with you. I think the growth story here remains intact, to be sure. We saw for the year North American revenue was up 23% with the US crossing $5.7 billion in revenue, which is more than the entire company's revenue in 2022. They also saw two consecutive years of international growth exceeding 30%. That's nice. The quarter itself, another good quarter. It was their seventh consecutive quarter of 25% or greater revenue growth when you exclude the logistics business that they got rid of a couple of years ago. Revenue of $2.8 billion was up 31% from a year ago. That was driven by strong performance in North America. They also saw gross merchandise volume of $94.4 billion in the quarter. They saw that growth accelerate each quarter this year, ultimately achieving a 24% year over year increase in 2024. There a very strong gross merchandise volume. I think that is in large part thanks to the 875 million unique online shoppers that they saw in 2024 and 200 million plus Shop Pay users. Shop Pay represented 38% of gross payment volume versus 33% a year ago. So it is catching on encouragingly. It's great to see that the business continues to scale. You go back to quarter four of 2022. Operating expenses were 52% of revenues. They went down to 36% in the quarter following in 2023. But if you look at Q4 of this year, it's now down to 32%. That really is an encouraging part of the story, I think and a good reason investors should hang on to this one for a little while to come.
Dylan Lewis
Bringing us home here for our earnings. Look, Upstart shares up over 20% after reporting they are now up over 200% in the past year. Emily, this was a company that was a growth stock then. It was not a growth stock. Is upstart back.
Robert Brokamp
Yeah, I mean, let's blame interest rates here, right? I mean, it's really hard to be a growth stock when you're underwriting loans in a high interest rate environment. So as interest rates have stabilized, there's clearly a lot of factors that have been working at upstart's favor here. And the fourth quarter was definitely showing that they secured a lot of partnerships and with more funding partners, they had access to more borrowers. And we saw that as underwriting activity picked up and they had higher deal flow, they had a higher conversion conversion rates of around 19%. That's a dramatic improvement from around 12% last quarter that saw loan origination rates up 68% year over year. And a lot of this is driven by the macro. But of course this is a lot of platform improvements as well. And this success meant that for the first time in nearly three years, upstart came with this in a hair of gap profitability. So I mean, if you like this business and you're okay with the risk that comes with with underwriting loans at a breakneck pace, all of this is great signs for upstart and great signs for upstart investors. But I will say, you know, this does come with downside risk. A lot of these loans weren't able to flow through off of their sheets to their funding partners. A lot of this came through through their co investing accounts where they do take on some of the downside risk should these loan losses be higher than expected. So if you are up expecting upstart to be a platform and not a bank, then I think you need to readjust your expectations here because this success does come with a higher level of risk.
Dylan Lewis
If we see the rate picture change, I imagine that will be something that will be good for upstart if we see rates come down. One thing that I kind of saw as an opportunity for them, they started talking about a little bit more this quarter was auto and home equity line of credit businesses. The reason I think it's interesting is they highlighted that the auto loan market is so much bigger than the personal loan market and that there's a lot of opportunity there. It's a small part of the business right now, but. But how are you thinking about what's in front of them there as a market?
Robert Brokamp
The amount of partners they can pull in through the auto loan side is also so much higher than the personal loan side as well. And their ability to pull through funding is just much higher there. So the opportunity is great. But of course again, the risk there for investors is also great as well. That is a lot easier to secure that during different interest rate environments because the purchasing for auto loans different than the purchasing need for personal loans. So that alongside the home equity line, great opportunities for growth for them. But to your point, we don't know if interest rates are realistically going to come down over the course of the next year. I'm not holding my breath that that's going to happen given the opportunity for tariffs or other things to impact the rate of inflation. So I think it's great signs, but it's not something that I'm being overly enthusiastic for for upstart investors over the course of 2025.
Dylan Lewis
So it's always been a growth stock. It's just been the macro picture. Emily.
Robert Brokamp
That's what my argument is. But again, you know, take the five plus year approach here. Don't hold your breath.
