Would You Buy the SpaceX IPO?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Motley Fool Money

Episode: Would You Buy the SpaceX IPO?
Date: December 15, 2025
Host: Tim Byers
Guests: Rick Munares & Carl Thiel

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Overview

This episode explores the hot topic of a potential SpaceX IPO, its business fundamentals, and whether investors should be interested if the company goes public at a rumored $1.5 trillion valuation. Motley Fool analysts Tim Byers, Rick Munares, and Carl Thiel discuss the viability and risks of SpaceX, analyzing its business mix (notably Starlink), market disruptiveness, competition, and valuation concerns. The conversation pivots to managing investor mindset, handling FOMO stocks, and closes with a quick reflection on 2025’s market performance.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. SpaceX as a Business: Beyond Rockets

[00:05 – 02:50]

• Elon Musk’s SpaceX: Known for attention-grabbing rocket launches, both successful and otherwise, but less known is the fact that about 70% of its revenue comes from Starlink—the satellite internet business.
  • Carl Thiel: "SpaceX is obviously closely associated with Elon Musk, certainly gets a lot of publicity for its rocket launches…About 70% of SpaceX's revenue comes from Starlink." [01:20]
• Starlink’s Scale: Starlink has rapidly grown to over 8 million subscribers worldwide, making SpaceX as much a global telecom company as an aerospace one.
  • Rick Munares: "Starlink is up to eight plus million subscribers now. It was just like a million just a few years ago…definitely a viable part of the story." [02:09]
• Diverse Optionality: SpaceX is not a “one-dimensional company,” it’s a fusion of launches, satellite internet, and ambitious visions like putting AI data centers in space or Mars colonization.
  • Rick Munares: “But it's not just this one dimensional company...it's a very wide varied company with a lot of optionality, surprisingly enough.” [02:45]

2. Business Economics & Comparisons

[02:50 – 05:52]

• Market Valuation Context: SpaceX’s rumored IPO valuation ($1.5T) would dwarf public comparables like Rocket Lab (RKLB, ~$30B).
• Business Segments:
  • Launches: Paid by NASA and others to lift satellites/other payloads.
  • Starlink: Consumer-facing internet business.
  • Starship: The giant, fully-reusable rocket that could radically lower payload costs.
• Game-Changing Cost Dynamics: Reusable rocket technology could reduce launch costs from $1,500/kg to under $100/kg—a staggering potential disruption.
  • Tim Byers: "If you have a reusable rocket…they believe they could get that down to less than a hundred dollars per kilogram. That's insane. That's some serious economic power here." [04:05]

3. Is SpaceX a Rule Breaker, or Overhyped?

[05:17 – 11:41]

• Rule Breaker Credentials:
  • Starship’s reusability and capacity could change the economics of space and telecom.
    • Carl Thiel: "The idea of a reusable rocket is a massively rule breaking idea. It’s obviously disrupted its industry." [06:48]
  • Yet, much hangs on Starship’s success—it’s not fully operational yet.
    • Carl Thiel: "Starship needs to work…Starship is supposed to be entirely reusable. And if that happens, it's a game changer." [07:13]
• Valuation Worries:
  • Current revenue estimates ($15.5B in 2025; $22–23B in 2026), meaning IPO would price at a 65–100x sales multiple—very aggressive, even for a high-growth firm.
    • Carl Thiel: "A $1.5 trillion valuation on IPO would mean that they're trading at 100 times sales. I don't think that there's anything remotely in the company as it exists today that justifies that." [06:48]
  • This implies a massive leap of faith on future, as-yet-unrealized growth.
    • Carl Thiel: "You need to be betting that things that have not happened are going to happen and they become increasingly riskier." [06:48]
• Buy or Pass?
  • Rick Munares: "I'm hesitant to say yes at a 1.5 trillion valuation...paying 65 times for a global telecom company is not something very smart."
  • Carl Thiel (populist take): "The question of will you buy the IPO is largely an irrelevant one for us...you can't really buy the IPO. In all likelihood you can buy the post pop IPO." [10:38]
  • Suggestion to look for alternative leverage, e.g., Alphabet’s 7% stake in SpaceX, rather than chasing the IPO pop.
    • Rick Munares: “Alphabet…paid $900 million, got a 7% stake...This is basically a 100 plus bag...at least that's a safer way to potentially play SpaceX.” [11:09]

4. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Rick Munares: “Tim, Tim, there's no beachfront property in Mars. I think you need to know that right from the get go. So my travel agent lied to me.” [02:25] (laughter and tone-breaker)
• Rick Munares (on IPO hype): “Out of the gate knowing that there’ll probably be an IPO pop and take it even higher, at least temporarily, I’m not into chasing that kind of rocket.” [10:36]
• Carl Thiel (on valuation): “A $1.5 trillion valuation on IPO would mean...100 times sales. I don’t think...there’s anything remotely in the company as it exists today that justifies that.” [06:48]

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Mindset Segment: FOMO Stocks

[13:13 – 15:42]

• Listener Question: Is it harmful to sprinkle a few dollars on 'FOMO' stocks, using fun money?
  • FOMO: Fear of Missing Out; foho: fear of homework omission.
  • Rick Munares: “FOMO without FOHO is a no no in my book.” [14:17]
• Advice:
  • Taking small, speculative positions is fine, if you do your homework—don’t just blindly chase momentum.
    • Rick: “Swing for the fences. Just next time you’re up to plate…try to be a contact hitter to balance things out.” [14:17]
  • Carl: “Calling it a FOMO stock implies...you are buying it for no reason other than that you are chasing momentum and you’re fearful...have a reason that you’re buying it.” [15:13]

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Quick Round: 2025 Portfolio Reflections

[18:03 – 18:57]

• Rick and Carl both surprised positively by their 2025 portfolio returns, especially after a challenging early year.
  • Rick Munares: “A lot better than I thought it would be in early April…pleasantly surprised.” [18:27]
  • Carl Thiel: “It’s been a pretty good year overall. I own a lot…of biotech stocks…and it’s been a kind of a banner year for biotech.” [18:41]
• Tim’s advice: Own small speculative positions, build up over time. Don’t over-index on risk (or hype).

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:05] — SpaceX’s business (Starlink, Rockets, Optionality)
• [02:50] — Market comps, valuation, business segments
• [04:05] — Reusable rocket cost economics
• [05:17] — Rule breaker status dialogue
• [06:48] — Starship, risk, and the “100x valuation” concern
• [09:06] — Discussion of 2026 revenue, forward multiples
• [10:36] — “Chasing that kind of rocket” – IPO pop warning
• [11:09] — Alphabet’s SpaceX stake as a safer play
• [13:13] — Mindset: FOMO stocks, “FOMO without FOHO” catchphrase
• [18:03] — Year-end portfolio reflections

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Tone and Language

The tone is conversational, insightful, and peppered with humor and skepticism. The analysts balance enthusiasm for SpaceX’s disruptive potential with caution around speculative valuations and market hype.

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Summary Takeaway

SpaceX’s IPO would be historic and the business is genuinely disruptive, but the rumored $1.5T valuation demands high conviction in future leaps (especially full Starship reusability and unproven growth avenues). The consensus: Watch, don’t chase; be ready to do the homework, and never buy just out of FOMO.

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Notable Quote Wrap-up:

“FOMO without FOHO is a no no in my book.”
— Rick Munares [14:17]

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Next episode preview: Tune in Tuesday for Emily Flippen with Jason Hall, discussing the year in earnings and portfolio performance.

Transcript

[A]

Foreign.

[B]

Would you buy the SpaceX ipo? You're listening to motley fool money. Welcome fools. I'm your host, Tim Byers and with me are two old friends and teammates, Rick Benares and Carl Thiel. We've been on Rule breakers together, guys. Give it a couple more years and our tenure on Rule breakers will be retirement age. That's real. Should we be signing up for aarp? I. I don't know, but we're, we're looking at the youth today. So I hope you're fully caffeinated because we got to talk about SpaceX here and the prospective IPO. Bloomberg has reported that the company could go public at a $1.5 trillion valuation. We'll talk a bit more about that report and then answer some mindset questions you sent us. But first we need to start with the SpaceX news. So let's quickly review what we've heard. But I'm going to start with a question for each of you before I give you some data. What do you know about SpaceX? Carl, I'll start with you. What do you think this thing is?

