SpaceX overtakes Amazon in market cap

Summary

Moving Markets – Episode Summary

Episode Title: SpaceX overtakes Amazon in market cap
Date: June 17, 2026
Host: Helen Frear (Julius Baer)
Guests: Jan Bopp (Market roundup), Dario Messi (Fixed income), Matja Reshta (Equities)

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Overview

This episode of Moving Markets centers on SpaceX’s dramatic IPO, its $60 billion acquisition in the AI sector, and the company’s rapid ascent to briefly surpass Amazon and Microsoft in global market capitalization. The discussion also covers broader equity and bond market dynamics, the upcoming FOMC decision and global central bank meetings, and the investment implications of a potential US-Iran agreement.

Tone: Professional yet conversational, with focus on timely market insights, investment perspectives, and the intersection of technology and finance.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. SpaceX’s Transformative Moves and Market Impact

• SpaceX-acquired Any Sphere for $60 billion:
  • Signified a strategic shift from pure aerospace to a broader tech platform, notably entering high-growth AI markets through Any Sphere’s successful coding tool, Cursor.
  • “SpaceX is evolving into a broader technology platform rather than remaining purely an aerospace company.” — Jan Bopp [01:06]
  • Acquisition follows SpaceX’s earlier XAI integration, building a “competitive AI ecosystem.”
• IPO and Market Cap Milestone:
  • SpaceX shares surged 17% on debut, briefly overtaking both Amazon and Microsoft, with a market cap nearing $3T, and closing as the world's fifth largest company after paring gains.
  • “This places SpaceX now as the fifth largest company globally.” — Jan Bopp [02:00]

2. Equity Markets: A Nuanced Picture

• US Market Rotation:
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined due to tech pullback (chipmakers led the fall), while the Dow Jones hit all-time highs driven by cyclical/old economy stocks.
  • Market’s moves attributed to the anticipated US-Iran agreement that could boost Middle East oil output, leading to lower energy prices—already causing a 5% drop in Brent crude below $80/bbl (the longest losing streak in a decade).
  • “Expectations are already easing the pressure on energy prices and support cyclically sensitive sectors.” — Jan Bopp [02:33]
• Global Sentiment:
  • US investor mood is cautiously optimistic—higher cash levels signal profit taking, but expectations for global growth and profits have risen to three-month highs.
  • “So the mood is broadly optimistic, just slightly less exuberant than before.” — Jan Bopp [04:25]
• Europe:
  • Cautious optimism persists despite Germany’s sharp improvement in forward-looking sentiment (ZEW survey); current conditions remain weak.
  • UK inflation data came in below expectations (2.8%), with Eurozone inflation and US retail sales data pending.
  • “A story of cautious optimism then.” — Helen Frear [05:15]

3. Fixed Income: Focus on the Fed and Communication Shifts

• Central Bank Lineup:
  • Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and the US Federal Reserve all meet this week.
  • “It’s a big lineup this week.” — Dario Messi [06:30]
• FOMC Meeting & New Fed Chair:
  • Kevin Warsh’s first appearance as Fed chair is closely watched. No policy change expected today, but Warsh previously advocated for rate cuts (now less likely), and the market anticipates a “hawkish hold”—firm tone on inflation, but no action.
  • “The market still rather sees a hike later this year... definitely need to acknowledge that the job market in the US showed… some signs of reacceleration.” — Dario Messi [06:30]
• Shift in Fed Communication:
  • Warsh might offer “less guidance, more surprises,” possibly reducing forward-looking projections (the “dots”), which could mean higher volatility and a slightly higher term premium for bonds, though no dramatic shift expected immediately.
  • “Less guidance, more surprises…this would typically translate into more volatility.” — Dario Messi [08:44]
  • No immediate changes recommended for bond portfolio strategy; duration overweights still have value.

