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New York Farm Bureau News Bytes
#19: Interview with Aimpoint Research on the War Gaming at STACON - 11-02-2023
00:24:56
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- [00:04]
Steve Ammerman
New York Farm Bureau's state convention will be unlike any other. Get ready for a war game that will help members plan for the future. Hi, I'm Steve Ammerman, New York Farm Bureau's director of communications. And welcome to News Bites. Our state convention kicks off December 4th in Tarrytown, New York, in the lower Hudson Valley. It's a gateway community to New York City, one of the largest consumer markets in the world. That can be a challenging market for farms to enter if they're looking to sell their products there. There are also a number of policy issues that start in New York City and make their way to Albany, which can be challenging for farms. So what more can members do to adapt to changes coming their way in order to be successful? Well, the state convention, or state con, as we're calling it, will help answer that question. AimPoint Research is joining us in Tarrytown to lead what is called a Wargate. This is a business strategy exercise that will involve participants giving their ideas on how best to move forward. And today on newsfinds, we're taking a deep dive into how that war game will work and what our members will get out of it. So we sat down with Daniel Cummins, aimpoint's fusion leader, and Ken Gilliam, vice president of predictive analysis for AimPoint.
- [01:12]
Host
Well, Danielle, Ken, welcome to Newsbytes. We're excited to have this conversation that's really going to set the tone for what our state convention is going to be with the war game experience and the involvement with AimPoint. We're really excited to have you, so thanks for being with us today. Let's start really broad. AimPoint Research is a fascinating company. You do a lot of work across different industries, but agriculture is one of those industries. Talk a little bit about the work that you do and what both of your roles are at aimpoint.
- [01:45]
Danielle Cummins
I'll. I'll kick us off. I just want to say we're super excited to be part of the podcast today talking about the state annual convention. We're ecstatic to be partnering with New York Farm Bureau and bringing this experience to all of the meeting attendees and your members, frankly. So a point is a strategic intelligence firm, a global strategic intelligence firm where we focus on providing intelligence, market research, strategic support, and consulting, and predictive analytics, which Ken will talk to you about, which is our wargaming piece to our customer base. And we really do our best to try to serve the full value chain. Our clients range in experience from farmer boards like New York Farm Bureau to input suppliers and those that sit on the financial side, so we really try to span the whole food value chain, which gives us a great perspective on all things that are happening in our industry. My role here at aimpoint is a fusion leader, so my role is really focusing on client needs, bringing them solutions that we can best position them to utilize and act upon as they're making decisions for their business and things to be aware of as they're making future plans and really working together with the client to both develop good business solutions for them and provide good business engagement for us. So it's a, it's a new role for me. I've been here for about a year and a half almost. So it's. Every day is a new thing. Every day is a challenge and it's, it's been a really great experience.
- [03:18]
Host
But you have background in New York agriculture, you're from New York, you're here in New York and you have extensive involvement.
- [03:25]
Danielle Cummins
Yes. Before joining AimPoint, I worked as a crop insurance agent at Farm Credit east out of the Batavia branch. I live in farm in Byron, New York, so about an hour east of Buffalo in the heart of western New York. My family has a farm here where we grow row crops and processing vegetables for those that are in the western New York area. Elbrook Farms. That's, that's our, our farm here. So my mom is Patty. For anybody who may know her, I'm a little biased, but she's a fantastic farmer and businesswoman. So get a lot of my ex. Her. Yeah, she's great.
- [03:57]
Host
So. Well, it's, it's great that, that you're a part of this discussion and, you know, truly understand New York agriculture. But Ken, you, you know, bring a great background as well. What is your role at aimpoint?
