NerdWallet’s Smart Money Podcast

Episode: Housing in 2026: Home Prices and Rates Are in Flux. Time to Make Your Move?
Date: January 8, 2026
Hosts & Guests: Sean Pyles, Ana Helhoski, Elizabeth Renter, Abby Badek Doyle

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the current and projected state of the U.S. housing market in 2026, focusing on home prices, mortgage rates, inventory, and overall affordability. NerdWallet’s finance journalists provide expert analysis of the economic forces shaping housing and discuss actionable strategies for buyers and homeowners. The team also addresses broader economic trends from 2025, outlines risks and opportunities in the coming year, and gives practical advice for those looking to buy, sell, or refinance a home.

1. Economic Recap: How 2025 Shaped 2026’s Housing Market

Key Economic Moments of 2025

• Universal Tariffs and Trade Policy:
  • April 2025 saw the announcement of 10% universal and reciprocal tariffs, with subsequent policy reversals and ongoing Supreme Court activity.
    • Elizabeth Renter (03:06): “If I was to choose a single moment or event, it would sort of be the cluster that surrounded April and Liberation Day… The story is still unfolding both how it impacts inflation and what the ultimate policies are going to be.”
• Government Shutdowns:
  • Affected federal workers, SNAP recipients, and even disrupted the collection and accuracy of economic data.
    • Ana Helhoski (03:50): “I also don't want to forget the effects of the government shutdown on federal workers and SNAP participants… not to mention how it impacted economic data collection and reports.”
• Federal Reserve Policy:
  • The Fed paused interest rate moves until September, when it resumed rate cuts due to rising risks in the labor market.
    • Elizabeth Renter (04:39): “That change, when they decided to cut again, really told me that they saw the risks to the labor market as rising relative to the risks to inflation, and that was significant.”

Labor Market

• The “Great Reshuffling” is over; now the labor market has chilled with low hiring and quit rates, making job changes riskier.
  • (05:24)
• Cooling in the labor market is due to both supply (worker shortages from immigration policy) and demand factors (companies pulling back). (06:11)

Inflation and Tariffs

• Core inflation remained “stickier” than expected, particularly shelter and services costs. The pass-through of tariffs to consumer inflation was slower and less dramatic than anticipated.
  • Elizabeth Renter (07:18): “Core inflation stayed stickier with housing and services inflation really holding overall inflation higher for longer.”

Outlook for Prices and Inflation

• Expect stubborn inflation in 2026 (around 3%), with shelter and healthcare costs being especially persistent.
  • (12:17)
• Wage pressures, partly due to restricted immigration, could keep inflation elevated.
  • (12:17)

Economic Risks and Uncertainties

• Potential AI bubble burst, continued economic fragility in households, and the possibility of unforeseen shocks.
  • Elizabeth Renter (14:37): “Is it a bubble? And if it is, what happens when it bursts?... There’s evidence the bulk of that spending is coming from high earners and specifically people with assets.”
• Importance of Fed independence and concerns about declining federal funding for research and innovation.
  • (16:09)

2. The 2026 U.S. Housing Market: Insights and Predictions

Recap of 2025 Housing Trends

• Start of 2025: Slow, with high home prices, low sales, and mortgage rates at ~7%.
• Spring 2025: Inventory improved significantly; July saw the highest inventory since pre-COVID times. (21:32)
• End of 2025: Mortgage rates eased into the low 6% range, briefly dipping below 6%—a psychologically important threshold for buyers.
  • Abby Badek Doyle (22:59): “When we started to see those low 6% rates toward the end of 2025… that threshold between 5 and 6 is an important threshold for buyers psychologically.”

Factors Driving the Marketplace

• Inflation, job security, mortgage/interest rates, public policy, and broad economic conditions remain key.
• Some buyers, even with lowered rates, are still holding back due to inflation and job market anxiety.
  • Abby Badek Doyle (24:29): “It’s hard to get excited about mortgage rates… if you’re still feeling the squeeze from higher grocery bills… or worried about losing your job.”
• Affordability still requires both lower rates and more available homes.