Dylan Lewis
All right, Emily, Jason, we'll see you guys a little bit later in the show. Up next, this Valentine's Day weekend is the perfect time to get on the same page with your partner about money. That's next. This is Motley Fool Money. Stay with us.
Emily Flippen
Get up, stand up, stand up for your right get up, stand up, stand up stand up for your right get up, stand up, stand up for your right.
Dylan Lewis
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Dylan Lewis, and it is Valentine's Day. And while money can't buy you love, getting on the same page with your partner about money can help you stay in love. This week, our Answers crew, Allison Southwick and Robert Brokamp broke down how to talk to your spouse about money and why money issues might really be the symptom of other problems in a relationship.
Harley Finkelstein
Make this a Valentine's Day to remember. Picture it. You're at a fancy restaurant. There's a string quartet playing in the corner. A server in tails pours you and your partner a glass from the third least expensive bottle of wine on the list. As you gaze across the table at each other lovingly, the candlelight flickers in your eyes. You've thought of every detail, and now is the moment you reach for their hand and whisper the words you know you should say more often. Babe, we need to talk about required minimum distributions. Wait, what? Yes. This Valentine's Day, the most romantic thing you can do with your partner is to talk about money. Or as bro likes to make it weird and call it make financial whoopee.
Jason Moser
Yeah, several years ago, I got a graduate certificate in financial therapy from Kansas State, and boy, did I read a Lot about sort of the nexus of love and money. And one thing I read was a study called Revisiting Financial Issues and Marriage by Jeffrey Du at Utah State University. Sort of an overview of the many studies that looked at finance and romance and here are a few key excerpts. First off, one study found that sound financial management behaviors, things like budgeting, saving, maintaining insurance, were positively associated with relationship happiness even after controlling for the participants financial well being. Another study of long term couples who felt that they had great marriages. The couple said that having little to no debt and living within their means contributed to their successful and happy marriages. Another study confirmed something we probably all know and that is the frequency of financial arguments was linked to the likelihood of future divorce. In fact, it's been found in multiple studies. But one found that disagreement over finances on almost a daily basis predicted the increase of divorce by 60%, 69% over those who never fought about money. And then finally, one study found that having shared financial goals and values predicted relationship satisfaction even better than the couple's reports of good communication. And here's the money quote, so to speak, from Dr. Du quote. These studies suggest that spouses need to jointly determine their financial goals and the means through which they will meet these goals.
Harley Finkelstein
We could call it a financial summit or a financial State of the Union address, but that makes it sound pretty cold and calculated, whereas money is anything but. That's because when we think about talking about money with our partners, we're also talking about our personal history, possible trauma and a heap of other emotions that get wrapped up in money.
Jason Moser
Yeah, as any psychologist will tell you, arguments about money usually are not really about money, but really about other things. They often are what money represent. Things like control, status, self worth, fairness, security, anxiety. Right. So for example, one study found that if spouses argue about whether to combine their finances, they may actually be arguing about issues related to trust or autonomy. You know, what money represents to each of us can be traced back to how we were raised, experiences we had when we were growing up. And these so called meanings of money can cause issues between couples because they're often subconscious, right? Yet they do guide our attitudes and behaviors and they're often not aligned with those of our partners. And in fact, one study found that when it comes to money, opposites attract. The study is entitled Fatal Fiscal Spendthrifts and Tight Wads in Marriage and one of the co authors, Scott Rick turned this into a whole book. According to the study, people are more likely to marry someone with different attitudes when it comes to spending, which actually could have benefits. My wife has occasionally pushed me to spend more than I normally would on things like vacations, and I'm grateful she did. But as you might expect, the evidence shows that spouses with big differences in spending habits are more likely to argue and less likely to be happy.
Harley Finkelstein
Now, if you're a longtime listener of the show, you know what's coming next. Say it with us. It's time to play the Fully Wed game.
