Moving Markets — All-time highs and US naval escorts

Podcast: Moving Markets (Julius Baer)
Date: May 4, 2026
Host: Helen Frear
Guests: Jan Bopp (Market News), Menzel Potinsi (Technical Analysis)

Episode Overview

This episode of Moving Markets delivers an expert wrap-up of the latest global financial events, with a heavy focus on recent market highs, sustained geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, OPEC output decisions, US-led naval escorts for commercial vessels, the impact on energy and equity markets, and technical insights on oil, equities, and currency dynamics. The episode aims to help investors make sense of current risks and opportunities as the trading week begins.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Geopolitics: Middle East Tensions and US Response

[01:01 – 02:43]

• Helen Frear opens the discussion by noting that geopolitics remains the primary market driver as the week starts.
• Over the weekend, US President Trump announced he is reviewing a peace proposal from Tehran, but publicly warned of possible renewed military action if Iran “misbehaves.”

  “There is talk of diplomacy with Trump saying Iran wants to make a deal, but there’s also clear warning that the war could flare up.” (Jan Bopp, 01:23)

• The ambiguity is keeping a risk premium in energy markets, although “equity investors seem increasingly practiced at looking through the noise.” (Jan, 01:41)

2. Oil Markets: Price Swings and OPEC Action

[01:45 – 02:24]

• Last week, Brent crude surged above $126 per barrel—a wartime high—before retreating. US crude settled just under $102, with Brent closing closer to $108.
• OPEC’s weekend agreement—raising output by 188,000 barrels/day for June—follows the bloc’s first meeting since the UAE’s departure.

3. Naval Escorts for Commercial Ships

[02:24 – 02:48]

• Major development: Trump announced US Navy escorts for about 1,000 commercial vessels and 20,000 crew through the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to ease shipping disruptions.
• This move is interpreted as a positive catalyst for risk assets, as it reduces immediate supply-chain threats.

4. Market Response: Asia, Tech Rally, and European Equities

[02:48 – 03:20]

• Asian markets rallied—especially tech-heavy South Korea (KOSPI up nearly 6%) and Taiwan—on AI optimism and robust tech earnings.
• US and European equity futures were positioned for a strong week; the Stoxx 600 leapt 1.4% last Thursday.

5. Company Earnings and Trade Policy

[03:20 – 04:22]

• Not all stocks performed equally:
  • Stellantis: Beat expectations on paper but shares fell 6% due to “messy” details.
  • Volkswagen: Shares up slightly despite a 14% drop in profits, as analysts welcomed strategic decisions.
• Trump plans to raise tariffs on EU cars and trucks to 25%, reflecting Washington’s frustration at the pace of EU compliance with a trade agreement.

6. Central Banks: Waiting Game in Europe

[04:22 – 05:00]

• Both the ECB and the Bank of England kept rates on hold last Thursday:
  • Energy inflation complicates their stance.
  • EU Q1 GDP grew just 0.1%; inflation edged up to 3% in April.
  • Policymakers are monitoring whether inflation proves sticky or if slow growth will ease price pressures on its own.

7. US Markets: Record Highs & Tech Outperformance

[05:00 – 05:28]

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new all-time highs; both indices had their strongest monthly performance since 2020.
• Apple shares soared over 3% post-earnings, following strong results and upbeat guidance.

“The S&P 500 climbed to a fresh all time high on Friday and closed above the stock 7200 points for the first time.” (Jan Bopp, 05:04)

8. Week Ahead: Data and Earnings

[05:28 – 05:59]

• Over 100 earnings reports are due, including headline names like AMD, Palantir, Walt Disney, and major European banks.
• Economic data to watch: European PMIs, US trade figures, and the crucial US payrolls report on Friday.

Technical Market Analysis (with Menzel Potinsi)

1. Brent Crude Oil Outlook

[06:09 – 06:57]

• Brent spiked last week but is now range-bound.
• The technical view: market is in a “topping process.” Watch for support at $90–92/barrel—if it breaks, crude could “give back all its gains since the conflict started.”

  “We think that Brent crude oil here is in the topping process and we don’t see further fresh new highs from current levels.” (Menzel Potinsi, 06:55)

2. US Equities: Is the Correction Over?

[06:57 – 07:39]

• Correction appears to have ended; bullish rating on US equities maintained from two weeks ago.
• The tech rally is “broad-based.” S&P may retest 7,000, but “a decline back to 6250 or 6500 seems very unlikely”—expect continued gains.

“Most likely the S&P will continue to climb the wall of worry.” (Menzel Potinsi, 07:25)

3. US Dollar Technical View

[07:39 – 08:40]

• Dollar is lower than before the conflict, failing to act as a traditional “safe haven.”
• The team views this as evidence of a “secular peak.”
  • They recommend remaining short USD, particularly versus emerging market currencies which remain the strongest.
  • Some USD weakness is masked by an even weaker Japanese yen.

“The US Dollar was not able to act as a safe haven. It most likely shows that it is in a long term peak.” (Menzel Potinsi, 07:52)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There is talk of diplomacy with Trump saying Iran wants to make a deal, but there’s also clear warning that the war could flare up. Again, nothing new really, but that ambiguity matters for markets.” — Jan Bopp [01:23]
• “Trump announced that the US will begin to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz so they can get on with their business. We're talking about an estimated 1,000 commercial vessels and about 20,000 seafarers.” — Jan Bopp [02:24]
• “Most likely the S&P will continue to climb the wall of worry.” — Menzel Potinsi [07:25]
• “The US Dollar was not able to act as a safe haven. It most likely shows that it is in a long term peak.” — Menzel Potinsi [07:52]

Important Timestamps

• [01:01] — Geopolitical risks set the week’s tone
• [01:45] — Brent crude surges; OPEC’s output raise
• [02:24] — US Navy escorts for stranded ships
• [02:48] — Asian markets, tech optimism, equity futures
• [03:20] — Stellantis, Volkswagen, Trump’s tariff plans
• [04:22] — Central bank caution (ECB, BoE)
• [05:00] — US all-time market highs, Apple results
• [05:28] — Week ahead: Earnings, data releases
• [06:09] — Technical analysis: Oil, equities, USD

Takeaways for Investors

• Risks from geopolitics remain elevated, with conflicting signals on US-Iran relations and energy supply but with attempts at de-escalation (US naval escorts).
• Equity markets are resilient, buoyed by tech earnings and optimism over artificial intelligence, but underlying risks (inflation, trade) persist.
• Brent crude oil is likely to remain volatile, though possibly past the cycle’s peak according to technicals.
• US dollar weakness may persist—favorable for emerging market currencies, less so for the yen.
• A week packed with earnings and pivotal data releases could set short-term direction for global markets.

Tone: Professional, pragmatic, and analytical—aimed at providing concise, actionable insights for investors entering the week.