US–China progress lifts markets, but rate concerns temper tech optimism

Summary

---

Moving Markets – US–China Progress Lifts Markets, but Rate Concerns Temper Tech Optimism

Podcast by Julius Baer | Host: Jan Bob | Published: May 15, 2026

---

Episode Overview

This episode of Moving Markets centers on the economic and market impacts of the recent US–China Summit in Beijing, the continuing rally in technology stocks, and mounting concerns over potential US interest rate hikes. Host Jan Bob is joined by Lucija Czechulic for an in-depth rundown of key geopolitical and market shifts, followed by Tim Gege’s analysis of currencies and precious metals against an evolving macro backdrop.

---

Main Discussion & Key Insights

1. US–China Summit: Market Impact and Key Outcomes

[00:54 – 02:57]

• Trade, Tariffs, and Tech:

  • The summit focused on sensitive trade issues, tariffs, export controls, and critical sectors like semiconductors and rare earths.
  • China is expected to increase purchases of US agricultural products, energy, and aircraft to fend off more tariffs.

  “Washington has cleared sales of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to roughly 10 major Chinese tech companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com.”
  — Lucija Czechulic [01:25]

• Market Reaction:

  • Nvidia’s stock surged over 4% on the chip news.
  • Hang Seng Tech Index responded positively at first, but gains evaporated later in the day.

• Geopolitical Tensions:

  • China’s President Xi Jinping delivered a stern warning to President Trump on Taiwan, highlighting it as a key flashpoint that could potentially undermine all bilateral progress.

  “Mismanaging the Taiwan issue risks derailing the entire US–China relationship.”
  — Lucija Czechulic, paraphrasing President Xi [02:03]

• Outreach to US CEOs:

  • Xi met with prominent CEOs like Elon Musk and Tim Cook, vowing that “China’s doors will open even wider” to foreign investment.
  • Signaled improved conditions for US firms in China.

2. Broad Market Movements

[03:03 – 04:35]

• Europe:

  • European stocks finished higher, bolstered by tech and media, with the Stoxx 600 up over 0.5%.

• US:

  • The Dow reclaimed the 50,000 mark, aided by Cisco’s earnings beat and Nvidia chip news.
  • Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched new all-time highs.

  “Cisco saw a substantial 12% share increase after beating earnings expectations and announcing around 4,000 job cuts.”
  — Lucija Czechulic [03:37]

• Notable Companies:

  • Burberry: Stock dropped ~7% on weak EMEA sales.
  • Boeing: Declined due to anticipation of more Chinese orders.
  • Cerebras: Chipmaker's NASDAQ debut nearly doubled its value.

• Crypto Rally:

  • Crypto-linked stocks, including Coinbase, rallied after the US Senate panel approved the Clarity Act to define crypto regulation.

3. Commodities Update

[04:42 – 05:07]

• Oil:

  • Prices stable, then ticking higher on reports of new Chinese orders for US oil.

• Metals:

  • Broad decline in metals, with further detail expected later in the episode.

4. Asia Overnight & Macro Data Watch

[05:07 – 06:32]

• Asian Markets:

  • Technology optimism faded due to renewed inflation concerns, driving US Treasury yields up and raising the odds of a rate hike.
  • Significant market drops:
    • South Korea’s KOSPI fell >6%, erasing record highs.
    • Japan and China down; India went against the trend and traded higher.

• Macro Data:

  • UK GDP data surprised to upside; US retail sales in line.
  • Today’s calendar: US industrial production and capacity utilization. Ongoing US–China summit’s next headlines seen as major market movers.
  • New Fed Chair:
    • Kevin Walsh confirmed as Fed Chair by slimmest ever Senate vote.

  “The US Senate has confirmed Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair—although interestingly, with the slimmest vote ever.”
  — Lucija Czechulic [06:24]

---

Special Segment: Currencies and Precious Metals with Tim Gege

[06:41 – 10:48]

5. Currencies: UK Sterling and Broader FX Themes

[06:47 – 08:16]

• Pound Sterling:

  • Suffered a sharp fall post-local elections and Labour leadership turmoil.
  • Political instability (notably Keir Starmer’s challenged leadership) and the UK’s precarious food and energy situation are increasing inflation and pressure on the pound.

