All-time highs and US naval escorts

Summary

Moving Markets — All-time highs and US naval escorts

Podcast: Moving Markets (Julius Baer)
Date: May 4, 2026
Host: Helen Frear
Guests: Jan Bopp (Market News), Menzel Potinsi (Technical Analysis)

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Episode Overview

This episode of Moving Markets delivers an expert wrap-up of the latest global financial events, with a heavy focus on recent market highs, sustained geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, OPEC output decisions, US-led naval escorts for commercial vessels, the impact on energy and equity markets, and technical insights on oil, equities, and currency dynamics. The episode aims to help investors make sense of current risks and opportunities as the trading week begins.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Geopolitics: Middle East Tensions and US Response

[01:01 – 02:43]

• Helen Frear opens the discussion by noting that geopolitics remains the primary market driver as the week starts.
• Over the weekend, US President Trump announced he is reviewing a peace proposal from Tehran, but publicly warned of possible renewed military action if Iran “misbehaves.”

  “There is talk of diplomacy with Trump saying Iran wants to make a deal, but there’s also clear warning that the war could flare up.” (Jan Bopp, 01:23)

• The ambiguity is keeping a risk premium in energy markets, although “equity investors seem increasingly practiced at looking through the noise.” (Jan, 01:41)

2. Oil Markets: Price Swings and OPEC Action

[01:45 – 02:24]

• Last week, Brent crude surged above $126 per barrel—a wartime high—before retreating. US crude settled just under $102, with Brent closing closer to $108.
• OPEC’s weekend agreement—raising output by 188,000 barrels/day for June—follows the bloc’s first meeting since the UAE’s departure.

3. Naval Escorts for Commercial Ships

[02:24 – 02:48]

• Major development: Trump announced US Navy escorts for about 1,000 commercial vessels and 20,000 crew through the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to ease shipping disruptions.
• This move is interpreted as a positive catalyst for risk assets, as it reduces immediate supply-chain threats.

4. Market Response: Asia, Tech Rally, and European Equities

[02:48 – 03:20]

• Asian markets rallied—especially tech-heavy South Korea (KOSPI up nearly 6%) and Taiwan—on AI optimism and robust tech earnings.
• US and European equity futures were positioned for a strong week; the Stoxx 600 leapt 1.4% last Thursday.

5. Company Earnings and Trade Policy

[03:20 – 04:22]

• Not all stocks performed equally:
  • Stellantis: Beat expectations on paper but shares fell 6% due to “messy” details.
  • Volkswagen: Shares up slightly despite a 14% drop in profits, as analysts welcomed strategic decisions.
• Trump plans to raise tariffs on EU cars and trucks to 25%, reflecting Washington’s frustration at the pace of EU compliance with a trade agreement.

6. Central Banks: Waiting Game in Europe

[04:22 – 05:00]

• Both the ECB and the Bank of England kept rates on hold last Thursday:
  • Energy inflation complicates their stance.
  • EU Q1 GDP grew just 0.1%; inflation edged up to 3% in April.
  • Policymakers are monitoring whether inflation proves sticky or if slow growth will ease price pressures on its own.

7. US Markets: Record Highs & Tech Outperformance

[05:00 – 05:28]

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new all-time highs; both indices had their strongest monthly performance since 2020.
• Apple shares soared over 3% post-earnings, following strong results and upbeat guidance.

“The S&P 500 climbed to a fresh all time high on Friday and closed above the stock 7200 points for the first time.” (Jan Bopp, 05:04)

8. Week Ahead: Data and Earnings

[05:28 – 05:59]

• Over 100 earnings reports are due, including headline names like AMD, Palantir, Walt Disney, and major European banks.
• Economic data to watch: European PMIs, US trade figures, and the crucial US payrolls report on Friday.

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Technical Market Analysis (with Menzel Potinsi)

1. Brent Crude Oil Outlook

[06:09 – 06:57]

• Brent spiked last week but is now range-bound.
• The technical view: market is in a “topping process.” Watch for support at $90–92/barrel—if it breaks, crude could “give back all its gains since the conflict started.”

  “We think that Brent crude oil here is in the topping process and we don’t see further fresh new highs from current levels.” (Menzel Potinsi, 06:55)

2. US Equities: Is the Correction Over?

[06:57 – 07:39]

• Correction appears to have ended; bullish rating on US equities maintained from two weeks ago.
• The tech rally is “broad-based.” S&P may retest 7,000, but “a decline back to 6250 or 6500 seems very unlikely”—expect continued gains.

