Motley Fool Money — "What Can History Teach Us About Investing in 2025?"

Date: October 10, 2025
Host: Travis Hoyam
Analysts: John Quast and Jason Moser

Episode Overview

This episode examines the parallels between the current investing landscape in 2025—dominated by artificial intelligence (AI)—and past transformative moments in market history, such as the dot-com era (1999) and the emergence of mobile technology (2007). The analysts discuss bubbles, speculation, structural challenges, and the lessons investors can apply as new eras dawn. The latter part of the episode features a "market history quiz," insights on energy investment opportunities, and a spotlight on current stock ideas.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Where Are We in the Cycle? Parallels to Past Tech Booms

• AI in 2025 is seen as a similar inflection point to the Internet build-out in 1999 and mobile in 2007.
• Massive infrastructure investments, rapid speculation, and soaring valuations are common threads between previous bubbles and now.

Jason Moser:

"There are some similarities... mass infrastructure build out, foundation for a new era, and a lot of speculation in the markets. AI-first companies are getting 20-40% premium valuations over non-AI types. Some of the most speculative names are at 200x sales."
(01:26)

Key Insight:
While enthusiasm for AI is justified, there are visible parallels to past bubbles with unsustainable, nosebleed valuations—highlighting the importance of learning from history.

2. Are We in a Bubble?

• Jason references Orlando Bravo’s comment that, yes, a bubble exists when companies with $50 million annualized revenue are valued at $10 billion.
• Funding sources are more robust than in previous bubbles, with hyperscalers like Amazon, Alphabet, and Nvidia providing capital.
• Emerging "small red flags": Guaranteed revenue contracts, off-balance sheet entities, reminiscent of Enron's parallel structures, are visible in some deals (e.g., Nvidia and CoreWeave).

Travis Hoyam:

"There are these small red flags that you can look throughout history and go, okay, when you start to see this happen, you should perk up a little."
(03:52)

3. The Dangers of Complicated Financial Structures

• Complexity in financial markets (e.g., what led to the 2008 crisis) often hides risk.
• AI should be a "no-brainer," but convoluted revenue guarantees and contract webs around OpenAI raise concerns.

Travis:

"If AI is such a no-brainer...then why do we need all these complicated financial structures...it just raises red flags."
(07:38)

4. Lessons from Past Bubbles for Today’s Investors

• Jason: Avoid speculation; focus on quality businesses, not on getting caught up in the hype.
• John: The biggest lesson is simply to hold; buying and holding high-quality stocks for decades often beats trading.

Jason Moser:

"While it's tempting, steer clear of speculation...these were stretches when some great businesses went on sale. Stay focused on owning high-quality businesses."
(08:57)

John Quast:

"I wish I could just go back and say, hang on, don't try to get cute...just buy and hold."
(10:23)

Travis:

"The lessons I've learned...is not selling."
(12:16)

5. Energy: The Linchpin for AI's Future

• AI’s energy demands are astronomical, with OpenAI targeting 250 GW by 2033.
• US is adding 300 GW of nuclear by 2050, but timelines may not align with AI needs.
• Nuclear, natural gas, and hydro seen as critical for "firm energy."
• Longer-term, truly disruptive ideas like data centers in space could emerge.

John Quast:

"We're going to have a heyday for nuclear, but even if we do, it's still not going to be enough."
(15:10)

Jason Moser:

"For AI specifically...I think the overwhelming demand is going to be on those reliable, firm energy sources..."
(16:26)

Jason (on data centers in space):

"...solves two key problems: limitless solar and cooling. Not pie in the sky, I think that's actually pretty legit."
(17:32)

• Providers beyond energy generation—such as Itron (infrastructure monitoring)—could also benefit.

6. Electricity Prices and Consumer Backlash

• Rising energy costs due to AI may lead to regulatory scrutiny and social tension.