  “The UK is in a uniquely problematic situation… The bank of England are in a very awkward spot. They are between a rock and a hard place and I think the pound could have further to go on the downside.”
  — Tim Gege [07:30]

• Investor guidance:

  • For those needing pounds, current levels offer value, but otherwise, caution is warranted.

6. Precious Metals: Risk Barometer

[08:16 – 09:32]

• Silver:

  • “Best short-term barometer of risk appetite,” but extremely volatile—down 7% today, ~14% below the week’s peak.
  • Recent volatility seen as an opportunity to reduce exposure.

  “This volatility is not pleasant for investors and I think anyone who has profit should look to reduce exposure.”
  — Tim Gege [08:44]

• Gold:

  • Less volatile; supported at 4,500 and 4,340 (200-day moving average).
  • Dips seen as gentle buying opportunities for underweight investors.

  “The only metal that I think it makes sense to hold is gold… the technical picture has become a lot more blurry since the wild ride at the start of the year.”
  — Tim Gege [09:06]

7. Opportunities Amid Volatility

[09:32 – 10:48]

• US Dollar:

  • Recent dollar strength presents selective opportunities to sell against preferred alternatives (Aussie dollar favored over euro and pound).
  • South African rand highlighted for potential, offering yield benefits.
  • General advice: now isn’t the time for large positions, but “one should be a bit brave sometimes.”

  “For people with a lot of dollars, this seems like it might be a good level to sell, but selectively. Otherwise, this might not be a bad time to work on your golf swing or… catch up on some of those series on the Watch list.”
  — Tim Gege [10:35]

• Lighthearted Closing:

  • “Finally, Jan, I ordered a chicken and an egg from Amazon, so I’ll let you know which one comes first.” — Tim Gege [10:45]

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “China’s doors will open even wider, promising a more favorable environment for U.S. companies operating within the country.”
  — Lucija Czechulic [02:41]

• “Mismanaging the Taiwan issue risks derailing the entire US China relationship.”
  — Lucija Czechulic, paraphrasing President Xi [02:03]

• “This level of volatility (in silver) is not pleasant for investors and I think anyone who has profit should look to reduce exposure.”
  — Tim Gege [08:44]

• “If you do not already have some [Aussie dollar], this dollar recovery may at some point present a better entry level to get some exposure.”
  — Tim Gege [10:05]

• “Finally, Jan, I ordered a chicken and an egg from Amazon, so I’ll let you know which one comes first.”
  — Tim Gege [10:45]

---

Timestamps for Important Segments

• US–China Summit & Tech Market Reaction: 00:54 – 02:57
• Broader Market Movements (Europe, US, Notable Stocks, Crypto): 03:03 – 04:35
• Commodities Update (Oil, Metals): 04:42 – 05:07
• Asia Overnight, Macro Data, New Fed Chair: 05:07 – 06:32
• FX & Precious Metals Analysis (with Tim Gege): 06:41 – 10:48

---

Conclusion

This dense, fast-paced episode covers major geopolitical developments, sector moves, and ongoing volatility in both currency and commodity markets. Listeners are left with key takeaways about the tech sector’s vulnerability to policy shifts, the fragility of the UK’s political and currency outlook, and the need for careful, selective positioning in today’s turbulent market environment—with a reminder to keep one's sense of humor intact.

---

Transcript

[A]

Good morning from Julius Baer. Today is Friday 15th May. My name is Jan Bob, and this is Julius Bear's Moving Markets podcast. A new Fed chair, the US China Summit in Beijing, and the relentless rally in tech. We'll be unpacking that and the rest of the latest market moves with Lucija Czechulic shortly. And then I'll be catching up with Tim Gege on the latest news from the world of currencies and precious metals. But now let's catch up with the latest market news. Good morning to you, Lucio. Good morning, Jan. Now let's take a look into what's been shaping markets. We've had a flurry of headlines coming from the Trump G Summit in Beijing. What are the key takeaways so far from this summit?

