Podcast Summary

Podcast: New Books Network

Episode: Erik Lin-Greenberg, The Remote Revolution: Drones and Modern Statecraft (Cornell UP, 2025)
Date: December 19, 2025
Host: Eleonora Matiacci
Guest: Erik Lin-Greenberg, MIT Department of Political Science

Episode Overview

This episode features a conversation with Professor Erik Lin-Greenberg about his new book, The Remote Revolution: Drones and Modern Statecraft. The discussion explores how drones are transforming the calculus of military force, reshaping norms of international conflict, and prompting new questions about escalation, risk, and the future of statecraft. Professor Lin-Greenberg challenges prevailing wisdom about military technology and explains the real-world and methodological innovations behind his research.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Challenging Conventional Wisdom (02:29–05:02)

• Origin of the Book:
  Lin-Greenberg’s experience as a U.S. Air Force officer who worked with drones shaped his academic inquiry. He noticed how drone use was expanding beyond counterinsurgency/terrorism into broader statecraft.

• Prevailing vs. Book’s Argument:
  The dominant belief is that drones make conflict more likely by lowering operational risk and cost, thus potentially destabilizing security environments. Lin-Greenberg argues instead that while drones do increase the frequency of militarized interactions, they do not necessarily escalate into larger conflicts.

  “The increased deployment of military technologies doesn’t always seem to escalate across the threshold into conventional conflict.” (B, 04:55)

2. The Dual Dynamic: Moral Hazard & Escalation Control Effects (05:02–08:24)

• Moral Hazard Effect:
  Decision-makers use drones more readily, since drones pose less risk to personnel and national prestige compared to piloted aircraft or ground troops.

• Escalation Control Effect:
  States tend to show restraint when their drones are shot down by adversaries, holding back from strong retaliatory steps.

• Illustrative Case – U.S. Drones Over China (Cold War):

  • Drones used for intelligence over China, leading to a “moral hazard” of more frequent usage.
  • When China shot down U.S. drones and publicized the events, the U.S. generally ignored these incidents, demonstrating escalation control.

  "There’s not a U.S. pilot in a Chinese prison, so just sit it out and let it play out." (B, 07:52, paraphrasing archival statement)

• Resulting Pattern:
  Drones enable “more but milder” conflicts—militarized encounters are more frequent but tend to stay limited.

3. The Broader Stakes: Why Drones Matter to Everyone (09:12–10:03)

• Drones as a Fact of Daily Life:
  Recent events, such as airport disruptions in Europe and drone attacks in the Middle East, show how drones’ impact extends beyond policymakers and militaries to ordinary citizens.

  “Drones are just now very much part of everyday life for everyday people. And the book sets out to explain the impact drones have.” (B, 09:56)

• Expansion of the Battlefield:
  Drones blur the traditional concept of the battlefield, affecting commercial interests and civilian safety.

4. Surprising Findings During the Research (10:50–12:58)

• On Signaling and Resolve:
  Leaders worry about credibility if many drones are lost with no response, sparking surprisingly nuanced debates about what constitutes resolve when “skin is not in the game.”

  "How do we think about resolve when you have these assets that are designed not to put skin in the game?" (B, 12:19)

• Some scholars argue that persistent drone operations themselves signal resolve even if individual losses are tolerated.

5. Methodological Innovation: Research Design (12:58–16:04)

• Combining Methods:
  Lin-Greenberg uses a multi-method approach: historical case studies, elite survey experiments, and innovative war games with national security practitioners.

• Overcoming Secrecy & Data Limitations:

  • Archival research helps illuminate past drone use and policy debates.
  • War games and surveys simulate plausible scenarios, gathering structured data from informed participants.
  • Each method compensates for the limitations of the others, providing both quantitative and qualitative insights.

  “Both the war games and the experiments allowed me to construct these hypothetical but really plausible scenarios…” (B, 14:58)

6. Anticipating Critiques & Boundaries of the Theory (16:04–18:25)

• Pushback #1: Risk of Escalation

  • Critics argue more interactions still carry the risk of spiraling out of control.
  • Lin-Greenberg: His claim is probabilistic—drone interactions "on average" remain at lower escalatory levels, but there’s always a chance things can escalate.

  “I’m not trying to say that escalation will never happen... but instead, on average, operations and signaling involving drones... are likely to stay at these relatively low rungs on the escalation ladder.” (B, 17:10)

• Pushback #2: Drones as Just Another Technology

  • Are drones unique? Lin-Greenberg: Yes, due to their multifunctionality, prevalence, and accessibility compared to satellites or cruise missiles.

7. Policy Implications & Future Risks (18:25–21:31)

• International Law & Norms:
  The proliferation of drones may require new norms and legal frameworks. Current law treats manned and unmanned aircraft similarly, despite differences in use and risk.

  • Need for agreements on “deconfliction” and clarifying incidents, especially with growing autonomy.

• Shifts in Arms Markets & Power:
  Nontraditional exporters like Turkey and Iran now supply drones globally, reshaping patterns of influence.

• Air Defense Dilemmas:
  Expensive air defenses are often wasted on cheap drones. Changing the cost-exchange dynamic in favor of defenders is a major challenge.

  “As we see more and more drones operating, this is only going to pose a greater risk to military operations around the world.” (B, 21:22)

8. Intellectual Rewards & Collaborative Research (21:31–23:14)

• Experiments in War Gaming:
  Lin-Greenberg found integrating experimental design into war gaming especially rewarding—providing both rich data and opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration.

  “It allowed me to generate really interesting data. People had these emotional responses you might not necessarily think they would in an entirely fictional setting.” (B, 22:03)

• Building an Academic Community:
  This work helped launch MIT’s Wargaming Lab, fostering further research and training.

9. Current and Future Research (23:23–24:09)

• Next Book Project:
  With Theo Milianopoulos, Lin-Greenberg is exploring how states manage eroding secrecy in the age of commercial satellites, smartphones, and pervasive data.

  "The book tries to explore how states are navigating these complex sets of challenges that at sometimes are helpful for states and other times are harmful." (B, 24:01)

Notable Quotes

• On the dual effects:

  “On one hand, you have this moral hazard effect... pulling in the other direction, you have this escalation control effect.” (B, 05:33)

• On the empirical richness of the book:

  “The research design really emerged in part out of necessity. There’s a unique set of challenges that arise when you’re studying emerging military technologies.” (B, 13:46)

Key Timestamps

• 02:29 — Introduction to the book’s argument and personal motivation
• 05:02 — Explanation of dual dynamic: moral hazard vs escalation control
• 07:00 — Cold War US-China drone example
• 09:12 — Why drones matter to the general public
• 11:25 — Surprising insights on signaling resolve
• 12:58 — Research design and mixed-method approach
• 16:33 — Anticipated critiques and responses
• 19:08 — Policy implications and emerging risks
• 21:45 — Rewards and challenges of war gaming research
• 23:23 — New research on secrecy and transparency in international affairs

Memorable Moments

• The archival anecdote of a US Air Force Colonel’s pragmatic attitude toward drone losses (07:52)
• Discussion of war games eliciting real emotions among participants (22:03)
• Recap of drone-induced airport disruptions (09:16)

This summary covers the substantive content of the episode, highlighting key arguments, real-world relevance, research innovations, and implications for today’s rapidly shifting security environment.