4. Equities: IPO Market and Geopolitical Tailwinds

• SpaceX IPO as Market Test:
  • Despite initial fears, SpaceX’s $75B IPO didn’t sap overall equity liquidity or risk appetite—demand for equities remains robust, outpacing supply.
  • “The market passed the test remarkably well...even though issuance activity is picking up sharply this year, demand for equities remains strong.” — Matja Reshta [10:13]
• US-Iran Agreement’s Impact:
  • A potential deal could stabilize oil trade, lower energy prices, and boost sentiment/earnings across Europe and Asia, where energy costs have weighed on performance.
  • “A deal would likely be a meaningful positive for equities, particularly outside the United States.” — Matja Reshta [11:34]
• Rotation Opportunity Beyond AI:
  • Signs of a broader catch-up ahead as leadership shifts away from solely AI-linked winners, benefiting cyclical sectors previously lagging due to high energy prices and geopolitical stress.
  • “Lower energy prices could create a catch-up potential for parts of the market that have lagged since the start of the war.” — Matja Reshta [12:56]
• Investment Stance (2H 2026):
  • Stay invested in equities but broaden exposure beyond US AI stocks to include non-US markets (Europe, Japan, emerging markets), as valuations and risks improve.
  • “It is not a call to abandon the winners, it’s a call to broaden out exposure…The US still has the advantage when it comes to earnings growth, but the opportunity set is becoming much wider than it was a few months ago.” — Matja Reshta [13:03]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “SpaceX is evolving into a broader technology platform rather than remaining purely an aerospace company.” — Jan Bopp [01:06]
• “SpaceX market capitalization rose by as much as 17%...briefly surpassing Amazon and Microsoft...an extraordinary moment.” — Jan Bopp [02:00]
• “So the mood is broadly optimistic, just slightly less exuberant than before.” — Jan Bopp [04:25]
• “Remember, [Fed Chair Warsh] was also quite outspoken for rate cuts before he started…but the market still rather sees a hike later this year.” — Dario Messi [06:30]
• “Less guidance, more surprises…this would typically translate into more volatility.” — Dario Messi [08:44]
• “The market passed the test remarkably well...demand for equities remains strong.” — Matja Reshta [10:13]
• “A deal would likely be a meaningful positive for equities, particularly outside the United States.” — Matja Reshta [11:34]
• “This is not a call to abandon the winners, it’s a call to broaden out exposure.” — Matja Reshta [13:03]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:39] SpaceX acquires Any Sphere, AI direction, and IPO impact (Jan Bopp)
• [02:00] SpaceX market cap surge, broader equity market rotation, and oil price moves (Jan Bopp)
• [04:25] Investor sentiment and European outlook (Jan Bopp)
• [06:30] FOMC preview, Fed Chair Warsh's stance, and implications for fixed income (Dario Messi)
• [08:44] Changing Fed communication and bond market volatility (Dario Messi)
• [10:13] SpaceX IPO and market liquidity, IPO market strength (Matja Reshta)
• [11:34] US-Iran deal implications—energy, equity, and market rotation (Matja Reshta)
• [13:03] Equity investment positioning for the second half of the year (Matja Reshta)

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a dynamic snapshot of June 2026’s market landscape, spotlighting SpaceX’s rapid transformation into a technology giant and the resulting ripple effects across global markets. Panelists urge investors to remain invested while broadening exposure beyond a narrow set of AI-related winners, noting improving prospects in Europe and Asia due to easing energy costs and geopolitical risk. The interplay between central bank policy communication, oil price shocks, and investor sentiment forms key themes, setting the stage for the remainder of the year.

Transcript

[A]

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Julius Baer's Moving Markets podcast. It's Wednesday 17th June and my name is Helen Frear. I'll be speaking first of all this morning to my colleague Jan Bopp, who has a roundup for us of the latest news in financial markets. Then I'll be getting Dario Messi's latest thoughts on developments in bond markets, particularly in light of today's FOMC meeting. And finally, Matyreshta will join me and he has an update on equity markets today. But let's start with the market news. As always.

[B]

Good morning, Jan. Good morning, Alan.

[A]

Let's start with one of yesterday's big headlines. Because it combines several big themes at once. SpaceX, fresh from its IPO, didn't waste any time. It announced that it was acquiring Any Sphere, the maker of cursor for for US$60 billion. That's a bold move, not just in size, but also in terms of direction, expanding from rockets into high growth AI markets. How should we interpret this step, do you think, Jan?

[B]

Yeah, it was big news indeed. And it shows how quickly technology boundaries are dissolving. SpaceX is evolving into a broader technology platform rather than remaining purely an aerospace company. The story of any Sphere, founded only four years ago, isn't less impressive. The company has grown at remarkable speed. In fact, it was one of Silicon Valley's fastest growing startups ever, reaching roughly 2.6 billion in revenue with its AI coding tool cursor. So this is an established fast scaling business. Combined with the earlier integration of XAI, SpaceX is clearly assembling a competitive AI ecosystem.

[A]

And this all comes just days after the company's blockbuster ipo, which in itself reshaped the rankings of the world's largest firms in real time.

[B]

Yeah, absolutely. SpaceX market capitalization rose by as much as 17% in yesterday's trading to nearly US$3 trillion, briefly surpassing Amazon and Microsoft. And although it later paired gains to close up 4.8%, falling back behind Microsoft, it was still an extraordinary moment. I mean, this places SpaceX now as the fifth largest company globally.

