Podcast
MPC Markets Morning Call
Hosted by MPC Markets · EN
The MPC Markets Morning Call is a daily Australian stock market podcast hosted by Mark Gardner, Founder & CEO of MPC Markets. Published every weekday before the ASX opens, it covers overnight Wall Street moves, ASX sector outlooks, commodities, currencies, interest rates, and geopolitics ,everything Australian investors need to start the trading day. Mark brings nearly 30 years of experience across equities, derivatives, and structured investments. New episode every weekday morning. Subscribe for your daily pre-market briefing.
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Episodes
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AI Angst Offsets Oil Decline as Nvidia Deals Reignite Circular Fears
3w ago00:15:52Tap to summarizeNvidia fell 5% as $750B+ in AI deals raised circular financing concerns, ASML sank 8.3% on Chinese DUV lithography reports, and oil plunged 8.4% on the US-Iran strike pause. Mark breaks down the semiconductor selloff, China's chip breakthrough with CXMT's explosive IPO, why peak opinion dispersion may signal a turning point, and what's ahead with the RBA decision, FOMC, and megacap earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Plus: last call on Buy the Dip closing Thursday.
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Stocks Fall Friday but open higher Monday on US Iran Hopes
3w ago00:16:54Tap to summarizeStocks Fall Friday, But Open Higher Monday on US/Iran Hopes — MPC Markets Morning Call, 27 July 2026Wall Street's second straight weekly loss met three headwinds at once: Brent crude above $100 on Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Alphabet's $205B capex guidance triggering the worst Mag Seven selloff since April 2025, and Trump's new tariffs on 60 economies. But Monday opens with cautious optimism — the US paused airstrikes on Iran after 13 consecutive nights, with Tehran signalling a reciprocal halt.Mark covers the chip stock carnage (SOX's worst month since June 2022), why Intel fell 8% despite beating earnings, and how Apple's lean-capex strategy is being rewarded while the other hyperscalers burn cash. Plus: 30-year mortgage rates at 11-month highs, European gas up 40% in July, and the pivotal week ahead with the Fed, RBA, BoJ, BoE, and mega-cap earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple all landing mid-week.General advice only. Visit mpcmarkets.com.au for more.
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Investors Finally Wake up to Mounting Risks
3w ago00:17:48Tap to summarizeInvestors finally woke up to the risks we've been warning about. The Nasdaq fell 2.2% as Alphabet reported its first-ever negative free cash flow and Tesla dropped 14% on weak margins. Brent crude topped $100 after Houthi strikes on Saudi tankers closed the Bab el-Mandeb strait, sending yields to 18-month highs and Fed hike odds surging to 35%. Trump announced new forced-labour tariffs — Australia copping 12.5%. Intel was the lone bright spot, surging 9% after hours on a data centre beat, while Lockheed Martin (+10.5%) and RTX (+7.3%) rallied on raised guidance. We break down what it all means for ASX investors and why this is the moment to be managing your risk, not ignoring it. Plus — tune in to Bulls vs Bears EP129 this afternoon: Hyperscalers or Hyperspenders.
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Risks Stack up Google Capex Raises Concerns
3w ago00:13:55Tap to summarizehttps://mpcinvest.co/BuytheDipRisks Stack Up: Google Capex Raises Concerns | 23 July 2026Google raised capex to $205B and reported its first negative free cash flow quarter — shares down 5% after hours. Tesla missed earnings. Oil's up 10% in five days with Brent past $95 after Houthis attacked Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Two shipping straits now compromised. Margin lending at records, fund managers low on cash. We break down why portfolio risk management has never been more important — and what to watch as Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon report next week.Free portfolio reviews: mpcmarkets.com.au | Buy the Dip: mpcmarkets.com.au
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FOMO Buying Drives Chips Stock Bounce
3w ago00:10:52Tap to summarizeWall Street staged a solid comeback on Tuesday as dip buyers piled into battered semiconductor shares, lifting the Nasdaq 1.9% and the S&P 500 0.9% to 7,509. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ripped 5.2% higher in its biggest daily gain in a month, with Micron up 12.2% and AMD up 8.1%, as hedge funds that had slashed long positions scrambled to rebuild ahead of mega-cap earnings. But the rally played out against a darkening geopolitical backdrop: Brent crude topped $91 a barrel after Houthi militants threatened to blockade Saudi Red Sea ports, oil tankers began u-turning, and the US completed a tenth straight day of strikes against Iran. Trump played down the prospect of talks, vowing to hit Iranian nuclear sites. Gold surged to $4,085 an ounce. ASX 200 futures point to a modest gain of 21 points to 8,763.The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 7,509.20, the Nasdaq added 1.9%, and the Dow gained 0.7% to 52,224.64 as nine of eleven sectors advanced, led by a 2.35% rally in information technology.The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.2% — its biggest single-day gain in a month — with Micron up 12.2%, SanDisk up 14.3%, and Western Digital up 12.5% as hedge funds scrambled to rebuild positions ahead of earnings.Brent crude jumped 2.4% to $91.35 a barrel after Houthi militants threatened a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, forcing oil tankers to u-turn in the Red Sea and choking a key workaround for Strait of Hormuz disruptions.The US completed a tenth straight day of strikes against Iran, with Trump playing down the prospect of talks and vowing to hit suspected nuclear sites, while Iran threatened a “powerful strike” in retaliation.3M surged 7.3% after lifting its full-year profit forecast, GM rose nearly 5% on a raised outlook, while Danaher sank 11% after cutting its core revenue growth guidance.China’s Moonshot AI is preparing to raise capital at up to $50 billion ahead of a Hong Kong IPO, after its 2.8 trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model drove daily revenue up sixfold.Key Takeaways010203040506
