Motley Fool Money – Episode: Who Won Black Friday, Cyber Monday?
Release Date: December 3, 2024
Hosts: Dylan Lewis, Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long
Guests: Bill Mann, Dave Hatter

1. Introduction and Black Friday/Cyber Monday Overview

The episode kicks off with Ricky Mulvey engaging in light-hearted banter with guest Bill Mann about their personal experiences during Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Ricky shares his disappointment with retailers extending countdown deals, expressing diminishing trust in such promotional tactics.

Ricky Mulvey [00:18]: "I log on this morning and they're like, surprise, surprise, We've extended it another day. So I'm believing retailers a little less now."

Bill humorously admits to not personally celebrating the sales but acknowledges his family benefited from some deals.

2. Data Analysis: Sales Trends and In-Store Traffic

Ricky presents a "data salad," a mixture of compelling statistics related to Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM):

• Shopify reported $11.5 billion in sales during BFCM, a 24% increase from the previous year.
• Adobe found that online shoppers spent approximately 10% more.
• Sensor Matic Solutions revealed an 8% decrease in in-store shopper traffic compared to 2023.

Ricky Mulvey [01:35]: "Shopify getting more of a lion's share of those sales."

Bill interprets the data, highlighting the shift from physical to online shopping and its implications.

Bill Mann [03:22]: "A 24% rise at Shopify definitively comes at the cost of something else."

3. Retailers' Discount Strategies and Long-Term Implications

The conversation shifts to retailers employing steep discounts (50-70%) to attract customers, raising concerns about potential long-term ramifications.

Ricky draws parallels to J.C. Penney’s failed strategy under Ron Johnson, where heavy discounting conditioned shoppers to expect coupons, ultimately leading to a sales decline when coupons were removed.

Bill Mann [06:08]: "It failed simply because J.C. Penney had conditioned its shoppers just to wait for the coupon."

Ricky advises investors to scrutinize how companies discount, cautioning that seemingly irresistible deals might signal underlying business issues.

4. South Korea's Martial Law: Political Implications and Business Impact

A surprising turn in the episode covers South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yul declaring martial law to protect constitutional order and remove North Korea supporters. However, the move is swiftly reversed by unanimous legislative action, suggesting political instability rather than genuine security concerns.

Bill Mann [07:42]: "This has nothing to do with North Korea... it's the end stage of an incredibly unpopular politician making a desperate play to remain in power."

Impacts on Businesses:

• Samsung and Coupang experienced stock declines (~6% and 2% respectively) following the announcement.
• The South Korean won fell by 2%, reflecting economic uncertainty.

Bill Mann [09:42]: "Martial law... restrictions like bans on public gatherings or political activities don’t significantly impact companies like Coupang."

5. Company Life Cycles: Champs to Chumps – The Intel Example

Bill Mann delves into the concept of corporate life cycles, emphasizing that companies can rapidly transition from industry leaders ("champs") to struggling entities ("chumps"). He cites Intel's ongoing restructuring and challenges in adapting to the AI-driven market as a case study.

Bill Mann [12:23]: "Intel has not done a good job of [restructuring] so far."

Ricky underscores the importance of management in navigating such transitions, referencing General Electric's successful spinoffs as a positive example.

6. AT&T's Refocusing and Management Strategies

Shifting focus to AT&T, Ricky highlights the company's strategic divestments and renewed emphasis on fiber, internet, and 5G technologies, moving away from less profitable ventures like DirecTV.

Ricky Mulvey [16:11]: "AT&T is telling a story to investors that we are going to expand through fiber, Internet, and 5G... We're focused and we're going to return a lot of capital to shareholders."

Bill praises AT&T’s unemotional and strategic asset management, aligning with Stern Stewart’s economic value added principles.

Bill Mann [16:51]: "They're being very unemotional about them. They're not... saying these are assets that are no longer adding value to us."

7. Brief Promotions and Announcements

The episode includes a brief promotion for the Giving Done Right podcast, emphasizing effective charitable giving strategies.

Allison [18:23]: "Giving Done Right provides insight, inspiration and practical advice on how to make an impact with your giving."

8. Conversation with Dave Hatter: Big Data, Privacy, and AI

In the latter part of the episode, Ricky Mulvey converses with Dave Hatter, a cybersecurity consultant, on the intricate issues surrounding big data and privacy.

Key Topics Discussed:

• AI and Facial Recognition: Concerns over AI's ability to identify individuals from images, akin to TSA screening processes.

Ricky Mulvey [19:08]: "You can take a photo of someone's face and then you put it through an AI search engine... they're going to be able to identify that person."

• Protecting Personal Data: Strategies to limit digital footprints, such as utilizing Apple’s privacy tracking labels to assess app data collection.

Dave Hatter [19:57]: "The first step is just being aware that it may not necessarily be in your interest to sign up for every app you run across..."

• Self-Driving Cars: Dave expresses skepticism about the safety and reliability of autonomous vehicles, citing potential software bugs and hacking vulnerabilities.

Dave Hatter [24:17]: "The idea that I'm going to get in a car... and I'm going to trust that to make all the right decisions, I'm just not there."

• Optimism for Future Technology: Despite current challenges, Dave remains hopeful about advancements like drone delivery and robotics, provided privacy and security concerns are addressed.

Dave Hatter [25:03]: "I absolutely believe that... people are waking up. We'll eventually move to a place where this stuff will make a lot more sense and will be a lot better for the consumer than it is today."

Notable Quotes:

Dave Hatter [24:17]: "There's a great article I would recommend. Could be a great topic for a different day. The coming software apocalypse from the Atlantic."

Conclusion

The episode of Motley Fool Money weaves through a comprehensive analysis of Black Friday and Cyber Monday's impact on retail sales, explores the precarious balance retailers maintain with discount strategies, delves into unexpected geopolitical events in South Korea affecting major corporations, and examines the life cycles of prominent companies like Intel and AT&T. The discussion extends to critical insights on big data and AI's role in society, emphasizing the need for heightened privacy measures and cautious optimism towards technological advancements.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Ricky Mulvey [00:18]: "I log on this morning and they're like, surprise, surprise, We've extended it another day. So I'm believing retailers a little less now."

• Ricky Mulvey [01:35]: "Shopify getting more of a lion's share of those sales."

• Bill Mann [03:22]: "A 24% rise at Shopify definitively comes at the cost of something else."

• Bill Mann [06:08]: "It failed simply because J.C. Penney had conditioned its shoppers just to wait for the coupon."

• Bill Mann [07:42]: "This has nothing to do with North Korea... it's the end stage of an incredibly unpopular politician making a desperate play to remain in power."

• Bill Mann [12:23]: "Intel has not done a good job of [restructuring] so far."

• Ricky Mulvey [16:11]: "AT&T is telling a story to investors that we are going to expand through fiber, Internet, and 5G... We're focused and we're going to return a lot of capital to shareholders."

• Dave Hatter [19:57]: "The first step is just being aware that it may not necessarily be in your interest to sign up for every app you run across..."

• Dave Hatter [24:17]: "The idea that I'm going to get in a car... and I'm going to trust that to make all the right decisions, I'm just not there."

This detailed summary encapsulates the episode's key discussions, providing valuable insights for both avid listeners and newcomers keen on understanding the multifaceted topics covered by Motley Fool Money.