Podcast Summary

Podcast: New Books Network
Host: Dr. Miranda Melcher
Guest: Dr. Catherine (Kat) Chelminski
Episode: Governing Energy Transitions: A Study of Regime Complex Effectiveness on Geothermal Development in Indonesia and the Philippines
Publication: Cambridge University Press, 2025
Date: December 12, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode explores Dr. Catherine Chelminski’s new book investigating how global governance—particularly complex and overlapping regimes—can effectively facilitate clean energy transitions in developing countries, using geothermal energy in Indonesia and the Philippines as case studies. The conversation traverses international and domestic politics, funding mechanisms, and the practical barriers and opportunities for deploying renewable energy, with a focus on how regime complexity fosters or hinders real transformational change.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Inspiration and Framing of the Book

• Chelminski’s Background: Visiting Fellow at Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab; PhD in International Relations (Geneva). Experience in academia, clean energy industry, government, and international organizations.
• Genesis of the Book: Sparked by policy and multilateral shifts (e.g., U.S. exit from Kyoto Protocol) and the proliferation of international institutions in energy and climate in the 2010s.
• Why Focus on EMDEs (Emerging Market and Developing Economies):
  • EMDEs account for 2/3 of global emissions, 90% of the population, and 40% of global economy (04:31).
  • Clean energy governance’s impacts on these countries is under-studied, especially for “underdog” countries like Indonesia and lesser-studied technologies like geothermal.

Quote:
"A lot of investment to date has been concentrated in larger EMDEs like China, India, and Brazil. So I was interested in looking at some of the underdogs or under-researched cases of large carbon emitters like Indonesia, and also some of the under-researched technologies like geothermal."
— Dr. Catherine Chelminski, 05:43

2. Research Questions and Analytical Layers

• Two Levels of Inquiry (07:16):
  1. International Relations Theory Level: Do complex, fragmented governance structures work as effectively as binding legal treaties in catalyzing energy transitions?
  2. Empirical Level: How do international regime complexes affect domestic barriers in EMDEs?
• Novel Approach: Moves the literature from regime creation/analysis at the international level to effects and effectiveness at the domestic level.

3. Why Indonesia and the Philippines?

• Indonesia: 5th largest global carbon emitter; significant fossil fuel and geothermal resources (40% of global geothermal reserves); history of fossil fuel dependency.
• Philippines: Historically the 2nd largest producer of geothermal energy (recently surpassed by Indonesia); uniquely high climate vulnerability and energy insecurity; relies heavily on imports for oil/gas.
• Comparative Value: Both countries are located on the Pacific "Ring of Fire" but have diverging resource endowments, energy policies, and market maturity (11:00–14:57).

Quote:
"The puzzle is: the Philippines is the second-largest producer in the world, despite Indonesia having superior reserves... the nuance and competition between these two countries for that place was a really interesting case."
— Dr. Catherine Chelminski, 13:24

4. What is the Clean Energy Regime Complex?

• Definition: A sphere of governance made up of multiple overlapping, fragmented international institutions (not centered on a hierarchical treaty), involving multilateral, bilateral, and transnational actors (15:21).

• Historical Phases:

  1. Dissatisfaction and Institution-Building: US exits Kyoto, institutions proliferate to fill gaps.
  2. Norm Diffusion through Proliferation: Creation of networks like REN21, REAP; increased transnational governance.
  3. Convergence and Institutionalization: Development of IRENA, Sustainable Energy for All, and more formalized support for clean energy.

• Gaps/Overlaps: Fragmentation can lead to turf wars, duplicative or missed financing, and uneven global access.

Quote:
"The clean energy regime complex is...characterized by proliferating and overlapping international institutions and fragmented complex governance, but lacking a formalized hierarchical structure."
— Dr. Catherine Chelminski, 15:22

5. Assessing Effectiveness: Framework and Criteria

• Three Mechanisms of Effectiveness (21:43):

  1. Utility Modifier: Finance—investment/project funding for renewable projects.
  2. Social Learning: Policy advising and norm diffusion (e.g., World Bank gov’t advisement).
  3. Capacity Building: Technical training for ministries/industry; workforce and bureaucratic skill development.

• Measurement Focus:

  • Growth in installed geothermal capacity over time.
  • Implementation (not just setting) of regulatory reforms at national/subnational levels.

Quote:
"Policy targets are great...I look at the implementation all the way to adoption and then into actionable change on the ground."
— Dr. Catherine Chelminski, 26:15

6. Why Focus on Geothermal Energy?

• Geothermal Advantages:
  • Mature, established technology (70+ years in use).
  • Baseload, non-intermittent power — can substitute for fossil fuels unlike wind/solar.
  • Both Indonesia and the Philippines are geothermally rich (27:05–31:32).
  • Uniquely high barriers and risks (esp. exploration drilling costs & uncertainties).
  • Financially challenging, making it a strategic test case for effectiveness of international support mechanisms.

Quote:
"A really important aspect of why geothermal is so important is that it provides baseload power, which is a good substitute for fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal. And it's not intermittent like solar and wind."
— Dr. Catherine Chelminski, 27:27

7. Case Study: Indonesia

• Major Challenge: Exploration drilling is very high-risk, high-cost—about 25–50 million USD per project, with only ~25% success rate (31:58).
• International Interventions:
  • World Bank’s Geothermal Resources Risk Mitigation Project (GREM) created in 2019. This pooled-risk facility shares losses across projects, making exploration more feasible for smaller firms and the state.
  • Decades of policy dialogue were required to convince Indonesian authorities that "losing" money on failed wells yields non-monetary benefits (better geological data, risk pricing).
  • Result: Shift in government willingness to fund/lead exploration and drill programs.

