Podcast Summary – Democracy After Illiberalism: A Warning from Poland
Podcast: New Books Network – People Power Politics Podcast
Host: Tim Haughton
Guests: Stanley Bill (University of Cambridge), Ben Stanley (SWPS University in Warsaw)
Date: October 28, 2025
Overview
This episode centers on Poland’s recent political evolution—its encounter with “democratic illiberalism” under the Law and Justice (PiS) government (2015–2023), the defeat of PiS, and the challenges facing the post-illiberal Tusk government. The discussion reflects on democratic backsliding, opposition mobilization, and the difficulties of democratic restoration, with broader lessons for liberal democracy in Europe.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
The Law and Justice Government (2015–2023): Democratic Illiberalism
[03:45–11:05] Stanley Bill
- PiS won the 2015 election with a mere 38% but gained an unprecedented majority, enabling sweeping changes.
- Three Pillars of PiS's "Good Change":
- Political & Institutional Overhaul:
- Seized control of judiciary (stacked Constitutional Tribunal), public media, civil service.
- Justified as correcting an “undemocratic liberal monopoly.”
- Actions often seen, even by neutral observers, as contravening legal norms.
- Culture and Values – The Cultural Backlash:
- Presented themselves as defenders of Polish tradition, Christianity, and national identity.
- Fought against rapid social changes: LGBT+ rights, abortion, migration.
- Framed as restoring “traditional values” against external threats.
- Economic & Social Policy:
- Criticized economic inequality and urban–rural divides.
- Flagship policies like universal child benefit ("500+"), retirement age reforms.
- Redistributive approach was very popular.
- Political & Institutional Overhaul:
- Despite controversy, PiS improved its vote share in 2019 to 44%, showing the popularity of certain policies.
"This was a revolution that would overthrow this unhealthy, undemocratic liberal domination ... delivered to a very positive reception overall from the electorate." – Stanley Bill [10:57]
The 2023 Parliamentary Election: Why PiS Lost Power but Retained Support
[11:40–16:49] Ben Stanley
- PiS actually maintained a strong vote share, coming first, but could not form a coalition—thus losing power.
- Loss attributed more to coalition dynamics than collapse in popularity.
- Decline in PiS’s “competent governance” image post-2020, especially after controversial abortion ruling and handling of COVID-19.
- For many voters, the PiS era felt like “politics as usual,” with scandals prominent only to a subset of society and international observers.
- High youth turnout and strong mobilization of the opposition were decisive.
"What PiS lost was not so much a plurality as the ability to form a governing coalition... they managed to preserve much of their support." – Ben Stanley [11:53]
PiS’s Resilient Support: Why Voters Stayed Loyal
[18:25–21:36] Ben Stanley
- PiS’s social policy delivery (“500+”, retirement age) created lasting credit with voters.
- Polarization is extreme in Poland: PiS’s core electorate is loyal out of identity as much as ideology.
- PiS is still seen as the credible party of the right, keeping a firm base plus swing moderate conservatives.
"A lot of people vote for Law and Justice not necessarily out of ideological conviction so much as intense association with the party itself." – Ben Stanley [19:53]
Checks and Constraints on Illiberalism
[21:36–26:07] Discussion
- EU membership, lack of constitutional majority, and civil society resistance limited PiS’s ambitions.
- PiS’s overreach, especially on abortion, triggered broad opposition mobilization.
- Internal and external pressures (from church, party MPs) influenced contentious decisions.
“There was almost a kind of rebellion of a rather large group of PiS MPs of a more sort of Catholic conservative ilk who pushed this issue [abortion].” – Stanley Bill [24:51]
The Tusk Government & The Post-Illiberal Trilemma
[26:53–30:39] Ben Stanley
- Post-Illiberal Trilemma: The new government must choose between being effective, acting legally, and acting quickly—hard to achieve all three.
- Acting swiftly and legally often means acting ineffectually; acting effectively and legally can be slow; acting quickly and effectively may strain legality.
- The challenge is compounded by a hostile president with the power to block reforms.
- Militant Democracy: The notion that, to restore democracy, some democratic norms may need bending—a controversial and risky proposition.
"How do you act effectively and swiftly without compromising the very legal procedures and principles you've committed yourself to uphold?" – Ben Stanley [28:14]
Assessment of the Tusk Government (2023–2025)
[31:18–36:09] Stanley Bill
- The new government, a coalition, is less united, more cautious.
- Attempts to reclaim captured institutions (media, judiciary) often mirrored PiS’s approach, drawing criticism and disappointing centrists.
- Couldn’t move on issues like abortion due to internal divisions and the president’s veto.
