Podcast Summary: NerdWallet’s Smart Money Podcast

Episode: Are You Too Late for the Gold Rush? Plus: A Retirement Rule That Might Be Broken
Hosts: Sean Pyles, CFP®; Elizabeth Ayola
Guests: Ana Hohoski, Sam Taub, James Bashel
Release Date: January 29, 2026

Overview

This episode dives into two hot personal finance topics:

1. The meteoric rise in gold and silver prices, analyzing what's truly driving this "gold rush," who should (or shouldn't) get involved, and the practical role precious metals play in diversified portfolios today.
2. The utility (or obsolescence) of the traditional “80% of income in retirement” rule—why it came about, whether it still holds up, and smarter alternatives for planning your financial future.

Financial journalists and guest experts weigh in with actionable advice, relatable anecdotes, and tips for balancing risk, reward, and reality—whether you’re investing for growth or planning a long and fulfilling retirement.

1. Money News Roundup: The Precious Metals Frenzy

[00:30–16:15]

Why Gold and Silver Matter (and Why Now)

• Safe Haven Appeal:
  • Gold and silver’s core value is their intrinsic worth and historic role as currency hedges, not their resistance to volatility.
  • “Precious metals are safe havens because their prices are supposed to move independently of most other things in financial markets and the economy, especially money. When currencies lose their value, precious metals have a long track record of holding theirs.”
    — Sam Taub [01:56]

Drivers Behind the Record Prices

• Gold at All-Time Highs:
  • Institutional buyers (central banks, hedge funds, wealthy individuals) are loading up to counter geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs, and a sliding US dollar.
  • “Gold tends to hold its value really well against a declining currency… Large institutions are buying gold as a hedge.”
    — Sam Taub [03:05]
• Silver’s Extra Volatility:
  • Silver is both a precious and an industrial metal—demand spikes with industries like electronics and EVs.
  • “Most of the global demand for silver comes from industrial applications like electronics and photography…”
    — Sam Taub [03:39]

The Impact of Current Events

• Headlines Fueling Price Surges:
  • Geopolitical flashpoints (like tariff threats or tensions with other countries) can trigger short-term gold price jumps.
  • “When we’re talking about market volatility due to these tariffs, we have to keep Taco in mind. That’s the acronym for ‘Trump Always Chickens Out.’”
    — Sam Taub [04:31]
• But Don’t Overreact to News:
  • Short-term swings usually revert to long-term currency trends.
  • Most financial advisors don’t recommend day-trading gold.

Should Everyday Investors Join?

• Gold as Portfolio Diversifier—Not a Jackpot:
  • “Precious metals aren’t something that’s going to make you a big short-term profit. Some are skeptical about including them at all, others say 5–10% of your portfolio as a diversifier and ‘apocalypse insurance’.”
    — Sam Taub [07:48]
• Timing Purchases/Sales:
  • Timing is less important for long-term investors.
  • After metals outperform stocks, rebalance to maintain your allocation goal.
  • “You’re probably selling off some gold holdings just to bring your portfolio back down to the 5–10% allocation you’re targeting.”
    — Sam Taub [08:36]

Physical Gold: Doomsday Insurance or Hassle?

• Owning Bullion/Coins Pros & Cons:
  • Physical metals are a last-resort asset if financial systems collapse—but come with costs and complexities (safekeeping, selling, maintenance).
  • For most, gold ETFs or funds are simpler and easier to manage.
  • “There’s a case for physical precious metals as doomsday insurance, but as a portfolio investment, you’re probably better off buying shares of a gold ETF.”
    — Sam Taub [12:21]

The Dollar’s Slide and What’s Next

• Dollar Weakness Powers Gold:
  • “Some portion of the gold rally is just that the dollar isn’t what it used to be… The US Dollar Index is down about 11% over the past year, which is a pretty huge slide.”
    — Sam Taub [13:06]
• Big Stories to Watch:
  • Japan’s weak yen (potential coordinated intervention could push gold higher)
  • Looming US government shutdown (could further damage confidence in the dollar and boost precious metals)
  • “When we can’t get it together to fund the government… international investors lose confidence and tend to buy alternative investments like gold.”
    — Sam Taub [15:52]

2. Listener Money Question: Does the 80% Retirement Rule Still Work?

[20:42–42:16]

The Origins and Intent of the 80% Rule

• Historical Reasoning:
  • The rule was meant to account for decreased work-related expenses (commuting, work attire), not a universal truth.
  • “There was this assumption that about 20% of your pre-retirement costs were associated with work… So, 80% was ‘enough’.”
    — James Bashel [21:27]

Why It's Too Simplistic

• Life in Retirement Changes:

  • Some costs may fall, but travel and healthcare can increase.
  • Spending can surge early in retirement (travel, health) and may be unpredictable.
  • “If you look at your expenses today and say, ‘what am I going to spend in retirement?’ you’re going to have a very different list… I often have clients say, ‘well, I spend $10,000 a month. In retirement, I’ll spend $8,000…’ I say, ‘what’s going to change?’”
    — James Bashel [21:54], [22:31]

• Healthcare and Inflation Are Major Factors:

  • “A report from Fidelity found that retirees may need more than $170,000 just to cover healthcare costs in retirement.”
    — Sean Pyles [23:40]

Better Ways to Plan: Rules & Approaches

a. The 80% Rule

• Best as a starting point. Generally, too limiting (“less aspirational”) if taken as gospel.

b. The “Rule of 1000”

• For each $1,000 of desired monthly retirement income, plan to have ~$240,000 saved.
  • “They said, ‘there’s probably a 5% withdrawal rate and a 5% growth rate…’”
    — James Bashel [26:00]

c. The 4% Rule

• Safest/most conservative guideline: Withdraw 4% of your nest egg per year in retirement and, barring catastrophic markets, your assets should last.