- [04:09]
Ken Gilliam
Steve? I, I share the excitement that Danielle has. I'm the vice president for predictive analysis, which means I own the modeling and simulation side of our business where we do some predictive modeling to make a call on what the future is going to look like and how farmers are going to need to act in the future. And also the war gaming practice goes back to our military roots where we take complex problems and put humans in a situation and have them deal with it and come up with new ways to manage those problems, look for new opportunities. I did that in the army for quite a while. It was my last job. I am actually physically located in Georgia, but we work from anywhere now, within a point. So we have team members that are all over the United States, like Danielle's in New York. We have West Coast, East Coast, Texas, Midwest, do we get a broad perspective on what farming looks like in the US and many of those are just like Danielle. They have active farming practices and operations that they work on as well as doing analysis for AimPoint. So my background, I am a retired Army, 27 years, retired as a colonel, and I was the director of Strategic War Gaming at the Army War College before I came to AimPoint. And we do exactly that same thing now inside of ag and businesses that are connected to it.
- [05:35]
Host
So we'll get into the war gaming experience in just a minute. But kind of looking at broader terms, you know, you're talking about analytics and trends and, you know, basic information that businesses can use when they plan. When you think of this as a farmer and you know, many of the people at our state convention will be farmers or farmer members, will be other agribusiness professionals there. But why is it something that farms should be looking at things like the analytics and the data to help them make decisions, you know, where they are, where they farm? Why does that matter to them and why should it matter?
- [06:11]
Ken Gilliam
Well, I think on a basic level, the future is going to be different and it's going to require different. You can look at the past and tell that we haven't always done things the same way, we haven't always had the same requirements. There are things that will make us do different things, and the skills and tactics and things that we've done before that got us to this point won't be successful in moving us to the next point. So that's a big part of what we do when we try to. We don't know what the future is going to be, but we can start to make some educated guesses and start to move in that right direction and start to build some resilient systems and understanding. So when it actually gets here, it's not a surprise and we're not left behind. We're also mindful we don't want anybody to get to the future too early because that's irrelevant as well. So understanding the balance and that tension between I've got to transform for this something in the future and I've got to be profitable today and deliver for me and my stakeholders. That's the biggest tension that we try to help organizations manage. And farmers do that all the time. They have to figure they're already on a long planning timeline and they got to do something different. What I try to convey as well on the data side is that just the data itself is valuable and making sure that you have it in a way that's usable for you and that can be translated. But it's typically only valuable if someone's willing to pay for it and finding the right way to get your data to work for you. We know that some farmers are out there still doing it on paper, but those are probably few and far between. The industry and all parts of the industry are looking for ways to help farmers do it better so they can deliver for their customers in a better way.
- [08:02]
Host
Well, I was going to say, Danielle, you mentioned your mom's a great businesswoman, and I'm sure this, these kinds of things are relevant to your family's farm.
- [08:10]
Danielle Cummins
Yeah, absolutely. You know, I was able to speak at a local annual meeting recently, and we talk about all these big trends and boil the ocean in terms of what's impacting agriculture and the industry as a whole. But what it comes down to is how it all relates to the farm gate and how we can talk about these things in a way that impacts a business and their locality. You know, it's easy to talk about all geopolitical things, but when it comes down to it, it has to impact your business. And the message truly is finding good intelligence and data that impacts you and empowers you to continue to make smart business decisions so that you have a future, so that your operation has a future. There's a lot that can be consumed, but finding a source that you trust that impacts you in a way that you find to be useful and valuable is a keystone to being a successful business. And we really try to provide that for all levels of strategic planning, whether it be at the farm gate or at the C suite level. It's, you know, we're lucky that we have some versatility there.
- [09:12]
Host
Well, this is what we'll be exploring at our state convention with the war gaming process. Now, last year, your company's CEO, Brett Scotto, was our keynote speaker. His speech was fascinating about the future of farming and the trends that are coming our way and really giving our farmers a lot to think about to how to position themselves and how to take advantage of certain things. He's going to be back, but all of you are going to be with him and to go through and put our members through this war game. So, you know, what is a war game?
