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- [00:02]
A
Hello and welcome to this edition of Julius Baer's Moving Markets the View beyond podcast, a series where we delve a little bit deeper into the current topics on investors minds. And I know what's been on a lot of people's minds recently, and that is the heat in today's episode. I'm delighted to be joined by my colleague Dr. Damien Ng, who is an analyst in our Next Generation research team. And we're talking today about the topic of heat waves. What our rising temperatures mean for the population, regulation and also of course, for investors. Just before we start, I would ask you to please listen to the end of the podcast to make sure that you hear the important legal information. So welcome Damien. Thank you very much for joining me today.
- [00:52]
B
Thank you very much for the invitation, Helen.
- [00:56]
A
Temperatures are a little lower this week. We're recording this in Zurich in late June and I think I saw that today we'll see a high of around 26 degrees. But the recent heat wave across Europe is definitely still very much a topic of conversation. Why are heat waves becoming such a major public health concern? Damien?
- [01:18]
B
Well, you know, I think the first thing to recognize is that heat is often underestimated as a health risk. When people think about climate related disasters, they think about floods, storms or wildfires because they are dramatic and visible on television screens.
- [01:35]
A
Right.
- [01:36]
B
But heat is different. It doesn't destroy buildings, but it can be incredibly dangerous for the human body. When temperatures get very high, our bodies have to work much harder to stay cool. The heart has to pump more blood to the skin, we lose more fluids and there's additional stress on multiple organs. For healthy young people, that's uncomfortable. For an older person or someone with underlying health conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, kidney disease or respiratory conditions, it can become generally life threatening. So this isn't just a climate story. It is really becoming one of the biggest public health and healthy aging challenges of our time.
- [02:24]
A
And the latest data apparently suggests that there were more than 10,000 excess deaths during the June heat wave. Can you talk a bit about this excess deaths measure and why this is important?
- [02:38]
B
Right. Excess deaths is a very, I mean, it's a really important concept because heat is often an invisible contributor to mortality. Very few people die with heat wave written on a death certificate. Instead, someone may suffer a heart attack, a stroke, dehydration, kidney failure, or worsening respiratory disease during a period of extreme heat. Now what excess mortality does is to compare how many people actually died during a given period versus how many we would normally expect to die at the Time of the year. So to put this into perspective, European mortality monetary data recorded around 10,650 excess deaths in a single week during the late June heat wave. So what is particularly striking is that over 9,000 of those 10,000 deaths, Helen, that you just mentioned were among people age 65 and over. So that really highlights how heat is increasingly becoming a healthy aging issue. So for me, the most important message is that heat doesn't just make us uncomfortable, it can shorten lives, particularly among older adults and people already living with a chronic illness.
- [04:10]
A
And scientists say these extreme temperatures would have been virtually impossible without the human induced climate change. Right?
- [04:19]
B
Yes, that's what many studies are finding. Researchers recently estimated that human induced climate change accounted for about 65% of the heat related deaths they examined across a number of European cities, effectively tripling the death toll compared with the world without additional warming we have created. Scientists now have sophisticated ways of comparing today's climate with a world that hadn't experienced decades of warming, human greenhouse gas emissions. Their conclusion is that many of these record breaking heat waves have become dramatically more likely because of climate change. So what that means from a health perspective is that we're no longer talking about rare, once in a generation events. We're talking about heat exposure becoming a recurring health risk. And even small increases in average temperatures can have surprisingly large effects on health outcomes because the human body operates within relatively narrow thermal limits.
- [05:29]
A
What are the implications then for healthcare systems in Europe? We just aren't used to this kind of heat. But if heat waves now become more frequent and more severe, the setup will need to change, won't it?
- [05:42]
B
That's a very good question, Helen. I think healthcare systems will increasingly need to treat heat waves the same way they treat infectious disease outbreaks. Historically, hospitals have prepared for winter pressures. Increasingly, they will also need to prepare for summer pressures. During heat waves, we tend to see more emergency admissions, particularly among older adults, people with cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and kidney problems. But I actually think the bigger opportunity is in prevention. How do we identify vulnerable individuals before temperatures spike? How do we check on elderly people living alone? How do we help people stay hydrated and cool before they end up in an emergency department? So the future of healthcare isn't just treating health related illness, it is about preventing it.
