Risk back on? Earnings, central banks, and the next leg higher

Summary

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Moving Markets – Episode Summary

Podcast: Moving Markets
Host: Julius Baer
Episode: Risk back on? Earnings, central banks, and the next leg higher
Date: April 27, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Jan Bob is joined by Roman Canciani (Market Analyst) and Markus Wachter (Technical Analyst) to unpack the latest developments shaping the global markets. The discussion covers resilient equity performances in the US and Japan, European market challenges, central bank meetings, the AI boom, and technical outlooks for major stock indices and gold. The conversations provide valuable insights on macro trends, sector performances, and crucial data points that investors should watch in the coming week.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Macro Backdrop and Market Movers (01:16–06:38)

• US: Mixed Consumer Signals
  • Retail sales in March jumped by 1.7%—the largest rise in over three years—suggesting continued consumer demand despite higher fuel prices. (02:01)
  • However, consumer sentiment is weakening and inflation expectations are ticking up, indicating growing concerns about the cost of living.

    “Despite the current willingness to spend, it paints a picture of a consumer who is cautiously optimistic, perhaps.”
    — Roman Canciani (02:25)

• Equities: AI & Earnings Drive US Resilience
  • US equities rallied, led by NASDAQ reaching new highs amid ongoing AI enthusiasm.
  • Strong earnings season: 84% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates, with year-on-year earnings growth above 15%.

    “This reinforces the narrative of corporate resilience.”
    — Roman Canciani (02:44)

  • The Dow Jones underperformed, signaling vulnerability among cyclical sectors.
• Europe: Weighed Down by Geopolitics and Confidence
  • European equities declined due to heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Business and consumer confidence continued to deteriorate, especially in Germany and France.
  • Defensive sectors like utilities and telecoms outperformed, indicating investor caution.
• Fixed Income & Credit Markets
  • Government bond yields rose across major markets, leading to negative returns for US Treasuries.
  • Credit markets fared better due to strong corporate fundamentals.

    “U.S. treasuries had negative returns as stronger economic data and rising inflation signals diminished their appeal as a safe asset.”
    — Roman Canciani (03:58)

• European Debt Dynamics
  • Greece is set to relinquish its status as the most indebted Eurozone nation to Italy by year end—a notable reversal owing to Greece’s fiscal discipline and Italy’s rising debt ratio.

    “It’s a striking turnaround, showcasing the impact of sustained reform efforts.”
    — Roman Canciani (04:27)

• Currency Movements
  • The US dollar remained firm amid robust economic data and rising inflation expectations, dampening hopes of imminent monetary easing.
  • The Japanese yen neared 160 against the dollar, prompting concerns from officials about speculative excess and intervention risks.
  • The Euro was pressured by weak confidence data, while Sterling saw mixed moves.

2. Key Events on the Horizon (05:33–06:38)

• Pivotal week ahead with policy decisions from the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, ECB, and Federal Reserve. No rate changes are anticipated, but forward guidance will be critical.
• Earnings reports from “the Magnificent Seven” US tech giants will be closely scrutinized, particularly regarding AI-driven margins and valuation sustainability.
• Asian markets have started the week strongly, buoyed by fresh diplomatic moves in the Middle East and a tech sector rally.
• Notably, German May consumer confidence hit its lowest since February 2023.

  “The accompanying guidance will be absolutely crucial.”
  — Roman Canciani (05:41)

3. Technical Market Insights with Markus Wachter (06:49–09:24)

• S&P 500: Strong Historical Signal
  • The index rallied each of the past four weeks, recently crossing above its 40-week moving average with 3%+ weekly gains in three consecutive weeks.
  • Historically, such a pattern (last seen nine times) has been followed by a median 34% return over the next 50 weeks.

    “That adds to our positive view of the equity markets.”
    — Markus Wachter (07:26)

• Nasdaq & Semiconductors
  • Both have seen robust, four-week rallies with pronounced upside momentum. Semiconductors in particular continue to outperform.

    “The NASDAQ has the uptrend intact and shows strong momentum... The rally in semiconductors [is] persistently outperforming the market.”
    — Markus Wachter (08:12)

• Gold Price Action
  • Gold has been consolidating between $4,600 and $4,800 but is showing signs of recovery from a past sell-off—weekly lows are rising, and the 40-week moving average is intact.