- [09:46]
Ken Gilliam
Simple question with many answers. I think so. At its base and its simplest form, for every war game, it has humans making decisions and dealing with the consequences of those decisions. War gaming. It's a suite of techniques and practices born in military practices in the military to deal with complex situations, especially when taking real world action is probably not advisable when you're just trying to figure out what you might want to do. Same kind of thing works in the business world and it translates very well into, you've probably heard scenario planning, those scenario based exercises, tabletop exercises, simulations, all of those. We bring in under our umbrella of war gaming to build solutions, test solutions, look for new opportunities, combine things in new ways that we might normally not do on a day to day business conversation. We kind of open up the aperture, we want divergence, we want to hear crazy ideas that we know no one will ever do because they start to spawn these other what ifs that help us find new opportunities. Like well, you said this, but we might not be able to do all the way there. But this helps me think about the problem in a different way. Over here I can come up with a different solution. I have quite a bit of experience getting general officers to do the same thing and the most impactful statement I've ever heard was a three star general when he was briefing his boss on the results of their war game. He said, I knew I had a problem, I just didn't know how bad it was until we did this war game. And that's what we really want to come out of it. In order to examine that problem that we're looking at something we probably can't solve, but we can manage it and understand some of the inputs that would help us manage it.
- [11:50]
Host
So this is going to be very interactive, I think, and you know, we're going to have a few hundred people in the room. How does that work and what are the, the scenarios at play and talk about that involvement, if you will. Danielle?
- [12:05]
Danielle Cummins
Well, you know, we're coming with a handful of folks to help facilitate. So in a smaller group you have each group and they sort of interact with one facilitator. But we're stretching our bandwidth here and we're able to use some interactive tools so that we can capture conversation and have audience participation and track where things and conversations are going. So we'll utilize some of those tools that we've got in our toolbox. But really Ken will be what I'm going to call the game master and instructing everybody. We've got a great panel set up for the morning that will act as our intelligence brief. So you guys have got a slated group of speakers that will make sure we're asking the good hard questions for that will lead into and feed the scenario that we're going to have in the afternoon. But really it's. The focus is about bridging gaps and understanding those gaps and how we can sort of fortify our food system in the Northeast, specifically in the New York area, so that we can be risk mitigated for the future. Right. So that we can all continue to work together and. And thrive, frankly. So we're looking for some people that have great big ideas. Let's put them out there on the table, let's figure out why they're going to work, why they're not going to work, and then continue to have the conversation and build out on what a future state could potentially be. Ken, what did I miss there? I feel like that was a lot.
- [13:27]
Ken Gilliam
I think the only addition I have is that war games tend to scale pretty easily. And if we've got something that we can run with 12 to 24 people that requires them to do some development and interact with each other, willing participants, we can do that with much larger rooms. And we've done it before at other venues where we have 100 or more people in the room doing small group exercises and then reporting that out on to the larger group. It won't feel like a normal conference. No, it's not going to feel like a normal conference presentation just because we'll layer that competition on the top of it as well to get some of the psychological juices of winning and losing and interaction built into it.
- [14:15]
Danielle Cummins
The key phrase that Ken said there is willing participants. We need all of the attendees to come in with. You know, we're gonna push you outside your comfort zone. You have to be comfortable talking. You have to wanna participate, because the more robust activity we get, the more robust output we get from the meeting. So everybody better drink four cups of coffee that morning, do what you need to do during lunch, and let's just get in there and really dive into the activity.
- [14:43]
Host
Well, that begs my next question then, is what kind of preparation, if any, is needed? Are you just wanting people to come with an. Be willing to engage and to. To, you know, network with each other on some of these questions that are going to be posed to them? Is that fair?
