Tech sell-off widens as Asian markets dive

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Tech Sell-off Widens as Asian Markets Dive

Podcast: Moving Markets
Host: Bernadette (with Jan Bopp and Mensor Pochinsi)
Date: June 8, 2026

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Overview

This episode dives into the aftermath of a dramatic global equity sell-off, with particular focus on the sharp decline in technology and semiconductor stocks both in the US and Asia. The team analyzes the knock-on effects for currencies, commodities, and outlooks for the week ahead. Guests provide both macroeconomic and technical perspectives, with actionable insights for investors facing heightened volatility, rising rates, and escalating geopolitical risks.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. US Labor Market Surprise

• Strong Job Growth:

  • Non-farm Payrolls in May surged by 172,000, double consensus expectations.
    • "Non farm Payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, which is roughly double what economists had expected." (Jan, 01:25)
  • Revisions to prior months added ~100,000 jobs, showing continued labor market momentum.

• Unemployment & Wages:

  • Unemployment steady at 4.3%.
    • "The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, which reinforces that picture of a stable and still fairly tight labour market." (Jan, 02:00)
  • Wage growth at 3.4% still lags inflation (3.8%), meaning real earnings pressure continues.
    • "Wage growth is lagging inflation and yeah, it's not great for the US consumer." (Jan, 02:23)

• Implications for Central Bank Policy:

  • Markets now see a 70%+ probability of a December Fed rate hike.
  • Higher yields: Two-year US Treasury yield above 4.1%, ten-year back above 4.5%.
  • The US dollar resumed strengthening, with the index at the top end of its 12-month range.

2. Global Equity Markets Under Pressure

• US Equities:
  • S&P 500 fell 2.6%, halting a 10-week streak of gains.
  • NASDAQ suffered a 4.2% drop, with heavy selling in tech/semiconductors:
    • "Intel was down 11%, AMD down 11%, Broadcom down 8%, Nvidia down 6%." (Jan, 03:16)
• Rumors:
  • Reports that Meta may pursue an equity raise added to sector uncertainty.
• Europe:
  • Dropped less than the US (down 0.3–0.7%) as most markets closed before the US sell-off intensified.
  • Switzerland was resilient, finishing up by 0.3%.
• Asia:
  • Mirrored US tech sell-off and felt impact from Middle East tensions.
  • Kospi (South Korea) fell over 8%, triggering a brief trading halt.
  • Japan’s Nikkei down 4.3%.
  • Hong Kong and mainland China indices down around 2%.
    • "Asian equities under massive pressure this morning. South Korea's Kospi dropped sharply at one point, down more than 8%, triggering a 20 minute trading halt by the stock exchange only shortly after market open." (Jan, 05:11)

3. Commodities: Gold, Oil, and Geopolitics

• Gold:
  • Fell sharply (down ~3.2%) to just above $4,300/oz, now below key moving average.
  • Next support levels under close watch, signaling volatility.
• Oil:
  • Surged nearly 5% ($97/bbl) amid escalating Israel-Iran hostilities and Middle East instability.
    • "Oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle east over the weekend. Brent jumped nearly 5% to over $97 per barrel this morning." (Jan, 04:40)

4. Key Events to Watch This Week

• US Inflation Data (Wednesday):
  Closely watched for indications of future Fed path.
• ECB Policy Meeting (Thursday):
  Market consensus expects another rate hike.
• SpaceX IPO (Friday):
  Anticipated as potentially the largest IPO ever, with a $2 trillion valuation. Investors wary about timing as such deals can signal market tops.
  • "Historically, such blockbuster IPOs have sometimes coincided with peaks in market enthusiasm." (Jan, 06:02)

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Technical Analysis: Market Perspectives

1. US Tech and Semiconductors

• Correction or Trend Change?
  • Mensor Pochinsi believes the move is a justified pause, not a major top:
    • "We think it's a well deserved pause... the uptrend was quite consistent so we had consistent buying and usually this does not happen at the peak." (Mensor, 07:01)
  • Key signals (momentum, lack of speculative froth) indicate tech/semis may resume their rally and set new highs later in 2026.

