All about tech – from semiconductors to data centres

Summary

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Moving Markets – All about tech: From Semiconductors to Data Centres

Podcast by Julius Baer
Host: Roman Canciani
Guest Experts: Mike Rauber (Product and Investment Content), Enrico Quinello (Next Generation Research)
Date: June 9, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode spotlights the surging influence of technology on global markets, with a focus on semiconductors, AI, and the growing – yet controversial – expansion of data centers, especially in the US. The show begins with a detailed market roundup covering equities, energy, and healthcare, then transitions to a deeper discussion about the public pushback against data center development and its broader economic implications.

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Key Discussion Points

1. Global Market Update and Tech’s Outsized Moves

With Mike Rauber

• European Markets:

  • Started lower but rebounded as oil prices settled (00:40–01:25).
  • "Oil gave up most of its early 5% gain... European stocks were only slightly lower and Brent crude had pulled back to around $94 a barrel." [Mike, 00:51]
  • Weakness in German factory orders (-3.8% in April), specifically autos and electrical equipment.

• Notable Single Stock Moves:

  • Sealand Pharma dropped 23% (drug side effects concerns).
  • Banca Monte dei Paschi (+13%) after a major unsolicited takeover bid (01:30–01:54).

• US Markets:

  • S&P 500 marginally up, but tech outperformed (NASDAQ 100 +1.3%) (02:05).
  • "Chip stocks led the rally... Intel jumped 30% on reports of a large Alphabet AI chip order." [Mike, 02:05]
  • Marvell, Corning also saw significant boosts; Apple lagged (-2%) after a tepid WWDC.

• Upcoming Tech IPOs:

  • "SpaceX expected IPO is attracting strong demand" with $10bn+ in orders.
  • "OpenAI has reportedly filed confidentially for an IPO." [Mike, 02:54–03:18]

• Asian Markets:

  • Major rebound, especially in tech-heavy indices:
    • "South Korea's Kospi is surging 8%, SK Hynix is up 12% after striking a memory chip deal with Nvidia." [Mike, 03:26]
    • Japan strong; Hong Kong lags due to softer Chinese tech stocks (03:26–03:50).

• China's Export Boom:

  • "China's export jumped more than 19% in May from a year earlier, topping forecasts..." (03:56)
  • Imports also soared (+27%); trade surplus hit $105bn, its highest since January.

• Healthcare Moves:

  • Eli Lilly up 1.6% on positive weight loss drug data, hurting Novo Nordisk (-9%).
  • Notable biotech M&A activity: Norix/Roche collaboration (+24%), GSK in talks for $9bn acquisition (04:24–05:00).

• Macro Trends:

  • Rising inflation expectations; markets pricing higher probability of a September Fed hike (53% chance, up from 44%) (05:11–05:49).
  • Limited moves in FX and precious metals; gold at $4,271/oz, below its 200-day moving average.

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2. AI and Data Centres: Growth, Backlash, and Investment Implications

With Enrico Quinello

Rising US Opposition to Data Centres

• The expansion of data centers—a backbone for AI—is triggering growing local and national pushback, becoming a rare point of bipartisan agreement (06:42–07:36).
  • Republican concerns: Focus on tax breaks for developers and stress on local power grids.
  • Democrat concerns: Focus on environmental impacts and rising consumer power bills.
  • “It has gone from scattered, not in my backyard fights, also known with the acronym 'NIMBY,' to a broader national trend and notably a rare point of bipartisan agreement in the US.” [Enrico, 06:54]
  • Some cities, like Denver, Colorado, have imposed moratoriums on new data center projects for at least a year.

Does This Backlash Threaten AI Expansion?

• "The big picture matters...the five hyperscalers in the US alone plan to invest around $750 billion this year, mostly in AI and data center related infrastructure." [Enrico, 07:40]
• Actual risk appears modest:
  • Less than 3% of US data centers faced organized opposition.
  • About 7% for very large “hyperscaler” projects (>100MW).
• “While the headlines and the titles are loud, the share of projects potentially affected is relatively small...we see these as localized friction, not as a structural change.” [Enrico, 08:15]

Possible Investment and Industry Impacts

• Monitoring remains necessary:
  • Project locations may shift to more supportive jurisdictions.
  • Growing trend towards "behind the meter" power—dedicated energy sources instead of reliance on the general grid.
  • Increased negotiation and compensation for local communities.
• Political dimension: With upcoming midterm elections, the topic will remain high-profile as candidates balance AI’s economic promise with local concerns (08:30–09:22).

Outlook for Investors

• “We remain constructive on the cloud computing and AI thematic. With data center investments as the core growth driver, we see no signs of demand slowing down for these solutions. Capacity is the binding bottleneck and hyperscalers are reporting backlogs they cannot fill.” [Enrico, 09:26]
• The backlash is a local operational risk, not a headwind for overall growth in data center and AI infrastructure investment.

