The US and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire extension — not a full peace deal, but enough to send oil plunging to $81 and equities surging to record highs. Mark Gardner breaks down what it actually means for markets, why only one ship has been brave enough to transit the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the insurance companies and ship captains will believe Trump's Friday reopening timeline.

In today's episode:

0:00 — Iran MoU signed: what it really is (and isn't)
— S&P 500 +1.7%, Nasdaq +3.1% (best day since March), Dow record close
— Oil crashes to 3-month lows: WTI $81.49, Brent $83.74
— SpaceX surges another 20% to $192 — greenshoe takes IPO to $85.7B
— AMD Ryzen AI Max: first chip to run bi-parameter AI models on a single piece of silicon
— Nvidia raises $25B in bonds ($85B in orders) — AI CapEx now approaching US COVID stimulus levels
— Chevron and energy stocks oversold? Value emerging in traditional oil names
— Gold +2.4% to $4,320 as macro backdrop shifts
— ASX set to open down ~100 points despite Wall Street rally (SPY rollover dynamics)
— RBA rate decision today — expected to hold
— Fed decision tomorrow under new Chair Kevin Warsh — Iran deal gives him breathing room
— AI infrastructure build-out in historical context: railroads, fibre, interstate highways
— MoU signing in Switzerland on Friday — the real test

What is the US-Iran peace deal?
The US and Iran signed an electronic memorandum of understanding confirming a 60-day ceasefire extension. The Strait of Hormuz is set to fully reopen by Friday after mine-clearing operations. This is not a final peace deal — nuclear discussions and sanctions are deferred to follow-up negotiations over 60 days. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland.

How does the Iran deal affect oil prices?
WTI crude fell 4% to $81.49 and Brent dropped 4.2% to $83.74 — both three-month lows. However, shipping operators remain cautious about resuming Hormuz transit. Naval experts estimate mine-clearing could take a month, and insurance companies have yet to adjust their risk assessments for the strait.

How does the Iran deal affect interest rates?
The oil price decline eases inflation pressure, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate hikes. Market pricing has shifted from two hikes by early 2027 to potentially just one by December. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh now has room to adopt a more dovish tone at Wednesday's press conference.

🔔 Subscribe for daily market updates before the ASX opens.

📊 On-demand webinar: Software Survivors sequel — scan the QR code or visit mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast

🎧 Listen on your favourite platform:
🟢 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1igBks6n4hC3Uo8TnTcFaU
🍎 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mpc-markets-morning-call/id1822404938
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLonxssa1GsVJ1aUFFE0Nc4IMGmJd3kFaw

⚠️ For professional use only. Not financial advice.

#MorningCall #MPCMarkets #ASX #StockMarket #IranDeal #OilPrices #SpaceX #Nvidia #FederalReserve #RBA