2. Currency Markets

• US Dollar:
  • Strength holding, but until the DXY moves above 101, still viewed as peaking.
    • "We think as long as the US dollar index remains below 101, we still have the idea that we are in peak US dollar cycle." (Mensor, 08:24)
• Japanese Yen:
  • Weakness continues, especially as USD/JPY breaks 160 (a key long-term resistance).
  • More concern about yen devaluation than USD strength; yen also sliding vs. CHF, EUR, and EM currencies.
    • "The risk really on the Japanese yen is that it even starts to weaken against the US dollar not because the US Dollar is a strong currency, but just because the Japanese yen really weakens a lot further." (Mensor, 09:18)

3. Gold, Silver, and Oil

• Technical Ratings:
  • Ratings remain bullish for gold/silver and bearish for oil, but all are near critical levels.
    • Gold and silver inversely correlated with oil.
    • Gold: support around $4,300, still bullish unless a further breakdown occurs.
    • Silver: holding major support near $65–70.
    • Oil: viewed in a topping process, long-term bearish below $92.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Payrolls Shocking the Market:
  "The US labor market isn't just holding steady, Bernadette, it's still generating momentum."
  — Jan (01:36)

• On Tech Correction:
  "Most likely technology stocks and especially semiconductors are taking a well deserved pause and are most likely to resume their uptrend and rise to even new all time highs later this year."
  — Mensor (07:41)

• On The Yen's Risk:
  "Japanese yen is weak anyway... the risk really on the Japanese yen is that it even starts to weaken against the US dollar not because the US Dollar is a strong currency, but just because the Japanese yen really weakens a lot further."
  — Mensor (09:11)

• On Oil & Geopolitics:
  "The trigger was Israel striking targets in Iran after missile attacks, which has raised fears that this fragile ceasefire could eventually collapse."
  — Jan (04:46)

• On the SpaceX IPO:
  "Historically, such blockbuster IPOs have sometimes coincided with peaks in market enthusiasm. So there's a bit of unease around what that signals for sentiment."
  — Jan (06:09)

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Important Timestamps

• [01:25] – Jan on surprising US labor numbers
• [03:16] – Breakdown of major tech stock declines
• [04:40] – Oil price moves and Middle East escalation
• [05:11] – Asian market meltdown and trading halt in Korea
• [06:02] – SpaceX IPO preview and its market implications
• [07:01] – Mensor’s technical view on tech correction
• [08:24] – Technical signals on USD and currencies
• [09:40] – Gold, silver, oil ratings and outlook

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Tone & Closing

The episode maintained a brisk, analytical tone balancing immediate market reactions, technical insights, and the bigger picture risk themes. Clear, actionable points were delivered for investors, with both caution and optimism present depending on the asset class and region.

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For more in-depth CIO perspectives, the team recommends the companion “View Beyond” episode: “Thoughts from Our CIO on How to Invest in a Crisis.”

Transcript

[A]

Good morning everyone and welcome to the Moving Markets podcast on Monday 8th June with me, Bernadette and Dirko. Joining me on today's podcast are my colleague Jan Bopp and our head of Technical Analysis, Mensor Pochinsi. But before we get into today's podcast, I'd just like to let you know that our latest View beyond podcast went live this weekend. An extremely timely catch up with our group Chief Investment Officer Yves Bonson. Robin Pomeroy joined me from the World Economic Forum's Radio Davos. And together we sat down with Yves last week to discuss the complicated question of just how to invest during a crisis. Yves shared his wisdom with us and the conversation was not restricted purely to the current Middle east crisis. The global financial crisis was also featured heavily. To pick up some tips from a man with 30 years of CIO experience, why not tune in after today's show? The podcast is called Thoughts from Our CIO on How to Invest in a Crisis. But now back to the very latest financial markets news. And this morning, Jan is bringing us the main stories.

