Micron's guidance boosts markets

Summary

Podcast Summary: Moving Markets

Episode: Micron's guidance boosts markets
Date: June 25, 2026
Host: Helen Frear (Julius Baer)
Guests: Bernadette (Market News), Carsten Menker (Precious Metals Research)

---

Episode Overview

In this "Moving Markets" daily update, host Helen Frear is joined by Bernadette to discuss the surge in global markets following Micron's upbeat earnings and forward guidance, with a special focus on semiconductor stocks and significant sector moves across the US, Asian, and European markets. Later, Carsten Menker joins to analyze the recent pressures on the gold and silver markets amid shifts in US Federal Reserve policy, currency narratives, and market reactions to political and economic news.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Micron's Guidance and Tech Rally

[00:33–01:33]

• Micron’s Results: Fiscal Q3 earnings exceeded analyst expectations. Micron projected current quarter revenue of $50 billion, markedly above last year's $11.3 billion and ahead of the $43.5 billion forecast.
  • Quote (Bernadette, 00:42):
    "Micron also guided for current quarter revenue of US$50 billion... and this has obviously reignited hopes about AI-fueled growth and seems to have allayed investors concerns about whether we're in a bubble."
• Market Reactions:
  • Micron shares surged almost 16% in after-hours trading.
  • Qualcomm also gained 14% after raising guidance for 2029 non-handset revenue.
  • Other chipmakers (e.g., SA Grandisk, Western Digital, Lam Research, Applied Materials) rallied in response.

2. US Market Performance & Dollar Dominance

[01:33–02:19]

• Equity Indices:
  • S&P 500: Down 0.1%
  • Nasdaq Composite: Down 0.4%
  • Dow Jones: Up 0.35%
• Commodities:
  • Statements from US Treasury Secretary Besant on the dollar's dominance pressured gold and silver.
    • Gold dropped below $4,000/oz, now over 25% below its January peak.

3. Asian Markets & AI Enthusiasm

[02:19–03:34]

• Market Surges:
  • Nikkei: Up 4%
  • Kospi: Up 5.5%
  • CSI 300: Up 1.5%
  • Hang Seng: Down 1.3%
• Notable Moves:
  • SK Hynix plans to raise up to $29.5 billion through a Nasdaq secondary listing, leveraging AI investment appetite.
• Currency:
  • Japanese yen stabilized at 161.73 per US dollar.
• Vietnam Equities Update:
  • MSCI delays downgrading Indonesia from emerging to frontier status, prolonging investor uncertainty.

4. Commodities & Fixed Income

[03:34–04:26]

• Oil Prices:
  • Brent crude fell to $72.39/barrel, back to pre-conflict levels.
  • Strait of Hormuz oil flows at post-conflict highs.
• Market Impact:
  • Falling oil has eased stagflation fears.
  • Bond yields dropping:
    • US 10-year: 4.39%
    • European 10-year: 2.86%

5. European Headlines & German Defence Shift

[04:26–05:33]

• German Defence Contracts:
  • Reports suggest Berlin will scrap six F126 frigates with Rheinmetall for eight smaller A20 frigates from TKMS.
  • Rheinmetall shares fell 18%; TKMS up 16%.
• IFO Business Climate:
  • June: 85.6 (vs. 85.5 expected).
• Pan-European Stoxx 600:
  • Flat on the day.

6. Anticipated Economic Data

[05:33–06:25]

• US Data Watch:
  • May PCE price index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), Q1 GDP, personal income, durable goods, and initial jobless claims.
• ECB Bulletin:
  • To be published.
• Market Futures:
  • Indicate a positive open led by tech optimism.

---

Gold & Silver Markets Discussion

Carsten Menker Interview
[06:34–12:18]

7. Precious Metals—Recent Downturn & Key Drivers

[06:34–07:41]

• Peak-to-trough:
  • Gold and silver "very far away from the peaks they reached at the end of January."
• Fed Chair Change:
  • New Chairman Kevin Walsh is "much more concerned about inflation than previously thought."
    • Quote (Carsten, 07:44):
      "The resilience of the economy adds an element of persistence to the price pressure. From that perspective, the precious metal markets and Kevin Walsh are certainly not off to the best start. If you want, it's a Walsh new reality."

8. Narrative Shifts—Dollar Strength & De-dollarization

[07:41–08:50]

• Earlier bullishness fuelled by:
  • Expectations of falling US interest rates and a weakening dollar.
  • Concerns over "de-dollarization" and dollar debasement.
• These narratives have now reversed as the US economy shows resilience and the dollar strengthens.

