Podcast Summary: Motley Fool Money

Episode: Would You Buy the SpaceX IPO?
Date: December 15, 2025
Host: Tim Byers
Guests: Rick Munares & Carl Thiel

Overview

This episode explores the hot topic of a potential SpaceX IPO, its business fundamentals, and whether investors should be interested if the company goes public at a rumored $1.5 trillion valuation. Motley Fool analysts Tim Byers, Rick Munares, and Carl Thiel discuss the viability and risks of SpaceX, analyzing its business mix (notably Starlink), market disruptiveness, competition, and valuation concerns. The conversation pivots to managing investor mindset, handling FOMO stocks, and closes with a quick reflection on 2025’s market performance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. SpaceX as a Business: Beyond Rockets

[00:05 – 02:50]

• Elon Musk’s SpaceX: Known for attention-grabbing rocket launches, both successful and otherwise, but less known is the fact that about 70% of its revenue comes from Starlink—the satellite internet business.
  • Carl Thiel: "SpaceX is obviously closely associated with Elon Musk, certainly gets a lot of publicity for its rocket launches…About 70% of SpaceX's revenue comes from Starlink." [01:20]
• Starlink’s Scale: Starlink has rapidly grown to over 8 million subscribers worldwide, making SpaceX as much a global telecom company as an aerospace one.
  • Rick Munares: "Starlink is up to eight plus million subscribers now. It was just like a million just a few years ago…definitely a viable part of the story." [02:09]
• Diverse Optionality: SpaceX is not a “one-dimensional company,” it’s a fusion of launches, satellite internet, and ambitious visions like putting AI data centers in space or Mars colonization.
  • Rick Munares: “But it's not just this one dimensional company...it's a very wide varied company with a lot of optionality, surprisingly enough.” [02:45]

2. Business Economics & Comparisons

[02:50 – 05:52]

• Market Valuation Context: SpaceX’s rumored IPO valuation ($1.5T) would dwarf public comparables like Rocket Lab (RKLB, ~$30B).
• Business Segments:
  • Launches: Paid by NASA and others to lift satellites/other payloads.
  • Starlink: Consumer-facing internet business.
  • Starship: The giant, fully-reusable rocket that could radically lower payload costs.
• Game-Changing Cost Dynamics: Reusable rocket technology could reduce launch costs from $1,500/kg to under $100/kg—a staggering potential disruption.
  • Tim Byers: "If you have a reusable rocket…they believe they could get that down to less than a hundred dollars per kilogram. That's insane. That's some serious economic power here." [04:05]

3. Is SpaceX a Rule Breaker, or Overhyped?

[05:17 – 11:41]

• Rule Breaker Credentials:
  • Starship’s reusability and capacity could change the economics of space and telecom.
    • Carl Thiel: "The idea of a reusable rocket is a massively rule breaking idea. It’s obviously disrupted its industry." [06:48]
  • Yet, much hangs on Starship’s success—it’s not fully operational yet.
    • Carl Thiel: "Starship needs to work…Starship is supposed to be entirely reusable. And if that happens, it's a game changer." [07:13]
• Valuation Worries:
  • Current revenue estimates ($15.5B in 2025; $22–23B in 2026), meaning IPO would price at a 65–100x sales multiple—very aggressive, even for a high-growth firm.
    • Carl Thiel: "A $1.5 trillion valuation on IPO would mean that they're trading at 100 times sales. I don't think that there's anything remotely in the company as it exists today that justifies that." [06:48]
  • This implies a massive leap of faith on future, as-yet-unrealized growth.
    • Carl Thiel: "You need to be betting that things that have not happened are going to happen and they become increasingly riskier." [06:48]
• Buy or Pass?
  • Rick Munares: "I'm hesitant to say yes at a 1.5 trillion valuation...paying 65 times for a global telecom company is not something very smart."
  • Carl Thiel (populist take): "The question of will you buy the IPO is largely an irrelevant one for us...you can't really buy the IPO. In all likelihood you can buy the post pop IPO." [10:38]
  • Suggestion to look for alternative leverage, e.g., Alphabet’s 7% stake in SpaceX, rather than chasing the IPO pop.
    • Rick Munares: “Alphabet…paid $900 million, got a 7% stake...This is basically a 100 plus bag...at least that's a safer way to potentially play SpaceX.” [11:09]

4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Rick Munares: “Tim, Tim, there's no beachfront property in Mars. I think you need to know that right from the get go. So my travel agent lied to me.” [02:25] (laughter and tone-breaker)
• Rick Munares (on IPO hype): “Out of the gate knowing that there’ll probably be an IPO pop and take it even higher, at least temporarily, I’m not into chasing that kind of rocket.” [10:36]
• Carl Thiel (on valuation): “A $1.5 trillion valuation on IPO would mean...100 times sales. I don’t think...there’s anything remotely in the company as it exists today that justifies that.” [06:48]

Mindset Segment: FOMO Stocks

[13:13 – 15:42]

• Listener Question: Is it harmful to sprinkle a few dollars on 'FOMO' stocks, using fun money?
  • FOMO: Fear of Missing Out; foho: fear of homework omission.
  • Rick Munares: “FOMO without FOHO is a no no in my book.” [14:17]
• Advice:
  • Taking small, speculative positions is fine, if you do your homework—don’t just blindly chase momentum.
    • Rick: “Swing for the fences. Just next time you’re up to plate…try to be a contact hitter to balance things out.” [14:17]
  • Carl: “Calling it a FOMO stock implies...you are buying it for no reason other than that you are chasing momentum and you’re fearful...have a reason that you’re buying it.” [15:13]

Quick Round: 2025 Portfolio Reflections

[18:03 – 18:57]

• Rick and Carl both surprised positively by their 2025 portfolio returns, especially after a challenging early year.
  • Rick Munares: “A lot better than I thought it would be in early April…pleasantly surprised.” [18:27]
  • Carl Thiel: “It’s been a pretty good year overall. I own a lot…of biotech stocks…and it’s been a kind of a banner year for biotech.” [18:41]
• Tim’s advice: Own small speculative positions, build up over time. Don’t over-index on risk (or hype).

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:05] — SpaceX’s business (Starlink, Rockets, Optionality)
• [02:50] — Market comps, valuation, business segments
• [04:05] — Reusable rocket cost economics
• [05:17] — Rule breaker status dialogue
• [06:48] — Starship, risk, and the “100x valuation” concern
• [09:06] — Discussion of 2026 revenue, forward multiples
• [10:36] — “Chasing that kind of rocket” – IPO pop warning
• [11:09] — Alphabet’s SpaceX stake as a safer play
• [13:13] — Mindset: FOMO stocks, “FOMO without FOHO” catchphrase
• [18:03] — Year-end portfolio reflections

Tone and Language

The tone is conversational, insightful, and peppered with humor and skepticism. The analysts balance enthusiasm for SpaceX’s disruptive potential with caution around speculative valuations and market hype.

Summary Takeaway

SpaceX’s IPO would be historic and the business is genuinely disruptive, but the rumored $1.5T valuation demands high conviction in future leaps (especially full Starship reusability and unproven growth avenues). The consensus: Watch, don’t chase; be ready to do the homework, and never buy just out of FOMO.

Notable Quote Wrap-up:

“FOMO without FOHO is a no no in my book.”
— Rick Munares [14:17]

Next episode preview: Tune in Tuesday for Emily Flippen with Jason Hall, discussing the year in earnings and portfolio performance.