- [06:40]
A
Beyond the consequences for our health. What economic impacts are heat waves and other climate related disasters having on Europe?
- [06:49]
B
One way to think about this is that health and the economy are deeply connected. So when people are exposed to extreme heat, they become less productive, more likely to take Sick leave and more likely to require medical care. Now, outdoor workers are particularly exposed, whether that's construction workers, transport workers, or agricultural workers. At the same time, health care costs rise, energy demand increases because of cooling needs, and businesses can face disruptions. So when we talk about heat waves, we are not just talking about a weather event. We're talking about something that affects workforce health, productivity, healthcare spending, and overall economic resilience. So healthier population is ultimately a stronger economy.
- [07:41]
A
And what about the way many cities are currently set up? I've heard a lot of cities are described as heat islands. Can you tell us a bit about this concept?
- [07:52]
B
Sure. I mean, this is one of my favorite examples because it's something people can actually feel. If you've ever walked out of a park and onto a city street during a hot day, you've experienced a heat island. Now, what is fascinating is that the temperature difference can be substantial. So during heat events, parts of a city can be several degrees Celsius warmer than nearby rural areas, simply because concrete, asphalt, and buildings absorb and retain heat. The nighttime aspect is particularly important. Our bodies need cooler temperatures to recover, preferably between 15 to 19 degrees Celsius, because sleep quality falls when nights are too warm. And poor sleep itself has negative effects on cardiovascular health, metabolism, and overall well being.
- [08:45]
A
What about sponge cities? What are they and how could they help European cities become more resilient to both heat waves and flooding?
- [08:54]
B
Right. I love the idea of sponge cities because they show how one solution can solve multiple problems. The basic concept is making cities behave more like nature. Instead of covering everything with concrete, you introduce more trees, parks, wetlands, permeable surfaces, and green roofs that absorb water and reduce heat. The beauty of this approach is that it helps in two ways. When there's heavy rainfall, these systems absorb water and reduce flood risk. When there's extreme heat, they provide cooling, shade and greener environments that are simply healthier and more pleasant to live in. And we know that access to green spaces is linked not only to physical health, but also to better mental well being.
- [09:48]
A
Looking ahead, then, what sort of investments in buildings, infrastructure, and energy systems will be necessary if we're going to be able to adapt to a hotter climate?
- [10:00]
B
Right. Enough. Helen, If I had to summarize it in one sentence, I would say we need to build for the climate we're going to have, not the climate we used to have. So that means homes that stay cooler during heat waves. It means hospitals and care homes designed to protect vulnerable people. It means more trees, more shade, more green spaces, and more resilient urban infrastructure. It means energy systems that can support growing cooling demand without creating even more emissions. But most importantly, I think it means investing in human resilience. When we talk about longevity, we often focus on medical breakthroughs, new drugs, and extending lifespan. One reason adaptation has become so urgent is that Europe is now considered the fastest warming continent on Earth. So we're not talking about distant problem anymore. We're talking about redesigning our cities, healthcare systems, and homes for the reality we are already experiencing. All of those are very important. But if we want people to live longer and healthier lifestyles, we also need environments that support health. Climate resilience is increasingly becoming part of the longevity conversation.
- [11:22]
A
Okay, thank you very much, Damien. Really interesting. Maybe just to finish off, do you want to leave us with your main takeaway?
- [11:29]
B
Right. I think the big takeaway is that heat waves are no longer just a summer inconvenience. They're becoming a major determinant of health. And if longevity is about helping people live not just longer, but healthier lives, then protecting populations from extreme heat may become one of the most important public health interventions of the coming decades.
- [11:54]
A
All right, very good. Thank you very much for joining me today, Damien. It's been really interesting to talk to you today.
- [12:00]
B
Of course. Thank you very much for having me, Helen.
- [12:04]
A
So that concludes this week's View beyond podcast. I hope you enjoyed this episode and that you'll join us again for the next edition next week. In the meantime, remember to check out our daily Moving Markets podcast, which is available every weekday on the same channel. Bye for now.
- [12:29]
C
The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research. Please refer to www.juliusbear.com legal podcasts for further other important legal information.