Jason Moser
Yes. Anyways, it's a play on the old Newlywed Game, which started, I think, in the 1960s, lasted for decades. The fully lit game was first created in the early 2000s. It's still available on fool.com and you'll find other versions of it out there on the Internet. Here's how it works. Each partner answers 10 money related questions individually and then the couple gets together to compare their answers. And it could also be interesting to try to predict what your partner's responses will be to the questions to see how well you know about her or his attitudes about Money.
Harley Finkelstein
All right, 10 questions, and we won't cover them all here, but bro, what are some of your favorites?
Jason Moser
Well, the first question is what would your partner say is the annual income your family would need to be happy? And I like this because it starts a conversation about what happiness means to your marriage, to your family and to what extent money is needed for that happiness. And if you're not at that income level, then it establishes a financial goal and then you can strategize about reaching it. But it might also begin a conversation about ways you're currently spending money that actually don't bring much happiness, which means you could then use that money to invest more if you want, or if appropriate, downshift your career and enjoy your life and family a little bit more. I also like question number four, and that is how much would your bank account have to sink to before you panicked? And this gets the thinking ahead of the time about how much you'll need to have in an emergency fund so that you'll you'll be okay if you have unexpected big ticket expenses or a loss of income. And it can also get you thinking about what expenses you'd be willing to eliminate in an emergency. And it's important for you both to be on the same page about that. And then the other question I like is just how much is too much to spend without consulting your partner? And this is just good to know ahead of time in order to prevent any future surprises or arguments.
Harley Finkelstein
Now, bro, you mentioned the fully Wet game. It's been around for quite a while, so there have been a few iterations with a few different questions. So the one that you stumble upon may be a little bit different than the questions we're saying here. One of my favorites is question number six. My biggest financial concern is blank. I think my spouse's biggest financial concern is blank. I love this one because it forces you to really think about your own short and long term goals and whether or not you and your partner are aligned. If your biggest concern is credit card debt, but your partner is more worried about their crypto wallet and the latest meme coin, well, this might reveal that you two are not quite on the same page and that this is one of many more fun conversations you're going to be having. All right, so 10 questions, but there's also some ground rules in the fully wit game. The ground rules are perhaps even more important because they are good rules for any financial chat you're going to be having with your partner in the future.
Jason Moser
Yeah, we listed 10 tips for playing the fully wood game in the original article and I'll just highlight a couple of them and one of them was Accept equal responsibility for changing your lives around when it comes to money and matrimony, there will be some, shall we say, just inequities. One person will likely be earning more money than the other. One person may be doing more work elsewhere, and frankly, one person may just have a history of making better financial decisions. But instead of focusing on those differences or the past or what your partner is going to do, focus on what you can do to improve the situation and recognize that both of you have a responsibility to improve it. The other one I'll highlight is just don't play the blame game. No fair bringing up outside issues that have nothing to do with money. Don't attack your partner's views and don't bring up mistakes from years ago. Let them go. And keep in mind that you can play the blame game with your tone and voice and posture as well. So watch out for those sort of silent accusations as well as maybe the louder ones.
Harley Finkelstein
Bro, if you were to update the fully wed game today, are there any changes you would make or additions?
Jason Moser
Yeah, I think I would include a question about sort of the financial logistics of managing money as a couple, right? Who's going to pay the bills? Who handles the investments? Who's going to find a lawyer if you need to get an estate plan and make sure that both people are happy with their respective jobs. And then once you've decided who does what how are you going to keep the other spouse informed so that you're both in the loop, but also so that the other person can take over in case the other person gets busy sick, something worse, but for some reason they can't do the job.
Harley Finkelstein
All right, bro, what is your parting advice for? Your words, not mine. Making financial whoopee.
Jason Moser
I got that from the original Newlywed Game, by the way.
Harley Finkelstein
I know, just making.
