Motley Fool Money – "Weight Loss. Weight Loss. Don’t Tell Me."

Date: August 25, 2025
Host: Rick Menars
Guests/Analysts: Carl Thiel, Jason Hall

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the challenging summer for weight loss stocks, the search for resilient investments ahead of September’s market uncertainties, and a forward-looking discussion on potential disruptors for the next decade. The hosts analyze why promising weight management drugs are faltering as investments and spotlight overlooked or transformative companies that could weather or upend the market in years to come.

Key Discussion Points

1. Navigating September: Resilient Investment Picks (00:00–11:07)

Market Context:

• Investors head into September hopeful for a Fed rate cut but wary of stubborn inflation and economic fuzziness.
• The team shares companies they believe can outperform despite market headwinds.

Jason Hall: BBB Foods (Tiendas Tres B) – Ticker: TBBB (01:00)

• Business Model: Fast-growing operator of hard-discount grocery stores in Mexico, largely insulated from US monetary and trade policy.
• Financials: $400M cash, strong balance sheet, robust Mexican same-store sales growth (18%) plus new store openings (20% of last quarter’s 38% growth).
• Scale & Prospects: Now at about 3,000 stores, adding ~500 per year.

  “The business is essentially running it right at breakeven now. That’s a great change of pace for investors tired of high growth companies with big losses.” (Jason Hall, 02:25)

• Comparable Model: Reminiscent of Aldi's small-footprint, fast-turn inventory (03:30).

  “You don’t have to have giant margins to be profitable...If you’re constantly turning your inventory, you can still build a really high return, profitable business.” (Jason Hall, 03:45)

Carl Thiel: UnitedHealthcare (UNH) (04:51)

• Current Issues: DOJ criminal investigation, management turnover, forecasting missteps—shares recently hit five-year lows.
• Value Case: Big-name investors (Warren Buffett, Michael Burry) are buying in at a P/E under 19—“already a very depressed number.”
• Resilience: Largest US health insurer (covers 1 in 6 Americans), not existentially threatened by investigations.

  “While the DOJ investigation is serious...past cases of Medicare Advantage investigations like this have always been resolved civilly...I don’t think it’s an existential threat.” (Carl Thiel, 06:50)

• Risks: Still more shoes "could drop," but much bad news appears priced in.

Rick Menars: Trex (TREX) (08:26)

• Challenges: Decreased sales in first half, strong seasonality, housing market slowdown.
• Opportunity: Potential demand rebound if Fed eases, market share gains possible from competitor shakeups.

  “What if the strong possibility of Fed easing in September kicks off a new decade of strong growth. I’m going with Trex.” (Rick Menars, 09:39)

• Competitive Landscape: James Hardie’s acquisition of TimberTech could make Trex more compelling as a standalone.

2. Weight Loss Stocks: Why Investors Are Losing Pounds, Too (11:38–17:29)

The State of Weight Management Drugs (Carl Thiel, 12:05)

• Backdrop: Viking Therapeutics’ stock drops 35% after disappointing oral drug trial results. Market leaders Eli Lilly & Novo Nordisk also see major declines.
• Key Factors:
  • High expectations outpace reality.
  • GLP-1 drugs (Ozempic, Mounjaro, etc.) are “pretty great already and might be hard to improve upon.”
  • High discontinuation: 75% off drugs after two years, mostly due to side effects.
  • Oral drugs so far (including Viking’s candidate and Novo’s Rybelsis) feature more side effects than injectables, contrary to hype.

  “There is too much focus on these oral drugs right now. Subcutaneous injection is very easy and painless...most studies show that people who are on injections are actually pretty content to stay there.” (Carl Thiel, 13:13)

  • Real improvement will come only if side-effect profiles get better, not just alternative administration forms.

Church of the Big Trend vs. Reality (Jason Hall, 15:13)

• Historical Parallels: Drones, 3D printing, EVs—huge trends, disappointing for investors except in rare winners like Tesla.

  “The hard work of analyzing opportunities is tied to not just assuming a big multi-billion dollar trend is going to pad shareholders’ pockets.” (Jason Hall, 17:11)

• GLP-1 context: Despite recent declines, Novo Nordisk and Lilly’s shares are still way up over the past 6 years, showing that timing and durability matter in trend investing.