[A]

So SpaceX is obviously closely associated with Elon Musk, certainly gets a lot of publicity for its rocket launches. Sometimes they go great, sometimes not so much. But they certainly capture a lot of attention. What maybe isn't quite as widely known is that about 70% of SpaceX's revenue comes from Starlink. And Starlink is the network of satellites that allows people to essentially make an Internet connection even when they are not near the infrastructure that usually allows that to happen here on firm Earth.

[B]

Yeah, it's satellite Internet. Rick, how about you, what's your indelible memory of SpaceX?

[C]

Yeah, again you think of the spaceships because that's what we see in the news. But Starlink is up to eight plus million subscribers now. It was just like a million just a few years ago. So it's a fast growing global telecom platform. So that's definitely a viable part of the story, the whole space part of it. Yeah, there's payload to take up there, but Frankly I'm not 100% sold on the whole throwing AI data centers up into space or colonizing Mars when there's no beachfront property. Tim, Tim, there's no beachfront property in Mars. I think you need to know that right from the get go. So my travel agent lied to me. But yeah, it is a very wide varied company with a lot of optionality, surprisingly enough. But it's not just this one dimensional company that's just we launch spaceships into skies and that's it.

[B]

Let's talk a little bit more about what this is. The closest comparable from a public market perspective I think would probably be Rocket Lab. And Rocket Lab is Ticker. RKLB is a much smaller company at a market cap of just about 30.3 billion as of this recording. SpaceX wants to go public. If Bloomberg is to replace, to be believed, at a market cap of 1.5 trillion, trillion with a T, that would be the biggest of all time, raising somewhere over $30 billion. There are three pieces to this business and the most interesting one to me. You both mentioned the rocket launches. So they do launches for NASA, for example. They do a lot of payloads. They get satellites up into space to get paid for that. They get paid for Starlink, satellite, Internet. But the thing that's most interesting to me, and I'm going to have a follow up question about this for each of you, is this idea of the spaceship. The spaceship which is you go up, you launch and then you come back down and you land and you have a reusable rocket. That is not something we have had in rocket science ever. Like everybody's working on this. SpaceX is working on this. We hope that, you know, at least a couple Blue Origin is a competitor that's also working on this. But presumably SpaceX thinks they can do this, that they can take down. I'm just looking at a number here which I found somewhat remarkable that the payload launch cost is somewhere around, I believe it is fifteen hundred dollars. Yeah, here it is. I said spaceship, it's Starship. I, I, I got that wrong. Apologies. $1,500 per, per kg for payload. If you have a reusable rocket, if you have a reusable starship, they believe they could get that down to less than a hundred dollars per kilogram. That's insane. That's some serious economic power here. So given that, Rick, I'll start with you. SpaceX, this is a big IPO, but is it a rule breaker if it can achieve that? Of course.

[C]

I mean the whole starship, formerly known as Jefferson Airplane Starship can actually get this to happen. Obviously the cost dynamics of everything and the fact that everything's reusable just, it's.

[B]

A game changer, of course.

[C]

But again, saying you want to get there and being able to actually prove.

[B]

You can do it are two different things.

[C]

But yeah, it definitely, it would be a game changer and it's how quickly can the competition catch up. Not that there are that many Competitors doing this anyway, but I'm still skeptical, but definitely an interesting wrinkle. And again, you know, turning this ceiling into, you know, a retractable roof sometimes.

[B]

Right, right. Carl, let me give you some numbers. And, and then the same question. So this is, I pulled these numbers. Bear in mind, this came from Gemini. So let's not call it perfect. These are estimates. But the, the sourcing that Gemini gives me is that in 2020, SpaceX had $1.4 billion in revenue and net loss and a private market valuation of 44 billion. As of this year, the estimate is for 15.5 billion dollars. So five years later, 1.4 billion to 15 and a half billion. Positive cash flow and an 800 billion private market valuation. So they want to go public at about double that private market valuation. So same thing. Now that's presuming that scale is roughly right. SpaceX a rule breaker.

