US tech rally continues while Europe lags and oil climbs

Summary

Moving Markets Podcast (Julius Baer)
Episode: US Tech Rally Continues While Europe Lags and Oil Climbs
Date: May 12, 2026
Host: Bernadette Anderko
Guests: Roman Canciani (Head of Product & Investment Content), Dr. Damian Ng (Next Generation Research Analyst)

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Episode Overview

This episode delves into the contrasting trajectories in global financial markets, focusing on continued strength in US tech stocks, the lagging European equities, and surging oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions. The show also spotlights recent developments in healthcare following a concerning hantavirus outbreak on an Atlantic cruise ship, exploring implications for both public health and investors.

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Key Market Highlights

European Equity Markets: Muted and Divergent

• Overall Performance:
  • "European equities finished Monday relatively unchanged. The pan European Stoxx 600 was flat."
    (Roman Canciani, 00:54)
• Standouts:
  • Italy's FTSE MIB rose, showing resilience
  • France's CAC Garante dipped
  • "The real story… was the weakness in luxury goods. That sector dropped significantly 3.4% and is currently the worst performing on the Stoxx 600 this year."
    (Roman Canciani, 01:09)
  • Impacted names: LVMH, Hermès, Burberry
  • Commodity sector benefitted: "Miners benefited from increased precious metal prices."
    (Roman Canciani, 01:19)

ECB Policy: Rate Hike Uncertainty

• Diverging Predictions:
  • "Recent surveys suggest economists now anticipate two rate hikes this year... But real investors have actually priced in almost three hikes already… Our own economists are leaning towards one single increase only potentially in June."
    (Roman Canciani, 01:53)
  • Key driver: Persistent inflation linked to Middle East conflict
  • Weakening economic outlook could delay action

Oil Markets: Geopolitical Turbulence Drives Prices

• Sharp Price Increase:
  • "Oil prices jumped over 3% yesterday and continued to climb this morning after President Trump indicated the ceasefire with Iran is effectively failing. Brent is currently trading around US$105."
    (Roman Canciani, 02:47)
• Supply Fears:
  • Disrupted operations in the Strait of Hormuz
  • "CEO of Saudi Aramco… stated approximately 1 billion barrels of oil supply have been lost over the past two months."
    (Roman Canciani, 03:17)
  • Tankers turning off tracking increases shipping risks

US Markets: Tech Remains the Engine

• Indices:
  • "US Stocks started the week higher with both The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closing at record highs."
    (Roman Canciani, 03:43)
• Tech Leadership:
  • "Nvidia… finished up 2%, setting yet another all time high. Chip makers Intel and Micron Technology also continued their strong momentum."
    (Roman Canciani, 03:54)

Asian Markets: Volatility & Policy

• Mixed Reactions:
  • "South Korea's Kospi is notably lagging, tumbling over 3% after a policymaker suggested distributing dividends… funded by taxes on AI profits."
    (Roman Canciani, 04:12)
  • Policy uncertainty heightens volatility

Big Tech & Global Funding

• Amazon’s Swiss Franc Bond:
  • "Amazon is tapping the Swiss franc market to fund its massive investments in AI infrastructure… Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet… are collectively planning to spend up to US$725 billion on AI related capital expenditure this year."
    (Roman Canciani, 04:51)
  • Using alternative funding for AI infrastructure amid global expansion

Upcoming Key Data

• Main Event:
  • "Today's main event is undoubtedly the US CPI inflation report… Expectations offer a slight uptick in both headline and core inflation to 3.7 and 2.7% respectively."
    (Roman Canciani, 05:30)
  • Impact on Fed outlook and US rate cut timeline

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Healthcare Focus: Hantavirus Outbreak and Market Implications

The Outbreak: Unprecedented Transmission Route

• Incident Overview:
  • "We've so far… had eight or so confirmed or suspected infections and tragically three fatalities. That translates into a case fatality rate of around 37%."
    (Bernadette Anderko, 06:28)
• What’s Different This Time?
  • "Most hantaviruses are transmitted through contact with excreta of infected rodents... [but] the Andis virus… possesses the alarming capability of human to human transmission."
    (Dr. Damian Ng, 06:56)
  • Human-human spread changes the public health response dynamics