- [15:00]
Ken Gilliam
Yes. So we know that all these participants are going to come keenly aware of the issues that are affecting their operations and their businesses. What they need, the challenges that they've faced over the past few years, we want them to bring all that in. We need their bias for action or inaction and all of those problems they're facing daily, cyclically, that keep coming back up because, frankly, it's kind of uninteresting. If they bring something to us that they've already got solved, we want them to highlight things that are ongoing, consistent, that they can't necessarily formulate their own path out, that they need to work with someone else. The open mind is a big part of it, just because of the techniques that we're going to bring in. But for the vast majority of participants, they have what they need already in their mind to contribute and to find those new opportunities.
- [16:00]
Danielle Cummins
I think a great sound bite from that would be know what you know and don't be afraid to unpack what you don't.
- [16:10]
Host
That's, that's perfect. And Danielle, I mean, just with your county Farm Bureau experience and, and everything, you know that Farm Bureau. A lot of Farm Bureau is about getting together, networking, talking about ideas, what works, what doesn't work, whether it's on the farm or at the policy level or this regulation is, is hurting us or helping us. And this is really kind of just an extension of, of what our Farm Bureau members do all the time of coming together and talking about issues.
- [16:36]
Danielle Cummins
Absolutely right. Absolutely right. Which is another reason why I think this will be a great session because it should be an atmosphere that people are comfortable in. We're comfortable coming to the table and having these discussions at the county level. So I think it's great that we're having them on a bigger scale. What I will say is we, we have to come in with an open mind to this. Right. I don't want it to be a session where we're just identifying problems and not actually thinking about solutions and pushing past them. We have to understand the framework of existence that we play in right now, whether it be regulatory, policy wise, market based pressure, understand what those things are. We can't change them, but we can exist and thrive and push through them. Just because it's hard doesn't mean it's not an opportunity. So some outside of the box thinking through this I think will be a very good exercise.
- [17:23]
Ken Gilliam
I'm going to challenge you though. It is. It's not just coming together to talk about things. We want them to take action in context of the intelligence that they're going to have and the challenge that we're going to present them. Because, you know, strategy isn't strategy without action. So they have to take an action. They're going to get some feedback from those around them. So it's, it's that level above talking about it. It's like, I'm going to do this. What are the implications if I do that.
- [17:53]
Host
Yep, hence, hence the game aspect.
- [17:56]
Ken Gilliam
Yes, yep.
- [17:57]
Host
Of, of making moves and trying to advance and in any game that comes with great outcomes or, or, or not. So I think it's going to be fun to see how all of that unfolds. So ultimately then, you know, what kind of outcomes are you looking for? Danielle, you kind of referenced that, that, you know, you want the farms to be able to act and, and to take some things home with them that will help them. So, you know, how do you envision those outcomes looking or at least what you're hoping they look like?
- [18:31]
Danielle Cummins
To Ken's point, I think it's really the action. Right. I think we're all comfortable talking about issues and, you know, to some extent thinking through them, but it's really what is actionable, Ken, without, you know, giving too much of the details away of how we're going to play this game. You know, I think a deliverable is certainly a report that people can come back and think on and record what we've discussed in the room. So hopefully that is a good touch point for those that are not able to attend, that we can continue to have impressions outside of those that were in the room. But really I want people to experience something that they find valuable that impacts their own personal businesses and in. Can inform them as they're making decisions at home.
- [19:15]
Ken Gilliam
And ultimately there's this succeed and fail that's within the game. But we want everybody to walk away with a positive perspective on some of the challenges and opportunities that are there so they see that they can take action and actually change their future or move the future in the right direction.
- [19:37]
Danielle Cummins
One more thing on that. You know, I keep thinking about the perspective of the player being just the farmer member, but it's not. There will be other interested people and other assets throughout the industry in the room. So it's making sure that they understand what happens on the other side of that pendulum. Right? Not just what's in their own silo and their own business, but understanding some of the third and fourth order effects that come into working with farmers. So I think it's going to be a great learning experience for everybody.
- [20:03]
Host
That's a great point because I was just going to ask, you know, this isn't just about a particular kind of farm that's going to benefit or particular kind of business. Regardless of what you grow, your size, how you do it, there's going to be something there for everybody because everybody wants to have a successful business and farm and operation well, and frankly, we.