[A]

Okay, let's look at the broader equity market now, because beyond this SpaceX story, the picture was more nuanced.

[B]

Yeah, that's right. It was a mixed session. The S&P 500 declined largely due to pullback intact. The Nasdaq fell about 1.1% with chip makers leading the decline after very strong rally. At the same time, we saw a rotation into more economically sensitive sectors which pushed the Dow Jones, which has more exposure to those old economy stocks to new all time highs. And this is mainly the market's reaction function to developments in the Middle east where an agreement between the US and Iran seems more likely by the hour and is due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. And traders are anticipating that it will not only trigger the release of millions of barrels of oil stored on tankers inside the Persian Gulf, but also boost output from the Middle East. And these expectations are already easing the pressure on energy prices and support cyclically sensitive sectors.

[A]

Yes, so Brent crude fell more than 5% yesterday, dropping below $80 per barrel. And that's now its longest losing streak in about 10 months. Lower energy prices also eased inflation concerns, which in turn supported bonds. Yields declined across regions. However, there seems to be quite a build up ahead of today's FOMC decision.

[B]

And importantly, check Kevin Walsh's first press conference. Yes, according to a survey, about 40% of fund managers now anticipate rate hikes over the next year. And many expect a so called hawkish hold today, meaning no immediate change, but a firm tone on inflation. So markets are really focused on the messaging. Today's press conference could really set the tone for the next several weeks.

[A]

And how are investors positioned going into this? Are we seeing nervousness or confidence?

[B]

Well, a bit of both, I'd say. Cash levels have etched up recently according to the bank of America fund manager survey, suggesting some profit taking. But at the same time, expectations for global growth and corporate profits have reached three month highs. So the mood is broadly optimistic, just slightly less exuberant than before.

[A]

Sentiment in Europe seems more cautious, even though there have been some encouraging signals, particularly from Germany.

[B]

That's right. The German CETIW survey showed a sharp improvement in expectations. That reflects optimism about easing geopolitical tensions and potentially lower energy costs. The region has been hit pretty hard by the energy shock. However, the current condition index declined further highlighting that the present situation remains weak.

[A]

Okay, so a story of cautious optimism then.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. And I think it's fair to say that this is also reflected in markets Overall this morning. U.S. futures and Asian markets are trading slightly higher. The tone is steady, but all eyes will clearly be on the Fed later today. Other than that, we've already received UK inflation data which came in below expectations at 2.8%. And this will be followed by Eurozone inflation data and U.S. retail sales later today. So geopolitics and the Fed remain front and center and Maybe, who knows, SpaceX can make it under the top four companies in terms of market cap Today everything seems possible Helen. And with that, back to you.

[A]

Very good. Thanks very much, Jan. Great to speak to you again today.

[B]

Thanks for having me.

[A]

Now let's focus on fixed income and move on to you. Dario, good morning and welcome.

[C]

Hello. Good morning, Helen.

[A]

Last week I know you talked on the podcast about the ecb. This week we just had the bank of Japan yesterday and we have the bank of England and the Swiss national bank coming up. But let's start talking about the Fed whose meeting concludes today. What are you expecting here, Dario?

[C]

Well, I mean, first, yes, it's a big lineup this week. You just mention it on the Fed policy wise. I don't expect any change today. That's also what's broadly anticipated as well as priced by markets at the same time. It will be an interesting meeting. In any case, we have a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, and he promised a lot of changes. Remember, he was also quite outspoken for rate cuts before he started, but he will not have the backing of the board for going after that. And I'm not even sure if he himself wants just that now. In fact, the market still rather sees a hike later this year. That's not what we are expecting, but we definitely need to acknowledge that the job market in the US Showed again, we talked about this, some signs of reacceleration. And if this is going to continue, we would also need to change our assessment here. And just to be clear, I think it's really the labor market that would give here the impulse for any policy action going forward, not the oil price, which seems to be less of an issue for now. So in summary for today at least, no policy action.

[A]

Okay, so no policy action. What are you focusing on then?

[C]

Well, I think most interesting will definitely be how Warsh communicates. Jan said it before, it's his first appearance. And second, if he has anything to say in terms of future Fed communication, he was also here quite outspoken that he wants to radically change that with much less phet guidance, leaving more room for surprises. Think of the FOMC policy rate projections, so called dots, or more broadly also how the Fed communicates with the public. I don't think that he can change everything on his own. Having said this, he is still the chair, so he certainly has some possibilities, at least already on his own communication style.

[A]

All right, and what does this mean for bond markets?

