Newscast – Can We Afford To Keep The UK Safe?
BBC News, April 14, 2026

Episode Overview

This Newscast episode, hosted by Adam Fleming with contributions from Chris Mason (BBC Political Editor), Ben Chu (BBC Policy and Analysis Correspondent, Verify), and Helen Miller (Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies), dives into the intensifying debate around UK defence spending. Prompted by a hard-hitting speech from Lord George Robertson, former Labour Defence Secretary and ex-NATO Secretary General, the discussion unpacks the UK’s defensive readiness, the political and economic trade-offs at play, and the immediate and long-term fiscal pressures shaped by recent global conflicts—including the war in Iran and the ongoing fallout from the Ukraine war.

Key Points and Discussion Segments

Why Defence Spending is Dominating the Agenda

[03:43]

• Triggered by Lord Robertson’s lecture describing the Iran war as a “rude wake-up call" and asserting the UK is "underprepared, underinsured and under attack."
• Robertson explicitly accuses UK political leaders of “corrosive complacency.”
• He previously led a government defence review, which called for a Defence Investment Plan, yet to be published.

Quote:
“He says the UK is underprepared, underinsured and we are under attack. He says national Security and safety is in peril. And he accuses political leaders of corrosive complacency.”
– Chris Mason [04:29]

The Numbers: What is the UK Actually Spending?

[07:34] [09:15]

• Ben Chu outlines current and projected defence expenditure:
  • 2025: ~£70 billion (2.4% of GDP per NATO estimate).
  • Target: 2.5% of GDP by 2027, requiring an extra £6 billion.
  • Ambition: 3% of GDP by end of next Parliament—implies an additional £15 billion.
• Defence spending as a percentage of GDP, not government budget—so it’s a yardstick relative to the whole economy.

Quote:
“To get to that 2.5% target... it's about another £6 billion... To get to 3% would require roughly £15 billion extra on top of that.”
– Ben Chu [08:45]

The Trade-Offs: Defence versus Welfare (and Everything Else)

[10:02]

• Helen Miller underscores stark choices: Higher defence spending means either higher taxes or cuts elsewhere—most likely welfare or health, as they form the bulk of public spending.
• In the '80s, UK spent more on defence than working-age welfare; now, the trend is reversed (working-age welfare: ~4% GDP, defence: ~2.5%).

Quote:
“The scale of the numbers here is such that we shouldn’t think there’s an easy way through this. You have to make some real prioritisation...”
– Helen Miller [10:54]

Short-Term Budget Squeeze vs. Long-Term Modernisation

[12:02], [12:26]

• Ministry of Defence faces both immediate funding shortfalls and pressure for long-term investment.
• Specific “£28 billion gap” in MOD budget is not an official government figure, but a media-reported estimate of unmet funding needs over four years, due to inflation and rising costs.
• Highlights recurring arguments about MOD’s ability to deliver projects “on time and on budget”—a perennial Treasury concern.

Quote:
“Of 47 big spending projects that the Ministry of Defence had in 2024–25, 12 of them were rated red. And that meant appears to be unachievable.”
– Ben Chu [16:21]

The Political Dynamics Inside Government

[17:56]

• Typical “department vs. Treasury” wrangles, heightened by the urgency and scale of defence demands.
• Ultimately, both the Prime Minister and Chancellor must make decisions on the Defence Investment Plan.
• Other parties, possibly in future government, will have to make similar hard choices.

Quote:
“That has been the nature of Whitehall from the year dot… But… this speech from Lord Robertson is a sharpening of that argument...”
– Chris Mason [18:30]

The Big Economic Picture: The UK’s Shrinking Pie

[20:57]

• IMF’s Spring Economic Outlook downgraded UK growth forecasts more than most other countries, citing energy price shocks and sustained inflation.
• The UK’s high energy import dependence and preexisting inflationary issues exacerbate the difficulty.

Quote:
“It looks like, at least on the IMF projections, the UK is doing worse... We are, you know, we're a big energy importer. We are very reliant on gas. Gas prices are higher. Inflation was already pretty high...”
– Helen Miller [21:33]

• If economic stagnation persists, not only does the percentage of GDP matter less, but the actual purchasing power of defence resources shrinks.

Energy Shock and Living Standards

[26:14]

• International Energy Agency’s head, Fatih Birol, warns of “the world’s biggest energy shock in history.”
• Debate: Should the government subsidise energy to shield citizens/businesses or incentivise energy conservation (as IEA urges)?

Quote:
“The world is facing its biggest energy shock in history. Bigger than the 19... pretty much. So he's really sounding the warning.”
– Ben Chu [26:25]

• Helen Miller stresses that, regardless of government interventions, the UK is “poorer”—the question is simply by how much.
• She cautions against “panic,” but admits the losses may be structural, not just a temporary setback.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On government messaging:
  “Turns out that we were reversing back round [the corner], so it was strictly accurate. It’s just not the right direction.”
  – Adam Fleming, joking about optimistic ministerial soundbites [29:45]

• On future social support:
  “If this really is a permanently worse situation where prices are permanently higher, that's really bad news.”
  – Helen Miller [22:53]

• On political inertia:
  “Soon can be quite an elastic concept in politics.”
  – Chris Mason, about the Defence Investment Plan [05:43]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:23] – Introduction to the defence spending debate with Ben Chu and Helen Miller.
• [03:43] – Lord Robertson’s speech and its political implications.
• [07:34] – Data on UK defence spending (GDP percentages, targets, and context).
• [10:02] – The trade-offs at stake: welfare vs. defence.
• [12:26] – Immediate MOD budget pressures (“£28 billion” gap).
• [16:21] – MOD procurement struggles; National Audit Office report.
• [17:56] – Internal government disputes; Treasury control and wider political impact.
• [20:57] – IMF outlook and impact of Iran war on UK economy.
• [26:14] – International Energy Agency warnings and the reality of the energy shock.
• [29:45] – Closing thoughts on government messaging and public sentiment.

Tone & Language

The conversation strikes a measured, informed tone, balancing economic realities with political analysis and occasional jokes that lighten the weighty subject matter. There’s an undercurrent of urgency and realism, especially around Lord Robertson’s warnings, yet most contributors avoid sensationalism—favouring data, context, and cautious assessments.

Summary

This episode offers a comprehensive overview of the UK’s defence spending debate amid unprecedented global challenges. The discussion underscores the complexity of funding security in an era of economic strain, rising energy costs, and shifting geopolitical threats. Key takeaways include the magnitude of fiscal trade-offs, the risk of bureaucratic inertia, and the sobering recognition that the country faces a period of genuine, possibly enduring, national hardship—making the question not just whether the UK can afford to keep itself safe, but what it must sacrifice to do so.