  • “You can withdraw 4% of your retirement savings annually to fund your retirement… That 4% feels very conservative and risk averse and something that’s very manageable.”
    — James Bashel [27:43]

• Easier to calculate and communicate.

• But:

  • None are a substitute for a custom plan; most people underestimate their own expenses (by a lot!).
  • “Very few people are good at tracking their expenses… Most people underestimate how much they spend.”
    — James Bashel [28:47]

Real Planning > Rules of Thumb

• Use robust planning software and run “Monte Carlo” simulations to account for market volatility, inflation, and lifespan variability.

• “We want to have the variability of each of these factors considered in the plan—when we oversimplify, we often kill the complexity… to our detriment.”
  — James Bashel [30:01]

• Why rules of thumb are popular:

  • Simple, easy to remember, and at least a starting point for most listeners.
  • “I think people find these rules of thumb appealing because they give something to latch onto when the variables might be really hard to follow…”
    — Sean Pyles [30:40]

New Realities for Retirement

• Many Expect to Work, at Least Part-Time:

  • 37% of Americans expect to work part-time in retirement (T. Rowe Price report)—not just due to financial shortfall, but for purpose.
  • “What financial independence is: giving you the choice to do with your time what you want to.”
    — James Bashel [32:15]

• Risk of Not Saving Enough:

  • Relying solely on future work is risky (job loss, health, changing industry/AI, etc.)
  • “The opportunity to work in perpetuity is a risk you’re taking… Saving is actually a risk management tool.”
    — James Bashel [34:28]

For Those Who Struggle to Balance Saving vs. Spending

• Oversavers:
  • Don’t penny-pinch your entire retirement; strike a balance between enjoying today and safeguarding tomorrow.
  • “We are often telling our clients to spend more rather than save more… Live life throughout your life, not just for the future.”
    — James Bashel [39:02]
• Undersavers:
  • Don’t procrastinate or assume "something will work out." Start with a plan—even a basic one is better than none.

Actionable Steps & Takeaways

• Know what you spend (use tools like Monarch Money, Rocket Money, etc.).
• Use the 4% rule as a quick check, but get real with your numbers.
• For peace of mind and confidence, consider working with a financial professional who can model your unique scenario.

Key Quote on Planning:

“Having a plan is what allows you to have a baseline against which to make decisions, and that’s going to make you feel psychologically confident that you’re going to be okay. And that’s the very first step.” — James Bashel [41:21]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "When we're talking about market volatility due to these tariffs, we have to keep Taco in mind. That's the acronym for Trump Always Chickens Out." — Sam Taub [04:31]

• "There's a case for physical precious metals as doomsday insurance, but as a portfolio investment, you're probably better off buying shares of a gold ETF or something. It'll be a lot less of a hassle." — Sam Taub [12:21]

• “You’ve worked really hard to get there. You want to be able to enjoy your retirement. So when you get that 80% cap, in many ways you’re immediately starting from a more restrained base, and that's less aspirational.”
  — James Bashel [22:59]

• "Very few people are good at tracking their expenses... 95% of people underestimate how much they spend." — James Bashel [28:47]

• "We want to live life throughout our life, not just for the future." — James Bashel [39:02]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Gold and Silver: Safe Havens, but Not Guarantees — [01:45]
• Drivers of the Gold Rally — [03:05]
• Geopolitical Events and Prices — [04:31]
• Bullish Price Forecasts and Investor Risks — [06:11]
• Practical Advice for Adding Gold/Silver — [07:48]
• Physical Metals vs. ETFs — [10:11]
• The Dollar’s Impact on Gold — [13:06]
• Potential Market-Moving News Ahead — [14:08]
• Listener Q: 80% Rule and Retirement Planning — [20:42]
• The History and Shortcomings of 80% Rule — [21:27, 21:54]
• Healthcare, Inflation, and Spending Patterns — [23:40]
• Comparing Rules: 80%, Rule of 1000, 4% Rule — [26:00–27:43]
• Simulation-Based Retirement Planning — [30:01]
• Work in Retirement and Risk Management — [32:15–34:28]
• Balance Between Living and Saving — [39:02]

Final Takeaways

• For Precious Metals:

  • Gold and silver can diversify portfolios and hedge against currency decline but are not a path to fast riches.
  • Day-to-day market timing is not advised for most; long-term allocation (5–10%) suffices for “apocalypse insurance.”
  • Physical ownership makes sense for worst-case scenarios but is impractical for most investors.
  • Watch the dollar—currency moves matter as much as metal demand.

• For Retirement Planning:

  • No single rule (80%, Rule of 1000, 4% Rule) should dictate your retirement plan.
  • Use rules of thumb as a starting point, but tailor your plan to actual spending, goals, and life changes.
  • Consider professional advice and robust financial tools for confidence and peace of mind.
  • Strive for balance: Enjoy your present, but safeguard your future—don’t fall into the trap of either extreme.

Listen to future Smart Money episodes for more practical, research-backed money advice, and don’t forget—you can always send the Nerds your money questions!