Podcast Summary: Sustainable Peace in Northeast Asia

Podcast: New Books Network
Host: New Books / Keith
Guest: Professor Yong-Shik Lee
Episode Date: October 22, 2025
Book Discussed: Sustainable Peace in Northeast Asia (Anthem Press, 2023)

Overview

In this episode, Professor Yong-Shik Lee discusses his book, Sustainable Peace in Northeast Asia, with host Keith. Lee’s work offers a comprehensive, institution-centered strategy for achieving peace in a region marked by historic rivalry, nationalism, unresolved memories, and nuclear tension. The conversation covers the distinctiveness of Lee's institutional approach, the persistent impact of history and nationalism, and the challenges—and possibilities—facing each major actor in Northeast Asia. The episode culminates in Lee’s proposal of a long-term cooperative framework involving economic, political, and military integration.

Key Discussion Points

1. The Distinctiveness of Lee’s Institutional Approach

• Addressing Complexity through Multiple Perspectives
  • Lee critiques country-specific analyses, arguing for a region-wide approach that honors each nation’s unique political, historical, and cultural background.
  • “Northeast Asia is a very complex region with several countries with distinctively different political, historical, and cultural perspectives... I thought it was important to address those multiple perspectives from different countries.” (04:03, Lee)
• Confrontational Balance
  • The existing U.S./Korea/Japan vs. China/Russia/North Korea alignments maintain a confrontational balance; Lee stresses the need for innovative institutional frameworks to overcome this.

2. The Power of Nationalism and History

• Nationalism and Sinocentrism as Recurring Forces
  • Nationalism explains not only independence movements and economic drives but also military buildups. Sinocentrism reflects China's effort to assert leadership, rooted in centuries of regional dominance. (05:36)
• Collective Memory and Obstacles to Reconciliation
  • Japanese wartime aggression shapes current distrust—unlike Germany, Japan has not undergone robust public reckoning for its past, impeding regional trust.
  • “Reconciliation might be possible if the country responsible... would make efforts through the public apologies and proper compensations and education... as Germany has done since the end of World War II.” (07:05, Lee)

3. North Korea: Ideology, Nukes, and Isolation

• Nuclear Persistence and Juche Ideology
  • North Korea’s nuclear weapons serve as both regime survival tools and ideological symbols of independence—Juche’s self-reliance aligns with nuclear development. (09:49)
• Security Logic and Ideological Imperatives
  • Lee argues the security logic for North Korean nukes is weak given the deterrence of full-scale war, but the regime persists for symbolic and internal legitimacy reasons. (10:39)
• Limits of External Influence
  • Outside efforts (aid, narratives) yield limited regime change. Ongoing support from China (and Russia) is key to Pyongyang’s survival despite sanctions. (13:38)

4. China: Historical Trauma, Economic Rise, and Policy Shifts

• Sinocentrism & “Century of Humiliation”
  • China's push for leadership is shaped by long-standing cultural pride and wariness after a century of subjugation. This sometimes leads to overreaction and regional tension. (15:18)
• Leadership Choices vs. Structural Pressures
  • Deng Xiaoping’s pragmatic reforms shaped modern China, though underlying economic stagnation necessitated change. (16:32)
• Dual Strategy: Integration and Coercion
  • China uses its role as both market and economic power as leverage but trade coercion (e.g., the THAAD dispute with Korea) is “increasingly counterproductive.” (17:41, Lee)
• Adaptability vs. Centralization under Xi
  • Xi Jinping has shifted toward centralization, decreasing institutional flexibility and potentially harming China’s future. (19:00)
• Regional Reception of China’s Rise
  • Neighbors—especially Korea, Japan, and Mongolia—view China’s bid for dominance with skepticism, resisting any return to old hierarchies. (20:25)
• China’s Essential Role in Peace
  • Sustainable peace is impossible without Chinese participation but also impossible if China insists on dominance. Lee cites China’s role in RCEP as an example of cooperative, not hegemonic, participation. (21:31)

5. South Korea: Middle Power’s Role and Constraints

• Historical Balancing and Modern Identity
  • Korea historically balanced regional powers; rapid economic development positioned South Korea as a “regional coordinator” but not a full balancer. (22:36)
• Strengths and Vulnerabilities
  • Economic clout is offset by export dependency and exposure to North Korean threats. Diversifying exports and reliance on U.S. defense are key factors. (24:16)
• Leadership Aspirations and Limits
  • Past presidents aspired to mediate and balance, but superpower rivalry limits Korean autonomy and success. (25:46)
• Democratic Polarization and Policy Inconsistency
  • Domestic political polarization undermines Seoul’s ability to play a strategic regional role; bipartisan platforms are needed. (26:52)
• Unification as Ultimate Solution
  • Lee argues only unification can truly resolve the confrontation on the peninsula and the persistent nuclear threat. (27:33)
  • “Most experts agree the North is unlikely to agree to denuclearize, and the unification is likely the only permanent solution.” (27:33, Lee)

6. Japan: Economic Giant, Political Pygmy

• Miracle Economy and Military Paradox
  • Japan’s state-led growth built a powerful economy and military under a pacifist constitution, but these remain in tension. (28:46)
• Limits of Political Leadership
  • Postwar caution and refusal to reckon with historical crimes hinder Japan’s regional leadership. (31:03)
  • “Japan concentrated on economic recovery and remained cautious about political engagement… failed to build political leadership and agenda that appealed across the region.” (31:03, Lee)
• Grievances and Memory
  • Comfort women and other unresolved issues keep tensions alive; Japan’s right-wing politics resists German-style reconciliation. (32:23, 33:45)
• Possible Role in Peace
  • Japan could be a bigger force for peace but is limited until it resolves historical issues. (35:14)