9. Gold & Silver Sell-off Catalyst

[08:50–09:26]

• Trigger:
  • US Treasury Secretary Besant's comments on dollar dominance and global returns to USD invoicing (Venezuela, Iran).
    • Quote (Carsten, 08:56):
      "The trigger seemed to be these statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant... this really marked the starting point of the sell off."

10. Market Dynamics—Flows vs. Fundamentals

[09:26–10:21]

• Sharp Price Moves:
  • Indicative of trading "flows" dominating fundamentals, especially when technical thresholds are broken (e.g., gold at $4,000).
  • "Flows are often driven by a trend... and this trend is clearly reversed."

11. Investor Behavior & Fed Policy

[10:21–10:58]

• Precious metal investment demand, especially in the West, is closely tied to US monetary policy:
  • Investors buy when rates fall and the dollar weakens.
  • "Buyers have become sellers" as policy direction reversed.

12. Outlook for Gold and Silver

[11:01–12:13]

• US Monetary Policy:

  • Julius Baer does not expect the Fed to hike rates further, contrary to money market pricing.

• Gold:

  • Expect medium-term demand recovery once policy clarity returns.
  • Central bank buying remains supportive; constructive long-term outlook.

• Silver:

  • Cautious, as speculative excesses still hang over the market; prefer to remain neutral.

• Quote (Carsten, 11:51):
  "I think a lot of damage has been done and it will likely take some time for the gold market to find its footing. Record highs remain out of reach for now, but we expect prices to regain lost ground in the longer term."

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Micron also guided for current quarter revenue of US$50 billion... this has obviously reignited hopes about AI-fueled growth and seems to have allayed investors concerns about whether we're in a bubble."
  — Bernadette [00:42]

• "The resilience of the economy adds an element of persistence to the price pressure... precious metal markets and Kevin Walsh are certainly not off to the best start."
  — Carsten Menker [07:44]

• "The trigger seemed to be these statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant... this really marked the starting point of the sell off."
  — Carsten Menker [08:56]

• "Buyers have become sellers... this is particularly the case in the Western world where investment demand is very closely linked to US monetary policy."
  — Carsten Menker [10:24]

• "Record highs remain out of reach for now, but we expect prices to regain lost ground in the longer term, which is why we remain constructive on gold. For silver, remain neutral—this is not yet the time to buy."
  — Carsten Menker [11:51]

---

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Micron & Tech Rally: [00:33–01:33]
• Broad US Market & Dollar Impact: [01:33–02:19]
• Asian Markets & Notable Equity Updates: [02:19–03:34]
• Oil, Bonds, Commodities Update: [03:34–04:26]
• European Defence & IFO Data: [04:26–05:33]
• Key Macro Data to Watch: [05:33–06:25]
• Gold/Silver Deep Dive: [06:34–12:18]

---

Tone and Language

The episode maintains a professional but conversational tone, offering concise, data-driven insights blended with expert analysis. Both markets and macro themes are presented in a straightforward but engaging manner, making the material accessible for listeners seeking actionable context.

---

Summary Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive roundup of the powerful market moves catalyzed by Micron’s bullish guidance, extending across US, Asian, and European equity and commodity markets. An in-depth discussion on precious metals reveals the interplay of economic narratives, central bank policy direction, and technical flows driving the recent sell-off in gold and silver, along with a cautiously optimistic outlook for the longer term. The content is ideal for listeners who want to quickly understand major market events and their investment implications.

Transcript

[A]

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Julius Baer's Moving Markets podcast. It's Thursday 25th June, and my name is Helen Frear, filling us in on the latest in financial markets today. I will speak first of all this morning to Bernadette and Dirko. And my second guest today will be Carsta Menker and we'll be talking about the gold and silver markets. So that is coming up shortly. But over to you first of all, Bernadette, for the market news. Good morning.

[B]

Good morning, Helen.

[A]

And let's start with the big earnings news from Micron. Overnight, I've seen that Asian markets have soared on the back of these.

[B]

Yes, indeed, the chipmaker reported fiscal third quarter results that topped analysts expectations. But that wasn't the only news. Micron also guided for current quarter revenue of US$50 billion. That's up from 11.3 billion a year earlier and above the 43.5 billion forecast. And this has obviously reignited hopes about AI, fueled growth and seems to have allayed investors concerns about whether we're in a bubble. So shares of micron surged almost 16% in yesterday's extended trading. And fellow semiconductor stock Qualcomm also gained 14% after raising guidance for its non handset revenue in 2029 to 40 billion. That's up from a prior projection of just 22 billion. And we saw other chip names such as SA Grandisk, Western Digital, Lam Research and Applied Materials all rallying on the back of these announcements.