Technology’s Role in Outbreak Response

• Rapid Genomic Sequencing:
  • Geneva University Hospital quickly identified the Andis strain affecting global containment strategies
• Digital Health Tools:
  • "Digital health tools were deployed alongside traditional methods… enabling remote center monitoring and assessment of exposure risks."
    (Dr. Damian Ng, 07:39)
  • Enhanced international coordination and surveillance

Diagnostic and Containment Challenges

• Similar Symptoms, Higher Risk:
  • "Early symptoms of HPS… can mimic those of more common maritime ailments like norovirus. But the severity and progression... are dramatically different."
    (Dr. Damian Ng, 08:20)
  • "The quick identification of the strain… was essential in distinguishing it… ensuring appropriate treatment and containment."
    (Dr. Damian Ng, 08:35)

Investor & Sector Implications

• Thematic Opportunities:

  • "It underscores the ongoing need for robust global surveillance systems... Investing in these systems, including genomic sequencing capabilities, is paramount."
    (Dr. Damian Ng, 08:58)
  • Digital health and telehealth adoption to surge
  • Age-related healthcare investing remains crucial given risk to older adults with pre-existing conditions

• Building Future Health Resilience:

  • "It demonstrates the growing importance of integrating genomics and digital health in response to such outbreaks… and fostering collaboration across countries and disciplines to ensure effective containment and adaptive responses."
    (Dr. Damian Ng, 09:44)

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Notable Quotes

• “The real story within equities was the weakness in luxury goods. That sector dropped significantly…”
  — Roman Canciani, 01:09

• “Oil prices jumped over 3% yesterday… after President Trump indicated the ceasefire with Iran is effectively failing.”
  — Roman Canciani, 02:47

• “Most hantaviruses are transmitted through contact with excreta of infected rodents. But… the Andis virus… possesses the alarming capability of human to human transmission.”
  — Dr. Damian Ng, 06:56

• “Investing in these [surveillance] systems, including genomic sequencing capabilities, is paramount... companies specializing in digital health tools are likely to see increased demand.”
  — Dr. Damian Ng, 08:58

• “Building a more resilient future for health will require strengthening global civilian systems, investing in rapid diagnostic capabilities, and fostering collaboration across countries and disciplines...”
  — Dr. Damian Ng, 09:44

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• European Market Summary & Sector Performance: 00:54 – 01:38
• ECB Rate Outlook: 01:53 – 02:33
• Oil and Commodities Update: 02:47 – 03:37
• US Market Review & Tech Rally: 03:43 – 04:09
• Asia Markets & Policy-driven Volatility: 04:12 – 04:38
• Big Tech Funding Moves & Swiss Bond: 04:51 – 05:23
• Economic Calendar Preview: 05:30 – 06:11
• Hantavirus Outbreak Analysis: 06:26 – 08:51
• Investment Implications of Health Developments: 08:58 – 09:42
• Health Tech Integration Takeaway: 09:44 – 10:15

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Summary Takeaways

This episode paints a picture of a world grappling with both shifting macroeconomic forces and emergent health threats. US tech's continued ascent contrasts with Europe's stalling luxury sector. Oil is volatile amid renewed Middle East fears, complicating inflation and monetary policy. The hantavirus outbreak highlights the pivotal role of genomics and digital solutions—not just for containment, but as a critical frontier for investors betting on the future of healthcare and global resilience.

Transcript

[A]

Welcome to the Moving Markets podcast on Tuesday 12th May, with me, Bernadette Anderko. Joining me this morning to bring us the latest news in financial markets is the head of product and investment content, Roman Canciani. And then I'm delighted to welcome next generation research analyst Dr. Damian Ng to the show. We've seen an uptick in pharma and biotech stocks this week on the back of the hantavirus outbreak aboard a cruise ship in the Atlantic, which is definitely grabbing headlines and he's going to bring us some more details about that. But first, the market headlines from the last 24 hours. Good morning to you, Roman.

