Newscast — Are US-Iran Talks Actually Happening?

Date: March 24, 2026
Host: Adam Fleming (BBC)
Guests: Lyse Doucet (BBC Chief International Correspondent), Parham Gohbadi (Senior Reporter, BBC Persian), Economics Correspondent (likely Sarah O’Connor), Faisal Islam (Economics Editor)

Episode Overview

This episode tackles growing confusion and speculation about whether the US and Iran are engaged in real negotiations to de-escalate their conflict, especially with conflicting statements from both governments. The discussion covers the opaque nature of diplomatic channels, the current situation inside Iran, the regional and global ramifications—especially around the Strait of Hormuz—and how these tensions reverberate through markets and UK economic policy.

Later, the conversation shifts to UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ recent parliamentary statement responding to economic turmoil linked to the Middle East crisis, government policy on cost-of-living support, and the politics of energy bills.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Are US-Iran Talks Actually Happening?

(Timestamps: 01:09–22:03)

Conflicting Narratives:

• The White House claims “very strong talks” with Iran are ongoing, suggesting optimism about diplomatic progress; meanwhile, Iranian officials categorically deny any direct negotiation is taking place.
• The confusion is compounded by President Trump’s bombastic style and tendency to claim breakthroughs for political gain, even when real progress is fragile or non-existent.

“From the White House’s perspective, the talks are happening and they’re going swimmingly, although we’re not sure exactly how they’re happening. From Iran’s perspective, they’re not happening at all.”
— Adam Fleming [01:09]

The State of Communications

• Lyse Doucet describes two narrowly “cracked open” windows of communication:
  1. Occasional, low-trust contacts between Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoy Steve Witkoff, mostly through texts or calls.
  2. Speculation about back-channel talks with Mohamed Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, who is seen as a “hardline pragmatist,” though this is likely overblown by both US and media narratives.

“He [Trump] gives this impression the door has opened to diplomacy. I don’t think the door is open. One of the windows is the window which has already been shattered twice.”
— Lyse Doucet [05:08]

Iranian Internal Dynamics

• Reporting from inside Iran is “more and more difficult” due to internet blackouts and crackdowns on those sending photos/videos abroad (500 recent arrests).
• The government’s digital crackdown is meant to control both protest narratives and evidence of internal dissent.

“It is becoming more and more difficult on a daily basis. There are some, for example, some people send us directly videos ... But even him [Vahid Online], he’s getting less and less and less videos... The new crackdown is a digital crackdown in Iran.”
— Parham Gohbadi [03:59]

Calculations and Leverage

• Iran claims to be holding its ground, leveraging the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raising oil prices, and carrying out daily attacks on Israel and US military bases in the region.
• However, there is risk: these strategies could “backfire”, especially if the US/Trump escalates to targeting critical Iranian infrastructure like Kharg Island or the South Pars refinery.

“They are not losing this war… they have some leverage right now, and they want to use that leverage. But there is this risk… this might backfire at some point, because blocking the Strait of Hormuz… might backfire."
— Parham Gohbadi [09:14]

Mediation and Third Parties

• Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are acting as message carriers but aren't setting up any real negotiation table.
• Notably, news reports about high-level US-Iran face-to-face meetings in Pakistan seem “fanciful” and unsupported by real evidence.

“Pakistan wants to be seen to be helpful… It seems unbelievable to me that J.D. Vance, the U.S. Vice President, would fly into Pakistan and meet this pragmatist, hardline pragmatist… this weekend.”
— Lyse Doucet [12:31]

Domestic Dissatisfaction in Iran

• Iranian protesters and dissidents are dismayed by prospect of direct talks, fearing that the regime would emerge from the war more repressive and belligerent.
• The regime maintains control through repression, continued arrests, and visible presence in the streets, showing no signs of reform despite claims by some in the West.

“All the signs we see so far is quite the opposite. And this is what people fear the most, that this is going to be a police state after this war.”
— Parham Gohbadi [15:34]

Change in Global Narrative

• Western leaders like Trump and Netanyahu had earlier suggested their interventions were to help Iranian protesters, or bring regime change, but those ambitions are now dramatically reduced in scope.

“You can't bring about a revolution from the air. There has to be a ground component… President Trump… doesn’t talk about [helping protesters] anymore.”
— Lyse Doucet [16:09]

Strait of Hormuz Power Play

• Iran is now claiming a right to charge "tolls" for certain national shipping through the Strait, aiming to generate revenue and rebuild after destruction.
• The closure is selective: allies get through; enemies don’t.

“Iranians are talking about charging countries right now from now on, they say that, well, this was our right, toll. We turned a blind eye to it for decades.”
— Parham Gohbadi [18:00]

Deadlines and Next Steps

• President Trump’s new “five days” deadline for Iran to back down is seen as more about political theater and market manipulation than actual strategy.
• Such cyclical brinkmanship is portrayed as fundamentally misunderstanding the realities on the ground.

“It keeps the world on edge. And it's a very, very dangerous spring for him to think that you could solve the Iran problem or even bring about talks for even a ceasefire in five days.”
— Lyse Doucet [19:20]

Nuclear Question Lurks

• Any future real talks will circle back to Iran’s nuclear program, with hardliners now in charge emboldened by wartime resilience.

