In this episode, we’re joined by Jessie Yeung. Jessie teaches an undergraduate course called “Probabilities Everywhere,” which explores how probability shows up in everyday life—from elections and gambling to wartime decision-making and polling. Her work focuses on interdisciplinary research, statistics education, and social statistics, with a passion for making statistical thinking accessible and relevant.We talk about what polls actually measure, how to think clearly about uncertainty, and why understanding probability can transform how you see the world—from politics to poker.📖 Video Chapters0:00 – Intro0:28 – What Election Polls Actually Measure4:01 – Bias in Polling & Adjusting for It7:02 – Understanding Margin of Error & Confidence Intervals12:36 – How Sample Size Affects Accuracy14:46 – The “Magic Number” of 1,000 in Polls17:00 – Sample Size Calculations Explained20:03 – Why the House Always Wins: Casinos & the Law of Large Numbers23:00 – Lottery Economics: Expected Loss and Rare Profitable Cases25:30 – The Cash Windfall Lottery Hack by MIT Students30:18 – Sampling’s Hidden Superpower34:52 – Abraham Wald and the Bias in Wartime Data40:04 – Making Probability Relatable in Everyday Life41:39 – Why You Shouldn’t Trust Polls as Predictions42:48 – Rethinking Uncertainty: What Students Take Away43:34 – Lotteries, Casinos & the Myth of Getting Rich44:20 – Final Thoughts & Takeaways

Probability, Bias, and the Lottery That Was Actually Worth Playing | Jessie Yeung