Quote:
"Much of that, I argue in the book, is through this history of clean energy regime complex involvement...demonstrated through the creation of a government-led geothermal exploration drilling program and buy-in to the GREM."
— Dr. Catherine Chelminski, 37:34

8. Case Study: The Philippines

• Early Leadership: UNDP/New Zealand grants drove technical buildup and domestic skill development from the 1960s–1980s (40:00).
• Shift in Focus:
  • Now about 50% of resource potential has been developed; remaining resources are less profitable (secondary, higher-acidity reserves).
  • Current challenge: Making geothermal more competitive within a fully privatized electricity sector; exploring new financing mechanisms.
  • New international support (e.g., risk mitigation fund via Asian Development Bank) aims to address remaining barriers.

Quote:
"Geothermal took off and the Philippines became the second largest producer of geothermal in the world. And it was very much due to prioritization of geothermal as a technology to meet the country's domestic energy needs due to energy shocks and crises."
— Dr. Catherine Chelminski, 41:42

9. Key Comparisons: Indonesia vs. Philippines

• Natural Resources: Indonesia = fossil fuel rich; Philippines = energy insecure, resource-poor.
• Governance: Indonesia = decentralized; Philippines = centralized.
• Market Structure: Indonesia = state ownership dominant; Philippines = privatized sector post-2001 reforms.
• Market Maturity: Indonesia developing only ~11% of geothermal potential vs. the Philippines' 50% (43:54–49:29).
• Stages of Development: Indonesia has more untapped primary resources; Philippines’ remaining reserves are costlier secondary resources.

Quote:
“A lot of the resources that were developed in the Philippines [were] under an authoritarian regime with guaranteed offtake by state-owned enterprise. In Indonesia the resources were developed more recently under a democracy...governance at national and subnational levels for permitting and tendering differ substantially.”
— Dr. Catherine Chelminski, 45:00

10. Broader Implications & Lessons Learned

• Political Will is Essential: International regime complexes can facilitate transitions only when domestic political will and alignment exist (49:57).
• Turf Wars & Fragmentation: Institutional overlaps at the international level (multiple agencies, donors, etc.) can result in “turf wars,” duplication, or gaps in support. Coordinated approaches are needed for efficient impact (52:25).
• Effectiveness Depends on:
  • Domestic energy shocks/crises as a catalyst for prioritization;
  • Matching financial instruments to market conditions and sector maturity;
  • Incorporating domestic politics as a key variable in evaluating regime/aid success.

Quote:
"Throughout the cases, I see variable levels of effectiveness, which depends on this convergence or divergence of political interests...the importance of incorporating domestic politics as a major indicator of regime complex effectiveness..."
— Dr. Catherine Chelminski, 52:24

11. Future Research Directions

• Generalizing the Framework: Applying regime complex effectiveness to other global public goods (e.g., ocean biodiversity governance).
• Just Transitions: Examining siting/land justice and ancestral land issues in renewable deployment across Indonesia, the Philippines, and lithium extraction in South America.

Quote:
"One project is working on new research that applies this theoretical framework...to other cases beyond clean energy...The other is an extension of the empirical case studies, especially looking at the contestation over the siting of renewable energy projects on ancestral land."
— Dr. Catherine Chelminski, 53:39

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Quote on EMDE Focus:

  • “These countries are going through rapid urbanization, industrial growth, and have rising energy needs...it’s really important then to understand how these countries will play into achieving emissions reduction goals and finding ways to help transition a lot of these countries towards cleaner fuels.” (05:15)

• On Implementation:

  • "It's not just setting targets...It actually has to be implemented all the way to the local level in a way that's actionable." (26:20)

• On Coordination and Gaps:

  • "Complex governance fragmentation and these overlapping institutions at the international level can create these turf wars and gaps...there's big gaps in other areas. So I kind of wrap the book with a call for greater coordination on the ground, because it really does matter in the effectiveness of implementation." (52:25)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [02:59] Introduction to Dr. Chelminski & Book’s Framing
• [07:16] Research Questions & Analytical Layers
• [10:53] Why Indonesia & Philippines?
• [15:21] What is the Clean Energy Regime Complex?
• [21:43] Measuring Effectiveness: Mechanisms & Outcomes
• [27:05] Why Focus on Geothermal?
• [31:58] In-Depth: Indonesia’s Geothermal Transition
• [39:57] In-Depth: The Philippines’ Geothermal Trajectory
• [43:54] Major Points of Comparison
• [49:57] Key Implications & Lessons Learned
• [53:26] Future Research Directions

Summary Tone and Language

The episode maintains an academic yet accessible tone, with clear and methodical explanations by Dr. Chelminski, enriched by Dr. Melcher’s thoughtful and probing questions. The style is informative, solution-oriented, and policy-savvy, with a practical eye toward the intersection of high-level governance and granular, on-the-ground energy challenges.

Further Information

• Book: Governing Energy Transitions: A Study of Regime Complex Effectiveness on Geothermal Development in Indonesia and the Philippines (Cambridge UP, 2025)
• Author: Dr. Catherine (Kat) Chelminski
• Podcast Host: Dr. Miranda Melcher