From ceasefire relief to risk‑off reality

Summary

Moving Markets: From Ceasefire Relief to Risk‑Off Reality

Date: April 13, 2026
Host: Bernadette (Julius Baer)
Guests:

• Mike Rauber (Market Commentary)
• Mensor Pochinsi (Head of Technical Analysis)

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Episode Overview

This episode of Moving Markets tackles the dramatic shift in global market sentiment following failed US-Iran peace talks, President Trump's threat of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed volatility in oil and risk assets. The team analyzes the impact of these geopolitical developments on markets, inflation, and sector performance. They also review technical market insights, major earnings expectations, and highlight a key political change in Hungary.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Geopolitical Deadlock & Market Impact

• Ceasefire talks between Iran and the US collapsed over the weekend, triggering President Trump's announcement to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, focusing only on Iranian oil but exempting non-Iranian port traffic.

  • Quote:

    “President Trump said he's going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after talks to end the Iran war ended without a resolution.” (A, 00:05)

• Immediate market reaction:

  • Brent crude up over 7% to nearly $102/barrel.
  • European gas prices jumped 18% above €50/MWh.
  • US Central Command specified a blockade on Iranian ports, halting ~2 million barrels/day of Iranian oil, tightening global supplies.
  • Quote:

    "American forces will begin a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports from 10:00am Eastern Time this Monday ... In effect, this is an Iran energy embargo." (B, 03:03)

2. Last Week: Ceasefire Relief Rally versus Economic Worries

• Early-week ceasefire news triggered a major rebound in risk assets:
  • Major equity indices rose sharply (Euro Stoxx 50 +3%, Nikkei 225 +7%—best week since 2024).
  • Oil saw one of its largest-ever price drops as a result.
  • US dollar fell each day last week; gold rallied 18% from late March lows.
• Despite the rally, economic indicators flagged underlying stress:
  • EU flagged potential growth forecast cuts.
  • University of Michigan Sentiment Index fell to an all-time low.
  • Quote:

    “The US dollar fell every day last week, global bond yields reversed lower and gold rallied for the third straight week, up over 18% from the lows on 23 March.” (B, 01:21)

3. Inflation Fears Reignite

• Inflation data (Friday):
  • Germany: CPI jumped to 2.8%.
  • US: CPI accelerated to 3.3%, driven by a record 21% gasoline price surge (the largest monthly increase since records began in 1967).

    “US number showed that inflation accelerated sharply to 3.3%. That's driven by a 21% surge in the cost of gasoline, which was the biggest monthly jump in records back to 1967.” (B, 01:54)

  • Core inflation remains contained, but the IMF warns global prices will take time to normalize, even if conflict eases.

    “IMF Managing director Kristalina Georgieva warned that even if the conflict eases now, global prices will take time to return to pre war levels.” (B, 02:23)

4. Market Sentiment & Early Reactions (Monday Morning)

• Mixed equity responses in Asia: Nikkei down 0.3%, mainland China slightly up, Hong Kong down around 1%.
• Asset flows:
  • US dollar up vs all majors.
  • Gold down 0.5% after big gains.
  • Bond yields rise, led by Japanese 10-year reaching 2.49%, the highest since 1997, driven by inflation fears.
  • Quote:

    “Bond yields are higher now. That's led by Japan where the 10-year yield has risen to 2.49%, the highest since 1997.” (B, 04:07)

• Risk-off mood, but not a full-blown panic:

  “I would call it more of a risk-off mood because moves are mostly measured now. Uncertainty of course is high, such as whether the two week ceasefire is already history or not.” (B, 03:48)

5. European Political Shift

• Hungarian elections:
  • Viktor Orbán conceded after 16 years, pro-European opposition wins a 2/3 majority.
  • Forint rallies 2% vs euro, now at 4-year high.

    “Hungary's forint is up 2% against the euro this morning, trading at a four year high.” (B, 04:56)

6. Corporate Earnings Season

• High expectations:
  • US S&P 500: Expected EPS growth +12%.
  • Europe: Expected EPS growth ~10%.
• Upcoming reports: Goldman Sachs, LVMH (Monday); Citigroup, JP Morgan (Tuesday); ASML, Hermes, Bank of America (Wednesday); Charles Schwab, Netflix, TSMC (Thursday).
  • Quote:

    “Key companies reporting today include Goldman Sachs and LVMH.” (B, 05:25)

7. Economic & Policy Calendar

• World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings in Washington to focus on commodity shocks and war disruptions.
• Key data: China Q1 GDP, Eurozone inflation, US March PPI and Beige Book.
• Futures: US and European equities seen opening ~1% down, reflecting continued risk aversion.

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Technical Analysis: Oil and Equities

Oil

• Still seen in a “topping process.”
  • Key level: Support at $92/barrel; a break below would confirm a medium-term peak.