Jason Moser
Anyways, find some of those old episodes on YouTube. You will have a big laugh. All right, final words here. And I'm just going to quote one of my friends, dads who said marriage is one big fat compromise. You have to accept that you won't always get your way, even if you're convinced it's the right way. If it helps build in some financial independence into your marriage, it could be that you each have a certain amount that you can spend however you see fit without the other partner's permission. And if it helps, it might even be better to have that in a separate bank account. Or if one person has a much higher risk tolerance when it comes to investing, perhaps most of the couple's assets are invested in a more moderate way, but the more aggressive spouse has a little side brokerage account in which they can invest however they see fit. And finally, if you've really come to an impasse, get professional help. For some financial issues, there are strategies, beliefs, attitudes, moves you can make that are more right than others. You may be arguing about how much credit card debt is too much or how big your emergency fund should be, how much you should save for retirement, how much life insurance you need and seeing a fee. Only financial planner could bring in an expert, objective opinion to help settle any disagreements. And of course, if it really is going beyond money, you could see a financial therapist. It's a relatively new field. You can see if there are such therapists in your area by visiting the website of the Financial Therapy Association. And most experienced couples counselors likely have experience helping couples navigate financial disagreements. Hiring such professional help isn't going to be cheap, right? You're going to expect to pay 150 to $300 an hour or more. But if money issues are an ongo source of marital discord, paying for the professional help could be one of the best investments you'll ever make.
Dylan Lewis
Wise words from Robert Brockamp and Alison Southwick. Invest in your relationship, invest in your happiness, fools. Up next, Jason Moser and Emily Flippen join me again to talk about stocks on the radar this week. That's after the break. Stay Right here. You're listening to Motley Fool. Money.
Robert Brokamp
Down.
Emily Flippen
We was one, baby.
Dylan Lewis
As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about. And the Motley fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley fool editorial standards is not approved by advertisers. Motley fool only picks products it'd personally recommend to friends like you. I'm Dylan Lewis, joined again by fool analysts Emily Flippen and Jason Moser. And we're here taping on Valentine's Day. And I'm curious, Fools, have you been scheming up something special for Valentine's Day? Jason, is there a special date tonight?
Emily Flippen
There is. I mean, we're dealing with the old empty nest thing now, Dylan. So the girls are off to college. And so my wife and I thought it would be just a great opportunity to make a reservation and go grab some dinner tonight in Clifton. So when she gets home from work, we will make our way on over there for a nice, quiet, delightful evening.
Dylan Lewis
Emily, do you have reservations to.
Robert Brokamp
Oh, similar plans. No reservations. Just going to a local place for dinner. I like a low key one. But I'll tell you what, I am looking forward to watching the next episode of Severance. I am more excited for that than I am for dinner.
Jason Moser
Don't.
Robert Brokamp
Don't tell my partner.
Dylan Lewis
I think we're going to be doing the same thing. We might order in and watch Severance, but I think that's in the cards for us as well. Some folks might be giving gifts this Valentine's Day. If you're not, you're not alone. Emily, we have a survey out from Trustpilot saying that 77% of people say they'd rather put money towards a major financial goal, such as a home down payment, rather than spend it on gifts.
Robert Brokamp
Yeah, I love this survey because it's framed up. You're not reading the second part of this sentence, Dylan, because that survey then goes on to say that in addition, Almost a full third, 30%, say they'd rather get nothing for Valentine's Day and have their partner save money. So, you know, I too, also want it both ways. I want my partner to get me everything for Valentine's Day and also save their money. So, you know, I think, think this is a great example of the psyche of the American consumer where we want to save money, but we also want our partner to, you know, buy us stuff at the same time.
Dylan Lewis
The duality of human right is what we give and what we get can be very different. I think one of the things that also jumped out to me bringing that survey up is, you know, we see a lot of the sensitivity around price showing up in the intended gift amounts. Jason. We see, you know, a more price sensitive shop. We've generally seen that with retailers seeing that as people are starting to process gift giving outside of the traditional holiday season. Yeah.
Emily Flippen
And it makes a lot of sense, too. And it feels like we just got through this holiday season and now we're getting that Valentine's and you got to buy more stuff and then you got Easter. It's almost like it never ends. Dylan, I'm not the biggest stuff guy in the world. I would rather have shares of stock as opposed to things. But it just is what it is, I guess, as they say.
Robert Brokamp
Well, if you're listening, Mrs. Moser, you know what to get them.