Jason:

"Consumers will not like it, I can guarantee you that...if we see things going beyond typical seasonality, that's going to be a real problem."
(18:47)

7. Market History Quiz — Learning from the Past (21:18-33:02)

A spirited, fact-laden quiz highlights moments like Black Monday, the dot-com bubble, telecom infrastructure investment, and notable IPOs (e.g., Pets.com, AOL):

Black Monday Crash

• Oct 19, 1987, Dow fell 22.6%
• The Dow, not the S&P, got all the coverage then; its price weighting led to odd index behavior.

Most Valuable Company Jan 1, 2000:

• Microsoft (not Cisco)

Pets.com Trivia:

• IPO: Feb 2000; Peak Market Cap: $400M.

AOL’s Peak:

• 25M subscribers at its height; dial-up discontinued only last week.

Telecom Build-out:

• $118B invested in 2000.

NASDAQ 100 QQQ in 2000:

• Up 18% (Jan–Mar), then down 71% over six months:
  "Up an escalator, out a window." (33:10)

Lesson:
Patience often beats bold market timing; knowing when an industry hits maturity is crucial.

8. Current AI Competition — Google vs OpenAI

• Google’s Gemini Enterprise announcement marks the next phase in the AI arms race, highlighting the advantage of established business models and distribution.

Jason:

"This is kind of an arms race... Google...has massive user base and a powerful business model."
(35:17)

• OpenAI’s challenge: Only ~20M of its 800M weekly users are subscribers; Google is already profitable in AI/Cloud.

Jason:

"At some point OpenAI is going to have to resort to an ad-supported model or find a way to grow that subscriber number."
(37:03)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "You can't have companies with $50 million in revenue valued at $10 billion. That just doesn't work."
  — Jason Moser, echoing Orlando Bravo (02:32)
• "If AI is such a no-brainer, and it's such a high return...then why do we need all these complicated financial structures?"
  — Travis Hoyam (07:38)
• "Twenty years is a heartbeat...Just buy and hold."
  — John Quast (10:46)
• "Up an escalator, out a window."
  — Travis Hoyam, on market crashes (33:10)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------|-------------| | AI Hype vs Market History | 00:40–05:27 | | Speculation and SPACs | 05:27–07:38 | | Lessons from Past Bubbles | 08:57–12:16 | | AI & Energy: Nuclear and Beyond | 13:43–18:30 | | Rising Electricity Prices | 18:30–19:01 | | Market History Quiz | 21:18–33:10 | | Google Gemini's AI Ambitions | 35:17–38:00 | | Stocks on Our Radar | 38:10–41:10 |

Analyst Stock Picks

• John Quast:
  Rubrik (RBRK) — Cybersecurity company, focused on post-attack recovery. "Innovate or cease to be a business" mentality, solid revenue growth, positive free cash flow, more room to grow.
  (38:10)

• Jason Moser:
  Waste Management (WM) — Dominant landfill and recycling operator, stability from the essential nature of its service, growing business segments (recycling, energy, healthcare solutions), acquired Stericycle. "Your trash is my treasure."
  (39:59)

Takeaways for Investors

• History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes:
  Today’s AI build-out has eerie similarities to past tech bubbles—examine not just the upside, but the risks and funding/valuation structure.

• Speculation rarely pays off long-term:
  Focus on quality businesses, avoid the temptation to trade hype cycles.

• Patience wins:
  Past winners (McDonald’s, Marvel, Chipotle, even Microsoft) delivered for shareholders over decades—if only they held on!

• Energy is the critical investment opportunity behind AI:
  Reliable, "firm" energy sources like nuclear and natural gas are set for a boom, but enormous demand may still outstrip new supply for years.

• Financial structure and complexity signal risk:
  Whenever you see purposely complicated financial engineering, be wary—history is full of cautionary tales.

Closing Thoughts

The episode encourages a mix of inspiration and caution: while the potential of AI is transformative, investors should learn from history, be wary of bubbles and speculative frenzies, and focus on fundamentals—especially in supporting sectors like energy. And above all: patience and long-term thinking outpace market timing.

"Whether things repeat or not, they typically rhyme."
(33:11)

For more detailed market context and individual stock ideas, tune into the next episode or visit Motley Fool.