- [20:26]
Danielle Cummins
Need them all to have successful farming operations. We need the businesses on the other side of the value chain to be successful as well. Part of what you'll hear Brett speak about as the keynote speech is American flu power and how all of that impacts our ability to participate in the world economy and be a thriving economy. We need everybody to succeed and to, frankly, feed the world. We need every ounce of protein, every ounce of vegetable, every ounce of grain to continue to contribute to that effort. So. And again, this is not just things that impact the farm gate. This is across the value chain. So driving that conversation to look at things holistically and really, I suspect that will be something that we can all take away from this experience.
- [21:11]
Host
Well, I'm excited. I'm sure both of you are excited as well, especially Danielle. I mean, you know, this is your. Your backyard, so to speak. Just giving our farms and our agribusinesses and other organizations the opportunity to think about things in a different way and experience something that is new. That's exciting. That's a little out of the box, as you say. So I'm sure both of you are excited to come and watch this unfold.
- [21:39]
Danielle Cummins
Yeah, I'm ecstatic that I can sort of blend my personal and my professional worlds all in one. You know, New York agriculture is something that is extremely special, and I think that we have a lot of opportunity in this state. We're lucky, where we don't just grow ingredients, we grow actual food, and we have a big marketplace that we can then support those efforts. So I think I'm. Words can't express that. I'm happy to do all this in my backyard, as you said, and interact with people that I know and interact with on a daily basis and call family, friends, and colleagues. So it's. It's a great opportunity, and I'm happy that we're able to be there.
- [22:17]
Ken Gilliam
You can't be more excited than Danielle. I don't think.
- [22:20]
Danielle Cummins
I don't think anybody's ever worked.
- [22:23]
Ken Gilliam
I. I'm excited to get. So I spent seven total years of my adult life in New York in the lower Hudson Valley, Steve. And I'm excited to be able to come and make a visit as well. We visited a few local farms when we lived up there, and I feed off of Danielle's excitement.
- [22:41]
Host
That's great. So you know how special of a place it is.
- [22:43]
Ken Gilliam
I do.
- [22:45]
Host
Well, thank you both. I look forward to seeing you in person in a little over six weeks. December 5th is the big day for the war game, and we're hoping that folks register and sign up and come ready to engage and play the game.
- [23:03]
Danielle Cummins
Well, we are excited to be there. Like I said, everybody better just come. With all the energy and willing to participate, I think it's going to be a great opportunity.
- [23:12]
Steve Ammerman
It's going to be a fascinating opportunity for all involved to really help position agriculture here in New York and across the Northeast for what's coming our way. So we hope you can join us there. But there's going to be much more to stake on than just the war game. Also on December 5th, we're gonna have six different workshops focusing on business needs, risk management and communications. There's going to be a New York Farm Bureau marketplace where members can sell their local goods and foods that they produce. And of course, networking, always a big part of convention, including a fun cornhole tournament in memory of Fred Perrin, the late New York Farm Bureau staff member. And that's going to benefit our Young Farmers and Ranchers program. Also on tap, literally a wine, beer, cider and spirits tasting that will support the promotion and education committee. All of this will be followed on December 6 with the annual meeting and business session. Now this is where delegates from county Farm Bureaus all across the state will debate and vote on public policy issues and resolutions that will set the stage for 2024. This is really the foundation of our grassroots organization. If you want more info and to register for this event, just go to the Events tab on our website@nyfb.org or you can go straight to the convention website@staycon.nl nyfb.org Staycon is spelled S T A C O N. N Y F B.org. you can also find the link in the podcast description and we look forward to having you there. Well, this is our last podcast of the 2023 season. We'll pick back up early next year with more deep dives into the issues important to our members and our customers, including highlighting the diversity of New York agriculture. Until then, thanks to Seth Moser Katz for editing this podcast and make sure to thank a farmer for all that they do.