[B]

So discussions focused heavily on trade, specifically tariffs and export controls, alongside semiconductors and rare earth elements. The expectation, according to analysts, is that China will increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products, energy and aircraft to avoid further tariff escalations. But perhaps one of the biggest surprises was the report that Washington has cleared sales of Nvidia's H200AI chips to roughly 10 major Chinese tech companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com?

[A]

yeah, I mean, that was big news indeed. Nvidia jumped more than 4%. Did we also see reactions in Asian markets reflecting this?

[B]

Well, initially we did see the Hang Seng Tech Index edging up around half a percent higher and the broader Hang Seng followed suit, but the indices couldn't hold on to the gains. Yan.

[A]

Alright, so beyond the tech angle, Chinese President Xi raised concerns regarding Taiwan. How did that play out in the discussions?

[B]

So President Xi issued a firm warning to President Trump, stressing that mismanaging the Taiwan issue risks derailing the entire US China relationship. He reiterated that Taiwan's independence and state stability in the region are mutually exclusive, a stark reminder that this remains a key flashpoint.

[A]

Yeah, a delicate balance indeed. Interestingly, Xi also met with a number of prominent US CEOs accompanying Trump, Musk, Cook and Wang from Nvidia. What message did he have for them?

[B]

He essentially signaled that China intends to become even more welcoming to foreign investment. He stated that China's stores will open open wider, promising a more favorable environment for U.S. companies operating within the country.

[A]

Okay, how did the European and US Markets react to all these headlines yesterday?

[B]

So European stocks finished higher yesterday, supported by the generally positive signals from the Summit. The Stoxx 600 gained over half a percent, with tech and media leading the charge. Meanwhile, in the US the Dow reclaimed the 50,000 mark, driven by strong earnings from Cisco and the Nvidia News. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also reached fresh all time highs.

[A]

You just mentioned Cisco. Can you elaborate on that? And speaking of individual companies, Burberry faced quite a setback, didn't they?

[B]

Yeah, so Cisco saw a substantial 12% share increase after beating earnings expectations and announcing around 4,000 job cuts. On the flip side side, Burberry's Stock dipped nearly 7% due to weaker sales in Europe and the Middle East. And Boeing also experienced declines as investors anticipated bigger orders from China. Now I'd also like to quickly mention the chip maker Cerebras, which nearly doubled in value during its NASDAQ debut yesterday.

[A]

Impressive. We also saw a surge in crypto related stocks yesterday when what fueled that rally?

[B]

So this was driven by the Senate panel's approval of the Clarity act, which is a comprehensive bill regulating the crypto market. And that sparked considerable enthusiasm. Coinbase and several other plays in the space experienced substantial gains.

[A]

All right. Now, Lucia, turning to commodities, how did oil and metals perform yesterday?

[B]

Oil prices remained fairly stable yesterday, but they're trading higher this morning on reports that China will purchase oil from the us. Metals, on the other hand, were broadly lower yesterday and again this morning.

[A]

All right, we'll be hearing more on metals in a minute from Tim, so I'm looking forward to hearing his take. Now, Lucia, what's happened overnight in Asia? I see most markets are in the red.

[B]

Yes, that's right, Jan. So initial tech optimism waned as inflation concerns returned, pushing treasury yields to a one year high and increasing expectations for a US Rate hike. So in Asia, South Korea's KOSPI fell significantly over 6%, reversing earlier gains from a fresh record high. Japan also saw losses, and this followed surprisingly high producer price data. China and Hong Kong were lower too, but India bucked the pattern and traded higher.

[A]

Okay, and let's also talk about macro data quickly. I see yesterday we received the UK's GDP data, which is surprised to the upside. And we also had US retail sales come in as expected. What data releases should investors be paying attention to today?

[B]

So today's calendar is relatively quiet. This afternoon we'll get US industrial production and capacity utilization figures for April, offering another glimpse into U.S. economic strength. Other than that, the U.S. china summit continues. So any further announcements coming out of Beijing will undoubtedly move markets. And finally, just before we wrap up, Jan, I'd like to mention that the U.S. senate has confirmed Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair of. Although interestingly, with the slimmest vote ever.

[A]

Interesting indeed. Thanks for coming to our show today, Lucia.

[B]

Thanks for having me, Jan.

[A]

And now, Tim, good morning to you as well. Great to have you on the show today.