3. Hidden (and Future) Disruptors: Predictions for 2035 (18:09–22:48)

Setup: Sometimes the next disruptor emerges from unexpected corners or companies willing to disrupt themselves.

Carl Thiel: Familiar Machines in Magic (Home Health Robots) (18:28)

• Early-Stage Bet: Founded by iRobot’s Colin Angle; focus is on pragmatic, AI-driven companion robots for home health.
• Thesis: Rather than “do everything robots,” leveraging specific, useful tasks with existing AI and robotics tech could open the next disruptive wave.

  “I think there is disruption waiting to happen here and I think it might not come from do-everything robots.” (Carl Thiel, 19:38)

Rick Menars: Disney as a Timeless Disruptor (20:05)

• Track record: Disney has repeatedly initiated self-disruption—digital content, streaming, theme park innovation, ESPN’s recent OTT launch.
  • “Disney has never shied away from burning its own boats...it consistently raises the bar.”
• Future Vision: AI could amplify Disney’s content machine, unlocking new revenue streams while solidifying its IP dominance.

  “Content is king, and Disney is the Lion King of content. Right now, AI is seen...as a threat to content creators, but in the future, it will be a way to amplify strong IP and storytellers.” (Rick Menars, 20:47)

Jason Hall: Lennar & 3D-Printed Housing (21:19)

• Example: Lennar’s partnership with Icon to build 3D-printed homes—early projects showcase labor efficiencies and energy advantages.
• Disruptive Path: Big traditional players like Lennar could leverage emerging tech—like Apple and Microsoft have—to disrupt their own business models and meet future demand.

  “A decade from now, I think it’s going to be the big players...leveraging disruptive technologies like the 3D printing to improve their own business models to meet demand.” (Jason Hall, 21:58)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On margins and inventory turns:

  “You don’t have to have giant margins to be profitable...If you’re constantly turning your inventory, you can still build a really high return, profitable business.”
  – Jason Hall (03:45)

• On UnitedHealthcare’s resilience:

  “This just remains a really powerful company at the center of the healthcare system...it’s not going anywhere.”
  – Carl Thiel (05:55)

• On trend investing pitfalls:

  “The hard work of analyzing opportunities is tied to not just assuming a big multi-billion dollar trend is going to pad shareholders’ pockets.”
  – Jason Hall (17:11)

• On self-disruption:

  “Disney has never shied away from burning its own boats...it consistently raises the bar with theme park technology, rewriting its own playbook.”
  – Rick Menars (20:19)

Important Timestamps

• 01:00 – Jason Hall introduces BBB Foods as a resilient investment.
• 03:30 – Discussion about the scalability and profitability of the hard-discount grocery model.
• 04:51 – Carl Thiel recommends UnitedHealthcare despite ongoing challenges.
• 08:26 – Rick Menars lays out the contrarian case for Trex.
• 11:38 – Segment on the struggles (and misconceptions) with weight loss stocks and drug pipelines.
• 12:05 – Carl Thiel explains the reality of GLP-1 drugs and the market’s over-expectation.
• 15:13 – Jason Hall relates weight loss trends to past “big ideas” that flopped for investors.
• 18:09 – Introduction to “surprise disruptors” and long-term bets.
• 18:28 – Carl Thiel picks home health robots as a category to watch.
• 20:05 – Rick Menars repositions Disney as an AI/tech-content disruptor.
• 21:19 – Jason Hall discusses 3D-printed houses and Lennar’s potential for disruption.

Episode Tone & Takeaways

• Pragmatic, Witty, Analytical: The analysts blend humor and measured skepticism with deep dives on company and industry dynamics.
• Long-Term Focus: Despite short-term volatility, the advice leans toward finding enduring business models and not chasing the hottest trends blindly.
• Disruption Isn’t Always Profitable: They emphasize that not every big, new idea leads to big, new profits—savvy investors look beneath the surface.

Summary by Motley Fool Money. For educational and entertainment purposes—not investment advice.