[A]

And how was the US Market more broadly yesterday?

[B]

Well, yeah, US equities were mixed in yesterday's trading session. Stocks were struggling for direction after the sell off. On Tuesday, we saw both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite falling in the regular sessions so that the S and p was off 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite off 0.4%. The blue chip Dow Jones, however, did buck the trend closing the session 0.35% higher. We did have some statements about the dominance of the US Dollar by US Treasury Secretary Besant yesterday, and that did put further pressure on gold and silver prices. We saw gold falling below the $4,000 level and it's now more than 25% below its January peak. But I think you're going to have a big conversation with Carsten about that.

[A]

Yes, I will. Now, I already mentioned the rally in Asia this morning. Can you give us a few more details there, Bernadette, what stands out to you?

[B]

Yeah, well, this positivity has been clear in Asian markets overnight. The Nikkei up 4%. The Kospe up over 5.5%. Also adding to sentiment was an announcement from South Korea's SK Hynix of plans to raise up to $29.5 billion through a secondary listing on Nasdaq to capitalize on unending investor appetite for AI stocks. We also saw a strong gain for the CSI 300 up over 1.5%. The main exception to that pattern has been the hang Seng down 1 1/3% when I last look. Currently on calls for a one year low, but otherwise sentiment has been very positive. And the Japanese yen has also stabilized overnight to 161.73 per US dollar. A bit of country news, Helen. MSCI has delayed its decision on the potential downgrade of Indonesian equities from emerging to frontier market status to later this year. It's going to be in November. Now, citing the need to monitor the implementation and effect of reforms, our analysts view this news negatively. They think it's likely to prolong uncertainty for investors and they maintain neutral view on the Indonesian market.

[A]

All right, and what's the latest on oil, Bernadette? When I looked at my screens earlier, I saw Brent crude oil prices finally back at their pre conflict levels.

[B]

Yes, you're right, Helen. Oil prices have fallen again overnight to $72.39 per barrel, which is almost exactly in line with the level immediately before the US and Israel began their strikes on Iran. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to ramp up with a number of vessels getting through at its highest level since the conflict. And more broadly, the oil price decline has eased fears about a stagflationary shock and aggressive rate hikes to deal with any inflation. And this has boosted U.S. treasury bonds. So yields saw very large falls actually on both sides of the Atlantic. We saw the 10 year US treasury yield fall back to 4.39%. In Europe, yields on 10 year bonds reached a three month low of 2.86%.

[A]

And speaking of Europe, we had some news out of Germany yesterday with reports circulating that it will abandon its plans to build six warships. What can you tell us on this story?

[B]

Yes, well, I don't think we've heard anything official from the government yet, but according to multiple media reports, Berlin is planning to scrap a multi billion euro project to build F126 frigates with Rheinmetall and instead they're going to buy eight smaller A20 frigates from the German company TKMS. So Rheinmetall saw its share price plummet 18% on these reports. That's their steepest intraday fall since April 2025. And conversely, TKMS saw its shares rally 16. The stocks Europe Aerospace and Defence ETF traded 1.1% lower yesterday. Sticking with Germany, we also had the IFO Institute's Business Climate Indicator that rose to 85.6 in June versus 85.5 expected. That's the second monthly gain after falling back in March and April. And just for the indices sake, the pan European Stoxx 600 index finished largely flat on the day.

[A]

Okay, just before we move on then, what should we be looking out for in the day ahead?

[B]

Well, we have the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, so May's personal consumption expenditures price index reading will come out today. Economists expect the headline index to rise 0.5% on a monthly basis, slightly higher than April's 0.4% gain. And it should be 4.1% on a yearly basis, again larger than April's rise of 3.8%. Traders will also be watching out for the first quarter GDP reading readings from May's personal income and preliminary durable goods orders indices, as well as initial jobless claims from the week ended June 20. Meanwhile, the ECB will also publish their economic bulletin today. And as I look at the futures screens, Helen, the futures markets are reacting positively to Micron's news and Asia's rally markets expected to open higher today. That's it from me.

[A]

Very good. Thank you very much, Bernadette, for the great roundup this morning.

[B]

Thanks for having me.

[A]

And now on to you. Carsten, good morning. Firstly, hello.

[C]

Good morning.