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Memorable Quotes & Notable Moments

• “It has gone from scattered, not in my backyard fights…to a broader national trend and notably a rare point of bipartisan agreement in the US.” (Enrico Quinello, 06:54)
• “The big picture matters. So…five hyperscalers in the US alone plan to invest around $750 billion this year...” (Enrico Quinello, 07:40)
• “While the headlines and the titles are loud, the share of projects potentially affected is relatively small.” (Enrico Quinello, 08:15)
• “Capacity is the binding bottleneck and hyperscalers are reporting backlogs they cannot fill…we expect that data center investments are here to stay and will continue to grow.” (Enrico Quinello, 09:26)

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• [00:40] European market rebound and oil moves
• [02:05] US tech rally, chip stocks surge
• [02:54] SpaceX IPO and OpenAI listing news
• [03:26] Asian tech market rebounds
• [03:56] China’s exports and trade surplus data
• [04:24] Key healthcare and biotech moves
• [05:11] Inflation expectations and Fed rate hike probabilities
• [06:42] Enrico Quinello joins: US data center backlash explained
• [07:40] Investment risk by the numbers
• [08:30] Project impact and election context
• [09:26] Julius Baer’s constructive stance on AI/data center growth

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Summary

This episode provides both a rapid, up-to-date market snapshot and an in-depth review of political, social, and investment dynamics affecting the tech sector. Despite headlines warning of NIMBY-driven setbacks, the hosts stress that opposition to data centers is minor compared to the sector’s vast and accelerating capital commitments. Investors are advised to watch localized disruptions closely, but the long-term growth thesis for cloud, AI, and semiconductor infrastructure remains intact.

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Useful for both market followers and those interested in the intersection of AI technology, infrastructure, and social trends.

Transcript

[A]

Good morning and welcome to Julius Baer's Moving Markets podcast. I'm your host, Roman Canciani. Today is Tuesday 9th June. Today I'm pleased to welcome a new joiner to this podcast, Enrico Quinello from our Next Generation research team. And we have an AI related topic to discuss together, namely the growing opposition regarding data centers in the us. But first, let's start with a roundup of the latest developments in global financial markets. For that I'm joined by Mike Rauber from our product and investment content team. Good morning, Mike.

[B]

Good morning, Roman.

[A]

Well, Europe's equity main indices started a day on a down note yesterday, but recovered as oil prices reversed earlier gains to close only a little higher, right?

[B]

Indeed, oil gave up most of its early 5% gain on Monday as tensions between Iran and Israel east. They had flared up over the weekend, as we know. But by the close, European stocks were only slightly lower and Brent crude had pulled back to around $94 a barrel. Now data added to the softer tone in European trading. German factory orders fell 3.8% in April, worse than expected, driven by weak demand in autos and electrical equipment.

[A]

Looking at the single stocks, there was one clear laggard and one standout, right?

[B]

Shares of Sealand Pharma fell 23% after data on its experimental weight loss drug raised side effect concerns. But in contrast, Banca Monte de Paschi di Siena, now that's the world's oldest bank, jumped 13% after Intesa so Paulo launched an unsolicited euro 30.6 billion bid, countering Banco BPM's earlier offer.

[A]

Moving over to the US the S&P 500 rose only slightly. But there was strength in tech. The NASDAQ 100 gained 1.3%. Can you tell us more?

[B]

Chip stocks led the rally with the Philadelphia semiconductor index up 5%, recovering about half of Friday's drop. On Monday, intel jumped 30% on reports of a large Alphabet AI chip order, and Marvell rose 12% on the S&P 500 inclusion announcement. Corning climbed more than 7% after signing a multibillion dollar deal to supply connectivity solutions for Amazon's data centers. However, tech gave back some gains as sentiment weakened. That followed underwhelming takeaways from Apple's Worldwide Developer Conference. Apple fell nearly 2% on the day.

[A]

And of course we have the big tech IPOs upcoming with SpaceX on Friday, right?

[B]

Absolutely. So SpaceX expected IPO is attracting strong demand with reports of over subscription and institutional orders of $10 billion or more for the 85 billion deal. At the same time, OpenAI has reportedly filed confidentially for an IPO confirming the strong pipeline of major tech listings.

[A]

Asian equities are rebounding this morning, supported by tech and AI momentum, with some sharp reversal following Monday's losses.

[B]

Indeed, South Korea's Kospi is surging 8%, SK Hynix is up 12% after striking a memory chip deal with Nvidia. Japan's Nikkei is rising over 2%, also on AI Strengths. But Hong Kong is lagging as weakness in Alibaba, Baidu and BYD is offsetting a 3% rise in Tencent overnight we

[A]

received Chinese economic data and the country remains an export powerhouse, right?