- Public dissatisfaction is reflected in poor approval ratings and the government’s defeat in the 2025 presidential race.
"There's an interesting reversal of roles... peace and its supporters are attacking the TUS government as an existential threat to democracy, using the same kind of language as the opposition under peace was using about the peace government." – Stanley Bill [31:45]
The Importance and Power of the Polish Presidency
[36:09–39:38] Ben Stanley & Stanley Bill
- The president, though mainly ceremonial, wields real power via:
- Vetoing legislation (needs a 3/5 parliamentary override, usually unattainable).
- Sending laws for Constitutional Tribunal review (delaying/blocking).
- In highly polarized environments and government–president cohabitation, the presidency is a potent brake.
"In such a polarized political environment, bipartisan issues are so few and far between." – Ben Stanley [37:21]
The 2025 Presidential Election: Analysis
[41:00–48:14] Discussion
- The PiS-backed candidate, Novrodsky, narrowly won over Tusk’s Tchaskovsky, thanks to:
- PiS's strategic selection of a candidate attractive to far-right (Confederatia) voters.
- Mobilization of young male voters who supported the far right in the first round.
- The government side’s complacency and public dissatisfaction with Tusk’s coalition.
- Trzaskovsky’s premature victory claim symbolized the overconfidence and disconnect from underlying voter sentiment.
"There was a sense that perhaps more moderate candidates were unwilling to commit... Navrosky was very much a kind of residual candidate ... But somebody who was going to be able to appeal unapologetically to much of the far right... was in fact a significant reason of his success." – Ben Stanley [45:29]
Comparative Lessons for Democracy and Democratic Backsliding
[48:14–54:09] Ben Stanley & Stanley Bill
- Poland’s “illiberal revolution” shows how fragile democratic institutions and norms can be—even in established democracies.
- PiS’s piecemeal institutional chipping away was more effective and less contested than expected; their playbook is imitated elsewhere (notably in the US and UK).
- The “proof of concept” is a warning: liberal democratic erosion is easier and more contagious than previously believed.
- Adoption of right-wing rhetoric by centrist/liberal actors (e.g. on migration) may defuse opposition narratives short-term but can strengthen the far-right in the long run.
"A lot of this is very experiential; they started sort of undermining some institutions, realizing what they could get away with..." – Ben Stanley [49:30]
"It really is an open question of whether this act of moving the whole window to the right essentially seeds the ground to one's political opponents..." – Stanley Bill [52:19]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On the Trilemma of Democratic Restoration:
"Sometimes in order to act effectively and act quickly, it's necessary to either bend or to break the law... It's more difficult to do that when you are a government that's come into power promising to restore liberal democracy." – Ben Stanley [28:20] -
On Popular Support for PiS:
"For a lot of people, Law and Justice is still perceived as a relatively normal party that can incorporate right wing and central right interests." – Ben Stanley [20:35] -
On the Reversal of Allegations of “Threats to Democracy”:
"There's fierce criticism of the government for exceeding the bounds of the democratic processes... using the same kind of language as the opposition under PiS was using about the PiS government." – Stanley Bill [31:36] -
On Comparative Relevance:
"Poland has served as a kind of proof of concept for this, chipping away at the integrity of liberal democratic institutions and norms..." – Ben Stanley [50:07]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 03:45 — PiS's rise and actions, “Good Change” explained (Stanley Bill)
- 11:40 — How PiS lost power and opposition’s electoral success (Ben Stanley)
- 18:25 — Reasons for PiS’s persistent support: policy and polarization (Ben Stanley)
- 22:45 — Abortion ruling and internal pressures in PiS (Stanley Bill)
- 26:53 — The “post-illiberal trilemma” and “militant democracy” defined (Ben Stanley)
- 31:18 — Tusk government’s record and popular discontent (Stanley Bill)
- 36:40 — Powers of the Polish presidency, impact on governance (Ben Stanley)
- 41:00 — The 2025 presidential election outcome dissected (Stanley Bill and Ben Stanley)
- 48:14 — Comparative lessons for democracy under threat (Ben Stanley and Stanley Bill)
Flow & Tone
The conversation is expert-led, nuanced, and richly contextualized, balancing deep Polish knowledge with comparative democratic theory and realpolitik. The speakers debate hypotheticals, reflect on their own research, and candidly discuss both strategic missteps and structural challenges in confronting illiberalism.
Final Takeaway
Poland’s recent political history stands as both an example and a warning—showcasing how relatively robust democratic systems can be subverted from within, how difficult it is to restore lost norms, and how attempts to defend democracy can involve tough trade-offs. Its lessons resonate across Europe and beyond, calling for vigilance and humility in the face of democratic backsliding.