[B]

Good morning to you, Jan. Good morning, Bernadette.

[A]

Lots of things to talk about this morning, but why don't we start chronologically with the big macro surprise from last Friday. The latest US labour market data clearly caught markets off guard. On the upside, what stood out to you?

[B]

Yeah, Bernadette, it really was a strong set of numbers. Non farm Payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, which is roughly double what economists had expected. Double? And it wasn't just a one off. Revisions to prior months added almost another hundred thousand jobs. The US labor market isn't just holding steady, Bernadette, it's still generating momentum.

[A]

Yeah, exactly. The rule of Thumb is around 50,000 jobs per month just to absorb new entrants into the workforce. So anything above that suggests real expansion.

[B]

Yeah, that's exactly the point. Now the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, which reinforces that picture of a stable and still fairly tight labour market.

[A]

Yeah, there's a nuance here on wages. Annual wage growth came in at 3.4%, while the latest inflation reading is 3.8%. So in real terms, earnings are still under pressure.

[B]

Yeah, that's the catch. Wage growth is lagging inflation and yeah, it's not great for the US consumer.

[A]

And how is all of this feeding into central bank expectations?

[B]

Well, markets are now rising in a more than 70% chance that the Fed will raise rates in December. Labor market is fine. Even more than that, that means they can focus on Inflation, which is still elevated. So you US inflation data on Wednesday will be a big focus for markets. All of that means bonds came under pressure. We saw treasury yields move significantly higher with the two year yield climbing above 4.1% and the 10 year back above 4.5%.

[A]

And the US dollar joined the move higher as well. The dollar index is now back at 100, which is the upper end of the last 12 months trading range. Equity markets on the other hand, didn't take this well, did they?

[B]

No, not at all, Bernadette. The S&P 500 dropped 2.6%, missing what would have been a 10th consecutive week of gains. The NASDAQ fared even worse, falling 4.2% on Friday. And that was because tech stocks, in particular semiconductor stocks, came under massive selling pressure. Intel was down 11%, AMD down 11%, Broadcom down 8%, Nvidia down 6%. An interesting moment then for news to league that Meta is considering an equity raise.

[A]

Yeah, I'm sure we'll hear more about that rumor during the day. Europe also saw declines, though less dramatic.

[B]

That's right, Bernadette. European markets closed before the US sell off accelerated, so losses were more contained, generally between 0.3 and 0.7%. Switzerland stood out, managing to eke out a small gain of 0.3%, a rare patch of green on an otherwise very red screen.

[A]

Okay, why don't we bring commodities into the picture? There were some notable moves there too. Gold fell Quite sharply, down 3.2% I think. Last time I looked it was trading just above $4,300 an ounce, below the 200 day moving average. I'll ask Mensur a bit more about gold in a minute. But meanwhile, oil however, is telling a different story, isn't it?

[B]

Yeah, very much so. Oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle east over the weekend. Brent jumped nearly 5% to over $97 per barrel this morning. The trigger was Israel striking targets in Iran after missile attacks, which has raised fears that this fragile ceasefire could eventually collapse.

[A]

Turning to Asia, markets started the new week not only echoing last Friday's US tech sell off, but also these rising geopolitical tensions.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. Asian equities under massive pressure this morning. South Korea's Kospi dropped sharply at one point, down more than 8%, triggering a 20 minute trading halt by the stock exchange only shortly after market open. Japan's Nikkei is down 4.3%. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese indices are also trading roughly 2% lower.

[A]

Okay, so quite a fragile global backdrop to start the week. But looking ahead, what should investors focus on?

[B]

Jan, there are a few key events. We already mentioned US Inflation data on Wednesday. Then of course we have the ECB's policy decision on Thursday where the central bank is expected to hike rates.