[A]

SpaceX is sort of synonymous with breaking the rules. I mean, the idea of a reusable rocket is a massively rule breaking idea. It's obviously disrupted its industry. I don't think we're really going back in the foreseeable future to sort of government funded, completely government sponsored space program. So in that sense it's absolutely a rule breaker. That does not mean I'm necessarily interested in the IPO. I mean, you mentioned $15 billion in revenue. A $1.5 trillion valuation on IPO would mean that they're trading at 100 times sales. I don't think that there's anything remotely in the company as it exists today that justifies that. I don't even think that if you take the current trends and project them forward linearly, it justifies that to justify that, you need to see a meaningful acceleration of a number of trends, which means that you need to be betting that things that have not happened are going to happen and they become increasingly riskier. I mean, the one big thing is that Starship needs to work. And Starship is the fully reusable rocket. Right? So Falcon 9, which is, you know, commercially used, is partially reusable. Starship is supposed to be entirely reusable. And if that happens, it's a game changer. I mean, the two things about Starship is, you know, one, it's entirely reusable, and two, it's absolutely massive, can carry a huge payload and critically can carry satellites into space that currently cannot be carried by Falcon 9. So that becomes a game changer for the company. And can SpaceX do that? I believe they can. I mean, this isn't just on paper this is actually being tested. I mean it's not sort of fully ready for prime time, but they've had some successful tests with Starship and so I believe they can get to that part of it in all likelihood. And that itself is kind of a game changer. The second part though really involves taking Starlink to a new level that I have some doubts about and we can talk about that further.

[B]

Tim, maybe you can talk about this in your answer because the final question on this, and I'll give you a lead up to this, Rick, So Carl said 100 times sales. Now that would be 100 times 2025 sales. But the projected revenue for 2026, the, the target date for the SpaceX IPO would be like summer 2026. And the implied revenue growth for from what I'm seeing here, again these are Gemini estimates pulled from different sources. Between 22 and 23 billion dollars in annualized revenue. So about 65x forward sales. So there's your multiple here. We know, we've talked about the business. Are you a buyer of the SpaceX IPO, Rick?

[C]

And this multiple is just for Starlink. Are you talking about Starlink and everything else that's there?

[B]

The more that is all of SpaceX.

[C]

Yeah, all of SpaceX. So yeah, I mean I'm hesitant to say yes at a 1.5 trillion valuation is paying 65 times for a global telecom company is not something very smart. But again, it's all these unknown variables again that the story will change over time. And we see this even with Musk's own Tesla company, the stock has pretty much doubled since April. But if you bought it a year earlier, you're not doing so well. So I think it's a matter of finding the right spot to get into SpaceX. There's going to be a lot of hype when the IPO happens. But out of the gate knowing that there'll probably be an IPO pop and take it even higher, at least temporarily, I'm not into chasing that kind of rocket.

[A]

Yeah, I agree with that too. I mean, and I will say just to take a populist bent here for a moment, I mean the question of will you buy the IPO is largely an irrelevant one for us. You can't really buy the ipo. In all likelihood you can buy the post pop ipo. And, and I would say for most people it probably makes sense to just sit back and, and see what happens for a while. You know, you're, you're, you know, it could continue to go straight up. But I would suspect that there would be a better opportunity if you're interested in the company.

[C]

I think, I think if you want an opportunity in this and again, not, not that this is but I mean again. So 10 years ago, Google Alphabet through Google Ventures paid $900 million, got a 7% stake, a little more than a 7% stake in Space X. If it is a $1.5 trillion company. This is basically a 100 plus bag, 120 bagger, you know, $110 billion stake that that Alphabet will have in SpaceX. Not going to move a lot the needle a lot in Alphabet's massive world, but at least that's a safer way to potentially play SpaceX.

[B]

So Rick, with the reckless prediction here, your other bets line item in the next Alphabet earnings earnings call is going.

[A]

To look a lot better.

