My First Million – “We asked a $15B Investor how to survive the AI bubble” — April 7, 2026

Hosts: Sam Parr & Shaan Puri
Guest: Graham Weaver (Founder, Alpine Investors, Stanford Business School Lecturer)
Theme: Excellence in investing, navigating the AI market bubble, building durable businesses, and achieving personal fulfillment.

Episode Overview

This episode welcomes Graham Weaver, a top-tier private equity investor and Stanford lecturer, to discuss how to build and sustain success in business, especially in the context of the current AI-hype cycle. The hosts dig into what it takes to be “number one” in investing, strategies for surviving tech bubbles, the realities of wealth and meaning, and the power of building people-centric enterprises.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Graham Weaver’s Investment Background & Philosophy

• Alpine Investors’ Track Record: Over 15 years, Alpine’s four most recent funds have all delivered 5x returns or better over ~6 years each (00:00, 02:01, 03:32).
• Their Approach: Focuses on “buy and build” within "prosaic" industries such as plumbing, HVAC, and some software, by empowering highly talented operators, often military veterans, to run and grow small service businesses (04:24, 06:11, 07:36, 09:03).
• Values-Based Investing: Three main goals—top performance, being a force for good, and being the workplace of choice for great talent (02:01).

Quote:
"Our secret superpower is really training these awesome leaders and giving them an opportunity to do something they might not have had the opportunity to do otherwise."
—Graham Weaver (05:46)

2. How Buy & Build Works at Alpine

• Navy SEALs in Plumbing: The model is almost comically simple—take world-class talent (e.g., Navy SEALs), put them in charge of dull but big industries, and scale up by acquiring and integrating smaller businesses (06:00, 09:43).
• Playbook Creation: Each business has its own “superpowers” (e.g., customer acquisition, training, purchasing). By buying multiple companies, Alpine combines these strengths into a best-in-class playbook (09:43).
• Operator-Centric Search Fund Model: Different from traditional PE—starts with finding the people, not buying the company first and hoping the management works out (07:06, 07:36).

3. Navigating the AI Bubble—Where’s the Hype, Danger, and Opportunity?

• AI Stack Analysis:
  1. Infrastructure Layer (chips, data centers): Sustainable, large-scale opportunity but tough for most to access.
  2. LLMs (Large Language Models): Very few players, capital-intensive, over-priced.
  3. AI App Layer: Where most VC money is going, but massively overhyped and full of feature-thin, quickly commoditized businesses (15:30, 17:11).
  4. Use Case Layer: Embedding AI in old-economy businesses. More practical and enduring.

Quote:
"These venture backed apps… they’ll have $2 million of revenue and a $500 million valuation and they’re gonna go to zero."
—Graham Weaver (00:26 & 17:16)

• Rollups with AI: Many funds think they’ll just "throw AI in" to boost value—a dangerous oversimplification. Creating durable value still comes from organizational excellence—talent, culture, customer relationships—not just tech (19:43, 20:36, 21:47).
• Commoditization Risk: In many sectors, AI advantage is fleeting—what eventually endures are deep customer ties and executional excellence (21:47, 24:16).

4. Spotting Real Opportunity/Post-AI Strategy

• Advice for Young Ambitious Talent:
  • Build service rollups in industries where deep customer relationships are the moat (23:49–24:16).
  • Don’t focus only on technology advantage; AI should be seen as a tailwind to solid, “old-fashioned” business fundamentals, not the differentiator itself.

Quote:
“…your moat against AI is like the deep, deep relationships with your customers. So I would say go into something where you can really build those kind of customer moats and then AI is nothing but a tailwind…”
—Graham Weaver (24:16)

5. The Human Element—Building a Great Team

• Case Study: Grew an HVAC/plumbing business from $8M to $500M earnings in 6 years with a team combining talent, grit, operational expertise (28:28).
• Attributes Sought:
  • “White-hot will to win”—correlates more with success than school/IQ.
  • Growth mindset, relentless persistence, openness to learning and using best practices (31:40).
• Hiring Approach:
  • Three-hour interviews tracing people’s entire life trajectories, looking for repeated evidence of overcoming adversity (31:40).

