Ending the week on a high?

Summary

Podcast Summary

Moving Markets – "Ending the week on a high?"

Host: Helen Frear, Julius Baer
Episode Date: July 31, 2026

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1. Overview

This episode of Moving Markets wraps up the week’s financial news, spotlighting the rebound in US stocks after the Fed’s rate decision, major earnings highlights from tech giants, notable Asian and European market movements, and the latest developments in currencies and precious metals. Guests Bernadette Anderko and Tim Gagie join host Helen Frear to discuss key market drivers, central bank decisions, and what might shape the trading day ahead.

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2. Key Discussion Points & Insights

US Market Rebound

• US Stocks Surge After Fed Holds Rates
  • The NASDAQ jumped 2.8%, S&P 500 rose 1.7%, and Dow gained 1.2%, bouncing back after a significant sell-off ([00:46]).
  • Drivers: Microsoft shares soared 16% post-Azure growth; semiconductor stocks rallied with Micron (+18%), AMD (+13%), SK Hynix (+17%), and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (+8%).
  • Meta Platforms declined 8% after a pessimistic revenue outlook and a 91% drop in free cash flow ([01:43]).

US Earnings: Apple and Amazon

• Apple’s Mixed Results
  • Q2 earnings beat expectations, but shares fell 5.5% afterhours due to soft services sales and a downbeat forecast tied to supply chain issues.
• Amazon’s Strong Cloud Growth
  • Delivered strongest cloud growth in 4+ years; increased capex forecast, citing robust AI-driven demand. Shares up nearly 9% post-close ([01:49]).

Asia Market Highlights

• South Korea’s KOSPI Surges
  • KOSPI rallied 18% in one session due to a tech rally and insider buying from the SK Group chairman in SK Hynix ([02:58]).
• China’s Economic Slowdown
  • PMI dropped to 49.2 (below contraction threshold), first contraction since February; services sector also weakened ([02:58]).

Japan & Monetary Policy

• Bank of Japan Stays on Hold
  • Rate stays at 1% (8-1 vote); warning that core inflation could exceed 2% in H2 fiscal 2026 ([04:03]).
• Implication: Policy continues tightening bias—no promise of faster hikes, but higher rates still likely.

European Market Overview

• Bank of England on Hold
  • Key rate steady at 3.75% (split vote); expectations of further hikes diminished (30% chance for September, down from 60%) ([04:49]).
• Euro Area GDP Outperforms
  • Q2 GDP at +0.4% QoQ vs. +0.2% expected, showing resilience post-energy shock.
• STOXX 600 Up
  • Led by industrials and manufacturing gains ([04:49]).

What’s Next: Major Events Ahead

• Key Earnings
  • ExxonMobil, Chevron, Engie, Holcim and others report today.
• US Data Releases
  • Q2 Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI due ([06:03]).
• Outlook
  • Futures point to a positive US open ([06:03]).

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3. Currencies & Metals: Tim Gagie’s Update

Japanese Yen

• Yen Volatility
  • Rapid yen strength (up 3.5%), then reversal after the BoJ held rates ([06:40]).
  • Speculation of intervention:

    "As always, when the yen moves, it certainly looks like intervention ... The timing was curious to say the least."
    — Tim Gagie ([06:55])

  • "You cannot change the direction of a currency this way…especially when you intervene to strengthen the currency," Tim adds, doubting lasting yen strength ([07:29]).

US Dollar

• Dollar Eases After Fed Holds
  • Earlier week strength faded as Fed keeps rates steady.
  • Tim sees no clear reason to aggressively short the dollar, with major central banks also on hold:

    "I just struggle to look at that latest Fed meeting and find any reasons to aggressively short the dollar."
    — Tim Gagie ([08:11])

• Limited Appeal for Non-Dollar Exposure
  • Yen, Swiss franc, euro, and sterling offer limited alternative appeal; some room for peripheral currencies, but no strong anti-dollar case ([08:42]).

Gold

• Stuck in Range
  • Gold steady above $4,000; range-bound and waiting for a breakout.