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Stock Downs Small Despite War Intensifying
4w ago00:14:26Tap to summarizeStocks down small despite the Iran war widening sharply — tenth straight day of US strikes, three soldiers dead, Houthis threatening a Saudi Red Sea blockade, and Hormuz traffic at a trickle. Brent crude hit $90 before pulling back. AMD jumped on a Microsoft Azure AI deal, China's Moonshot Kimi K3 is now the world's third-ranked AI model, and Michael Burry covered half his Oracle short at 52-week lows. SpaceX set August 4 for its maiden earnings. New UK PM, new Chancellor, gilt yields back above 5%. Big earnings week ahead with Alphabet and Tesla, then Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon next week. The capex question looms large.mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast | mosaic.mpcmarkets.com.au
Transcribe →China AI, Leverage & War See Markets Head Lower
4w ago00:10:59Tap to summarizeBuy the Dip: https://mpcinvest.co/BuytheDipChina's Moonshot AI drops its Kimi K3 — a 2.8 trillion parameter model already beating top US large language models — and markets aren't taking it well. The SOX semiconductor index hit bear market territory (down 21-22% from its high), triple-leveraged semiconductor ETFs have lost more than half their value since June, and FINRA margin debt has surged from $1T to $1.4T in six months. That leverage could snowball.Meanwhile, US-Iran tensions are escalating sharply — two US soldiers killed over the weekend, oil shipping traffic near zero, US reserves at 40-year lows, and Brent crude up ~3% on the open. Not a great cocktail for risk assets.In this episode Mark Gardner covers:– Why the Kimi K3 model matters and what it signals about China closing the AI gap– Leveraged ETF and margin debt warning signs– US-Iran escalation, oil reserves, and the crude price outlook– Gold, silver, lithium, and uranium positioning– Earnings week preview: Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, RTX, Freeport-McMoRan, Eli Lilly– Australian employment data and flash PMIs– The MPC "Buy the Dip" S&P 500 strategy for volatile markets🎧 Subscribe to Bulls vs Bears: mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast📈 Buy the Dip strategy: mpcinvest.co/bythedip#markets #AI #semiconductors #oil #investing #morningcall #mpcmarkets
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Investors Abandon "Sinking Chips"
4w ago00:14:29Tap to summarizeTSMC posted a 77% profit jump, beat on every line, raised CapEx to $60–64 billion — and the stock fell 2.3%. That tells you everything about where sentiment sits right now. The SOX index cratered 4%, Micron dropped 8%, AMD lost 3%, and the NASDAQ slid 1.5% for the session. Netflix didn't help either, down ~10% after hours on soft Q3 guidance and a move to reduce reporting transparency.Meanwhile, the U.S. launched a fifth consecutive night of strikes on Iran. Tehran has told the Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea if Washington hits power infrastructure — putting both Middle East oil choke points at risk simultaneously. Oil barely moved. That disconnect won't last.Dallas Fed's Logan called for "modestly higher" rates. Retail sales came in at +0.2%. Jobless claims fell to 208k. The economy's fine. The Fed isn't cutting.Plus: ASX outlook, Coles walking from Greencross, BHP strike action, and what to watch next week when Alphabet, Tesla, and Eli Lilly report.Hosted by Mark Gardner | mpcmarkets.com.au
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Stocks higher on Inflation Delusion
Jul 1500:07:57Tap to summarizePPI dropped to 5.5%. The target's 2%. The market's partying like inflation's fixed — it isn't. Fifth day of US strikes on Iran, Hormuz still closed, crude grinding higher. All that inflation relief is about to unwind. Hot money flipping between chips and hyperscalers daily. Margin lending up $400bn with zero downside protection. Copper the real story — Rio doubled earnings growth, BHP reports today. Plus: why the MOU might have been a 60-day executive powers reset, and why a September government shutdown is near-certain.
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Soft CPI Gives the Fed Cover & Relief Rally
Jul 1400:17:38Tap to summarizeCPI dropped to 3.5% and stocks bounced, but we think the celebration is premature — it's still well above target and mostly driven by oil prices rolling back. Bank earnings were a mixed bag: Goldman Sachs up 9% on record trading, JP Morgan posted record profit, but Citi fell 5%. We break down why the trading desks are carrying these numbers and what it means for the sector.The bigger story: retail margin lending has ballooned to $1.4 trillion, fund managers have almost no cash to buy a dip, and put volumes are at the floor. We explain why that setup makes us short-term cautious and what we're doing about it for clients — including a structured investment that caps downside while keeping upside exposure through a look-back entry mechanism.Plus: gold and copper bouncing, crude pulling back, TSMC guidance tomorrow, and why the ASX should have a decent day off the back of bank earnings and commodity strength.
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