[B]

Good morning, Bernadette.

[A]

We saw a fairly muted start to the week in Europe yesterday, but beneath the surface, several factors are vying for attention. So why don't we break it down? Firstly, how did equity markets perform overall and what sectors stood out or indeed underperformed?

[B]

Well, broadly speaking, European equities finished Monday relatively unchanged. The pan European Stoxx 600 was flat. However, looking closer reveals divergence. Italy's FTSE MIB actually rose, showing some resilience, while France's Cac Garante dipped. The real story within equities was the weakness in luxury goods. That sector dropped significantly 3.4% and is currently the worst performing on the Stoxx 600 this year. Names like LVMH, Hermes and Burberry all experienced notable declines, fueled by worries about softening global demand. Conversely, miners benefited from increased precious metal. Prices are gaining ground.

[A]

So, a tale of two speeds within the European market. But let's talk about the bigger picture, monetary policy. The ECB is clearly navigating a tricky landscape. What signals are we getting regarding potential future rate moves?

[B]

Well, it's certainly becoming a more complex equation. Recent surveys suggest economists now anticipate two rate hikes this year in June and September, primarily driven by persistent inflationary pressures tied to the situation in the Middle East. But real investors have actually priced in almost three hikes already at the beginning of the year. No hikes at all were expected. However, our own economists are leaning towards one single increase only potentially in June, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%. There's a lot to debate and a weakening economy could push out those timelines. But the baseline scenario suggests tightening remains on the table.

[A]

Ok, interesting. A bit of a split view. Speaking of complexities, we have to address the elephant in the room. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East. How is this impacting commodity markets? Rohan, specifically oil.

[B]

The impact is very visible. Oil prices jumped over 3% yesterday and continued to climb this morning after President Trump indicated the ceasefire with Iran is effectively failing. Brent is currently trading around US$105. Mr. Trump's comments have reignited fears of disruption to global energy supplies, especially through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. We're hearing also warnings from industry leaders like the CEO of Saudi Aramco who stated approximately 1 billion barrels of oil supply have been lost over the past two months. Shipping data adds to the concern with reports of tankers switching off tracking systems in the Gulf region. All of this is contributing to upward pressure on prices and exacerbating inflation concerns.

[A]

Okay then, let's quickly look at the US Stock market. How did the indices fare there yesterday?

[B]

Very well actually. US Stocks started the week higher with both The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closing at record highs. Tech stocks played a significant role in driving that rally. Share shares of Nvidia, the world's most valuable company, finished up 2%, setting yet another all time high. Chip makers intel and Micron Technology also continued their strong momentum and looking overnight.

[A]

How are Asian markets reacting to developments?

[B]

Trading there is mixed. While some markets are holding steady, others are experiencing headwinds. South Korea's Kospi is notably lagging, tumbling over 3% after a policymaker suggested distributing dividends to citizens funded by taxes on AI profits. This sparked considerable volatility as investors grapple with the details and the potential implications of such a proposal.

[A]

Which brings us nicely to a fascinating trend. Big Tech's increasing reliance on alternative funding sources. I understand Amazon is planning its first Swiss franc bond issuance.

[B]

Exactly. Amazon is tapping the Swiss franc market to fund its massive investments in AI infrastructure. This reflects a strategic strategic shift among major technology firms Meta Microsoft Alphabet to diversify their funding beyond US dollars. They are collectively planning to spend up to US$725 billion on AI related capital expenditure this year. Requiring substantial financing. The Swiss franc offers an attractive option due to strong investor demand and the currency stability.

[A]

And finally Roman, looking ahead to today, what's on the economic calendar that investors should be paying close attention to?