[A]

Now let's talk about precious metals. What is going on here? Prices remain under pressure and are now very far away from the peaks they reached at the end of January or prior to the day of Kevin Walsh's nomination as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Last week Walsh held his first meeting. So how much does he have to do with this sell off?

[C]

Well, I think to understand what is going on in the precious metal markets at the moment, we need to remind ourselves of the narratives that prevailed at the beginning of the year. There was a broad based consensus that slowing US Growth prompts the US Federal Reserve to lowest interest rates. Plus, the US Dollar was weakening and it was supposed to weaken further. There was also a lot of talk about de dollarization, about dollar debasement, for example. There was also talk about the US Federal Reserve not being as independent anymore under a new chairman following all the political pressure President Trump has been putting on the central bank.

[A]

Okay, but this seems to be Long gone.

[C]

To a certain extent it is. So the US economy remains much more resilient than initially expected. Today it is showing higher growth and higher inflation. And the Fed under new Chairman Kevin Walsh seems to be much more concerned about inflation than previously thought. And yes, of course there is an energy component which should be transitory, but the resilience of the economy adds an element of persistence to the price pressure. From that perspective, the precious metal markets and Kevin Walsh are certainly not off to the best start. If you want, it's a wash new reality.

[A]

What about the de dollarization and the dollar debasement? We've never bought into this, have we?

[C]

No, no we haven't. I think in the precious metal markets these were narratives that fueled the bullish market mood around the turn of the year. And well, having looked at precious metal markets for some time now, we know that it's these kind of narratives which from time to time tend to have quite a pronounced influence on prices.

[A]

Let's talk about yesterday's sell off. What was the trigger from your perspective, Carsten?

[C]

Well, I think very clearly, and Bernadette mentioned that already the trigger seemed to be These statements by U.S. treasury Secretary Besant who said, well, the dominance of the dollar is essential. Venezuela is coming back to the dollar system and Iran would be invoicing in dollars. So this really marked the starting point of the sell off. And of course this is directly related to these old narratives of de dollarization and dollar debasement. Basically reversing this.

[A]

If you see market moves like we did yesterday, when prices at some point just drop. How do you make sense of something like that?

[C]

Well, I think this is very important because such sharp and swift moves are always pointing to a dominance of flows over fundamentals, in particular when key thresholds are being broken like 4,000 for gold or 60 for silver. And flows. Also to remind ourselves, flows are often driven by a trend and this trend is clearly reversed. Or they are driven by narratives such as the de dollarization, the dollar debasement, which also have reversed. So this explains a bit the power and the dynamics of such moves. And simply speaking, on the way up, the trend has been the friend of the market and now it's more the foe. That said, the fundamental outlook has undeniably also deteriorated.

[A]

Related to the US Federal Reserve, you mean?

[C]

Exactly, because of the Federal Reserve, as this impacts the behavior of investors. Very simply, buyers have become sellers. And this is particularly the case in the Western world where investment demand is closely, very closely linked to US monetary policy. It's mirrored in the buying and the selling of physically backed products or physically backed ETFs. Investors buy when US interest rates are falling and the US dollar is weakening and they sell when rates are rising and the dollar is strengthening.

[A]

Okay, so what's our outlook then?

[C]

Well, firstly on US monetary policy, our view is unchanged for now. We do not expect the Fed to raise interest rates. This is a bit in contrast to what's priced into money markets at the moment. So from our point of view, investment demand should pick up again, particularly for gold. Once clarity and conviction about U.S. monetary policy returns for silver, the case is less clear. It is still feeling the after effects of the speculation fueled frenzy, which I would say should keep investors on the sidelines. Gold, on the other hand, should furthermore be supported by central bank buying, which we still see as the strongest structural force in the market.

[A]

That still sounds quite optimistic.

[C]

Yes, but don't get me wrong, I think a lot of damage has been done and it will likely take some time for the gold market to find its footing. Record highs remain out of reach for now, but we expect prices to regain lost ground in the longer term, which is why we remain constructive on gold for silver, remain neutral and from our point of view, this is not yet the time to buy.

[A]

Wonderful. Thanks a lot Carsten. Always great to hear your latest thoughts. Thanks for joining me.

[C]

Thanks for having me.

[A]

So that's it for today. Thank you again to Bernadette and Karsten and to you, our listeners, for tuning in. I hope you enjoyed the show. If you did, then make sure you subscribe if you haven't already. And please join us again tomorrow when I'll be back with more of my colleagues to talk about what is moving markets. Until then though, have a great day everyone and bye for now. The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research. Please refer to www.juliusbear.com forward/legal podcasts for further other important legal information.