Quote:
"Number one, is just this white hot will to win... that's more important for us. We found that to be way more highly correlated than like, you know, any other factor, IQ or background..."
—Graham Weaver (31:40)

6. The "Genie Question" & Pursuing Full Potential

• Life Design Exercise: What would you do if you couldn’t fail? Most people don’t honestly ask themselves; inner permission is the first step (34:26).
• Limiting Beliefs: Common for even top performers to be racked with doubts; active exercises (journaling limiting beliefs, then reframing them as problems to solve) are key to unlocking action (36:55).
• “Dabbling”: For people who don’t know their best path—try multiple interests in small doses, tracking what brings energy rather than expecting quick traction (40:48).

7. Wealth, Happiness, and Freedom: Myths vs. Reality

• Long Grind to Wealth:
  • Took Graham 14 years to have $1M in the bank despite an “on paper” much earlier success (45:01).
  • Lesson: Don’t bloat your “denominator” (lifestyle/expenses); real freedom comes from a low baseline (46:21).
• Peace of Mind Tiers:
  • First, 3–6 months of savings = peace of mind.
  • Next, 9–12 months = freedom to pursue work you enjoy.
  • Wealth after that adds increasingly little happiness (49:58).
• Internal Work Matters: External wins won’t fix deep-seated feelings of “not enough.” Actual contentment comes from self-acceptance and being present, not just hitting financial goals (52:21).

Quote:
“You’re not going to solve an internal problem with the external outcome.”
—Graham Weaver (52:21)

8. Graham’s Top Tools for Lifelong Growth

• Radical Accountability Exercise: Rewrite traumatic experiences, making yourself fully responsible—powerful for personal agency (54:12).
• Meditation Reframe:
  • Don’t stress about mind-wandering—each return to focus is a rep at “mental fitness,” just like struggling through weight reps in the gym (54:53, 58:18).

9. Teaching, Parenting, & Leadership as a Force for Good

• Parenting Style: Use frameworks where appropriate, but mostly lead by example; kids absorb what they see more than what they’re told (58:58).
• Change Through Playbooks, Not Raw Motivation: Motivated hires get frameworks/playbooks and make them their own. Don’t try to teach motivation—hire for it (61:39).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "How do you do 5x in six years? Well, you go get Navy SEALs to run plumbing companies." (00:09, 06:00 – Shaan & Graham—humorous simplification, but literally true for their model)
• “These venture backed apps… they're going to go to zero.” (00:26, 17:16 – Graham, on AI startup overhype)
• “Almost all your battles that you have, are you against you… It's way easier to change how you're interpreting [life] than what's going on out there.” (54:53 – Graham)
• “I was a millionaire on paper before that, but actually in the bank, it was 14 years.” (45:04 – Graham, myth-busting the overnight success fantasy)
• “If you actually build something, time’s your friend and… you can make 100 times your money.” (27:38 – Graham, on durable business vs. extract-and-flip)
• “If you want to have a great life, be present… building that muscle of watching your thoughts… over and over.” (54:53 – Graham, meditation as mental gym)

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|----------| | 00:00 – 07:36 | Background on Alpine’s investment approach, fund returns, what private equity really does | | 09:03 – 10:43 | The buy & build playbook, “Navy SEALs run plumbing companies” | | 11:23 – 15:30 | Graham’s humble beginnings, setting goals, and path to resilience | | 15:30 – 18:07 | Analysis of the current AI bubble—overhyped venture-backed apps | | 19:43 – 24:16 | AI rollup strategies; why operational excellence and moats matter more than AI | | 28:28 – 31:40 | Case study: $8M to $500M plumbing/HVAC business—making high-performing teams | | 34:08 – 36:55 | The Genie Question: “What would you do if you couldn’t fail?” and why people struggle with it | | 36:55 – 40:48 | Facing limiting beliefs and taking small experimental steps toward your “rich life” | | 45:04 – 47:38 | Graham’s candid story on the slow journey to actual wealth and avoiding lifestyle bloat | | 52:21 – 58:18 | Happiness, internal growth, meditation, and presence as success multipliers | | 58:58 – 61:39 | Parenting, teaching, and leading by example with frameworks and playbooks |

Where to Find Graham Weaver

• Instagram (& most platforms): @gramcweaver

Podcast Takeaway:
Graham demonstrates that true excellence, resilience, and lasting value—in investing or in life—come from a ruthless focus on people and self-awareness, not tech hype or financial modeling alone. Use AI as a tailwind, but build businesses (and lives) that outlast any bubble.

Listen for:

• No-bullshit analysis of AI opportunity vs. hype
• A transparent look at the realities (and internal struggles) behind outsized success
• Practical frameworks for personal and business breakthrough