    “We view this as a topping process in oil with key support around US$92. If US$92 break, then we have confirmed medium term peak in oil prices.” (C, 06:50)

Equities

• Recently upgraded to bullish:
  • Financials became “quite oversold,” indicating excessive short-term bearishness.
  • The US dollar failed to sustain its gains.
  • Market breadth in US equities improved, with the average stock rebounding ahead of the S&P 500, creating a bullish divergence.

    “In the correction we saw that financials got quite oversold... The US Dollar failed to sustain its gains... and market breadth of US equities, we see that they bottomed ahead of the S&P 500 and we have there a bullish divergence.” (C, 07:14)

• Sector leadership:
  • Semiconductors are leading the recovery with “broad and strong global trend,” breaking out to new all-time highs.

    “The broadest rally we see is in semiconductors and this is a very broad and strong trend globally... this segment will continue to be the leader in the equity market.” (C, 08:04)

  • Underperformance warning: Software continues to decline; investors are advised not to “bottom fish” in this downtrend.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On geopolitics and market nerves:

  "President Trump also said that the US Navy will interdict ships that have paid Iran a transit toll." (B, 03:30)

• Inflation anxieties:

  "Inflation pressure is building again on the back of these rising energy prices." (A, 01:45)

• Leadership in equities:

  "Semiconductors are the first ones to break out to new all time highs, ending their consolidation from October. And this is a very strong indication that this segment will continue to be the leader in the equity market." (C, 08:07)

• Clear technical caution:

  "We caution investors not to bottom fish in [the software sector] downtrend." (C, 08:34)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Geopolitics & Market Overview: 00:01–03:48
• Inflation & Market Stress: 01:45–02:37
• Asian Market Reactions: 03:48–05:01
• Hungarian Election Results & Impact: 04:33–05:01
• Earnings Season Preview: 05:01–05:45
• Policy & Economic Calendar: 05:50–06:29
• Technical Analysis (Oil & Equities): 06:39–08:47
• Sector Call & Outlook: 08:04–08:43

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Bottom Line

The episode captures a rapid shift from “ceasefire relief” optimism to a “measured risk-off” environment, driven by renewed Middle East tensions, volatile energy markets, and inflation worries. The technical view highlights semiconductors as sector leaders and advises against chasing underperforming software stocks, while geopolitical uncertainty and upcoming data/earnings releases set the tone for heightened market sensitivity in the coming days.

Transcript

[A]

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Julius Baer's Moving Markets podcast on Monday 13th April with me, Bernadette and Erco. So we start the week with something of a deadlock between Iran and the US Again as President Trump said he's going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after talks to end the Iran war ended without a resolution over the weekend. What's the impact on markets so far? Well, I'll be talking to my colleague Mike Rauber about that first and then as usual on a Monday, we'll take a look at the world from a technical standpoint, paying attention, of course, to both oil and equity markets with our head of technical analysis, Mensor Pochinsi. But let's get started with the news roundup. Good morning, Mike. Thanks for joining me today.

[B]

Good morning, Bernadette.

[A]

So we had a lot going on over the weekend with peace talks in Islamabad, but why don't we wind back a bit first to last week's performance. It was a strong week for risk assets. Following the ceasefire announcement early in the week, the that saw oil experiencing one of its largest ever price drops.

[B]

Indeed, major equity indices rebounded sharply, rising between 3%, the Euro Stoxx 50 and 7%. In the case of Japan's Nikkei 225, that's its best week since 2024. The positive backdrop came even as economic data releases showed signs of stress. The EU forewarned of cuts to growth forecasts and on Friday, the University of Michigan sentiment index fell to its lowest level ever. Now, the dollar fell every day last week, global bond yields reversed lower and gold rallied for the third straight week, up over 18% from the lows on 23 March.

[A]

And on Friday, we received inflation figures from Germany and the US showing that inflation pressure is building again on the back of these rising energy prices.

[B]

Absolutely. So German inflation jumped to 2.8%. And now that's shifting attention to Eurozone data out tomorrow Tuesday where inflation is expected to rise to 2.7% in March. Now the US number, it showed that inflation accelerated sharply to 3.3%. Now that's driven by a 21% surge in the cost of gasoline, which was the biggest monthly jump in in records back to 1967, although notably core inflation remained contained. Nevertheless, IMF Managing director Kristalina Georgieva warned that even if the conflict eases now, global prices will take time to return to pre war levels.