Emily Flippen
Exactly.
Dylan Lewis
I can't wait to see what you got me for President's Day. Jason. I'm really looking forward to it.
Emily Flippen
It feels like we're right about there, doesn't it? It feels like we're right about there.
Dylan Lewis
Well, lucky for our listeners, we do have a gift for them. This week I asked each of you to come up with your company Valentine's and that's a love letter to one of your favorite stocks. Jason, who are you admiring this year?
Emily Flippen
Well, I'm admiring this is going to come as a surprise, I'm sure. Chipotle. Chipotle Mexican Grill just had me a delightful dinner from there the other night and I'm going to go ahead and get out in front of this one. Dylan and Emily, this is a Gemini assisted love letter. So I went the AI route here to try to be as cheesy as I possibly could. So here we go. My dearest Chipotle, from the moment I first tasted your perfectly seasoned barbacoa nestled in a warm flour tortilla, I knew we had something special. You're more than just a stock to me. You're a consistent source of joy and delicious customizable meals. I admire your innovative spirit and your dedication to fresh ingredients. Every time I see your ticker symbol, my heart and stomach flutters. I'm in it for the long haul, my love. Here's to a future filled with gains and guac. Forever yours, Jason.
Dylan Lewis
That is fantastic. That is the kind of thing that's going to make Brian Niccol regret jumping over to Starbucks. Jason.
Emily Flippen
I mean, this thing is just responsible for thousands of percent of gains in my portfolio. I had to do it right And.
Robert Brokamp
I have to say, this is great timing because I got a notification on my phone right before the show began from grubhub saying, you know what Chipotle's doing today for Valentine's Day? A Bogo offer if you spend $20 or more. So you know what? Chipotle's sending that love right back to you, Jason.
Emily Flippen
Jason in atl.
Dylan Lewis
Emily, Jason just set a pretty high bar for his love letter. What are you bringing for your Valerie?
Robert Brokamp
My love letter. It's a little bit more practical. Let me put it this way. I didn't get any AI assist here, but I will say in life, I'm sure we've all heard it, there's this thing called compassionate versus passionate love, right? And I'm sure a lot of our listeners right now are probably looking at maybe the nvidias of the world. And that's passionate love, right? Passionate love is sudden. You're looking at the best performers in your portfolio. You're saying, I love you. I love you so much. It's the love that just takes off. It burns like a. But then it goes away suddenly. And then all of a sudden, you're out of it. Something bad happens, you stumble. Compassionate love, it grows through time. You have the ups, you have the downs. You've been through it all, but you're still there at the end. And it's kind of like stocks, right? You can't just love a stock when it goes up. You have to love it when it goes down, too. And, you know, I'll tell you what little limit is my compassionate love here. We've been through a lot of up and down together, and it just seems that that relationship has gotten stronger over time. It was the first recommendation that, you know, I was kind of partially, mostly responsible for when I joined the stock Advisor team. So it has a special place in my heart. And I'm also wearing a full Lululemon outfit tonight when I go out to dinner. I swear it looks nicer than what you're probably imagining. Shows you the breadth of what Lululemon is. But, yeah, that's my. That's my little love letter this Valentine's Day.
Dylan Lewis
You know, Emily, I like that because to. To borrow a phrase, if you don't like me when I'm down 20%, you don't deserve me when I'm a five bagger or a six bagger, right?
Robert Brokamp
Love it. Love it.
Dylan Lewis
All right, let's get over to stocks. On our radar for the week. We have Dan back behind the glass after some time away. Welcoming a new member to his family. Dan is going to hit you with a question after you pitch your radar stock. Jason, you're up first. What are you looking at this week?