Fed Rate Cuts and Mortgage Rates

• The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, but its policy influences them.
• Mortgage markets often move ahead of announced Fed actions, anticipating cuts or hikes.
  • (25:24)

Regional Differences Matter

• There is no “national market”—local conditions (prices, inventory, homeowner risks) vary widely.
  • Abby Badek Doyle (26:33): “I’m in Pittsburgh, where the median list price is around $270,000… but with an older home, you need to budget for significant repairs or upgrades.”
• Ongoing homeowner costs (insurance, repairs, climate risks) are major factors and differ by region.

Buyer’s Market Emerging?

• End of 2025 saw a shift: Increasing inventory and decreasing demand favoring buyers.
  • (28:13)
• Pandemic-era extremes (bidding wars, waiving inspections) have faded.
• 2026: About 17% of surveyed Americans plan to buy a new home—it's possible, but challenges remain.

3. Practical Advice for Homebuyers and Homeowners

For Prospective 2026 Homebuyers

• Control What You Can:
  • Use NerdWallet’s “How Much House Can You Afford” calculator to set a realistic budget.
  • List must-haves versus areas you can compromise.
  • Consider townhomes, condos, or less popular neighborhoods for better deals.
    • Abby Badek Doyle (29:02): “If homeownership is your dream, you can make it happen. Just focus on the factors that you can control… doom scrolling does not help you. Making a budget does.”
• Assistance Programs:
  • Explore down payment and closing cost programs, some of which allow for relatively high incomes and few restrictions.
  • (30:27)

For Those Not Ready in 2026

• Renting is Okay:
  • Use the rent vs. buy calculator; in some regions, renting may be the smarter long-term financial move.
• Prep for Homebuying in 2027:

  • Focus on boosting your credit score (aim for 740+ for best rates).

  • Pay down debts, make on-time payments, and request credit line increases.

  • Build up savings—plan for down payment, closing costs, moving, and new-home expenses.

  • Use high-yield savings accounts to grow your fund.

  • Abby Badek Doyle (33:38): “My biggest regret about saving for a house is not knowing about High Yield Savings Accounts sooner…”

Advice for Refinancers

• Refinancing may be worthwhile if new mortgage rates are 0.5% to 0.75% lower than your current rate.
• Always run the numbers on a mortgage refinance calculator before proceeding.
  • (33:51)

Seasonal Home Buying/Selling Tips

• Advantages of Buying in Winter:
  • Less competition, more motivated sellers, potential cost savings on movers and contractors.
  • Inventory is lower, but buyers can take more time and may have negotiation leverage.
  • Abby Badek Doyle (35:05): “Buying a house in January can actually be a smart move… there’s less competition… buyers might be able to have a little more leverage to score a better price or better terms.”
• For Sellers:
  • If possible, wait until spring for higher demand and more action.
  • Use winter months to tackle repairs and improve market readiness.

4. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Elizabeth Renter (12:17): “Inflation is likely to remain high throughout the year, though it’s unlikely to get much higher. So we’re thinking around 3%… Inflation is likely to remain sticky due to high shelter and healthcare costs.”
• Sean Pyles (31:14): “We want people to make sure that home buying is something that fits into their budget in a reasonable way.”
• Abby Badek Doyle (29:02): “If homeownership is your dream, you can make it happen. Just focus on the factors that you can control.”
• Abby Badek Doyle (35:05): “Buying a house in January can actually be a smart move… buyers might be able to have a little more leverage to score a better price or better terms.”

5. Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:15: Economic recap of 2025 (tariffs, Fed policy, labor market)
• 07:13: Inflation and tariffs deep dive
• 12:17: 2026 inflation outlook
• 21:32: 2025 housing market recap and inventory trends
• 25:24: How Fed rate cuts affect mortgage rates
• 26:33: Regional housing market differences
• 29:02: Tips for buying in 2026
• 30:27: Assistance programs for homebuyers
• 31:45: Credit and savings tips for buyers-to-be
• 33:51: Advice for refinancing
• 35:05: Buying or selling homes in winter vs. spring

Episode Takeaways

• 2026 presents both continued challenges and opportunities in the housing market.
• Market conditions are improving for buyers, but affordability remains a concern.
• Success depends on focusing on factors within your control: realistic budgeting, good credit, robust savings, and strategic timing.
• Local market knowledge and assistance programs can offer meaningful help.

Next Episode Teaser:
The series continues with a focus on credit cards in 2026—what you need to know to optimize your credit and reward strategies.