    "Rallies are very underwhelming and the recent range in gold is much narrower than what we are used to … I think we need to see a break above 4,200 before anyone really starts opening new long positions."
    — Tim Gagie ([09:26])

  • Tim prefers holding some gold exposure but doesn’t see a new catalyst yet.

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4. Notable Quotes & Moments

• On US Tech Rally:

  "Microsoft and semiconductors definitely helped to drive the gains yesterday … a big relief after its worst one day decline since April last year."
  — Bernadette Anderko ([00:46])

• On Amazon’s Capex Rise:

  "…the company is still lacking enough computing capacity to actually serve customers, despite raising its capital spending forecast by 10% to US$220 billion."
  — Bernadette Anderko ([01:49])

• On KOSPI Surge:

  "Last time I looked, it was up 18% in the session. 18% in one day after what can genuinely be described as a roller coaster month."
  — Bernadette Anderko ([02:58])

• On Currency Interventions:

  "I’ve made my views on interventions clear in the past. I think they are a waste of money and time. You cannot change the direction of a currency this way."
  — Tim Gagie ([07:20])

• On Gold:

  "The longer we can hold on to this support, then the more chance hopefully we have of building a base. Rallies are very underwhelming … I think we need to see a break above 4,200 before anyone really starts opening new long positions."
  — Tim Gagie ([09:26])

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5. Key Timestamps

| Time | Segment/Topic | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------| | 00:35 | US stock performance & tech drivers | | 01:49 | Apple & Amazon earnings post-market | | 02:58 | Asia – KOSPI rally & China PMI decline | | 04:03 | Bank of Japan holds rates at 1% | | 04:49 | Europe: BoE, eurozone GDP, STOXX 600 | | 06:03 | Preview of key earnings & data ahead | | 06:40 | Currencies: Yen volatility, dollar outlook | | 09:26 | Metals: Gold holding above $4,000 |

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6. Takeaways & Overall Tone

• The episode has an upbeat, concise, and insight-driven tone—balancing the week’s volatility with several positive signals, especially for US equities and selective European data.
• Both guests stress caution amid market headwinds (Fed, BoE, BoJ on hold), yet anticipate some continued strength, especially in tech and with prudent gold exposure.
• Currency markets remain sensitive to central bank signals but lack a strong directional catalyst for the US dollar or yen.
• Core advice: stay informed, watch for breakouts (in both equities and gold), and don’t overreact to short-term central bank moves or intervention rumors.

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For more details on the legal implications or to listen to the next episode, visit Julius Baer’s podcast page.

Transcript

[A]

Good morning everyone and welcome to Julius Baer's Moving Markets Podcast. It's Friday 31st July and my name is Helen Frear. My first guest this morning is Bernadette Anderko and she'll be giving us a roundup of the latest news in financial markets. And then I'll be catching up with Tim Gagie who has his Friday update for us on what's been happening in currencies and metals markets. But first up with the market news, it is Bernadette. Good morning, Bernadette. Thank you for joining me.

[B]

Good morning, Helen. Pleasure to be here.

[A]

Why don't we start with the performance of US Stocks yesterday? We saw a welcome rebound after Wednesday's sell off when the Fed kept rates unchanged, didn't we?

[B]

Well, indeed we did, Helen, and Microsoft and semiconductors definitely helped to drive the gains yesterday. The Nasdaq composite finished 2.8% higher, ending a six day losing streak, while the S&P 500 rose 1.7% yesterday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 1.2%, a big relief after its worst one day decline since April last year on Wednesday. So a little bit more of the detail I mentioned. Microsoft, their shares jumped 16% after reporting growth from its Azure business. The iShares Semiconductor ETF rallied more than 8%. Micron Technology was up 18%, Advanced Micro Devices was up 13% and the momentum trade also returned. Helen and stock surged too. SK Hynix up more than 17%. In contrast, Meta Platforms was down 8% after its soft revenue forecast and a 91% drop in second quarter free cash flow.

[A]

And of course we had two big earnings announcements in the US after the market closed yesterday, didn't we?

