Moving Markets: From Ceasefire Relief to Risk‑Off Reality

Date: April 13, 2026
Host: Bernadette (Julius Baer)
Guests:

• Mike Rauber (Market Commentary)
• Mensor Pochinsi (Head of Technical Analysis)

Episode Overview

This episode of Moving Markets tackles the dramatic shift in global market sentiment following failed US-Iran peace talks, President Trump's threat of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed volatility in oil and risk assets. The team analyzes the impact of these geopolitical developments on markets, inflation, and sector performance. They also review technical market insights, major earnings expectations, and highlight a key political change in Hungary.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Geopolitical Deadlock & Market Impact

• Ceasefire talks between Iran and the US collapsed over the weekend, triggering President Trump's announcement to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, focusing only on Iranian oil but exempting non-Iranian port traffic.

  • Quote:

    “President Trump said he's going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after talks to end the Iran war ended without a resolution.” (A, 00:05)

• Immediate market reaction:

  • Brent crude up over 7% to nearly $102/barrel.
  • European gas prices jumped 18% above €50/MWh.
  • US Central Command specified a blockade on Iranian ports, halting ~2 million barrels/day of Iranian oil, tightening global supplies.
  • Quote:

    "American forces will begin a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports from 10:00am Eastern Time this Monday ... In effect, this is an Iran energy embargo." (B, 03:03)

2. Last Week: Ceasefire Relief Rally versus Economic Worries

• Early-week ceasefire news triggered a major rebound in risk assets:
  • Major equity indices rose sharply (Euro Stoxx 50 +3%, Nikkei 225 +7%—best week since 2024).
  • Oil saw one of its largest-ever price drops as a result.
  • US dollar fell each day last week; gold rallied 18% from late March lows.
• Despite the rally, economic indicators flagged underlying stress:
  • EU flagged potential growth forecast cuts.
  • University of Michigan Sentiment Index fell to an all-time low.
  • Quote:

    “The US dollar fell every day last week, global bond yields reversed lower and gold rallied for the third straight week, up over 18% from the lows on 23 March.” (B, 01:21)

3. Inflation Fears Reignite

• Inflation data (Friday):
  • Germany: CPI jumped to 2.8%.
  • US: CPI accelerated to 3.3%, driven by a record 21% gasoline price surge (the largest monthly increase since records began in 1967).

    “US number showed that inflation accelerated sharply to 3.3%. That's driven by a 21% surge in the cost of gasoline, which was the biggest monthly jump in records back to 1967.” (B, 01:54)

  • Core inflation remains contained, but the IMF warns global prices will take time to normalize, even if conflict eases.

    “IMF Managing director Kristalina Georgieva warned that even if the conflict eases now, global prices will take time to return to pre war levels.” (B, 02:23)

4. Market Sentiment & Early Reactions (Monday Morning)

• Mixed equity responses in Asia: Nikkei down 0.3%, mainland China slightly up, Hong Kong down around 1%.
• Asset flows:
  • US dollar up vs all majors.
  • Gold down 0.5% after big gains.
  • Bond yields rise, led by Japanese 10-year reaching 2.49%, the highest since 1997, driven by inflation fears.
  • Quote:

    “Bond yields are higher now. That's led by Japan where the 10-year yield has risen to 2.49%, the highest since 1997.” (B, 04:07)

• Risk-off mood, but not a full-blown panic:

  “I would call it more of a risk-off mood because moves are mostly measured now. Uncertainty of course is high, such as whether the two week ceasefire is already history or not.” (B, 03:48)

5. European Political Shift

• Hungarian elections:
  • Viktor Orbán conceded after 16 years, pro-European opposition wins a 2/3 majority.
  • Forint rallies 2% vs euro, now at 4-year high.

    “Hungary's forint is up 2% against the euro this morning, trading at a four year high.” (B, 04:56)

6. Corporate Earnings Season

• High expectations:
  • US S&P 500: Expected EPS growth +12%.
  • Europe: Expected EPS growth ~10%.
• Upcoming reports: Goldman Sachs, LVMH (Monday); Citigroup, JP Morgan (Tuesday); ASML, Hermes, Bank of America (Wednesday); Charles Schwab, Netflix, TSMC (Thursday).
  • Quote:

    “Key companies reporting today include Goldman Sachs and LVMH.” (B, 05:25)

7. Economic & Policy Calendar

• World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings in Washington to focus on commodity shocks and war disruptions.
• Key data: China Q1 GDP, Eurozone inflation, US March PPI and Beige Book.
• Futures: US and European equities seen opening ~1% down, reflecting continued risk aversion.

Technical Analysis: Oil and Equities

Oil

• Still seen in a “topping process.”
  • Key level: Support at $92/barrel; a break below would confirm a medium-term peak.

    “We view this as a topping process in oil with key support around US$92. If US$92 break, then we have confirmed medium term peak in oil prices.” (C, 06:50)

Equities

• Recently upgraded to bullish:
  • Financials became “quite oversold,” indicating excessive short-term bearishness.
  • The US dollar failed to sustain its gains.
  • Market breadth in US equities improved, with the average stock rebounding ahead of the S&P 500, creating a bullish divergence.

    “In the correction we saw that financials got quite oversold... The US Dollar failed to sustain its gains... and market breadth of US equities, we see that they bottomed ahead of the S&P 500 and we have there a bullish divergence.” (C, 07:14)

• Sector leadership:
  • Semiconductors are leading the recovery with “broad and strong global trend,” breaking out to new all-time highs.

    “The broadest rally we see is in semiconductors and this is a very broad and strong trend globally... this segment will continue to be the leader in the equity market.” (C, 08:04)

  • Underperformance warning: Software continues to decline; investors are advised not to “bottom fish” in this downtrend.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On geopolitics and market nerves:

  "President Trump also said that the US Navy will interdict ships that have paid Iran a transit toll." (B, 03:30)

• Inflation anxieties:

  "Inflation pressure is building again on the back of these rising energy prices." (A, 01:45)

• Leadership in equities:

  "Semiconductors are the first ones to break out to new all time highs, ending their consolidation from October. And this is a very strong indication that this segment will continue to be the leader in the equity market." (C, 08:07)

• Clear technical caution:

  "We caution investors not to bottom fish in [the software sector] downtrend." (C, 08:34)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Geopolitics & Market Overview: 00:01–03:48
• Inflation & Market Stress: 01:45–02:37
• Asian Market Reactions: 03:48–05:01
• Hungarian Election Results & Impact: 04:33–05:01
• Earnings Season Preview: 05:01–05:45
• Policy & Economic Calendar: 05:50–06:29
• Technical Analysis (Oil & Equities): 06:39–08:47
• Sector Call & Outlook: 08:04–08:43

Bottom Line

The episode captures a rapid shift from “ceasefire relief” optimism to a “measured risk-off” environment, driven by renewed Middle East tensions, volatile energy markets, and inflation worries. The technical view highlights semiconductors as sector leaders and advises against chasing underperforming software stocks, while geopolitical uncertainty and upcoming data/earnings releases set the tone for heightened market sensitivity in the coming days.