Podcast Summary: New Books Network
Episode: Dani Belo, "Russian Warfare in the 21st Century" (Routledge, 2025)
Host: Stephen Sakiewicz
Guest: Dani Belo, Assistant Professor of International Relations and Security, Director of the Global Policy Horizons Research Lab at Webster University
Date: September 17, 2025
Episode Overview
This episode features an in-depth conversation with Dani Belo about his latest book, Russian Warfare in the 21st Century: An Incentive Opportunity Intervention Model. The discussion revolves around understanding Russian military and foreign policy strategies post-Soviet collapse, misconceptions in Western analysis, the realities of "gray zone" operations, and the lasting implications of Russian actions in Ukraine and beyond. The guest emphasizes the need for deeper "strategic empathy" and nuanced understanding by policymakers, scholars, and the public to inform future security and diplomatic efforts.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Author’s Background and Motivation
- [02:52] Dani Belo shares his path from British Columbia to specializing in Russian security policy, motivated by curiosity about why nations opt for—and persist in—armed conflict.
- Career focus increasingly shifted to the post-Soviet space, particularly Russia, given its prominent role in global affairs after 2014.
2. Russia’s Evolving Role as a Military Power
- [05:10] Russia was widely considered a “has-been” in the 1990s, but post-2014 events proved its enduring influence.
- Surprises over the timing and decisiveness of interventions, notably in Ukraine, demonstrate the need for more accurate models of Russian decision-making.
“Even in the group among the people who said that Russia is going to be intervening militarily … they were inaccurate by approximately eight years.” – Dani Belo [05:44]
3. Western Misconceptions About Russian Strategy
- [08:04] Overreliance on simple geopolitical explanations (e.g., NATO encroachment vs. deterrence) ignores cultural, ideological, and historical drivers.
- Effective understanding requires integrating both geopolitics and affective, identity-based factors.
“It’s not that Russia only behaves based on geopolitical calculations … it's an amalgamation of both.” – Dani Belo [09:38]
- Persistent Cold War stereotypes, such as the “Bond villain” narrative of Putin, continue to skew analysis.
4. Defining "Gray Zone" Operations
- [11:29-12:58] “Gray zone” refers to conflicts that fall between peace and full-scale war—marked by cyber operations, information warfare, and support for local movements.
- Russia’s version is rooted in the Soviet concept of “active measures” (ideological subversion, information operations, etc.), focusing on shaping conditions over decades.
“Gray zone is a format of conflict that on one hand escapes the definition of peace … but is also a type of conflict that is not a state of total war.” – Dani Belo [12:04]
- Western terms like “gray zone” and “hybrid warfare” are not used by Russians, who favor “active measures” and “network-centric warfare.”
- Each side sees the other as the aggressor; Russians often view themselves as retreating, not advancing, which fuels their resolve.
“From Russia’s perspective, it’s actually on the retreat because it looks at its own history … So it's quite a difference in worldviews.” – Dani Belo [16:53]
5. The Ukraine Conflict: Case Study of Russian Decision-Making
- [25:37–32:17] The book explores Crimea, Donbas, and Odessa:
- Perceived “protector” role varies by region: strongest in Crimea, less in Donbas, and lower in Odessa.
- Intervention intensity correlates with local secessionist or irredentist movements and cost-benefit analysis.
- 2022 invasion did not signify abandonment of hybrid/gray zone tactics—rather, these continued alongside more overt military action.
“It’s very difficult to treat what's happening now as independent from what was happening before … It's simply at a much more escalated pace and intensity.” – Dani Belo [30:31]
6. Information & Global Influence Operations
- [33:17] Russia prioritizes shaping the information space, including efforts to fracture public trust and influence perceptions, especially in Europe, Africa, and Asia.
- Use of non-state actors (e.g., Wagner Group) as force multipliers in Africa and as alternatives to Western engagement for local authorities.