[B]

Absolutely. So China's export jumped more than 19% in May from a year earlier, topping forecasts as booming demand for artificial intelligence hardware offsets disruptions from the war in Iran. Imports soared over 27% in May. That's leaving a trade surplus of over $105 billion, the biggest since January.

[A]

And turning to health care, some notable moves in pharma since Monday morning.

[B]

Absolutely. ELI Lilly rose 1.6% after positive data on its weight loss pill Fondio related to women in menopause. That hurt Novo Nordisk which fell over 9%. In other news, Norix Therapeutics and we're talking more like small mid caps. Biotech jumped 24% on a cancer collaboration with Roche. And separately reports say GSK is in talks to acquire Neuvaland for over $9 billion, highlighting strong biotech deal activity.

[A]

You mentioned that oil retraced early gains yesterday, but that did not stop inflation expectations from moving higher on the day. What can you tell us there?

[B]

Yeah, inflation concerns remain top of mind. Markets raised the probability of a September fed hike to 53%. That's from 44% on Friday after the strong payrolls data. That meant bond yields edged higher on both sides of the Atlantic, but there was not much follow through in other asset classes. Fx, gold and silver were little changed after Friday's sharp moves. Gold, when I last looked this morning it's at $4,271 per ounce, but that's still below its much observed 200 day moving average.

[A]

And what to expect today in terms of economic data releases?

[B]

Not too much actually Roman. We received German industrial production for April at the top of the hour it rose 0.4% as expected, but exports rose a much better than expected 0.9% on the months. Later on we get in the US the small business Optimism Index and the ADP weekly employment change figures and Just lastly, I see European equity futures are slightly in the red while the US is looking slightly up so in the green. And that's all from me.

[A]

Many thanks, Mike, for this comprehensive update.

[B]

Thank you very much for having me, Roman.

[A]

And with that over to you, Enrico. Welcome to the show and thanks for joining and good morning.

[C]

Thank you, Roman.

[A]

Now let's talk about AI and data centers. We are all familiar with the growing use of AI and the rising need for data centers, but these projects are facing rising backlash, in particular in the U.S. right?

[C]

Indeed, Roman, it has gone from scattered, not in my backyard fights, also known with the acronym nimby, to a broader national trend and notably a rare point of bipartisan agreement in the U.S. republicans focus on tax breaks for developers and the strained data centers could create on power grids, while Democrats focus on rising power bills and environmental concerns for the end users. But they are landing in the same place. The pushback we see is also bottom up. Some cities are pausing development. For instance, in Colorado, the city of Denver passed a one year moratorium on new data center projects, and similar trends are emerging elsewhere. So the backlash is real and worth monitoring.

[A]

That sounds serious, but does this actually threaten the AI buildout?

[C]

This is the key question, and in our answer, not materially. In this sense, the big picture matters. So based on market consensus, the five hyperscalers in the US alone, they plan to invest around 750 billions this year, mostly in AI and data center related infrastructure, with spending and capex expected to rise further into 2027. Against that, our analysis of the community pushback indicates that less than 3% of U.S. data centers faced organized opposition and about 7% for large hyperscaler projects, meaning those with capacity above 100 megawatts. So while the headlines and the titles are loud, the share of projects potentially affected is relatively small, and we see these as localized friction, not as a structural change to AI or data center demand.

[A]

So should investors just ignore noise?

[C]

No, it will need to be monitored, and the key impact we see is likely on how new projects could be built. First, for instance, locations could be shifting to more supportive areas from a geographical perspective. Second, we could see higher usage of behind the meter power with data centers relying on dedicated energy sources rather than the broader grid. And third, we could also see better terms for the local communities that could be affected. An additional dimension to the debate is that with the midterm elections approaching later this year, politicians in tight races will also need to balance the AI driven economic growth story with concerns from local communities. So this issue will stay in focus and overall we could see certain projects being delayed, but we expect a limited impact overall.

[A]

Bottom line, does this change your views on the broad theme?

[C]

No, Roman, we remain constructive on the cloud computing and AI thematic. With data center investments as the core growth driver, we see no signs of demand slowing down for these solutions. Capacity is the binding bottleneck and hyperscalers are reporting backlogs they cannot fill. So we see this backlash as a potential risk to individual projects and individual timelines. And it's definitely worth watching closely going forward. But we expect that data center investments are here to stay and will continue to grow.

[A]

Right? Thank you very much Enrico for this update.

[C]

Thanks for having me.

[A]

And that's all for today. So my thanks to our speakers this morning and thank you for tuning in. If you enjoyed today's episode, thanks for watching and haven't yet subscribed, don't forget to do so and please consider leaving us a review on your preferred podcast platform. Do join us again tomorrow Wednesday when Jan Bob will be your host and he will be speaking with more colleagues about what's moving markets. Until then, have a great day and goodbye for now.

[D]

The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research. Please refer to www.juliusbear.com legal podcasts for further other important legal.