Emily Flippen
Well, Dan, I can't believe we've made it this far. My dogs haven't completely ruined the show, but I'm going with Zoetis ticker is ZTS. And Zoetis spun off from Pfizer back in 2013, but a fun fact. The company was actually founded in 1952, but Zoetis is responsible for the discovery, the development, manufacturing, commercialization of animal health medicines and vaccines from the pet side all the way over to the livestock side and everywhere in between. They reported earnings on Thursday. Revenue was up 5% with earnings per share up 13%. I think the market was a little downtrodden on the guidance there. Just an anemic 2% to 4% revenue growth fare in estimating earnings per share for the year. It did $6.05 at the midpoint. That puts the stock Today at around 26 times those full year estimates. But this is a company, it's boring business. Yield of 1.2%. It's grown that dividend every year since the spinoff. They do really important work and it fits nicely in the context of a retirement portfolio where you're letting time do the heavy lifting.
Dylan Lewis
Dan, a question about Zoetis Ticker. Zts.
Jason Moser
I've been gone for a while, Dylan.
Dylan Lewis
But looks like Jason is still talking drug companies.
Jason Moser
What do you know? How the world turns.
Dylan Lewis
More of a comment to kick things off. Emily, what's on your radar this week?
Robert Brokamp
What's on my radar is Aon. The ticker is aaon. They are a maker of commercial custom H vac systems. And Dan, stop rolling your eyes. I promise this is way more fun than Zoetis. This is kind of a sleepy business, but it's been growing a lot recently because they made an acquisition of a company called Basics which gets them into the data center market. So imagine any commercial business that has has unusually sized spaces that needs precision temperature or humidity control. Manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, data centers. That's your business. For Aon. They're growing at a breakneck pace. Massive market opportunity. A small player in a growing industry, incredibly profitable, with a really unique, really experienced management team. One that I think a lot of investors sleep on.
Dylan Lewis
Dan, a question about Aon Ticker. Get this. A A O. Incredible. Dylan, you know what else is incredible is the founder's name, Norman H as Bjornson.
Jason Moser
Just a fantastic top tier founder name.
Dylan Lewis
Emily's here with the slow and steady that's what she's looking for. She wants the consistency. She wants someone who's going to be there for her. Dan, will you be adding that to your watch list this week? I think I will, actually. H Vac isn't going anywhere. You go, Emily. Jason, thanks for being here. Bringing your. Your stocks. That's going to do it for this week's Spotlightful Money Radio show show is mixed by Dan Boyd. I'm Dylan Lewis. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next.
Motley Fool Money Podcast Summary
Episode: "Valentines Day: Love, Money, and Stocks"
Release Date: February 14, 2025
Hosted by Dylan Lewis, Ricky Mulvey, and Mary Long, this Valentine's Day edition of Motley Fool Money intertwines financial insights with relationship advice, delivering a comprehensive analysis of recent earnings reports and offering guidance on navigating money conversations with partners.
The episode kicks off with a focus on significant earnings reports from major companies, including The Trade Desk, Roku, Airbnb, Dutch Bros., Shopify, and Upstart. The hosts delve into market reactions, company performance, and future outlooks. Transitioning from financial discussions, the podcast seamlessly integrates Valentine's Day themes, providing listeners with strategies to discuss money matters with their partners effectively.
Timestamp: [00:50 - 03:30]
Overview: The Trade Desk experienced a notable decline in stock value despite stable advertising revenues.
Emily Flippen's Insight:
"This is a company I've owned for many years and will gladly continue hanging onto... revenue was up 26%. They saw margin expansion. Adjusted earnings per share up 43%."
[01:14]
Market Reaction: The company's stock dipped by 30% following earnings, attributed to missed internal benchmarks for the first time in 33 quarters and underwhelming revenue growth guidance.
Dylan Lewis's Comparison: The CEO likened the company to a "championship team" despite internal execution issues, drawing a parallel to the Kansas City Chiefs' Super Bowl performance.
"Are they still one of the favorites the Super Bowl next year?"
[02:58]
Timestamp: [05:12 - 07:09]
Performance Fluctuations: Roku reported a stellar third quarter but guided disappointingly for the fourth, leading to a double-digit stock share drop.
Robert Brokamp's Analysis:
"The fourth quarter itself was great... They did $78 million in adjusted EBITDA, better than previously guiding."