[B]

We did. Apple and Amazon. So starting with Apple, they released Q2 earnings statement that showed results broadly beating market expectations. But the relatively soft sales of services did unnerve some invest investors and the company also announced that forecast sales for the current quarter, which will end in September, are set to grow more slowly than had been targeted as the company struggling to get the parts it needs to deliver its products and shares fell around 5.5% in after hours trade for Apple. Amazon, however, delivered its strongest cloud growth in more than four years. It raised its annual capital spending forecast, reinforcing its argument that heavy investment in AI is actually generating sufficient demand to warrant these. Outl firm's CEO said demand remained so strong that the company is still lacking enough computing capacity to actually serve customers, despite raising its capital spending forecast by 10% to US$220 billion. And we saw shares in Amazon climbing nearly 9% after the markets closed. And that followed a 3.9% rise during the trading session.

[A]

And what's been the story in Asia overnight?

[B]

Well, I think really hitting the headlines here was South Korea's Kosphell. And last time I looked it was up 18% in the session. 18% in one day after what can genuinely be described as a roller coaster month for the Kospi. Clearly some of the rally was powered by the US rally in tech stocks. But additional support also came after the SK Group chairman disclosed purchases of SK Hynix shares. And that's clearly boosted confidence in the memory chip maker elsewhere in Asia. This morning we got news that China's manufacturing sector has unexpectedly dropped back into contraction territory in July while activity in the services sector also weakened. So the official manufacturing PMI in China declined to 49.2 from 50.3 in June and that was falling short of expectations of 50.1 and marking the first contraction since February this year. Non manufacturing PMI and composite PMI also fell below 50.

[A]

And we need to talk about Japan, don't we? The bank of Japan became the third central bank this week to leave its rates unchanged this morning.

[B]

Yeah, that's right, Helen. Following on from last month's rate increase, the bank of Japan's rate setting committee kept rates on hold at 1%. That was in line with market expectations. It was an eight to one decision with one board member proposing a hike to one and a quarter percent. While Japan's core inflation for July came in at 1.6% and has been below 2% for most of the year. The bank of Japan warned that core inflation in the country is likely to accelerate to a level it says clearly above 2% from the second half of its 2026 fiscal year. And while it didn't say if it will quicken the pace of rate hikes, it certainly made clear that it's going to be continuing to raise the policy interest rate.

[A]

What about in Europe, Bernadette, what caught your eye here in trading yesterday?

[B]

Well, you already mentioned it, didn't you? Said the third bank of the week with the bank of Japan. And the second one was yesterday, the bank of England's rate decision. They left key interest rates unchanged at three and three quarter percent in a vote that split the committee with three members voting for a 25 basis points point hike. Yesterday, the bank of England said that all members agreed the risks to the path of energy prices remain skewed to the upside. Meanwhile, comments by Governor Bailey that The bank of England was not edging towards a rate hike means that markets have dialed back their expectation of future hikes in response pricing in the likelihood of a September hike now only at 30% when it was previously at 60%. Elsewhere we also had Euro area Q2 real GDP data yesterday that came in at a solid 0.4% quarter on quarter in the preliminary reading. That was versus an expectation of only 0.2% and is certainly adding to the sense of the euro area economy's resilience in the face of the energy shock. European markets closed higher yesterday with the pan European STOXX 600 index advancing nearly 0.8%, led by gains in industrial and manufacturing earnings.

[A]

All right, and just before I let you go then, what should we be looking out for in the day ahead?

[B]

Well, earnings continue apace, Helen. We've got ExxonMobil, Abbie, Chevron, Linda Axa, Engie and Holcim all reporting today, amongst others. When it comes to data releases, we'll have from the US Q2 Employment Cost Index as well as the Chicago PMI. And as I look at the futures boards, Helen, the markets are looking to a positive open in the States, so let's hope it stays that way. That's it from me.

[A]

Wonderful. Thanks a lot, Bernadette, for the great roundup this morning.

[B]

Thanks. Thanks for having me, Helen.