[A]

Yes. And of course then we have an event that's not macroeconomic but potentially just as headline grabbing or probably even More so. The SpaceX IPO.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. That's expected for Friday. It's could become the largest stock market debut in history with a valuation near US$2 trillion, which would make it the seventh largest company by market cap right from the beginning. Historically, such blockbuster IPOs have sometimes coincided with peaks in market enthusiasm. So there's a bit of unease around what that signals for sentiment.

[A]

Yes, I guess whether it marks a new beginning or a turning point is something markets will be watching very closely, I'm sure. Thank you Jan for the lovely roundup this.

[B]

Thanks Bernadette for having me. Always great to be on the show.

[A]

And now it's time to look at the markets from a technical perspective and we're going to take a tour of asset classes today. Good morning to you Mensor.

[C]

Good morning, Bernadette.

[A]

Why don't we start with the US equities mentor. They saw strong selling in technology and semiconductor stocks on Friday. Does that mean we've seen the peak for the year?

[C]

Yes, that's the number one question. Of course you know we have seen this year strong gains or concentrated gains in technology and especially some not to stocks. And on Friday they we heard before from Jan they suffered heavy selling. The big question now is is this the start of a larger correction or is this a well deserved pause? We think it's a well deserved pause. The reason for this is basically that the uptrend was quite consistent so we had consistent buying and usually this does not happen at the peak. Secondly, we see that the new highs are confirmed by long term momentum which is quite strong. And last but not least, when we look at the speculative activity, let's say in leveraged product, we don't have the signs of bubble territory or excessive risk taking. So most likely technology stocks and especially semiconductors are taking a bell deserved pause and are most likely to resume their uptrend and rise to even new all time highs later this year.

[A]

Okay, we'll have to watch out for that then. Meanwhile, turning to currencies, the US Dollar is improving and the dollar yen is trading above the key psychological level of 160. What's key in currency markets for you at the Moment.

[C]

Yes. I mean in the dollar space. Basically when you look at the dollar index, it's still surprising to see that even after this correction it's still well behaved. So it's still in this range. So we think as long as the US dollar index remains below 101, we still have the idea that we are in peak US dollar cycle. So the US Dollar should resume declining, especially against higher yielding emerging market currencies. The Japanese yen is quite special in the case that basically the weakness in the yen is masked a bit by the US dollar. So US dollar, Japanese yen I think, we think 160 is the key level here to watch. But please remember the Japanese yen is weak anyway. So the Japanese yen is weak against Swiss franc, the euro and emerging market currencies. So we think the risk really on the Japanese yen is that it even starts to weaken against the US dollar not because the US Dollar is a strong currency, but just because the Japanese yen really weakens a lot further. So we're watching really closely what happens here at 160 because this is a very long term resistance level in the Japanese yen.

[A]

Okay, and then I said I was going to ask you about gold. We've seen gold and silver declining while oil is rising. Have the ratings changed?

[C]

No, the ratings have not changed, but it's very close. So you remember we have talked about this a few times. So gold and silver. Gold and silver are extremely invert correlated to oil. So when oil rises we see the metals declining and both gold and silver are testing major support levels but we keep the ratings still intact. And the view is still that the oil is in a topping process. So decline below 92 will here most likely confirm a long term peak. And in gold and silver we are watching basically the key support levels. So let's say in Gold around 4300 where we are right now and silver is actually below or trading around its major support levels around 6570 US dollar but we keep the ratings unchanged. Bullish for them and bearish for oil.

[A]

Clear message there. Thank you very much as ever for joining the podcast today. Mensour.

[C]

Happy to be here. Thank you, Bernadette.

[A]

Well, that brings us to the end of today's show. I hope you enjoyed it. Thanks again to my guests. Please do come back again tomorrow and join Lucia Ciculovic and she will be here with Mike Rauber and more of our experts to keep you in the loop on what's moving markets. Meanwhile, good luck today and in the week ahead and goodbye for now.

[D]

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