[A]

Yeah, and of course that brings us right up to the latest market developments. So in Asia trading this morning, I saw Brent crude up over 7% to nearly $102 a barrel. European gas prices have jumped 18% above €50 per megaw hour. And obviously that move follows these failed U. S Iran talks and that social media post from President Trump warning of this blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

[B]

Absolutely. And the US Central Command actually had to clarify saying that American forces will begin a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports from 10:00am Eastern Time this Monday. So today, notably Bernadette vessels transitioning the Strait of Hormuz to and from non Iranian ports are exempt. In effect, this is an Iran energy embargo halting nearly 2 million barrels a day of Iranian oil and tightening global supply. President Trump also said that the US Navy will interdict ships that have paid Iran a transit toll.

[A]

And with this we're obviously seeing this morning a risk off mode. Perhaps you could give us some more details.

[B]

Yeah, I would call it more of a risk of mood because moves are mostly measured now. Uncertainty of course is high, such as whether the two week ceasefire is already history or not. Now in markets, major Asian equity indices are faring quite well. The Nikkei is down just 0.3% and mainland China is slightly up. But Hong Kong is down around 1%. The US dollar is up against all its major counterparts while gold is down 0.5%. Bond yields are higher now. That's led by Japan where the 10 year yield has risen to 2.49%, the highest since 1997. Of course on concerns that higher energy prices will reignite inflation.

[A]

Okay, let's move to something else that we had over the weekend. Historic elections in Hungary.

[B]

Yes, absolutely. So Prime Minister Viktor Orban, after being for 16 years in power, conceded defeat in Sunday's election with the pro European opposition's clear victory and 2/3 maturity in Parliament expected to help unblock billions of Euros in European funding. Hungary's forint is up 2% against the euro this morning, trading at a four year high.

[A]

Okay then. Besides the conflict in the Middle east, the earnings season is going to be a big focus for us this week. For the U.S. s&P 500, earnings growth is expected to be again double digits plus 12%, right?

[B]

Yes. And for Europe, Bloomberg expects EPS growth of around 10%. Now that of course sets quite a hurdle considering the global growth and inflation uncertainty. Key companies reporting today include Goldman Sachs and lvmh. On Tuesday we get more major banks with Citigroup and JP Morgan. Wednesday asml, Europe's largest company, but also Hermes and Bank of America. And Thursdays we have Charles Schwab, Netflix and from Taiwan, TSMC on the tape.

[A]

Ok, and looking further into the week beyond the earnings seasons, what else do we expect?

[B]

Central bankers and policymakers head to Washington for the World bank and IMF spring meetings where debate will of course focus on how to tackle the oil price jump, shipping blockage and other disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East. In economic news numbers in focus will be China's Q1 GDP and Europe inflation data. And from the US March producer prices and the Beige book. And lastly, Bernadette, US and European equity futures are seen opening around 1% lower overall. Markets start the week under pressure with geopolitics, inflation risks and earnings all set to shape sentiment in the days ahead.

[A]

Super. Thank you very much for bringing us the very comprehensive news update today. Mike, thank you.

[B]

Thank you very much for having me, Bernadette.

[A]

Okay, so now it's time to look at the markets from a technical perspective. Good morning to you, Mensor.

[C]

Good morning, Bernadette.

[A]

So we've heard it already. Oil prices rising again. What's the technical view?

[C]

Yes, the technical view basically is still intact. We view this as a topping process in oil with key support around US$92. If US$92 break, then we have confirmed medium term peak in oil prices.

[A]

All right then. And turning to equities, last week you upgraded equities to bullish again. What was the reason behind this?

[C]

Yes, the reasons are basically quite easy. So first of all in the correction we saw that financials got quite oversold in the correction and it signaled basically that the market is quite concerned. So quite bearish in the short term. Then next was the peak in the US dollar. So the US Dollar failed to sustain its gains. And third but not least, what we saw as well is an improvement in market breadth. So when we look at the market breadth of US equities, we see that they bottomed ahead of the S&P 500 and we have there a bullish divergence. So this means that demand for the average stock has improved ahead of the overall index.

[A]

Okay, and what's the leading segment or indeed sector in the current recovery in equities then?

[C]

Yes, it's very important. So the broadest rally we see is in semiconductors and this is a very broad and strong trend globally. So when we look at the sectors, basically semiconductors are the first ones to break out to new all time highs, ending their consolidation from October. And this is a very strong indication that this segment will continue to be the leader in the equity market. And we recommend investors to have an overweight in this segment. And this is in opposite to software where the underperformance and the decline continues. And there we caution investors not to bottom fish in this downtrend.

[A]

Very clear message there. Thank you very much for joining the show today. Mensor.

[C]

Happy to be here. Thank you, Bernadette.

[A]

Well, that brings us to the end of today's show. Thanks again to my guests. Please come back and join me again tomorrow when I'll be here with more of our experts to keep you in the loop on what's moving markets. Meanwhile, good luck today and in the week ahead. And goodbye for now.

[D]

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