HOLIDAY SPECIAL: The New Year's Murders 2

Podcast: Murder: True Crime Stories
Host: Carter Roy
Special Guest: Vanessa Richardson
Release Date: January 1, 2026

Episode Overview

This holiday special concludes the two-part series on the disappearance and presumed murder of Olivia Hope (17) and Ben Smart (21), who vanished after a New Year's Eve party in New Zealand in 1998. Host Carter Roy and guest Vanessa Richardson dive into the investigation, the controversial conviction of Scott Watson, and the lingering questions of justice and truth that haunt the case decades later. The episode unpacks police work, forensic evidence, witness testimony, trial controversies, and the lasting impact on the victims' families.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Grief, Loss, and Closure

• [00:46–01:20]
  The episode opens with a reflection on grief and the elusive nature of closure for families of murder victims.
  • Carter Roy: “People's lives are like a story. There's a beginning, a middle and an end. But you don't always know which part you're on. Sometimes the final chapter arrives far too soon and we don't always get to know the real ending.”
  • Vanessa Richardson: Emphasizes closure as a missing “crucial step” in the grief process, especially for families who never learn the full truth.

2. Recap: The Disappearance

• [02:49–04:51]
  • Olivia and Ben disappeared after a New Year's Eve party at Furneaux Lodge in New Zealand's Marlborough Sounds.
  • Last seen boarding a water taxi around 4am (January 1, 1998); Guy Wallace, the taxi driver, dropped them off at what he described as a distinctive two-masted, blue-striped boat with a scruffy male owner.
  • Their bodies were never found, and the missing persons case quickly turned into a homicide investigation.

3. Focus on Scott Watson

• [06:02–08:51]
  • Police focused early on Scott Watson, a young man with a criminal background who partied at the lodge and whose boat, the Blade, was in the area.
  • However, multiple aspects did not fit:
    • The Blade was a single-masted, originally red boat (later painted blue).
    • Watson was clean-shaven with short hair, not matching the witness descriptions.
  • Circumstantial factors (behavior at the party, boat location) fueled police suspicion, but concrete evidence was lacking.

4. The Search for Physical Evidence

• [07:18–11:12]
  • First search of the Blade was fruitless; no fingerprints, blood, or matching hair samples.
  • Police found over 400 hairs on a tiger blanket; initial analysis revealed no match to Olivia.
  • Later, two new blonde hairs (samples 12 & 13) were found:
    • Sample 13: Inconclusive, contaminated.
    • Sample 12: DNA matched Olivia’s maternal line, “28,000 times more likely” than a random person. This provided the first forensic link between Olivia and Watson's boat.

5. The Struggle with Forensic Ambiguity

• [13:30–16:02]
  • Scratches inside the boat’s hatch were believed by police to be “clawing” marks from a trapped victim; Watson’s family claimed his nieces made the marks weeks earlier.
  • Watson explained away other evidence:
    • Cleaned hull attributed to prepping the boat, not dumping bodies.
    • No knowledge of how Olivia’s hair ended up on the boat; suggested possible “secondary transfer.”
  • Vanessa Richardson [16:02]: Explains secondary transfer—hair from a party could have stuck to Watson and transferred onto the boat.

6. Police Pressures and Questionable Tactics

• [17:05–20:12]
  • Police wiretapped the Watsons and their neighbors; also used ex-girlfriends as covert informants.
  • Family’s openly hostile, bitter private conversations about Detective Rob Pope (“They discussed whether it would be better to shoot him or stab him”), likely fueled police zeal.
  • Key witnesses, including water taxi driver Guy Wallace and bartender Roz McNeely, failed to positively identify Watson in several photo lineups.
  • Police then used a new “blinking photo” of Watson (making his eyes appear narrower), after which both Guy and Roz tentatively selected him, but later expressed doubts.

7. Arrest and Public Reaction

• [24:50–25:35]
  • June 15, 1998: Scott Watson arrested for Olivia and Ben's murders; he dryly remarked to police:
    • “About time.”
  • The public and families were hopeful that the case’s resolution would bring closure.