[A]

And now over to you, Tim. Good morning.

[C]

Firstly, Good morning, Helen.

[A]

Let's start with the yen, shall we? Where we saw it strengthen 3.5% pretty quickly, followed by a return to above 160 with the bank of Japan on hold. What do you make of this?

[C]

As always, when the yen moves, it certainly looks like intervention. The initial trigger seems to be some more general dollar selling, which we can come onto next. But certainly somebody jumped on it to buy quite a lot of yen. Volumes were very high. We don't know for sure who did what yet. If it was an intervention, the timing was curious to say the least. Why would you intervene the day before the bank of Japan meeting? The only reason I can think of, and it isn't a very reassuring one for yen bulls, is so that cosmetically the yen is less weak when the bank of Japan come to make their announcement. Otherwise, why spend all that money ahead of then keeping rates on hold, which is the whole reason the yen is weak in the first place. I've made my views and interventions clear in the past. I think they are a waste of money and time. You cannot change the direction of a currency this way. This is especially the case when you intervene to strengthen the currency, as this requires spending foreign currency reserves of which there is a limited supply. So I rather expected some yen selling once the dust settled. And as I was preparing this and as we're talking now, we are still waiting for Governor Ueda's press conference, so maybe surprise us, but otherwise I'm suspicious of there being much more yen upside from here.

[A]

You mentioned that the dollar also sold off more generally yesterday. Was this to do with the Fed? Do you think we have more weakness to come here?

[C]

Yeah, the dollar strengthened quite a bit earlier in the week, especially on Wednesday before the Fed meeting where there was a small but not insignificant chance of a surprise rate hike. And we suspected that investors were positioning themselves just in case the Fed did do something. And once the Fed stayed on hold, people were quite happy to lighten up a bit, send back a bit of that dollar exposure to even things up. So from that perspective, I don't see any compelling arguments for a much weaker dollar from here. The bank of England are also on hold, basically the same stance as the Fed. And I just struggle to look at that latest Fed meeting and find any reasons to aggressively short the dollar. The market has somewhat backed off pricing in a rate hike for the September meeting. Fair enough, but it's still six weeks away and we still have one hike priced in for this year. I'd be very careful about selling dollars into this mild weakness, especially where yield is lower or risk is higher, which excludes for sometimes both. But one of the other reasons Swiss francs, yen, euros and Sterling and in G10, that doesn't leave you very much except some peripheral exposure to Aussie dollars and Norwegian krona, which is fine, but I don't think that's going to be a case for a much weaker dollar from here.

[A]

Gold struggled to participate in the dollar selling, but we are still comfortable above 4,000 for now. Any change to your view here, Tim?

[C]

Not really. As you say, gold above 4,000 is the main thing to watch on the downside, and the longer we can hold onto this support then the more chance hopefully we have of building a base. Having said that, rallies are very underwhelming and the recent range in gold is much narrower than what we are used to. It seems unlikely that this tight range can remain the case for too long. I'm still hoping for a break to the upside, but with rates still pretty high, the opportunity cost of holding gold also remains high. So investors seem reluctant to do much more than a bit of in and out trading. So I don't really have anything particularly new to say here. I still would prefer to maintain some gold exposure and add some if you don't have any. But making the case for doing anything new is no easier than it was a month ago when we were at exactly the same level as today. I think we need to see a break above 4200 before anyone really starts opening new long positions. So for now I think we just have to be patient. And finally, Helen, this might make me sound big headed, but I can't get my jumper on.

[A]

Very good. Thank you Tim. Great to speak to you as always. So that is all for today. Thank you again to my guests this morning and thank you all for tuning in. Please subscribe to our show if you enjoy it and you can of course also leave us a review on whichever platform you like to to listen on. So we'll be back again on Monday morning. Do join us then when Jan Bok will be your host and he'll be joined as always by more of our colleagues to talk about what is moving markets. But until then I wish you all a great day and then a great weekend. Bye for now.

[D]

The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research. Please refer to www.juliusbear.com legal podcasts for further other important legal.