“Whatever form [negotiation] takes … it won’t just be about ending this shooting war. We’ll be back to square one about a potential Iranian nuclear program.”
— Adam Fleming [20:03]

2. Markets, UK Politics, and Energy Bills

(Timestamps: 22:03–52:28)

Market Reactions to the Conflict

• Financial markets have experienced volatility (or “whipsaw” movements) linked to the Middle East crisis, though things have stabilized for now.

Rachel Reeves' Parliamentary Statement

• Chancellor Reeves addresses the government’s approach to potential economic fallout from the war. Key takeaways:
  • No immediate broad bailout or blanket support for energy bills; such support, if needed, will be more tightly targeted at the most vulnerable.
  • Explicit criticism of the 2022 Tory government’s “universal” bailout, which disproportionately helped higher-income households.
  • Continued focus on fiscal prudence and avoiding extra borrowing.

“What she clearly communicated today, didn't quite say it, but it was clearly communicated... you can forget it if those people [top 10% earners] are going to get any support this time around.”
— Economics Correspondent [30:38]

The Politics of Support

• Past government support (energy price cap) helped limit inflation but was expensive and “wasted money” on the wealthy; this will not be repeated without careful targeting.
• Measures to combat potential “price gouging” or profiteering will mainly be about giving regulators more powers and signaling vigilance, rather than direct price controls.

"It's mainly a big megaphone... a threat of a stick to tell them not to do it.”
— Economics Correspondent [44:56]

Energy Bill Mechanisms Explained

• The cap smooths out large fluctuations—consumers pay steady rates, while costs are recovered over time via taxes or public borrowing if needed.
• Changes to "policy costs" have shifted some government-imposed charges from bills to general taxation.

“The government is taking them off and putting them into general taxation... as opposed to... directly onto your bill.”
— Adam Fleming [44:21]

Market, Mortgage, and Rates Uncertainty

• There’s disagreement between financial markets (expecting higher rates) and economists (some expecting rates to fall), with conflict-generated uncertainty making economic responses unpredictable.
• A quote from Bank of England's Governor: “Monetary policy isn’t going to open the Straits of Hormuz.”

Public Consensus

• Wide cross-party and public acceptance of the energy price cap, once seen as radical.
• The expectation is now firmly established that government must cushion citizens from global energy price shocks.

"The idea that people should, should not face the inevitable consequence of rising global gas prices... is now the consensus in parliament."
— Economics Correspondent [41:20]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On the opacity of talks:

“I don’t want to call them negotiations because it doesn’t sound like there’s any negotiating happening. What is actually going on in terms of communications between Iran and the US?”
— Adam Fleming [04:47]

On Iran’s regime and likely future:

“All the signs we see so far is quite the opposite... that this is going to be a police state after this war.”
— Parham Gohbadi [15:34]

On the longevity and structure of UK energy price support:

“Those are the direct quotes. So they haven't actually established that this is actually happening [price gouging]... So it's about signaling whose side they're on.”
— Economics Correspondent [35:30]

On the perils of economic uncertainty:

“You can see why accidents do happen. We don’t know how some hedge fund... suddenly becomes a household name next week because it was positioned a certain way in crude oil.”
— Economics Correspondent [50:53]

Important Timestamps & Sections

• 01:09–13:43: Confusion surrounding US-Iran “talks”; what sources and cracks in communication actually exist.
• 13:43–18:50: Impact of possible negotiations on Iranian politics and public mood; regime resilience and repression.
• 18:50–21:56: Strait of Hormuz tensions and Iranian strategy for leverage in the conflict.
• 22:03–26:46: Economic fallout, focusing on UK policy; Rachel Reeves’ response to market turmoil and energy bills.
• 27:30–31:19: Government’s critique of the 2022 universal energy bill bailout; targeting future support.
• 34:59–38:54: Regulatory powers vs. “vibes marketing”; signaling rather than direct intervention against price gouging.
• 41:20–44:21: Explanations of who pays for capped energy and how policy shifts impact bills and taxation.
• 47:12–52:09: Deep dive into UK mortgage rates, bond markets, and discussion of economic forecasting amid war-driven chaos.
• 52:18–52:28: Lighthearted wrap-up clarifying “whipsaw” and other economic terminology.

Summary Table of Main Talking Points

| Segment | Topics Discussed | |---------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | US-Iran Negotiations | Opaque, conflicting accounts; mediation; lack of trust; surface-appearing communication | | Crackdown in Iran | Internet blackouts; repression; lack of reform signals | | Iran’s Leverage | Strait of Hormuz; selective closure; new “toll” practices | | Nuclear and War Dynamics | Hardliners in control; repeat of 12-Day War patterns; protesters’ disappointment | | Markets/Economy (UK Focus) | Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules; targeting support; regulator powers; inflation | | Politics of Energy Price Cap | Shift from universal to targeted support; consensus around the price cap | | Economic Uncertainty | BoE’s limits; political maneuvering; risk of financial accidents due to global volatility |

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

• The episode provides a thorough, nuanced, and sometimes wry analysis of the diplomatic fog surrounding US-Iran “talks,” imparts a sense of the stark lived realities inside Iran, and links broader Middle East instability to the day-to-day economic concerns and politics of UK households.
• If you want a sweeping picture—from dusty Tehran to the energy bills hitting your doormat, via the shifting positions of global markets and ministers—this is quintessential Newscast: calm, incisive, and not a little skeptical about official lines.

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