[B]

Today's main event is undoubtedly the US CPI inflation report. Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices have complicated the Fed's outlook and this data will be heavily scrutinized. Expectations offer a slight uptick in both headline and core inflation to 3.7 and 2.7% respectively. A stronger than expected reading could fuel fears of persistent price pressures and potentially delay potential rate cuts in the US situation. Mr. Trump would most certainly not be happy. Beer with. Alongside the cpi, we'll also be watching various other releases across Europe and asia, plus a US 10 year treasury auction. That's it from me.

[A]

Busy day ahead. Thank you very much for bringing us the news update this morning.

[B]

Roman, thank you very much. Bernadette, always a pleasure.

[A]

And now it's time to turn the talk to healthcare. Hello, Damien, and thank you for joining me today.

[C]

Hi, Bernadette.

[A]

So, the recent hantavirus outbreak on board this expedition cruise ship has sent ripples through the global health community. We've so far, I think, had eight or so confirmed or suspected infections and tragically three fatalities. That translates into a case fatality rate of around 37%. Quite a concerning statistic. But what sets this outbreak apart from typical hantavirus incidents? Because I thought the virus was normally spread via rodent contact.

[C]

That's precisely the key difference. So most contoviruses are transmitted through contact with excreta of infected rodents. But researchers at Geneva University Hospital swiftly identified the specific strain responsible, that is the Andis virus. By using genomic sequencing. This strain possesses the alarming capability of human to human transmission. Unfortunately, this dramatically changes the dynamics of the outbreak, increasing the risk of wider spread.

[A]

Okay, aside from using genomics to rapidly respond to identify this strain, how else have health authorities been responding to the challenge?

[C]

Right. We have seen targeted public health interventions. International contact tracing efforts were initiated, reaching passengers from over 20 different countries. Strict isolation protocols were implemented for anyone who had been on board. Crucially, digital health tools were deployed alongside traditional methods. These tools enabled remote center monitoring and assessment of exposure risks, facilitating coordinated surveillance across international borders.

[A]

Okay, so technology playing a vital role in containing the outbreak thus far. Was differentiating this infection from other illnesses challenging?

[C]

Yeah, very much so, Bernadette. So early symptoms of HPS or the so called hantavirus pulmonary syndrome can mimic those of more common maritime ailments like norovirus. But the severity and progression of HPS are dramatically different. The quick identification of the strain and the utilization of advanced diagnostics were essential in distinguishing it from these milder illnesses, ensuring appropriate treatment and containment measures.

[A]

All right then, beyond the immediate health concerns, what implications does this have from an investor standpoint? Damian?

[C]

Several, but it firstly, it underscores the ongoing need for robust global surveillance systems. Investing in these systems, including genomic sequencing capabilities, is paramount. Secondly, the success of the digital health tools demonstrates the value of telehealth and remote monitoring solutions. Companies specializing in these areas are likely to see increased demand. And finally, the fact that older individuals with pre existing conditions, they face more severe outcomes emphasizes the continued importance of investments in age related healthcare and preventive medicine. So building resilience requires a multifaceted approach.

[A]

Okay then, so what's the main takeaway from this then?

[C]

Damian Right, so it demonstrates the growing importance of integrating genomics and digital health in response to such outbreaks. Building a more resilient future for health will require strengthening global civilian systems, investing in rapid diagnostic capabilities, and fostering collaboration across countries and disciplines to ensure effective containment and adaptive responses to emerging infectious threats in an increasingly interconnected and aging world.

[A]

Thank you for providing such insightful analysis today, Damien. I'd just like to remind listeners that under the Future Health Next Generation theme here at Julius Baer, your team has a constructive view on extended longevity, digital health and genomics. Damien thank you so much for your insights. Fascinating developments both scientifically and from an investment perspective.

[C]

Thank you very much Bernadette for the invitation.

[A]

And that concludes today's podcast. Thank you again to Roman and Damian for joining me today and to you for listening. Please do tune in again tomorrow when Roman will be back, but this time as your host and he will be joined by more of our experts to discuss what's moving markets. So don't miss that. Good luck today and goodbye for now.

[D]

The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research. Please refer to www.juliusbear.com legal podcasts for further other important legal information.