Moving Markets – April 9, 2026

Episode: Global equity rally falters after disagreements on ceasefire terms
Host: Helen Freer (Julius Baer)
Guests: Bernadette, Dirko, Carsten Menker

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the initial relief and subsequent volatility across global markets following the announcement—and near-immediate unravelling—of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreement. The team analyzes market reactions, political developments, and energy market dynamics as optimism gives way to uncertainty due to disagreements on ceasefire terms and ongoing Middle East tensions. The discussion provides a succinct breakdown of the cross-asset implications of the conflict, with a special focus on the Strait of Hormuz and energy security.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Reaction to the US-Iran Ceasefire

(00:36 – 02:44)

• Ceasefire Announcement Triggers Relief Rally:
  • The ceasefire, announced Tuesday, intended to halt attacks for two weeks, sparked immediate optimism in global equities.
  • Europe: Stoxx 600 up 3.7%, with travel & leisure (+7%), industrials (+6.6%), and construction (+6.2%) leading.
  • US: Dow Jones +2.85% (best day since April 2025), S&P 500 +2.5%, NASDAQ +2.8%
  • Emerging Markets: Energy-import dependent regions outperformed, up 5% in some ETFs.
• Bond Yields Plunge:
  • European 10-year yields fell 14 bps to 2.94%.
• Relief for Commodities:
  • WTI crude futures dropped >16% to $94.41/bbl, the largest one-day drop since April 2020.
  • “International markets that are more reliant on energy imports outperformed the US with one emerging markets ETF up more than 5%.” (Bernadette, 02:24)

2. Ceasefire Frays Amidst Mutual Accusations

(02:44 – 03:41)

• Iran Alleges US Violations:

  • Iran’s parliamentary speaker accuses the US of violating three points:
    1. Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon
    2. US drone entering Iranian airspace
    3. Denial of Iran's right to enrich uranium
  • Declares bilateral negotiations ‘unreasonable’ under these conditions.

• US Response:

  • Vice President J.D. Vance, in Hungary, labels the ceasefire "messy". Reiterates denial of uranium enrichment to Iran and maintains that Lebanon was never included in the ceasefire scope.
  • Urges that President Trump is “impatient” for progress.

  Notable quote:

  • “He… described the ceasefire as a fragile truce, adding that President Trump was impatient to make progress.” (Bernadette, 03:26)

3. Asian Markets and Renewed Uncertainty

(03:41 – 04:41)

• Equity Drop Continues:

  • Nikkei -0.5%, Kospi -2%, CSI 300 -0.6%

• Oil Prices Rebound:

  • Both WTI and Brent edge up again as uncertainty returns; WTI trading near $97.

• Geopolitical Tension Remains:

  • "Currently, there are only scant signs that the Strait of Hormuz is open in any meaningful way, with Iran flexing its control over this oil artery and demanding tolls for safe passage." (Bernadette, 04:16)
  • President Trump signals US troops will remain until compliance; warns that otherwise “the shooting would begin again.”

  Memorable quote:

  • “Otherwise, to quote him, the shooting would begin again.” (Bernadette referencing President Trump, 04:37)

4. Broader Impact and Data To Watch

(04:41 – 05:31)

• Transport & Energy Sectors Impacted:
  • Delta Airlines expects $2bn higher fuel costs through June due to the Iran war, sticking to cautious full-year forecasts.
  • ExxonMobil lost 6% of global production in Q1 as Gulf operations paralyzed.
• Upcoming Economic Data:
  • US PCE inflation, weekly jobless claims, and final Q4 GDP estimate due.

5. Energy Market Analysis: The Situation as Seen by Carsten Menker

(05:38 – 10:02)

• Oil Market: Immediate Volatility, Underlying Fragility
  • Initial collapse in oil and gas prices reversed as ceasefire erodes; “...the state of Hormuz has not been reopened, so the traders were not able to get busy and send ships through.” (Carsten, 06:32)
  • New tension: Iranian drone attack on Saudi east-west pipeline, but limited damage—“very muted reaction in the oil market once the news broke.” (Carsten, 07:04)
• Interpreting Violations and Political Bluster
  • Ceasefire fragility seen as part of “capital-building” and testing of commitments.
  • “In such situations...violations are part of this process, I would say, at least in the early stages and also to a limited degree.” (Carsten, 07:22)
  • It’s not a “black and white” situation, but “different shades of gray.”
  • Main scenario remains: short, sharp energy price spikes, “but no sustained supply crisis.”
• Underlying Resilience of Energy Systems
  • Some shipping persists, albeit at a fraction of pre-conflict pace, through Iran-guarded routes and with international risk-taking.
  • “This development of Iran's safeguarded trade also illustrates that the geopolitics and the economic layers related to this conflict are separate.” (Carsten, 09:08)
  • Market flexibility outweighs worst-case headlines; the peak of the shock probably “behind us” but volatility here to stay.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the rally:

  • “All of the major regional bourses in Europe closing in positive territory. Travel and leisure stocks led the way, rising over 7%.” (Bernadette, 01:24)

• On the ceasefire’s scope:

  • “Vice President J.D. Vance... described the ceasefire as a fragile truce, adding that President Trump was impatient to make progress.” (Bernadette, 03:26)

• On Strait of Hormuz risks:

  • "There are only scant signs that the Strait of Hormuz is open in any meaningful way, with Iran flexing its control over this oil artery and demanding tolls for safe passage." (Bernadette, 04:16)

• On supply resilience:

  • “What is clear... the system has proven more flexible and more resilient than the headline risks suggested. So the ceasefire overall strengthens the case that the peak of the supply shock is behind us.” (Carsten, 09:26)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Ceasefire triggers global rally: 00:36 – 02:44
• Fraying ceasefire and mutual accusations: 02:44 – 03:41
• Asian markets and oil rebound: 03:41 – 04:41
• Corporate/sector impacts & data watch: 04:41 – 05:31
• Energy market analysis (Carsten): 05:38 – 10:02

Summary Conclusion

The episode traces a roller-coaster 24 hours in global markets, initially buoyed by diplomatic breakthroughs before anxieties resurface over implementation gaps in the US-Iran ceasefire. Energy market volatility lingers as key supply arteries remain in limbo and new incidents occur, but analysts underscore the global system’s unexpected resilience. Investors remain focused on the Strait of Hormuz, energy sector fallouts, and fresh economic data, as the headlines shift from hope back to uncertainty.