[C]

Thank you, Jan. Good morning.

[A]

So let's start with the UK today where we saw a big drop in the value of sterling following the local elections and labor leadership challenge in. Is there more to come? What's your take?

[C]

Yeah, the elections were quite simply a complete disaster for Labour and although it is less important right now, they were pretty terrible for the Conservative Party as well. Reform and Nigel Farage are ascendant and even the utterly unserious Green Party managed to do quite well, showing just how angry the British public really are. I was surprised that initially the reaction from the pound was so limited, but I seemed. But it seems the market was waiting to see what would happen to Prime Minister Keir Starmer and if anyone would challenge him. Now they have and his position looks extremely unstable. I think the pressure on gilts and the pound are slightly broader than the political problems though. Essentially the UK is in a uniquely problematic situation, mostly of their own making. They have less reserves of oil and food than pretty much any other similar country due to a foolish approach to attempting to deal with climate change and a contempt of the farming industry. The continuation of the war is therefore particularly difficult and likely to place upward pressure on inflation. The bank of England are in a very awkward spot. They are between a rock and a hard place and I think the pound could have further to go on the downside, especially against the dollar, if risk appetite continues to stay under pressure. If I needed pounds for whatever reason, then obviously this is a better level to buy than it was a couple of weeks ago, but otherwise I think there might be better places to be.

[A]

All right. And it feels like every Friday we have a different story to tell in precious metals. What is happening there today?

[C]

Yeah, metals at the moment seem to be the best short term barometer of risk appetite. And within metals, the purest one is silver. It's down 7% today and about 14% from earlier in the week. Weirdly, you look at a chart, it actually doesn't look too alarming because we're only really back to the levels of a week or so ago. But. But this level of volatility is not pleasant for investors and I think anyone who has profit should look to reduce exposure. If we have another rally up to say 85. Not to say that we won't go lower here, but I felt that earlier in the week the levels were rather excessive and Trump's comments on not needing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are only the latest reason to probably sell a bit of silver. Gold is less volatile, much less volatile, and the only metal that I think it makes sense to hold the massive supports of 4,500 and then 4,340, which is the 200 day moving average. If we were to break below that one, then a rethink might be required. The technical picture has become a lot more blurry since the wild ride at the start of the year. I probably would use these current dips as an opportunity to add a bit of gold exposure for those who feel they're a bit light, but I'd go very gently. So we are very headline driven these days.

[A]

Now with volatility comes opportunity sometimes at least do you see anything to do in the current environment?

[C]

Yeah, that's a tougher question. As usual for investors who believe in the ongoing bear dollar story, this is obviously a better level to sell some dollars against whatever it is you prefer to hold. I prefer not to look at euros for problems of yield and other not pounds for the reason previously stated, but I'm keeping a close eye on the Aussie dollar. I still have a strong bullish view on that, and this dollar recovery may at some point present a better entry level to get some exposure. If you do not already have some. There probably are some opportunities in emerging markets as well. The South African rand is a bit undervalued comparatively anyway. You get an extra 3% yield pickup over the dollar and it's doing less well or has done less well so far than some of the other EM currencies we look at. As usual, this isn't a place to be taking big positions, but I do agree also that one should be a bit brave sometimes. And for people with a lot of dollars this seems like it might be a good level to sell, but selectively otherwise this might not be a bad time to work on your golf swing or given the rain, catch up on some of those series on the Watch list. Finally, Jan, I ordered a chicken and an egg from Amazon, so I'll let you know which one comes first.

[A]

That's a good one.

[C]

Tim.

[A]

Thanks very much. Really good to hear your latest thoughts as always. And that is all for today. A big thank you to Luzja and Tim for sharing their perspectives and thank you all for tuning in. If you enjoyed today's show. Don't forget to subscribe if you haven't already. And please also leave us a review on whichever platform you like to listen on. And do join us again on Monday when Bernadette will be back as your host with a fresh lineup of experts talking about what is moving markets. Until then, I wish you all a great day and then a great weekend. Bye for now.

[D]

The information and opinions expressed in this podcast constitute marketing material and are not the result of independent financial or investment research. Please refer to www.juliusbear.com legal podcasts for further other important legal information.