Podcast Summary: NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast
Episode: Understanding 2026 Housing Pressure Points and Finding Your “Enough” Number for Retirement
Date: December 4, 2025
Hosts: Sean Pyles, CFP® & Elizabeth Ayola
Guests: Ana Helhoski, Holden Lewis, Kate Wood, Paul (Listener)
Overview
This episode tackles two distinct but timely themes in personal finance:
- Housing Market Pressures for 2026 — A roundtable of NerdWallet’s mortgage and housing experts reviews key developments in U.S. homeownership, affordability crises past and future, and what buyers and owners can expect approaching 2026.
- Finding Your “Enough” Number for Retirement — Listener Paul joins live to ask: When can you safely coast on your retirement savings instead of aggressively saving? The hosts help unpack both the financial logic and the emotional side of “CoastFI.”
Key Discussion Points & Insights
I. 2026 Housing Pressure Points
A. The Evolution of Housing Affordability
- Every Generation Faces a Crisis:
Holden Lewis reflects that “every generation has an affordability crisis… In 1981 the 30-year mortgage rates exceeded 18%. So houses did cost less back then, but that's because they had to be with those interest rates.” (05:50) - The Legacy of Low Rates:
The ultra-low mortgage rates of 2020-2021 created a surge of buyers and rapid price escalation. Now, even as rates rise, prices remain high as homeowners are reluctant to sell at a loss. (07:40) - “We are kind of in this unaffordability era that is just going to take time for us to get out of.” — Holden Lewis (08:22)
B. The Next Affordability Crisis: Climate
- Climate-Driven Insurance Costs:
“Home insurance premiums… are making it difficult for people to afford their homes, even homes they bought several years ago. That's already happening.” — Holden Lewis (08:53) - Areas like California (wildfires), the Gulf Coast (hurricanes), and much of the Midwest (hail, storms) are seeing dramatic increases in insurance costs.
C. Changing Demographics of Homebuying
- Older First-Time Buyers:
Kate Wood highlights: “In 1981, median age of first-time homebuyers was 29. In 2025, the median age hit 40… And for repeat buyers, from 36 in 1981 to 62 in 2025.” (11:17) - Childless Households:
“Last year, among all home buyers, only 24% had children under 18... in 1985, 58% did.” This shift challenges the tradition of “spring homebuying” tied to school calendars. (12:21)
D. Predictions for 2026
- Preferred Scenario:
“I'm really, really crossing my fingers that mortgage rates hang out around 6% all year in 2026. If that happens, we will see more homeowners… put their houses on the market.” — Holden Lewis (13:03) - Ongoing Pressure from Taxes & Insurance:
“Average escrow costs [taxes + insurance] were up 45% from 2020 to 2025 across the U.S... In Florida, 70% increase.” — Kate Wood (14:28) - Advice for Buyers:
“You’re really going to want to look beyond the list price and the interest rate. You’re going to want to look into property taxes, insurance, weather data...” — Kate Wood (15:02)
E. Personal Retirement Reflections from Holden
- Modest living (older cars, smaller home since 1999) is cited as a key enabler for early retirement at 62. (16:05)
Memorable Moment:
“Instead of living large, living small... it just, it really, really did help, I think to be able to retire at age 62.” — Holden Lewis (16:05)
II. Listener Feature — “When Is It Really Enough to Coast Into Retirement?” (CoastFI)
A. Introducing Paul: CoastFI Aspirant
- Paul’s Background:
Lifelong diligent saver, lived and worked in Dubai (low living costs, high savings), now age 48, almost $3 million saved, primarily in taxable brokerage accounts. (21:09) - The Dilemma:
“I'd like to stop saving now... at least reduce the amount... by the time I get to 65, I should be doing okay. But there's a lot of things that make me nervous with it.” — Paul (21:42)
B. The Emotional Side of “Enough”
- Anxiety About Stopping:
“I'm scared that… if I do [reduce saving], then I’ll find myself at an older age where I still need to work... you never know if I'll need that money.” — Paul (22:33) - Elizabeth Ayola encourages reflection on underlying fears: “Sometimes we have money stories or money fears… that are creating those anxieties.”