    “We are also seeing the 40 week moving average intact. And that leads us to the conclusion that gold is going further upward on the recovery.”
    — Markus Wachter (09:13)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On US Consumer Sentiment and Spending:

  “Despite the current willingness to spend, it paints a picture of a consumer who is cautiously optimistic, perhaps.”
  — Roman Canciani (02:25)

• On Corporate Earnings Strength:

  “This reinforces the narrative of corporate resilience.”
  — Roman Canciani (02:44)

• On Greece vs. Italy Debt Reversal:

  “It’s a striking turnaround, showcasing the impact of sustained reform efforts.”
  — Roman Canciani (04:27)

• On Technicals and S&P 500 Outlook:

  “We see a median return over the following 50 weeks of around 34% in the S&P 500.”
  — Markus Wachter (07:26)

• On Gold’s Uptrend:

  “So that indicates recovery there in the market.”
  — Markus Wachter (09:04)

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Important Timestamps

• 01:16 – Market wrap introduction and focus areas
• 02:01 – US macro: Retail sales vs. consumer sentiment
• 02:44 – US equities and earnings season
• 03:23 – European market developments
• 03:58 – Fixed income and credit market performance
• 04:27 – Europe’s shifting debt landscape (Greece vs. Italy)
• 05:03 – Currency market highlights
• 05:33 – Key upcoming events and earnings
• 06:49 – Technical analysis segment with Markus Wachter
• 07:02 – S&P 500 technical outlook and historical returns
• 07:59 – Nasdaq and semiconductor momentum
• 08:47 – Gold’s technical pattern and outlook

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Takeaways

• AI and strong corporate earnings are keeping US equities buoyant, even amidst consumer caution.
• Geopolitical risks and falling confidence weigh heavily on Europe, while Asian markets spot early-week optimism.
• This week’s central bank meetings and tech earnings are pivotal for market direction.
• Technical indicators point to continued equity momentum and a possible gold recovery.

If you missed the episode, this summary captures the depth and tone of the analysis, highlighting major trends and practical insights for the week ahead.

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Transcript

[A]

Good morning from Julius Baer. Today is Monday the 27th of April. My name is Jan Bob and this

[B]

is Julius Baer's Moving Markets Podcast. With U.

[A]

S Iran talks going nowhere and barely

[B]

any oil flowing through the Strait of

[A]

Hormuz, markets have quickly shifted their focus back to one thing, the relentless boom in AI. I'll be unpacking that and the rest of the latest market news with Roman Canciani shortly. Then it's over to Markus Wachter from our technical analysis team for his Monday update, breaking down what the charts are telling us. But before we get going, I'd also like to flag the latest View beyond podcast, which was published over the weekend. Against the backdrop of sticky inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and the global data center build out private infrastructure is back in the spotlight as a source of resilience and long term growth. Our colleague William Fong is joined by Daniel McCormick from Macquarie Asset Management for a deep dive. The episode is called Private Infrastructure, Resilience and Growth Amidst Volatility, and you'll find

[B]

it on the Moving Markets podcast channel.

[A]

Now though, let's catch up with the latest market news.

[B]

Good morning to you, Roman.

[C]

Good morning, Jan. Roman, let's dive straight

[A]

into what moved the markets. Last week. We saw a bit of a mixed

[B]

bag globally, didn't we?

[C]

Absolutely. While US And Japanese markets demonstrated remarkable resilience, especially in equities, Europe presented a somewhat gloomier picture. Globally, we observed an interplay between robust growth figures and resurfacing inflationary pressures.

[B]

Well, we. Roman, then let's start with the macro side.

[A]

The data coming out of the US

[B]

Seems quite positive, with a surprisingly strong retail sales number. Yet we also heard about weakening consumer sentiment. How do we reconcile those seemingly contradictory signals?

[C]

That's the core challenge right now. US retail sales jumped 1.7% in March, the biggest leap in over three years. This suggests consumers are still willing and able to spend, fueled partly of course, by higher fuel prices, but also demonstrating solid underlying demand. However, at the same time, consumer sentiment is declining and crucially, inflation expectations are ticking upwards. People are becoming concerned about the cost of living again, and that concern is starting to bite. Despite the current willingness to spend, it paints a picture of a consumer who is cautiously optimistic, perhaps.

[B]

Interesting. And how did this play out in the equity markets then?

[C]

US equities generally pushed forward, led by the NASDAQ hitting new records. Enthusiasm for AI continues to be a powerful force, and the earnings season so far has been exceptionally Strong. According to FactSet, around 84% of S&P 500 companies have beaten expectations so far with earnings growth exceeding 15% year on year. This reinforces the narrative of corporate resilience. There, however, the Dow Jones lagged, indicating some vulnerability among more cyclical industries.

[A]

Okay, then, let's turn to Europe because

[B]

the story there appears quite different.

[C]

Indeed, European equities saw a noticeable downturn last week. Geopolitical risks, specifically concerning the Middle east and the crucial shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz, contributed significantly to the sell off, deteriorating business and consumer confidence, particularly in Germany and France. Fascinating. Further dampened investor spirits. Defensive sectors like utilities and telecoms outperformed, highlighting some cautiousness among investors.