“Most likely the S&P will continue to climb the wall of worry.” (Menzel Potinsi, 07:25)

3. US Dollar Technical View

[07:39 – 08:40]

• Dollar is lower than before the conflict, failing to act as a traditional “safe haven.”
• The team views this as evidence of a “secular peak.”
  • They recommend remaining short USD, particularly versus emerging market currencies which remain the strongest.
  • Some USD weakness is masked by an even weaker Japanese yen.

“The US Dollar was not able to act as a safe haven. It most likely shows that it is in a long term peak.” (Menzel Potinsi, 07:52)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There is talk of diplomacy with Trump saying Iran wants to make a deal, but there’s also clear warning that the war could flare up. Again, nothing new really, but that ambiguity matters for markets.” — Jan Bopp [01:23]
• “Trump announced that the US will begin to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz so they can get on with their business. We're talking about an estimated 1,000 commercial vessels and about 20,000 seafarers.” — Jan Bopp [02:24]
• “Most likely the S&P will continue to climb the wall of worry.” — Menzel Potinsi [07:25]
• “The US Dollar was not able to act as a safe haven. It most likely shows that it is in a long term peak.” — Menzel Potinsi [07:52]

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Important Timestamps

• [01:01] — Geopolitical risks set the week’s tone
• [01:45] — Brent crude surges; OPEC’s output raise
• [02:24] — US Navy escorts for stranded ships
• [02:48] — Asian markets, tech optimism, equity futures
• [03:20] — Stellantis, Volkswagen, Trump’s tariff plans
• [04:22] — Central bank caution (ECB, BoE)
• [05:00] — US all-time market highs, Apple results
• [05:28] — Week ahead: Earnings, data releases
• [06:09] — Technical analysis: Oil, equities, USD

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Takeaways for Investors

• Risks from geopolitics remain elevated, with conflicting signals on US-Iran relations and energy supply but with attempts at de-escalation (US naval escorts).
• Equity markets are resilient, buoyed by tech earnings and optimism over artificial intelligence, but underlying risks (inflation, trade) persist.
• Brent crude oil is likely to remain volatile, though possibly past the cycle’s peak according to technicals.
• US dollar weakness may persist—favorable for emerging market currencies, less so for the yen.
• A week packed with earnings and pivotal data releases could set short-term direction for global markets.

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Tone: Professional, pragmatic, and analytical—aimed at providing concise, actionable insights for investors entering the week.

Transcript

[A]

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Julia Spares Moving Markets podcast. It's Monday the 4th of May, and my name is Helen Frear. First of all today, let me just quickly mention our latest View beyond podcast, which was published over the weekend. This week it was me hosting and I spoke to Eve Klenk and Maximiliano Ranieri about how structured products can be used as a tool in volatile markets. So this is available as usual on this channel, Moving Markets, and it's called the View. How can structured products help navigate current markets? But back to today now, and I'll be talking first of all this morning to my colleague Jan Bopp about the latest market news and what's coming up this week. And then I'll be speaking to our head of technical analysis, Menzel Potinsi, to get his latest thoughts from the technical side. So that is coming up in a few minutes. But let's get started with a wrap up of the market news first.

[B]

Good morning, Jan. Good morning, Helen.

[A]

Let's start with geopolitics because this is again what's really setting the tone as we head into the new week. Over the weekend, President Trump said he's reviewing a peace proposal from Tehran, but he also openly floated the idea of resuming military strikes if Iran were to misbehave.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. I mean, there is talk of diplomacy with Trump saying Iran wants to make a deal, but there's also clear warning that the war could flare up. Again, nothing new really, but that ambiguity matters for markets. It keeps risk premium in the system, especially in energy markets, while equity investors seem increasingly practiced at looking through the noise.

[A]

Before we talk about equity markets, people, let's talk about oil, because that really told the story last week, didn't it?

[B]

Yeah, absolutely. At one point, Brent crude surged past $126 a barrel, a wartime high. By the end of the week, though, prices cooled. U.S. crude settled just under $102, spread around 108. On Sunday, OPEC agreed to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day for June in their first meeting since the loss of its key member, the United Arab Emirates.

[A]

And that will probably help the market. But the big news came then later on Sunday.

[B]

Right? Right, Helen. Trump announced that starting Monday, the US Will begin to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz so they can get on with their business. We're talking about an estimated 1,000 commercial vessels and about 20,000 seafarers. So big news this morning and that's

[A]

also good news for risk assets. Markets in Asia are up this Morning.