7. United States: Insider from the Outside

• Embedded but Distant
  • After WWII, the U.S. became an “insider” via occupation and reconstruction, influencing both allies and former adversaries. (36:13)
• Challenges to Stabilization
  • U.S. economic credibility (TPP withdrawal, WTO appellate body paralysis) and inconsistent alliance management undermine its influence. (38:21)
• Taiwan Flashpoint
  • U.S. commitment to defending Taiwan escalates tension; U.S. allies are cautious but generally support Taiwan’s status quo. (39:13)

8. Russia: Outsider-Insider, Junior Partner

• Diminished Role & China Alignment
  • Russia’s influence faded post-Cold War; the Ukraine war has made it increasingly dependent on China—and North Korea—for economic and military support, reducing its leverage even as it aspires not to be dominated. (40:09, 41:32)
• Spillovers of the Ukraine War
  • Russian reliance on North Korea and China affects sanctions and enables Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions. (41:32)
• Prospects for U.S.-Russia Collaboration
  • Common interests exist in containing China, but Ukraine and global credibility issues make collaboration unlikely in the short term. (43:03)

9. Mongolia: The Quiet Mediator

• Unique Diplomatic Role
  • Mongolia hosts the Ulaanbaatar Dialogue and maintains relations with all regional states, aspiring to be the “Switzerland of Northeast Asia.” (43:55)
• Third Neighbor Strategy
  • While economically dependent on China, Mongolia balances via engagement with the U.S., South Korea, and others. (45:28)
• Model for Reform?
  • Mongolia’s transition to democracy could serve as inspiration for North Korean reform, though regime effects remain limited. (48:35)

10. Roadmap for Sustainable Peace

• Three-Part Cooperative Framework:

  1. Regional Economic Integration: FTAs including all regional players—none currently exist.
  2. Political Integration: EU-style frameworks to foster binding decisions and trust (long-term goal).
  3. Military Cooperation: Collective defense to prevent future wars—currently unimaginable, but historical precedent (France/Germany) suggests change is possible.
     • “You would have the same response if you had asked whether or not the French and Germans could serve under the same command at the turn of the 20th century... within 50 years, [collective defense] was even considered necessary.” (51:31, Lee)

• The Five “Codes” of the Region:

  • Nationalism, Confucianism, Liberalism, Economic Development, Balance of Power.
  • Depending on how governments mobilize them, these codes can either support or undermine peace. (53:01)

Notable Quotes and Moments

• On the difficulty of regional integration:
  “Having Chinese and Japanese, South Korean military serving under the same command sounds like an illusion almost… but within 50 years [of WWI], French and German militaries were under collective defense.” (51:31, Lee)
• On why institutions failed to contain North Korean nukes:
  “The institutional framework did not fit the situation anymore as time went by. Plus Kim Jong Un… had a renewed political will to ensure regime survival.” (12:07, Lee)
• On reconciliation and history:
  “The lack of vision and leadership that can appeal to the region and beyond, and the lack of courage to admit the crimes committed during the war, was the reason for [Japan’s] struggle.” (31:03, Lee)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 04:03 — Distinctiveness of institutional approach
• 05:36 — Role of nationalism and Sinocentrism
• 07:05 — Memory, reconciliation, and Japan’s history
• 09:49 — Juche ideology and North Korea’s nuclear program
• 12:07 — Institutional attempts to denuclearize North Korea
• 15:18 — China’s regional behavior shaped by history
• 17:41 — China’s dual strategy: integration and coercion
• 19:00 — Xi’s centralization and impact on adaptability
• 21:31 — China’s necessary role in peace and examples from RCEP
• 22:36 — South Korea’s identity as a middle power
• 24:16 — S. Korea’s strengths and vulnerabilities
• 27:33 — Necessity of Korean unification
• 28:46 — Japan: from economic miracle to security paradox
• 31:03 — Japan’s political limits and postwar legacy
• 33:45 — Differences between German and Japanese reconciliation
• 35:14 — Japan’s potential and limits in building peace
• 36:13 — U.S. as an “insider” in the region
• 38:21 — U.S. economic credibility and regional impacts
• 39:13 — U.S.-Taiwan policy implications
• 41:32 — Russia’s alignment with China and war spillovers
• 43:55 — Mongolia’s unique diplomatic position
• 45:28 — Mongolia’s “third neighbor” strategy
• 49:32 — Three-part cooperative framework for peace
• 53:01 — Five codes shaping Northeast Asian dynamics
• 55:34 — U.S.-China rivalry as deciding factor for the region
• 56:21 — Managing a nuclear North Korea
• 57:12 — Four key takeaways for readers and policymakers

Key Takeaways for Policymakers and Readers

• Sustainable peace in Northeast Asia is only possible through institutional arrangements that account for history, nationalism, and unique cultural contexts.
• The confrontational balance between two rival blocs is inherently unstable; it must evolve into frameworks promoting cooperation—economic, political, and military.
• China’s participation is essential but must be grounded in mutual trust, not dominance.
• Unification of Korea is likely the only permanent solution to nuclear confrontation on the peninsula.
• Creating regional peace will be long-term, but history shows even unlikely adversaries can build cooperative institutions if the stakes—and vision—are high.