8. Trial, Conviction & Unfolding Doubts

• [25:35–30:14]
  • Trial opened June 1999; Watson’s defense maintained all evidence was circumstantial—no bodies, uncertain timeline, and multiple alibi witnesses.
  • Prosecution’s “two trip theory” (Watson returned to shore a second time to commit the crime) was introduced during trial, with no hard evidence.
  • Jailhouse informants testified Watson confessed, but both would later be discredited; one admitted to perjury.
  • Forensic lab scientist Susan Vintner acknowledged possible cross-contamination in DNA evidence but stood by her findings.
  • Jury convicted Watson of two counts of murder on September 11, 1999; sentenced to life with possibility of parole in 17 years.

9. Aftermath: Recantations and Public Shift

• [30:55–34:25]
  • Bartender Roz and water taxi driver Guy Wallace retracted their tentative identifications after seeing a true photo of Watson from the party; both said “the scruffy man” was not Scott Watson.
  • Jailhouse informant A admitted he lied to avoid jail for another crime; informant B’s closeness with Watson was called into question.
  • Olivia's father, Gerald Hope, publicly questioned the police case, focusing on the ignored blue and white yacht, and criticizing the two-trip theory.
  • Public opinion shifted over the years; belief in Watson’s guilt dropping from 59% (2002) to 42% (2007).

10. Appeals, Continued Imprisonment & Lingering Uncertainty

• [34:25–35:42]
  • Multiple appeals by Watson’s legal team were rejected, including a 2025 re-examination of the DNA hair evidence and eyewitness testimony.
  • Watson’s refusal to participate in rehabilitation programs (maintaining innocence) has kept him from parole.
  • As of 2025, with every legal avenue nearly exhausted, Watson remains in prison.

11. The Cost to Victims’ Families

• [35:42–36:57]
  • The focus on Watson’s possible innocence overshadowed Ben and Olivia’s story. The Hope and Smart families remain desperate for answers.
  • Gerald Hope (Olivia’s father) quote [36:14]:
    • “We never got the truth. We haven't got the truth yet.”
  • The case raises lasting questions about justice, investigative bias, and the search for closure when the real truth remains elusive.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Carter Roy [01:20]:
  “People's lives are like a story. There's a beginning, a middle and an end. But you don't always know which part you're on. Sometimes the final chapter arrives far too soon and we don't always get to know the real ending.”

• Vanessa Richardson [16:02]:
  “So this is called secondary transfer. And strictly speaking, it. It was possible. People naturally shed up to 100 hairs every day...”

• Carter Roy [24:50]:
  “For months the police had been laser focused on him. When they finally slapped the cuffs on him, Scott had just two words for the officers booking him. About time.”

• Gerald Hope [36:14]:
  “We never got the truth. We haven't got the truth yet. Hopefully one day they will.”

• Vanessa Richardson [30:55]:
  “She told the media she'd been proud that her testimony helped put a murderer behind bars. Now she was afraid that she'd locked an innocent man in prison while the real killer still roamed free.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:46–01:20: Introduction on grief and closure
• 04:51–07:18: Police focus on Scott Watson, circumstantial evidence
• 07:18–11:12: First forensic tests, the hair evidence
• 13:30–16:02: Scratches, DNA doubts, and Watson’s family response
• 17:05–20:12: Police wiretaps, witness difficulties, and forced line-ups
• 24:50–25:35: Scott Watson’s arrest
• 25:35–30:14: Trial, “two trip theory,” jailhouse informants, conviction
• 30:55–34:25: Post-trial recantations, public opinion shift, failed appeals
• 35:42–36:57: The enduring loss for the Hope and Smart families

Tone & Language

The hosts maintain a compassionate, thoughtful, and analytical tone throughout—balancing empathy for victims and families with skepticism toward the investigation and trial. They do not sensationalize, instead asking tough questions and acknowledging the lasting pain and uncertainty left unresolved by the New Year’s Murders.

Conclusion

This episode unpacks the complexity and lingering doubts in one of New Zealand’s most infamous criminal cases. The messy interplay of forensic ambiguity, unreliable witnesses, and intense police scrutiny demonstrate how the criminal justice system—with all its flaws—can leave families, communities, and even the convicted searching for real closure long after the verdict is read. As the hosts poignantly conclude, some truths remain hidden, and justice—in the eyes of those most hurt—remains incomplete.