- Acknowledgment: Paul hasn’t personally experienced scarcity but remains concerned about the unknowns of the future. (24:01)
C. Expert Responses
- Financial Planning Tools:
Sean Pyles recommends a financial advisor and Monte Carlo simulations: “It spits you out a percentage of how likely you are to succeed in your retirement planning.” (24:16) - Balance Enjoyment and Security:
“Maybe just taking a little bit at a time out and setting yourself some short and medium term goals...” — Elizabeth Ayola (25:59) - Paul's Aspirations: Own a home, upgrade car, travel more, enjoy life without “nitpicking” budgets.
D. Structured Recommendations
- Track progress with periodic (e.g., annual) checkups — “Baby steps are smart because you don’t want to shock your system.” (31:50)
- Ensure tax diversity:
Max out tax-advantaged accounts (401(k), Roth), balance with taxable brokerage. - Joint planning as a couple:
“Working with a certified financial planner can be really helpful because they can look at your wife’s information too, see what you both have asset-wise...” (27:39) - Emotional permission to enjoy:
“As much as we are here for planning, we cannot control the future… you have to give yourself a pat on the back…” — Elizabeth Ayola (32:47)
E. Notable Quotes & Moments
- “I’ve still got almost 20 years left, so I don’t really know what’s going to happen… inflation… cost of living…” — Paul (29:11)
- “I'm trying to find something that you're doing wrong and I'm having a hard time, but it seems like you still have this lingering financial anxiety.” — Sean Pyles (31:04)
- “If I’m going to cut back… I’ll try to enjoy my life more… another, a nicer car… travel more—maybe go away three times a year.” — Paul (32:27)
Timestamps for Key Segments
| Time | Segment Description | |----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:09 | News roundtable begins: Year in housing with Helhoski, Lewis, Wood| | 05:44 | What’s always true about the housing market (Holden’s reflections)| | 08:53 | The next affordability crisis: climate risk and insurance | | 11:17 | Demographics of homebuying shift—first-time/median ages | | 12:48 | 2026 housing outlook & predictions | | 15:36 | Holden on modest living and retirement planning | | 16:47 | Transition to listener Q&A: “CoastFI”—saving enough for retirement| | 19:01 | Listener Paul describes his financial journey | | 22:33 | Paul’s anxiety: the emotional side of CoastFi | | 24:16 | Advice: Financial planning & Monte Carlo simulations | | 25:29 | Using saved money to support lifestyle goals | | 27:39 | Joint retirement planning as a couple | | 29:41 | Portfolio diversification & tax strategy discussion | | 31:50 | Gradual adjustment vs abrupt change to savings habits | | 32:47 | Giving yourself permission to enjoy your money | | 34:15 | The challenge of retiring abroad with currency changes | | 34:41 | Paul’s next steps—taking “baby steps” toward less aggressive saving|
Tone and Original Moments
The show maintains its friendly, “nerdy” tone—relatable, accessible, and candid.
Example:
“I'm trying to find something that you're doing wrong and I'm having a hard time…” (Sean Pyles, 31:04).
Listener Paul’s vulnerability around money anxiety, despite “doing everything right,” drives a sincere and supportive conversation.
Closing Guidance
- On Housing:
Don’t expect a “return to normal” in 2026—watch for climate impacts, demographic shifts, and always look beyond the sticker price. - On Retirement ‘Enough’:
If you’ve done the math (and/or work with a CFP) and still feel anxious, make gradual changes, reflect on your goals, and allow yourself enjoyment. - Featured Advice:
“As much as we are here for planning, we cannot control the future… you have to give yourself a pat on the back…” (Elizabeth Ayola, 32:47)
For more detailed financial planning or to share your questions, reach out to NerdWallet at podcast@nerdwallet.com or 901-730-6373.