[C]

So generally, if we think about less guidance, more surprises, this would typically translate into more volatility. And in such an environment you would expect a higher term premium, or to put it simple, a higher required compensation for nominal claims. So higher yields, basically all else equals. It's difficult to measure such an effect, but I would argue that the effect is not dramatic or would not be dramatic. In fact, we also didn't see a big jump in this term premium back when it was clear that Wash takes the helm at the Fed term premium did already a substantial level shift back in 2022. So for investors, we therefore don't see the need to really adopt your bond portfolio strategies and still see some value in the duration over weights.

[A]

Wonderful. Thank you very much, Dario. Really interesting to speak to you as always.

[C]

Thank you for inviting me, Helen.

[A]

And finally, let's talk more about equities. Good morning, Matthia.

[D]

Good morning, Helen.

[A]

So I mean, I've talked to Jan already a bit about SpaceX and its market debut being the largest IPO in history. Many saw this as a major test for equity markets. What's your take, Matthieu, on how markets handled it?

[D]

So I think the market passed the test remarkably well. So going to the IPO, there were concerns that the 75 billion US dollar deal could absorb too much liquidity and put pressure on the on the broader equity markets. But the opposite happened. So the company successfully attracted capital without disrupting the broader market rally and risk appetite remained intact afterwards. This is very much in line with what we highlighted a week ago here on the podcast. So even though issuance activity is picking up sharply this year, demand for equities remains strong. So for this year, overall demand is still slightly outpacing issuance and the US Market remains in what we will call a de equitization phase, where companies are returning more capital through buybacks than they are issuing through new shares, although the gap is much smaller than over the past two decades. Looking ahead, we still have several large private companies preparing for public listings over the coming months. So far the market is showing that it can comfortably digest this new supply as long as earnings remain supportive and liquidity conditions stay healthy. The reopening of the IPO market should be viewed as a sign of confidence with rather than a warning signal.

[A]

And at the same time, we're seeing signs of progress on a US Iran agreement. If a deal is signed this week, what could that mean for equity markets?

[D]

So a deal would likely be a meaningful positive for equities, particularly outside the United States. So the main transition channel here is energy. So the markets are increasingly pricing in a possibility of a reopening and normalization of trade through the Strait of Hormuz, which has already pushed oil price lower and improved sentiment across Europe and also Asia. Private investors that matters because higher energy prices have been one of the biggest headwinds for many non US markets this year. Europe in particular is much more exposed to imported energy than the us so lower oil prices would support consumers, improve margins for energy intensive industries and also reduce inflation concerns. That's why we have already seen cyclical sectors such as industrials, autos and construction stocks start to outperform following the announcement of this interim agreement with what is also interesting is that this could mark the beginning of a broader market rotation. So until recently, performance has been heavily concentrated in a relatively small group of AI linked stocks or winners. But leadership often changes after momentum breaks down and we recently experienced exactly that. So lower energy prices could create a catch up potential for parts of the market that have lacked since the start of the war. So while AI remains a powerful structured team, a successful Iran deal could create the conditions for a much broader equity rally going forward.

[A]

If returns are broadening out, then what does that mean in terms of your investment stance for the second half of the year?

[D]

So we continue to think investors should stay invested in equities, but the composition of returns is likely to look different from what we have seen so far this year. The first kind of five and a half months of the year was dominated by a relatively Narrow group of AI beneficiaries, particularly in the U.S. so we don't think that team is over. Zoning's momentum remains strongest in the US supported by this ongoing AI investment cycle and very resilient corporate profits. So in fact our broader market regime assessment remains one of expansion which earnings still acting as the key driver for equities. But having said that, you know the backdrop for non US equities is improving. So lower energy prices, easing geopolitical risks and also more attractive valuations create a more supportive environment for Europe, Japan and several emerging markets. We therefore favor a more balanced allocation between US and non US equities rather than relying exclusively on a handful of technology names. So in other words, this is not a call to abandon the winners, it's a call to broaden out exposure. And the US still has the advantage when it comes to earnings growth, but the opportunity set is becoming much wider than it was a few months ago.

[A]

Very good. Thank you Matja for the update. Great to have you on the show.

[D]

Thanks for having me Helen. Always a pleasure.

[A]

So that is it for today. Thanks again to today's guests and to you, our listeners, for tuning in. I hope you enjoyed the show. If you did and you haven't subscribed yet, Then don't forget to do that. And please join us again tomorrow when I'll be back with more of my colleagues and I'll be getting their latest thoughts on what's moving markets. So have a great day everyone, and bye for now. The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research. Please refer to www.juliusbear.com legal podcasts for further other important legal information.