“We can see that there is significant influence on the political landscape in Africa. … Not only do we provide an alternative, but we provide one that has fewer strings attached.” – Dani Belo [36:13]
- Russian narratives resonate with non-Western audiences who may see Western/NATO policies with skepticism.
7. The Enduring Impact of the War in Ukraine
- [42:25] Despite failures and high costs, Russia’s adaptation and persistence reinforce its capacity and willingness to project power—possibly increasing reliance on hard and soft power moving forward.
“What we're seeing is an incredible amount of adaptability … Russia is still able to absorb all of these costs without collapsing.” – Dani Belo [42:25]
- Contrasts Russian entrenchment versus Western (NATO/US) “shock and awe then disengage” approach:
“In Russia's case, … there's an entrenching that happens … and the costs increase … the persistence and the resolve is maintained.” – Dani Belo [45:54]
8. The Legacy of WWII and Social Fabric
- [48:07] Deep societal memory of WWII shapes Russian attitudes towards existential threats and supports narratives of defiance and resilience.
9. The Future of NATO-Russia Relations and Long-Term Trends
- [50:50] Change in Russian leadership isn’t likely to alter fundamental policies—attitudes toward the near abroad are deeply entrenched.
- Need to move beyond viewing all issues through a Cold War/imperial lens and toward policies accounting for ethnic minorities, national identities, and resilience.
“It is not entirely clear that Russia's behavior would change with a changing of government … it's very much a part of the social fabric.” – Dani Belo [50:50]
- Holistic approaches—focusing on inclusion and preventing social/economic exclusion—can provide more robust deterrence than military measures alone.
10. Looking Forward: Research and Policy Implications
- [60:38] Belo calls for more foreign policy modeling and deeper analysis of non-traditional security dimensions—such as ethnic identity and societal resilience—across multiple contexts.
“The idea of deterrence, because again, in the midst of gray zone conflict, deterrence is profoundly important. How do we prevent … different types of interventions?” – Dani Belo [60:38]
Notable Quotes & Moments
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On Western misunderstanding:
- “We really have to rethink many of these assumptions because the world … is multipolar. The diversity of the region also has to be accounted for.” – Danny Belo [10:33]
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On strategic empathy:
- “It's the ability to understand. … That understanding is crucial if there’s going to be effective conflict management.” – Danny Belo [21:51]
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On adapting strategies:
- “No plan survives first contact with the enemy.” – Stephen Sakiewicz [32:03]
- “Russia has adapted … with the same mindset and with the same pattern of decision making, simply to an environment where it sees a much more existential threat.” – Danny Belo [32:17]
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On the need for new paradigms:
- “The old … end of history thesis—that's no longer the case, that no longer works. We need new paradigms now.” – Stephen Sakiewicz [61:48]
Timestamps for Important Segments
- [02:52] Introduction to author’s background and book genesis
- [05:10–07:52] Russia’s resurgence as a military power and Western surprise
- [08:04–10:33] Misconceptions and the need for a nuanced view
- [11:29–13:09] Defining gray zone operations and their modern relevance
- [16:53] Differing worldviews: Russia as aggressor or retreating power?
- [25:37–32:17] Case study: Crimea, Donbas, and Odessa – differing Russian strategies
- [36:13] Russian influence operations in Africa and Asia
- [42:25–45:54] The war’s impact on Russian resilience and policy adaptation
- [50:50] Future of NATO–Russia relations; social fabric and leadership change
- [58:11] Integrating ethnicity and culture into deterrence and security thinking
- [60:38] Final thoughts and the way forward for research and policy
Closing: Future Work
- Dani Belo is editing a forthcoming handbook on gray zone conflict, with contributions from global scholars and practitioners, to further explore the future of conflict and deterrence research.
- The host expresses interest in future conversations as these pivotal issues continue to evolve.
This summary captures the major points from the episode and offers a structured guide to the rich and complex discussion on Russian warfare in the modern era.