[B]

While we're talking about cautiousness, let's shift to fixed income. Were bonds able to offer a kind of safe haven?

[C]

Not entirely. Government bond yields actually rose across major markets. U.S. treasuries had negative returns as stronger economic data and rising inflation signals diminished their appeal as a safe asset. Credit markets were comparatively relatively resilient, outperforming Treasuries, thanks to strong corporate fundamentals and healthy earnings.

[B]

There was also some interesting news regarding debt levels in Europe. Can you elaborate on that, Roman?

[C]

Certainly. Greece is poised to lose its title as the Eurozone's most indebted nation to Italy by the end of this year, according to official budget data and officials. Greece has made impressive strides in reducing its debt through fiscal discipline and economic growth, whereas Italy's debt ratio is unfortunately continuing to climb. It's a striking turnaround, showcasing the impact of sustained reform efforts.

[B]

Yeah, it's impressive indeed. Now, Roman, turning to currencies. The US Dollar held firm, I understand.

[C]

Yes. The dollar benefited from the robust U.S. data and elevated inflation expectations, reducing expectations for immediate monetary easing. The Japanese yen, however, continued to weaken, nearing the 160 level against the dollar. Officials have expressed concern about speculative activity there and oil price volatility, hinting at a possible intervention. The Euro was pressured by weaker confidence indicators, while Sterling received mixed signals.

[A]

All right.

[B]

Finally, Roman, looking ahead, what are the key events investors should be monitoring today and later this week?

[C]

This is a pivotal week. We have a flurry of central bank meetings. The bank of England, the bank of Japan, the ECB and the Federal Reserve all deciding on interest rates. And while no changes are currently anticipated, the accompanying guidance will be absolutely crucial. Also, we have a heavy dose of earnings reports with results from the Magnificent Seven taking center stage. Investors will be scrutinizing these reports for evidence that the high valuations are justified, particularly regarding AI investments and margins as sustainability. However, the start of the week has been good so far with Asian markets rallying on reports of a new effort to find a solution to the Middle east conflict and especially Asia tech rallying hard and maybe. Lastly, we just got the latest GFK German consumer confidence numbers for May and they came in lower than expected, actually on the lowest levels since February 2023. That's it from me.

[B]

All right, so another busy and exciting week ahead. Thank you very much, Roman, for the roundup today.

[C]

Thank you very much, Jan. Always a pleasure.

[A]

And now Markus, good morning to you as well. Great to have you on the show today.

[D]

Good morning, Jan. Pleasure to be here.

[A]

The S&P 500 has staged quite a

[B]

rally over the past weeks. What is your take on the current situation?

[D]

Yeah, The S&P 500 has been up the last week and also like the previous three weeks, we've seen the previous three weeks we've seen the S&P 500 crossing above the 40 week moving average again and at the same time doing gains of 3% or more for each week. We have analyzed the historic pattern and we have seen that if this happens, basically it occurred nine times in the past. We see a median return over the following 50 weeks of around 34% in the S&P 500. And basically that adds to our positive view of the equity markets.

[B]

All right, that sounds encouraging.

[A]

We are also seeing or in particular

[B]

seeing strong upside momentum in the Nasdaq recently semiconductors have been rising strongly. How's your technical view on that?

[D]

Yeah, similarly to the S&P 500 we've also seen like that rise in the Nasdaq and also in the semiconductors. The so they are both up like the fourth week in a row with very strong gains. The NASDAQ has the uptrend intact and shows strong momentum. And there is the rally in the semiconductors which actually continue to outperform or persistently outperform the market. So we see that themes to continue in the future.

[A]

And lastly Markus, this month gold seems

[B]

stuck in the 4,600 to 4,800 US dollar range. What is your current take on the precious metal?

[D]

Well, we've seen the sell off in gold in the past and basically now we're seeing that recovery from the sell off. We have seen a fourth week also there of higher lows in the gold market. So the prices are not the lows the market is doing. Each week is higher than the previous week. So that indicates recovery there in the market. And we are also seeing the 40 week moving average intact. And that leads us to the conclusion that gold is going further upward on the recovery.

[B]

Very nice. Great. Thanks very much, Markus. Really good to hear your latest thoughts. As always.

[D]

Thanks for having me, Jan.

[A]

And that is all for today. A big thank you to Roman and Markus for sharing their perspectives, and thank you all for tuning in. If you enjoyed today's show, don't forget

[B]

to subscribe if you haven't already. And please also leave us a review on whichever platform you like to listen on.

[A]

And do join us again on Tuesday, when Roman will be back, but this

[B]

time as your host and with a fresh lineup of experts talking about what is moving markets. Until then, good luck today and goodbye for now.

[E]

The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research. Please refer to www.juliusbear.com forward/legal podcasts for further other important legal information.