[05:21]
Strategic Shifts: Roku is moving away from reporting metrics like streaming households and ARPU as it focuses on profitability in key markets like the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
"They lose money on the devices they sell for the sole purpose of expanding household usage."
[06:41]
Timestamp: [07:09 - 10:03]
Strong Earnings: Airbnb's shares surged by 15% post-earnings, reflecting positive market reception.
Emily Flippen's Breakdown:
"Revenue was up 12%... strong operating cash flow... Gross Booking value up 15%."
[08:16]
Growth Initiatives: Despite substantial share repurchases totaling nearly $10 billion over three years, there's criticism over the limited impact on reducing outstanding shares.
"Maybe they could get a little bit better with that one."
[09:55]
Timestamp: [11:29 - 15:28]
Expanding Footprint: Dutch Bros. saw a 35% sales growth in the fourth quarter, driven by profitable store expansions, particularly in the Northeast and Florida.
Operational Highlights:
"Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was up more than 40%... same store sales growth nearly 10%."
[12:35]
Consumer Experience: The brand emphasizes a unique customer experience with long lines and friendly interactions, contributing to its rapid growth.
"Long lines are kind of standard, especially for the new stores now as they expand."
[14:43]
Timestamp: [14:43 - 19:48]
Earnings Success: Shopify reported its seventh consecutive quarter with over 25% revenue growth, excluding its logistics division.
Key Metrics:
"North American revenue up 23%... gross merchandise volume up 24% year-over-year."
[15:05]
Operational Efficiency: Operating expenses decreased from 52% of revenues to 32%, signaling improved cost management.
"Operating expenses were 52% of revenues... down to 32%."
[16:45]
Timestamp: [16:45 - 19:48]
Stock Surge: Upstart's shares rose over 20%, adding to its impressive 200% gain in the past year.
Growth Drivers: Stabilizing interest rates and increased loan origination contributed to higher conversion rates and partnerships.
"Underwriting activity picked up and they had higher deal flow... conversion rates of around 19%."
[17:00]
Risks Highlighted: The company faces downside risks related to loan defaults and carries higher investment risks despite platform growth.
"This success does come with a higher level of risk."
[18:28]
Timestamp: [20:27 - 30:28]
Importance of Financial Dialogue:
"Spouses need to jointly determine their financial goals and the means through which they will meet these goals."
[22:55]
Psychological Insights: Money discussions often symbolize deeper issues like control, security, and self-worth.
"Arguments about money usually are not really about money, but really about other things."
[23:15]
Statistics Highlighted:
"Disagreement over finances on almost a daily basis predicted the increase of divorce by 60%, 69%."
[21:32]
Game Overview: Couples answer financial questions individually and compare responses to gauge mutual understanding and alignment.
"Each partner answers 10 money related questions... see how well you know about her or his attitudes about Money."
[24:28]
Sample Questions:
Ground Rules for Effective Conversations:
Professional Assistance: Encouragement to seek financial planners or financial therapists for persistent money-related issues.
"Paying for the professional help could be one of the best investments you'll ever make."
[28:46]
Timestamp: [34:01 - 37:08]
Jason Moser: Shares a heartfelt AI-generated love letter to Chipotle, emphasizing its consistent performance and personal significance.
"My dearest Chipotle... Here's to a future filled with gains and guac."
[34:19]
Robert Brokamp: Offers a practical love letter highlighting the distinction between passionate and compassionate love in stock investments, referencing Lululemon.
"If you don't like me when I'm down 20%, you don't deserve me when I'm a five bagger or a six bagger."
[35:21]
Timestamp: [37:15 - 31:15]
Emily Flippen: Zoetis (Ticker: ZTS)
Robert Brokamp: Aon (Ticker: AAON)
The episode masterfully blends financial analysis with personal relationship advice, underscoring the importance of aligning financial goals within partnerships. By reviewing key earnings reports and providing practical tools for couples, Motley Fool Money ensures listeners are equipped to handle both their investment portfolios and personal finances with confidence and understanding.
Stay tuned for more insights and strategies to enhance both your financial and personal well-being.