[B]

Yeah, I think I'm with you guys but but we want to know what you think. Let us know, leave a comment. Are you buying the SpaceX IPO? Up next, we are going to answer some mindset questions. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

[D]

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[B]

Ussport all right fools. Welcome back Tim Byers with Carl Thiel and Rick Benares and we're going to talk mindset. Thank you so much for answering the call for mindset questions. As a reminder, this occasional segment will be aimed at helping you master the most important skill in investing. Keeping the discipline to get in the market and stay in the market for the long term. So we've got a question from Mark. I hope I'm pronouncing your last name correctly here. I'm going to say Mark Degner. But Mark is asking Rick, what's the harm in sprinkling a few dollars on FOMO stocks as long as it's done with funds I'm not relying on to fund my retirement and can afford to lose in the worst case. What's the difference between fomo for those who don't know what that is? FOMO is fear of missing out. So fear of missing out investing and seeking a bright future for a company whose stock is gaining momentum. So, Rick, what advice do you have for Mark?

[C]

I want to say that again, at rule breakers, we tend to swing for the fences. So fomo, I know it almost seems like a demeaning thing, but it's not necessarily a bad thing. Fear of missing out. But the caveat here is fear, missing out is one thing. Oh, I want to buy this because it's. I want to keep up with the Joneses. I see something shiny, I have to chase that I before it gets away from you. That's bad. But to me, fomo, what really needs is foho, which is fear of homework omission. So if you're going to just buy FOMO without doing your due diligence, that's where you get messed up. So FOMO without foho is a no no in my book. But fomo, as in finding an exciting stock, and you want that to be part of your portfolio. I do not have a problem with that, especially with a small part of your portfolio. Swing for the fences. Just next time you're up to plate, up the plate. Maybe try to be a contact hitter to balance things out.

[B]

I mean, I like this. FOMO without foho is a no, no, no, no. Carl, what do you got for Mark here?

[A]

Yeah, I mean, I guess not saying anything radically different than Rick, but just calling it a FOMO stock implies that you are buying it for no reason other than that you are chasing momentum and you're fearful. And the same stock might actually be a good investment if you have a thesis that you're watching play out. So basically the same thing Rick is saying, you know, have. Have a reason that you're buying it. And then I don't think there's anything wrong with that.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, the main. The main issue here, Mark, is if you are interested in a stock, what you want to know is what you want to see so that you can follow the stock accordingly. If you go in like, I don't know, this thing could be amazing. I have no idea what I'm getting into. That's probably suboptimal. But if you have an idea of what it is you think you're going to see, so then you can measure it and follow it and be a curious investor, then I think you might be rewarded. Keep sending in your mindset questions. I [e-mail] so that's t b y e r sool.com and you could be featured in a mindset question on a future show. Up next, we're going to preview Tuesday's show with Emily Flippin. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

[E]

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[B]

All right, welcome back fools. For Tuesday, Emily Flippen has Jason hall in San Miguel, so you are going to want to be sure to tune in as we start putting the wraps on not only another earnings season, but also another year. How'd 2025 treat your portfolio? Let's just go around the horn on that. I feel like I did okay, rick, how has 2025 treated your portfolio so far?

[C]

A lot better than I thought it would be in early April of this year. So yes, I'M pleasantly surprised with how my portfolio went up on a year. I was embraced for the worst. So yes, well done. Well done portfolio. Well done.

[A]

Mark.

[B]

Yeah, Carl, how about you?

[A]

It's been a pretty good year overall. And I own a lot, just a lot of biotech stocks, you know, in number, not necessarily a huge part of my portfolio. They're not, but I do own a fair number of them and it's been a kind of a banner year for biotech, so that's been helpful.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

I like the way you do this, by the way, just as a, as a pro tip. On our way out here, Carl, does I think what I like to do? Like, I own a lot of tech, but I like to buy really small and, and then build positions up over time. So I don't think you're like overwhelmingly over indexed on tiny speculative biotech. And I neither am like not over indexed at all on tiny speculative tech, but I do have a fair amount of it. Fools thank you for tuning in to Motley Fool Money. We hope you're getting ready for a fantastic holiday break. As always, people on the program, they have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

[A]

Fools.

[B]

This is a we're getting down to the last few few shows here, so thank you for tuning in. Our engineer today was Annie Pope. Our producer is Anand Chuck Ballou. Thanks very much to our guests Carl Thiel and Rick Munares. I am your host, Tim Byers. Stay tuned for Emily Flippen. Jason Hall, San Migueo tomorrow. Full on, everyone. See you soon.