[B]

Yes, and it's not only geopolitical news. Optimism around the artificial intelligence trade and stronger than expected earnings from mega cap tech companies lifted especially tech heavy benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan to all time highs. The Kospi is trading almost 6% higher this morning. U.S. and European equity futures are also pointing to a higher open. And just quickly on Europe. Markets were closed on Friday, but the Stoxx 600 jumped already 1.4% on Thursday.

[A]

Okay, although not every stock joined the party. Stellantis for example.

[B]

That's right. Stellantis reported operating income well ahead of expectations. Revenues grew 6% year on year. So on paper that's solid. But according to analysts, details were pretty messy. Shares fell more than 6%. Shares in Volkswagen on the other hand, rose slightly despite reporting a 14% dent in profits. Analysts are happy with decisions the company is making and carmakers will surely continue to be busy in the days and months ahead. Over the weekend, Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on EU cars and trucks to 25% starting this week. Now, Washington and Brussels struck a trade agreement that reduced Trump's Liberation day levies to 15% on most goods imported to the U.S. but U.S. officials have grown very frustrated by the slow pace at which the European Union has moved to implement its side of the deal.

[A]

The economic uncertainty in general is certainly one reason why both the ECB and the bank of England stayed on hold

[B]

last Thursday, as expected. Yes, policymakers are really in a difficult spot. The Iran war keeps energy prices elevated, which complicates the inflation outlook. And at the same time, growth in the euro area is losing momentum. Data last week showed that GDP expanded just 0.1% in the first quarter, while inflation picked up to 3% in April. So they are waiting to see whether inflation proves sticky or whether weaker growth does the tightening for them.

[A]

And how does this compare with the mood in the US now?

[B]

The S&P 500 climbed to a fresh all time high on Friday and closed above the stock 7200 points for the first time. The Nasdaq did the same. Also new all time high. Both just had their strongest monthly performance since 2020. Apple helped with shares up more than 3% after beating earnings and revenue expectations and offering an upbeat outlook.

[A]

And finally then looking ahead to today, what should investors be looking out for?

[B]

Well, markets are praised for more than 100 earnings reports this week. Earnings from big European banks and AMD Palantir, Walt Disney. So there will be plenty of stock specific news to cover. UK Markets are closed today, but we do Get PMI data across Europe, US Trade figures and the payrolls report on Friday. So it looks like a positive start to a very busy week.

[A]

Okay, thank you very much Jan for the great roundup to start the week.

[B]

Thanks for having me, Helen.

[A]

And now over to you, Menzel. Good morning.

[C]

Good morning, Helen.

[A]

So Brent crude oil rose to fresh 52 week highs last week but it's now back in its previous range. What does the technical picture look like? Menzel?

[C]

Yes, the technical picture is basically unchanged. We still think this is a topping process in Brent crude oil. It would be interesting or it would be good if Brent crude oil would drop below 102. But the key level to watch is basically 9092 US dollar. If this level were to break then most likely Brent crude oil will give back all its gains since the conflict started. So from that point of view we think that Brent crude oil here is in the topping process and we don't see further fresh new highs from current

[A]

levels and US equities they've risen to new all time highs. Is the correction over?

[C]

Yes, I mean most likely the correction is over. Remember we upgraded US equities already to bullish two weeks ago. So we think here this rally especially in technology stocks is quite broad based. And yes, the S and P could easily come back and retest 7,000. So meaning the breakout of these lengthy trading range but nevertheless a Decline back to 6250 or 6500 seems very unlikely and most likely the SP will continue to climb the wall of worry.

[A]

All right, now just lastly I'd like to ask you about the US Dollar Menzor because it's currently lower than before the war started. What's your view here?

[C]

I think this is one more sign of a secular peak in the US dollar. So we had here a major geopolitical conflict war and the US Dollar was not able to act as a safe haven. It most likely shows that it is in a long term peak. And so that's why we think the risks are quite high that sooner or later the US Dollar will escape its trading range from last July and we continue to recommend investors to remain short. The US dollar and strongest strengths of the US dollar are still within emerging markets. So emerging market currencies still look best against the US Dollar and the US Dollar weakness is basically masked slightly by an exceptionally weak Japanese yen. So that's why we continue to recommend here investors to stay away from the US Dollar.

[A]

All right, thank you very much. Menzel, great to hear from you again this morning. Thank you Helen so that is all for today. Thank you again to my guests, and thank you all for tuning in. Don't forget to subscribe to the show if you haven't already. And do join us again again tomorrow when Bernadette will be your host and she'll be talking to more of our colleagues about what is moving markets. Have a great start to the week, everyone, and bye for now. The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research. Please refer to www.juliusbear.com legal podcasts for further other important legal information.